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  • Global Potassium Reserves and Potassium Fertilizer Use

    Terry L. Roberts,President, IPNI

    Symposium Global Nutrient CyclingMonday, October 6, 2008

    2008 Joint Annual Meeting

  • Potassium (K) and Potash

    Kpresentinmostrocksandsoils

    Economicsources sedimentarysaltbedsremainingfromancientinlandseas(evaporitedeposits)

    saltlakesandnaturalbrines

    PotashreferstoavarietyofKbearingminerals

  • Common K Minerals

    Mineral Composition K2O,%

    Sylvite KCl 63.1

    Sylvinite KCl/NaClmixture ~28.0

    Carnallite KCl MgCl2 6H2O 17.0

    Kainite 4KCl 4MgSO4 11H2O 19.3

    Langbeinite K2SO4 2MgSO4 22.7

    Polyhalite K2SO4 2MgSO4 2CaSO4 H2O 15.6

    Niter KNO3 46.5

  • Common K Minerals

    Sylvite(KCl)abundantincommercialdeposits

    Sylvinite(KCl+NaCl)alsocommon

    HartsalzoredepositswithSO4 salts(kieserite[MgSO4]oranhydrite[CaSO4])arelimitedEurope

    LangbeiniteoccursNewMexicoandUkraine

    KCl

  • World Potash Reserves

    About100largeburieddeposits+100brinedepositsofcommercialpotential

    The world has an estimated 250 billion metric tons of K2O resources

    Source: U.S. Geological Survey

  • Potash Resources and Reserves

    Resourcesincludeproven,probable,andinferredreserves

    Reserves:depositsofsufficientquantityandqualitythatarecurrentlymined

    Reservebase:reserves+depositsthataremarginallyeconomicorsubeconomic

    U.S.GeologicalSurveyestimatesglobalreservesat18billiontK2O8.3billontconsideredcommerciallyexploitable.

    Source:U.S.GeologicalSurvey,MineralCommoditySummariesandPotash,January2008

  • Potash Reserves and Reserve Base

    ReserveBase,000tK2O

    Reserves,000tK2O

    Source:U.S.GeologicalSurvey,MineralCommoditySummariesandPotash,January2008

  • Potash Deposits North America

    WorldslargestreservesoccurinSaskatchewan

    Oreisexceptionallyhighgrade(2530%K2O)atdepthsof9501,100mincreasingto>3,500m

    Uniformthickness(2.43m)andmineralizationandnostructuraldeformations

    Sylvinite,somecarnallite,andclay

    Potash Reserves In Saskatchewan

    Source:PPIC1989

  • Potash Deposits FSU

    FSUhasextensiveprovenreservesofKmineralssecondonlytothedepositsinSaskatchewan

    Russia VerkhnekamskdepositintheUralsnearSolikamsk Potashdepthat75to450min13potentiallyminablebedsranginginthicknessfrom26to30m(sylvinite)and70to80m(zoneofsylvinitecarnallite).

    Minedbeds1.2to6mthickwith15%K2Owith3to5%insolubles

    Belarus Starobinskdepositis2nd largestinorebodyinFSUnearSoligorsk

    30potashbedsin4horizons.Mostmining350to620mdepthinsecondhorizon(1.8to4.4mthick)

    Sylviniteoreaveraging11%K2Oand5%insolubles

    Source:Searls2002,U.S.GeologicalSurvey,MineralsYearbook;Stone,2002,CanadianMineralsYearbook

  • Potash Deposits Western Europe

    OldestdepositsaretheHessenandThringenbedsinsouthernGermany

    contain15to20%sylvite,kieserite,andcarnallite(~10%K2O)

    Bedsarerelativelyflatlying,butalsofolding,withsomebarrenzones,suddenthicknesschanges,etc.makingminingdifficult

    AlsocarnalliteandkieseritedepositsincentralGermanyandsylviteandcarnalliteinnorthernGermany

    SylvitedepositsinEnglandandsylviniteinSpain

    Source:Searls2002,U.S.GeologicalSurvey,MineralsYearbook;Stone,2002,CanadianMineralsYearbook

  • Potash Deposits

    MiddleEast:KextractedfromDeadSea containsanestimated1billiontKCl

    LatinAmerica sylviniteandcarnalliteintheSergipebasininBrazil KNO3 inChileinAtacamaDesert(est.1billiontNaNO3 and100milliontKNO3)andSalardeAtacama,ahighattitudedrylake(brineest.at120milliontKCland80milliontK2SO4

    Asia:CarnalliteandKbearingbrinesinQinghaiandXinjiangProvinces

    UndevelopedDeposits

    Thailand,Argentina,AmazonBasininBrazil,Morocco,Poland,andadditionaldepositsintheFSU

    Source:U.S.GeologicalSurvey,MineralCommoditySummariesandPotash,January2008

  • Production of KCl and K2SO4, Mt

    Source:IFAStatistics

  • World Mine Production, 2007000 t K2O

    Source:IFAStatistics

  • Canada: potash export by destination in 2007, 000 t K2O

    4,501

    66

    From Canada

    1,900

    3,340

    580

    214

    Source:IFAProductionandTradeStatistics

  • Russia: potash export by destination in 2007, 000 t K2O

    344

    1,961

    1,896

    From Russia/Belarus

    1,059

    4,339

    Source:IFAProductionandTradeStatistics

    116

    78

  • Germany: potash export by destination in 2007, 000 t K2O

    670

    40

    From Germany

    109

    430

    126

    52

    1,515 92

    Source:IFAProductionandTradeStatistics

  • Israel/Jordan: potash export by destination in 2007, 000 t K2O

    353

    856

    From Israel/Jordan

    1,132

    137

    67

    14496

    3

    Source:IFAProductionandTradeStatistics

  • World Potash Production and Consumption,

    Mt K2O

    Source:IFAStatistics

  • Regional potash consumption,000 t K2O

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    6,000

    7,000

    8,000

    9,000

    10,000

    WesternandCentralEurope

    EasternandCentralAsia

    NorthAmerica

    LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

    Africa

    WestAsia

    SouthAsia

    EastAsia

    Oceania

    Source:IFAProductionandTradeStatistics

  • Potash consumption, 000 t K2O

    4countriesaccountedfortwothirdsofpotashimports US18%,Brazil16%,China21%,andIndia9%

    Source:IFAProductionandTradeStatistics

  • Global Fertilizer Consumption Forecaststo 2012/13 (Mt nutrients)

    N P2O5 K2O Total

    Ave.2005/06to2007/08(e)

    95.5 38.6 27.6 162.1

    2012/13 (f) 115.6 45.7 33.0 194.3

    Ave. AnnualChange

    +3.2% +2.8% +3.0% +3.1%

    Source:P.Heffer,2008.MediumTermOutlookforWorldAgricultureandFertilizerDemand2007/0820012/13.IFAAnnualConference,Vienna,Austria

  • Forecast Potash Demand Through 2012/13

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    % A

    ve. i

    ncre

    ase

    in p

    otas

    h us

    e% Average Annual Increase 2005/0607/08 vs. 2012/13

    Source:P.Heffer,2008.MediumTermOutlookforWorldAgricultureandFertilizerDemand2007/0820012/13.IFAAnnualConference,Vienna,Austria

  • World potash supply/demand balance

    15,000

    18,000

    21,000

    24,000

    27,000

    30,000

    33,000

    36,000

    39,000

    42,000

    45,000

    2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

    000

    t K

    2O

    Supply of potash

    Source:Prudhomme2008.GlobalFertilizersandRawMaterialsSupplyandSupply/DemandBalances20082012.IFAProductionandTrade

  • World potash supply/demand balance

    15,000

    18,000

    21,000

    24,000

    27,000

    30,000

    33,000

    36,000

    39,000

    42,000

    45,000

    2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

    000

    t K

    2O

    Supply of potash Available for fertilizer

    Source:Prudhomme2008.GlobalFertilizersandRawMaterialsSupplyandSupply/DemandBalances20082012.IFAProductionandTrade

  • World potash supply/demand balance

    15,000

    18,000

    21,000

    24,000

    27,000

    30,000

    33,000

    36,000

    39,000

    42,000

    45,000

    2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

    000

    t K

    2O

    Supply of potash Available for fertilizer Fertilizer Demand

    Source:Prudhomme2008.GlobalFertilizersandRawMaterialsSupplyandSupply/DemandBalances20082012.IFAProductionandTrade

  • World potash supply/demand balance

    Supply/demandbalanceisconsideredverytightandisexpectedtobesoforthenextfewyearstriggeredanincreaseinworldpotashprices

    100

    600

    500

    400

    300

    200

    2006 2007 2008

    J F M MA JJ S O N DA J F M MA JJ S O N DA J F M MA JJ A

    $/t f

    .o.b

    . Van

    couv

    er

    Potash prices, January 2006 September 2008

  • New Potash Capacity2008 to 2012

    Year MtK2O Country

    2008 0.0

    2009 0.84 Jordan,Russia,Israel,Canada,USA

    2010 1.02 Canada,Russia,Israel

    2011 1.14 Canada,Russia,Israel

    2012 4.74 Canada,Argentina,Belarus,Jordan

    Total 7.74

    Source:Prudhomme2008.GlobalFertilizersandRawMaterialsSupplyandSupply/DemandBalances20082012.IFAProductionandTrade

  • Tight supply/demand balance new interest in potash mining

    Saskatchewanistheworldslargestproducerwith37%ofsupplyand>50%ofglobalpotashreserves

    Nopotashexplorationpermitsissued15yearspriorto2004next3yearstheareaunderleaseincreasedfrom250,000to3millionhectares

    NewcompaniesBHPBilton,PotashOneInc.,PotashNorthResourceCorp.,AthabascaPotash,IvanyPotash,SidonInternationalResources,GrizzlyDiamondsLtd.,AlixResourcesCorp.,GeoMineralsLtd.,andJSCAcron

    Estimatedcapitalcostforaconventionalmine$2.8billion,excludinginfrastructureoutsidetheplantgateandwithnoproductionfor57years.

  • Why the increased demand for fertilizer?

    Increasedfooddemandandlesslandtoproduceit

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

    Population, billions

    0.00

    0.10

    0.20

    0.30

    0.40

    0.50

    0.60

    1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005

    Arable land per capita, ha

    Source:FAO

  • Why the increased demand for fertilizer?

    Dietsarechangingmoreprotein

    Requiresmorefeedgrainstoproduceprotein

    7kg/kgbeef, 4kg/kgpork,and 2kg/kgpoultry

    0102030405060708090

    1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

    Developed World Developing World

    Source:FAO

    Meat con

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