global trends: drr and preparedness in context helsinki, april 13 th 2011
TRANSCRIPT
Global Trends: DRR and Preparedness in Context
Helsinki, April 13th 2011
The Big Picture
Where we spend HA...
SomaliaSudan
Zimbabwe
Palestinian Adm. A
reas
Lebanon
Liberia
Angola
Burundi
Chad
Congo, Dem. R
ep.
Sri Lanka
Ethiopia
Afghanistan
Kenya
Jordan
Indonesia Iraq
Serbia
Pakistan
Uganda0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
68 %
60 %
39 % 38 %
33 % 32 % 32 % 31 % 30 %28 %
22 % 21 %17 % 17 % 17 % 16 % 15 %
13 % 12 % 11 %US$
billi
on (c
onst
ant 2
008
price
s)
Hum
anita
rian
shar
e of
ODA
Iraq
Afghanistan
Viet Nam
Ethiopia
Tanzania
Pakistan
IndiaChina
Palestine/O
PT
Mozambique
Bangladesh
UgandaSudan
IndonesiaSerb
iaDRC
GhanaEgypt
ZambiaKenya
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
US$
mill
ion
(con
stan
t 200
8 pr
ices)
Where we spend ODA...
Aid is rising...
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
85.588.4 87.7 88.8
99.3
108.4 108.7111.7
125.7132.2
6.9 6.7 6.9 8.3 8.411.3 10.4 9.4 11.8 11.7
Total ODA excluding debt relief Total humanitarian aid
US$
billi
on (c
onst
ant 2
008
price
s)
...and donors have different priorities.
United St
ates
Irelan
d
EU In
stitutions
Swed
en
Finlan
d
Turke
y
Switz
erlan
d
Luxe
mbourg
Norway Ita
ly
United Kingd
om
Australi
a
New Ze
aland
Netherl
ands
Greece
Czech Rep
ublic
Denmark
Spain
Belgium
Canad
a0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
10 %
12 %
14 %
16 %
14.9%
13.8%13.4%
13.0% 12.9%12.6%12.4% 12.2%
11.5%11.3%
10.9%10.2%
9.3%9.0% 8.6% 8.5% 8.4% 8.2% 8.1% 7.9%
Shar
e of
tota
l ODA
spen
t on
hum
anita
rian
aid
since
200
0
Source: Development Initiatives based on OECD DAC, December 2010
The Funding Context
Donor governments under pressure...
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
United StatesJapanGermanyFranceUnited KingdomItalySpainCanadaAustraliaKorea
US$
billi
on (c
onst
ant 2
008
price
s)
GNI: Top 10 DAC donors
... and total aid doesn’t appear affected...
2006 2007 2008 20090
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
114.3 116.7
134.1 139.8
United StatesEU InstitutionsGermanyJapanUnited KingdomFranceNetherlandsSpainSwedenNorwayOthersUS
$ bi
llion
(con
stan
t 200
8 pr
ices)
... But figures mask individual changes...
AustraliaAustria
BelgiumCanada
DenmarkFinlandFrance
GermanyGreeceIreland
ItalyJapan
LuxembourgNetherlands
New ZealandNorwayPortugal
SpainSweden
SwitzerlandUnited Kingdom
United StatesEU Institutions
-1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Total ODATotal humanitarian aid
US$ billion change (2008-2009)
What are we responding to?
Fragility and Conflict
32 33 30 27 29
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Afghanistan Angola Burundi Cambodia Cameroon Central African Rep. Chad Comoros Congo Congo, Dem. Rep. Cote d'Ivoire Djibouti Eritrea Gambia Guinea Guinea Bissau Haiti kribati Lao Liberia Mauritania Nigeria Pakistan Papa New Guinea Sao Tome Sierra Leone Solomon Islands Sudan Tajikistan Timor Leste Togo Tonga Uzbekistan Vanatu Yemen Zimbabwe
Fragile states
Conflict affected
Fragile and conflict affected
And natural disasters...19
90
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,00029
6
272
232
266
256
277
272
324
362
414
528
450
505
420
402
486
462
450
393
387
383
No. of disasters No. of affected Cost of damage
No.
of a
ffec
ted
(mill
ions
)
US$
mill
ion
Source: CRED
And remains very concentrated.
Afghanistan
Palesti
ne/OPT
Iraq
DRCKen
yaHaiti
Nepal
Somalia
Chad
Yemen
Sierra
Leone
Tajik
istan
Mya
nmar CAR
Timor-L
este
Guinea
Eritre
a
Gambia
CongoTo
nga
Sao Tome a
nd Princip
e
Cote d'Iv
oire-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
-10 %
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
90 %
Humanitarian Development Humanitarian as % of total ODA
Source: OECD DAC and World Bank
Top Ten: 73% of ODA & HA
The Missing Money
Do we understand the full context of humanitarian aid? Globally?
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
5
10
15
20
25
30
1.9 2.6
4.45.2
3.4
6.05.1 5.1
7.1
9.710.0 10.3 10.8
12.9 13.6
18.0
20.021.5
26.6 26.3
Private contributions to delivery agencies Humanitarian aid from governments
UN peacekeeping missions Security-related ODA
UN CAP appeal funding
US$
billi
on
What about private contributions?
2006 2007 2008 200902468
1012141618
2.7 3.5 4.1 4.1
9.3 9.2
12.811.0
12.0 12.7
16.915.1
Private contributions to delivery agenciesGovernments
US$
bill
ion
Source: GHA Report 2010, Development Initiatives
...peacekeeping?
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
82.
4
2.8
2.4 2.5
3.5
5.1 5.2
5.6
7.0
7.4
7.2
Other UN missions
Lebanon (UNIFIL)
Liberia (UNMIL)
Sierra Leone (UNAMSIL)
Haiti (MINUSTAH)
DRC (MONUC)
Sudan (UNAMID)
Sudan (UNMIS)
Total (all UN peacekeep-ing operations)
US$
billi
on
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
16.8 17.717.7 18.7
23.0
41.047.5
63.1
Total aid Domestic public revenues Private resource flows Cost of military operations
US$
billi
on
Source: Afghanistan: tracking major resource flows 2002-2010, GHA Briefing Paper, Development Initiatives, January 2010
And the military? Afghanistan?
Money sent home?
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1.4%1.6%
1.8%2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9%
2.6% 2.6%
3.3%3.5% 3.6% 3.6%
3.7%
4.4%
3.9%
4.4%
All developing countries Fragile states
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
6.8 6.6 6.98.2 8.4
11.010.2
9.3
11.7 11.5
0.10.7
0.2
0.2 0.3
0.6
0.30.3
1.1
0.2
DAC donors Non-DAC donors
US$
billi
on
And a full range of donors.2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Korea Saudi
Arabia Korea Saudi Arabia Korea Saudi
ArabiaSaudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
53.9 656.7 94.5 59.2 118.1 115.9 131.1 212.5 727.2 51.8 255.9Saudi Arabia Korea Saudi
Arabia Kuwait UAE UAE UAE UAE UAE UAE Turkey11.7 68.8 28.8 27.2 101.4 99.8 43.8 45.1 110.6 35.3 60.9
China Taiwan South Africa Korea Saudi
Arabia Turkey Kuwait Korea Kuwait Kuwait Brazil6.0 1.0 19.8 26.6 35.1 78.7 24.2 30.3 95.6 34.2 39.6
Turkey Qatar Russia Russia Russia China Russia Turkey Russia Russia UAE
3.1 1.0 17.8 17.2 17.5 65.8 19.9 11.1 44.0 32.5 37.8
Romania China India Qatar Kuwait Qatar Korea Kuwait Korea India China
2.3 0.8 7.4 15.3 11.0 45.7 18.1 11 30.7 14.6 37.6
Indonesia
Colombia
Pakist
an
Bangla
desh
Leban
on
Sri La
nka
Angola
Iraq
Sudan
Kenya
Ethiopia
Tanzan
ia
Jordan
Uganda
Serb
ia
Congo, D
em. R
ep.
Chad
Sierra
Leone
Burundi
Liberi
a -
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
HA, 2000-2009 TOTAL ODA 2000-2009 GDP, 2009
US$
mill
ion
GDP
2009
, US$
mill
ion
... and domestic capacity
DRR and Preparedness: The Challenge of Counting
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
0 % 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 % 60 % 70 % 80 % 90 % 100 %
72010: Material relief assistance and services 72040: Emergency food aid
73010: Reconstruction relief and rehabilitation 72050: Relief co-ordination; protection and support services
74010 Disaster prevention and preparedness
Humanitarian Aid Breakdown according to the CRS 2004 -2009
Prevention and Preparedness
Amount spent on disaster prevention and preparedness (CRS)
Currently the purpose code for disaster risk reduction activities falls within the codes for humanitarian aid under Disaster prevention and preparedness (74010)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
6
70
41
99
333
455
Total HA on Disaster prevention and preparedness % of total HA on Disaster prevention and preparedness
US$
mill
ion
(con
stan
t 200
9 pr
ices)
% o
f tot
al H
A
Prevention and Preparedness
Recipients 2007
Bangladesh US$5.1m
Haiti US$3.8m
Pakistan US$3.1m
Bolivia US$2.6m
Philippines US$2.4m
Nepal US$2.3m
Sri Lanka US$1.8m
Peru US$1.8m
India US$1.8m
Viet Nam US$1.7m
Recipient s 2008
Bangladesh US19.6m
Indonesia US$ 11.7m
Dominican Republic US$9.6m
Kenya US$8.9m
Philippines US$7.4m
DRC US$7.4m
Ethiopia US$7.2m
Haiti US$6.1m
Sri Lanka US$5.6m
Mozambique US$4.5m
Recipients 2009
Bangladesh US$26.2m
Haiti US$20.7m
Indonesia US$17.1m
Philippines US$11.8m
Myanmar US$10.4m
India US$9.6m
Afghanistan US$8.7m
Bolivia US$6.5m
Pakistan US$6.4m
Peru US$6.4m
The Major Recipients...
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
US$0.6m US$0.9m US$5.1m
US$19.6mUS$26.2m
US$49.7m
US$15.4m
US$77m
US$184.3m
US$99.4m
Prevention and preparedness Total HA
Prevention and preparedness
26%
All other HA74%
2009
Bangladesh
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
US$0.6m US$1.4m US$3.8m US$6.3mUS$20.7m
US$172m
US$64m
US$40m
US$187m
US$142m
Disaster prevention and preparedness Total HA
Disaster prevention and preparedness
15%
All other HA85%
2009
Haiti
Donors 2007
EU Institutions US$24.7m
UNDP US$15m
United States US$13.7m
Spain US$13.4m
Canada US$6.6m
Sweden US$4.6m
Belgium US$4.1m
Ireland US$3m
Australia US$2.3m
Denmark US$1.7m
Donor 2008
EU Institutions US$97.2m
Japan US$41.6m
UK US$32.6m
United States US$29.9m
Spain US$22m
UNDP US$17.9m
Australia US$13.6m
Ireland US$13.1m
Canada US$13m
Germany US$11.2m
Donor 2009
EU Institutions US$77.3m
United States US$58.7m
UK US$53.3m
Japan US$45.6m
UNDP US$31.6m
Australia US$27.7m
Germany US$25.3m
Sweden US$22.5m
Norway US$21.9m
WFP US$21.6m
The donors...
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
0 % 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 % 60 % 70 % 80 % 90 % 100 %
Emergency/distress relief Reconstruction reliefRelief co-ordination; protection and support services Emergency food aidDisaster prevention and preparedness
2008 - 12% of total funding to prevention and preparedness
2009 - 10% of total funding to prevention and preparedness
Japan.
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
0 % 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 % 60 % 70 % 80 % 90 % 100 %
Emergency/distress relief Emergency food aid Reconstruction relief
Disaster prevention and preparedness Relief co-ordination; protection and support services
2008 - 28% of total funding to prevention and preparedness
2009 - 17% of total funding to prevention and preparedness
EC...
2008 DRR Funding0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
343
66
476
DRR coded HA DRR other HA codes DRR ODA
US$
mill
ion
EXAMPLES OF SEARCH TERMS
39 variations of search words coded in Macro
Unfortunately... Coding reveals much more.
Disaster prevention and preparedness
US$343m
Government and Civil Society, US$127m
Environmental protection, US$122m
Humanitarian otherUS$66m
Industry, US$37m
Trade policy and regula-tions, US$35m
Health, US$34m
Education, US$21m
Social Infrastucture and services, US$16m
Water Supply and Sanita-tion, US$15m
Transport and storage, US$15m
Business and other services, US$13m Communications, US$12m Forestry , US$10mAgriculture, US$7mConflict prevention and resloution, peace
and Security, US$6mOther, US$6mRecipients of disaster risk reduction within
development fundingBangladesh
US$198mGhana
US$98mIndia
US$15mViet Nam US11mKenya US$6m
Donors of disaster risk reduction within development funding
IDA US$97m
Japan US$42m
Canada US$33m
Germany US$30m
UK US$22m
Tracking much more complicated
0
50
100
150
200
250
46
17
169
HA - Disaster Prevention and preparedness DRR other HA
DRR Development Aid (elements of DRR)
US$m
HA - Disaster Prevention and preparedness,
US$46m
DRR other HA US$17m
Flood prevention/control, US$100m
River development, US$25m
Biosphere protec-tion, US$20m
Water resources protection,
US$18m
Sme development, US$4m
Water supply & sanitation, US$1m Road transport, US$0.5m Forestry policy & admin.
management, US$0.5m
Japan 2009
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
26
1
10
Disaster prevention and preparedness Other HADRR Development Aid (elements of DRR)
US$m
Disaster prevention and preparedness
Other HA
Envi-ronmen-tal edu-cation/training
Bio-diver-
sity
Agricul-tural
inputs
Environmental policy and admin. mgmt Biosphere protection Agricultural developmentFlood prevention/controlAll other
Bangladesh 2009
Australia
Canada
Denmark
EU Institutions
GEF
Germany
Ireland
Italy
Korea
Luxembourg
Norway
Sweden
Switzerland
UNDP
UNICEF
United Kingdom
United States
WFP
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Agricultural development
Agricultural inputs
Bio-diversity
Biosphere protection
Disaster prevention and pre-paredness
Emergency/distress relief
Environmental education/training
Environmental policy and admin. mgmt
Environmental research
Fishing policy and admin. man-agement
Flood prevention/control
Forestry policy & admin. man-agement
Medical research
Reconstruction relief
Social/welfare services
Donors...
HA Prevention and Preparedness Delivery US$ m
NATIONAL NGOs 7.3
United Nations Development Programme 2.8
NGOs and civil society 2.7
UNDP (Direct Execution) 1.7
National Execution 0.8
GTZ 0.7
PUBLIC SECTOR (donor, recipient, other) 0.6
Institute of water modelling 0.4
LOCAL/REGIONAL NGOs 0.2
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission 0.2
Action Aid 0.1
KOICA 0.1
OTHER 0.1
(blank) 8.5
Development Delivery US$m
AsDB - Asian Development Bank 1.71
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development
1.59
OTHER 0.79
UNDP 0.62
INTERNATIONAL NGOs 0.24
Non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and civil society
0.23
PUBLIC SECTOR (donor, recipient, other) 0.21
International Institute for Environment and Development
0.16
International Union for the Conservation of Nature 0.14
BCAS - Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies 0.12
Bangladesh Environmental Lawyers Association 0.05
Middlesex University Higher Education Corporation
0.03
CARE Canada 0.01
(blank) 3.80
Complicated field of actors and/or bad reporting/coding?
DRR Tracking Conclusions• Data is the enemy... Should be on our side.• Semantics obscure and confuse• Cluttered world of institutions and actors• Financing unsure... Has the case been
made?• DRR as a tool to better link our various
approaches... Artificial distinctions.• Confused?
Needs, equity, choice and prioritisation?
Humanitarian needs are still going up...
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
2
4
6
8
10
12
1.1 1.4
34
2.2
43.5 3.7
5.1
6.9 7.1
0.81.1
1.4
1.3
1.2
2
1.7 1.4
2
2.8
4.2
1.92.5
4.4
5.3
3.4
6
5.2 5.1
7.1
9.7
11.3
Unmet Needs (US$bn)Appeal Funding (US$bn)Total
UN CAP
2000-2002 2005-2007 2009600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
833 848
1023
mill
ions
... the number of undernourished is going up
Source: FAO
Day 1 Day 5 Day 10
Day 15
Day 20
Day 25
Day 30
Day 35
Day 40
Day 45
Day 50
Day 55
Day 60
Day 65
Day 70
Day 75
Day 80
Day 85
Day 90
Day 95
Day 100
Day 105
Day 110
Day 115
Day 117
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Pakistan Floods (30 July) 2010 Haiti Earthquake (12 January) 2010South Asia Earthquake (8 October) 2005 Asia Tsunami (24 December) 2004
Us$
billi
on
Day by day?
Over time?
Sudan
Palesti
nian Adm. A
reas
Afghan
istan Ira
q
Ethiopia
Congo, D
em. R
ep.
Somali
a
Pakist
an
Indonesia
Leban
onKen
yaSe
rbia
Uganda
Zimbab
we
Sri La
nka
Angola
Jordan
Burundi
ChadLib
eria
-1,000
1,000
3,000
5,000
7,000
9,000
11,000
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
Humanitarian Humanitarian as % of total ODA
... Do we make the right choices?
We work to provide access to reliable, transparent and understandable information so that we can all work to ensure better outcomes for people affected by humanitarian crises.
Global Humanitarian Assistance is a Development Initiatives programme, funded by the governments of Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom
Clarity Counts.
Name: Jan Kellett
Email: [email protected]
Tel: +44 (0)1749 671343
Web: globalhumanitarianassistance.org
Global Humanitarian Assistance, Development Initiatives, Keward Court, Jocelyn Drive, Wells, Somerset, BA5 1DB, UK