Global Trends 2014April 2015

Piotr Poznanski, President – The IWSR US

The leading source of  wine and spirits information

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Global Trends 2014

Global Alcohol Market

Category 2012 2013 CAGR  2008-13

% Change  2012-13

Mkt Share 2013

Beer 20,380,358 20,463,520 1.0% 0.4% 74.0%

Wine 3,482,665 3,507,648 2.1% 0.7% 12.7%

Spirits 3,084,939 3,092,148 4.8% 0.2% 11.2%

Mixed Drinks 348,181 371,358 3.9% 6.7% 1.3%

Cider 197,153 211,602 5.5% 7.3% 0.8%

All volumes 000’s 9-litre cases Source: The IWSR          

Africa & ME

100%

Asia Pacific

100%Europe

100%South America

100%

North America

100%

Share of Product Categories by Region - 2013

Source: The IWSR

100%100%

Premiumisation of the market

1998 2013

Spirits by quality

Source: The IWSR

Cross-Category Premiumisation

The Shift from West to East

Other Long-Term Trends

Concept of ‘Living well’

Female & Millennial consumers

Rise of the ‘global consumer’

Rise of own label & large retailer power

Flavour Trends Spiced Sweet Fruit

Other key trends• Resurgence of whisk(e)y

• Growing interest in malts

• Development of premium wine

• Rise of super-premium gin

• Move to lighter drinks

• Craft movement

• Innovation & category blur

Global Forecast 2014 – 2019

Forecasted volume growth 2013-2019

Beer: +1.1bn cases

Spirits: +154m cases

Wine: +135m cases

• Total volume growth: +1.5bn cases

Largest Spirits Markets – Global vs. Multinationals

Forecast — 10 largest spirits markets (2019)

Current concentration of multinationals’* spirits sales — 10 largest markets (2013) *Aggregate sales of Bacardi, Beam Suntory, Brown Forman, Campari, Diageo, Edrington, LVMH, Pernod Ricard, Remy Cointreau and Wm Grants

Source: The IWSR

Forecast – Global consumption by spirits category2013 F2019 CAGR  

2008-13CAGR  

2013-19 Vol. Change

1 National Spirits 1,414,127 1,466,551 9.4% 0.6% 52,424

2 Vodka 496,483 499,869 -1.1% 0.1% 3,386

3 National Whisky 201,608 269,901 10.9% 5.0% 68,294

4 Brandy 187,061 197,368 8.0% 0.9% 10,307

5 Flavoured Spirits 159,953 162,721 -0.2% 0.3% 2,768

6 Rum 145,713 132,737 1.7% -1.5% -12,976

7 Other Spirits 128,034 131,888 1.6% 0.5% 3,854

8 Scotch Whisky 96,209 108,541 1.3% 2.0% 12,332

9 Cane 110,129 105,206 -2.0% -0.8% -4,924

10 US Whiskey 36,950 48,475 4.6% 4.6% 11,525

11 Gin/Genever 49,249 46,006 -1.4% -1.1% -3,244

12 Tequila 26,697 31,527 3.0% 2.8% 4,830

13 Canadian Whisky 20,396 20,178 -0.5% -0.2% -218

14 Cognac/ Armagnac 12,609 14,514 1.2% 2.4% 1,905

15 Irish Whiskey 6,929 10,983 9.2% 8.0% 4,054

All volumes 000’s 9-litre cases Source: The IWSR        

US Whiskey Development

Quality 2013 F2019 CAGR  2008-­‐13

CAGR    2013-­‐19

Vol.  Change

Super Premium 896 2,068 16.3% 14.9% 1,171Premium 17,884 24,441 7.6% 5.3% 6,557Standard 13,639 17,510 2.5% 4.3% 3,871Value 4,526 4,447 -0.2% -0.3% -80

All volumes 000’s 9-litre cases Source: The IWSR        

Volu

me

(000

’s 9-

litre

cas

es)

0

7,500

15,000

22,500

30,000

2009 2011 2013 F2015 F2017 F2019

PremiumStandardValueSuper Premium

Global Consumption by Quality

Premium US Whiskey: 24.4m cases

+5.3% CAGR

Vodka – Regional Development

   CIS North Central NW Asia South Rest of Africa America Europe Europe America Europe

-9,000

-6,750

-4,500

-2,250

0

2,250

4,500

6,750

1174.51464.952267.352965.5

171.65

-2077.82

4605.25

-8187.2

Volume  (000’s  9-­‐litre  cases)

Volume growth 2013-2019

                                                                   Source: The IWSR        

• Vodka to stabilise as declines in CIS and Central Europe slow

• Top growth markets include US, Brazil and India  

USA spirits – 5 year forecast by category

Units: 000’s 9 litre cases                                                                

Source: The IWSR        

Volume Volume Volume VolumeCAGR

VolumeCAGR

Volume

Absolute Change

Volumes

Absolute Change

Volumes

Category 2008 2013 2014 2019 2008 to 2013

2014 to 2019

2008 to 2013 2014 to 2019

180,291.25 204,403.00 208,860.25 225,440.75 2.54% 1.54% 24,111.75 16,580.50

Vodka 55,281.00 70,725.00 71,960.00 75,790.00 5.05% 1.04% 15,444.00 3,830.00

Whisky 45,390.50 50,542.00 52,517.50 61,050.00 2.17% 3.06% 5,151.50 8,532.50

Flavoured Spirits 23,863.25 24,177.00 24,560.25 23,805.75 0.26% -0.62% 313.75 -754.50

Rum 22,755.00 23,150.00 23,025.00 23,785.00 0.34% 0.65% 395.00 760.00

Tequila 11,169.00 13,910.00 14,575.00 17,825.00 4.49% 4.11% 2,741.00 3,250.00

Brandy 10,545.50 10,460.00 10,581.50 11,232.50 -0.16% 1.20% -85.50 651.00

Gin / Genever 11,035.00 10,343.25 10,190.00 9,909.00 -1.29% -0.56% -691.75 -281.00

National Spirits 58.00 966.75 1,313.00 1,903.50 75.54% 7.71% 908.75 590.50

Cane 194.00 129.00 138.00 140.00 -7.84% 0.29% -65.00 2.00