global trends of 2015 and forecasts for 2016

7/26/2019 Global Trends of 2015 and Forecasts for 2016

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GLOBAL TRENDS OF 2015 AND FORECASTS FOR 2016

Introduction

Katehon think tank ofers you a geopolitical analysis o the major trends in world politics or 2015 and

orecasts or 2016. The reports are prepared y Katehon!s e"pert group# ased on pulicly a$ailale dataand classi%ed inormation that is at our disposal. &ll conclusions are proailistic and predicti$e in

nature.

About us

Katehon think tank is an independent organi'ation consisting o an international network o people# rom

a wide $ariety o %elds and disciplines# who speciali'e in geopolitical# geostrategic and political analysis o

world e$ents. The group consists o political thinkers# international relations ()*+ researchers# e"perts in

security and counter,terrorism# and journalists concerned with international afairs# geopolitics# ethno,

politics and inter,religious dialogue.

Katehon!s representati$es are strong supporters o a multipolar world# and thus deend the right toe"press diferent $iews on international relations and the alance o power in the world. )n preparing the

reports# the authors adhere to the principles o the continentalism school o geopolitics.

Katehon think tank adheres to the position o engaged geopolitics. -e reali'e that geopolitics as it is can

either e &tlantist or continental. Thereore# in our studies# we are %rst attracted to the continental

geopolitical pole!s interests that afect the structure o the study and the nature o the issues under

consideration.

Table of content

EuropeMigrants — — The increasing of the popularity of right-wing parties — Euroscepticism —The rise and the fall of “left” — Regionalism — The rising control of NATO in EuropeMontenegro case — !"#$ results — Migrants in Europe “clash of ci%ili&ations” — The growthof the popularity of right-wing anti-system forces — Eurosceptisism — The crisis of leftforces — Regionalism NATO and its attempts of reinforcement of its positions in Europe —— !"#( the ma)or trend

EurasiaEurasian Economic *nion — Russia in !"#( — +elarus — *,raine — Moldo%a —a&a,hstan — yrgy&stan — Tur,menistan — *&.e,istan — /eorgia — Armenia —0onclusions

Islamic World0i%il war in 1yria — 0i%il war in 2ra3 — The phenomenon of 2121 — 2ran — Tur,ey — 1audi

Ara.ia — 4ar in 5emen — 6alestine — Egypt — 0i%il war in 7i.ya — Afghanistan —6a,istan — 1yria — 2ra3 — 2121 — Tur,ey — 5emen — 1audi Ara.ia — 0ountries of

6ersian /ulf — Egypt — 6alestine — 2ran — 7i.ya — Maghre. — Afghanistan — 6a,istan

ChinaRegional /eopolitics — Eurasian 6ro)ects — Economy — 8ome 6olicy — 0hina9s Military6ower — 2nternet and the 0hinese Role — 0onclusions

India6olitical 8induism — 0ompeting with 0hina — 1trengthening cooperation with Russia —Regional /eopolitics — Attention to :iaspora — 6olitical pro.lems at home — !"#(;orecast — 2ntensi<cation of Russian-2ndian relations — Relations with 0hina — ;ight for2ndian Ocean — Afghanistan — 6a,istan — Threat of color re%olution — 1eparatistscenario — 0on=icts at the .orders

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Sub-Saharan Africa1trengthening 0hinese 2n=uence — 8orn of Africa region — 1udan and Eritrea in 5emenwar — ;rench 4est Africa — Nigeria — :emocratic Repu.lic of 0ongo — +urundi 0risis —0on=ict in 0entral African Repu.lic — 1outh Africa — ;ight for 1udan and Eritrea .etween0hina and 4ahha.i /ulf monarchies — 0on=ict .etween Ethiopia and Eritrea> and in:)i.outi — Relati%e con=ict normali&ation in 1udan — 1omalia — 1ahel :esta.ili&ation —Nigeria 4ar on Three ;ronts — The 0oup d?Etat and the :R0 0on=ict — 0on=ict in +urundi —

0on=ict in 0entral African Repu.lic — A change of successors — 0olor Re%olution Attempt in1outh Africa

South-Eastern Asia and PacicThe .ig choice *1 or 0hina@ — Trans-6aci<c 6artnership — Elections in 1ingapore the successof the 0onser%ati%es — Elections in Myanmar the %ictory of the li.erals — The militari&ation of the region — apan militari&ation and nationalism — Radical 2slam in 2ndonesia and the6hilippines — Migration crisis — Australia — The dichotomy of 0hina-*1 — The militari&ationof the region — Asian 2nfrastructure 2n%estment +an, — 1trengthening of radical 2slamism —Migration crisis — The Repu.lican trend in Australia and New Bealand

USA:egradation of hegemony — :elaying the <nal crisis — New sources of insta.ility —Relations with the European *nion — Trans-6aci<c 6artnership — ;ailed elites — Middle

Americans against li.eral elites — ;ailures in domestic and foreign policy — The new president — The continuity of the course — Middle class against glo.al elite

Afterword

Europe

20! "rendsMigrants2015 was an e"tremely hard year or urope/ the unstale situation in the )slamic world# especially in

yria# turned the uropean continent into a chaos# where more than 1 million migrants entered urope.

The immigration policy o the uropean nion rejects# at its oundation# any orm o collecti$e identity.

This has caused the intensi%cation o ethno,social conicts. &s a result o this migration# politics in

urope has changed as it has ecome populated y ethno,social groups o migrants rom the 3iddle

ast# who are in act the earers o an archaic and stale )slamic consciousness# which is not known y

the a$erage uropean.

The e"aggerated principles o tolerance# rights o indi$idualism and multiculturalism# re4uires that the

uropean political elites gi$e to migrants the ma"imum lierties and do not re4uire anything in return. &s

the result o this migration policy in the in 2015/ 1+ the alance etween the nati$e uropeans and

migrants was roken 2+ the giant socio,cultural pole o an )slamo,&raic population was created ( the

act o its e"istence is ully ignored y lieral uropean elites# ecause o the asence o the criteria o acollecti$e identity in modern uropean law and politics+ + the nutrient medium or the creation o the

structures o radical )slamism were created (among the migrants were memers o radical )slamic

groups+.

Two model e"amples o the 7clash o ci$ili'ations7 in 2015 were the 8aris attacks in 9o$emer# and the

mass se",attacks in :ologne. The ;<rench =>11? was the largest tragedy in all o <rench history# and the

8aris attack was one o the iggest attacks in 8aris since --)). 9ew year@s e$e in :ologne showed to all

the diference in gender consciousness etween uropean and )slamic cultures# and showed that there is











a cogniti$e dissonance regarding )slamic society (with rigid model o patriarchy+# in contrast to its own

uid gender politics# which is predominant in urope.

The only country that was truly putting into efect an anti,migration policy was Aungary. The prime,

minister o Aungary# Bictor Cran# practically oretold the social e"plosion in resulting rom migrants#

and was the %rst among the uropean leaders to appeal to close the orders (the protecting apron wascreated on the order o Aungary with eria+.

The ways of illegal migration in Europe

)n many uropean countries# the anti,migration political positions egan to ecome stronger and it also

caused much criticism towards the immigration policies o Drussels.

The increasing of the popularity of right-wing parties)n 2015# right,wing parties in urope started to gain an increasing numer o $otes and popularity/ The

9ational <ront in <rance# 8E)F& and &lternati$e or Eermany in Eermany# the <reedom party o &ustria#

Gega 9ord in )taly# Eolden Fawn in Ereece.

The %rst round o regional elections in <rance showed that the 9ational <ront ecame not only a

legitimate party# ut also achie$ed a etter legal standing.

The results of the #st round of regional elections

These results were shocking or oth let and right wing parties. The <rench socialist prime, minister

3anuel Balls declared the necessity o creating a united ront against the 9ational <ront. )t was not

oHcially created ater the 1st round o elections (arko'y has reused to collaorate with let orces+# ut

this ront worked out.

&n ad,hoc alliance was initiated y the socialist party# who withdrew their candidates rom se$eral

regions# where the 9ational <ront had good results in the %rst round o elections. -ith the withdrawal o

their candidates# the group o people who $oted or socialist party then $oted the *epulican 8arty. The

common enemy united the lieral let and lieral right.

The 9ational <ront# despite the results o the 2nd round# is one o the most popular political parties in

<rance. The results o the 1st round showed the political will and preerences o <rench people. The 2nd



round is a result o lieral ;democratic? strategies# which included a massi$e media war against 3arine Ge

8en and the 79ational <ront7. )t!s e$ident that i the popularity o the 79ational <ront7 grows consistently#

it can afect the results o the presidential elections in 201I.

)n Eermany# the right,wing party 8E)F& ecomes more and more popular# more than thirty,thousand

people participated in anti,migrant 8E)F& demonstrations. The other right,centrist party ;&lternati$e orEermany? ecomes powerul. )n 201J# it had taken aout 10 in the uro,8arliament elections. The

political program o the party includes a criticism o the lieral pro,&merican hegemony o Drussels# and

has a classic urosceptic dimension. The popularity o the party is increasing headily# and it will e clearly

seen in the results o the march regional elections in 2016.

EuroscepticismCne o the trends o 2015 was the reinorcement o the urosceptic parties in urope/ The national <ront#

the &lternati$e or Eermany# the <reedom party o &ustria# the Gega 9ord# K)8# Loik# and the Fanish

8eople@s 8arty. Cn the 16th o Lune 2015# a coalition o anti, parties ;urope o nations and reedom?

was created.

Top anti-E* parties in !"#C

The rise and the fall of “left”)n 2015# the Get had gained the incredily strong positions ( especially in Ereece at the end o Lune M

when the 7CN)7 e$ents had taken place and the popularity o Tsipras was incredily high. )t was the %rst

time since the collapse o the o$iet nion when let orces had achie$ed such a le$el o legitimacy. There

was O*OP& in Ereece# the increasing popularity o 8CF3C in pain# ;:in4ue telli? mo$ement in )taly.

)n 2015 (especially the eginning o the year+ had shown the incredile success o let political anti,

system and anti,lieral orces.

Dut ater coming close to the power# they demonstrated the impossiility o proposing an alternati$e to

lieral politics# which was the main point o their critics. &s a result# y the end o the year they had lost

their political inuence and people!s con%dence. The hopes were not reali'ed.

Regionalism

2015 was a year or the rise o regionalism in urope. The region# that is %ghting the hardest to gainindependence is :atalonia# which is %ghting or its so$ereignty rom pain. )n eptemer o 2015# the

coalition o regional separatists won in the elections to the regional parliament. (62 places out o 15+. )n

9o$emer# the parliament o :atalonia accepted the resolution o independence o :atalonia rom pain

(according to the resolution# within 1Q months :atalonia will secede rom pain# during this 1Q months

the necessary go$ernment structures o a new state will e created in :atalonia and a new constitution

will e written+.

The other uropean region with secessionist acti$ity# %ghting or its independence# is cotland. Dut

ultimately the results o the reerendum in 201J in cotland showed out that 55 o cottish people

preer to stay a part o K.

)n )taly the ;Gega 9ord? party# since 1==J# has een %ghting or the independence o the north regions

rom the southern ones.

Cne o the e"amples o regionalist tendencies was the results o <rench regional elections# where:orsican nationalists in :orsica gained ground.

The rising control of NATO in Europe Montenegro caseCn the 2nd o Fecemer# 3ontenegro recei$ed an oHcial in$itation to join 9&TC. The path to joining

9&TC is carried out y the pro,&merican prime,minister o 3ontenegro# 3ilo Fjukano$ich# who is well

known y his relationship with the international criminal community# especially with the )talian ma%a.

The possiility o joining the 9&TC lock pro$oked a series o anti,Fjukano$ich protests in the capital o

3ontenegro. Dut despite the mass,protests# Fjukano$ich didn!t stop the process joining the 9&TC lock#

ignoring the people!s preerences.



!"#$ results2015 rought the possiility o ci$il war in urope e$en closer# the internal conicts and contradictions

sharpened# the 4uantity o international dissent increased# the split etween uropean people!s

interests and political elites@ interests widened.

urope grew closer to the start o a ci$il war.

20# $orecastMigrants in Europe “clash of ci%ili&ations”The immigrant policy o the uropean nion will not change its undamentals (the principle o tolerance+.

The 4uantity o migrants will only continue to increase.

)n 2016# international dissent will ecome more widespread. &cti$ists o radical )slamic groups will try to

make new terrorist attacks# possily with the use o iological warare. urope will slowly descend into

chaos and will approach the eginning o a ci$il war . The reali'ation o a yria, scenario in urope is

possile.

The growth of the popularity of right-wing anti-system forces)n 2016# right,wing anti,system parties o urope will ecome increasingly popular. The %rst round o

regional elections showed out that the 9ational <ront ecame not only the legitimate party# ut also

achie$ed greater legal standing and ecame a real competitor or oth ocialists and *epulicans. The

pro,system lieral orces o oth let and right will toughen up the political war against 3arine Ge 8en

and will unite in a anti,9ational <ront lock. This coalition will do e$erything to discredit the 9ational

<ront eore the president elections in 201I. )t!s e$ident that the 9ational <ront in 2016 will e

considered y <rench political elites as a threat to the lieral system. &t the same time# the 9ational <ront

will try to unite the est sides o the let economic program and right politics (conser$atism# anti,

migration# traditionalism+.

The *epulican party will try to ecome popular with the anti,migration agenda.

)n Eermany the growth o the popularity o 8E)F& is e"pected as well as the growth o the ;&lternati$e

or Eermany?. The ;&lternati$e or Eermany? can possily score a $ictory in se$eral regions o Eermany

during the march regional elections o 2016. The political mood o Eerman politics will lead towards

urosceptisism and nationalism.

)n )taly the increasing growth o popularity is e"pected or the ;Gega 9ord? party# which will try to %nd away o collaoration with Derlusconi. The consolidation o right parties is also e"pected. The popularity o

al$ini will e high# especially ecause o his anti,&merican and pro,*ussian position. Ais inuence will

increase in the southern regions o )taly.

)n 8oland# the right,lieral,conser$ati$e tendencies will dominate (the party :i$ic 8latorm+# )n Aungary

the consolidation o right powers is e"pected along with the urther reinorcement o nationalist

mo$ements (such as Loik+.

EurosceptisismThe urosceptic mood will not stop. The immigration policy o the uropean nion has shown the

impossiility o regulating inter,ci$ili'ational conicts# and made the terrorist attacks in 8aris and se"

attacks in :ologne possile.

)n <eruary 2016# the K will re$ise the conditions o its memership with uropean nion (the re$ision

o the uro as the only currency in # the decline o participating in the programs o %nancial help to thecountries o uro'one# the diminution o the e"cessi$e regulation o the economics y # the re$ision in

the domain o aid to migrants+. & reerendum aout memership in the will e reali'ed eore the

end o 201I.

The )talian go$ernment will alance etween the politics o Drussels and proper economic interests (the

partial elimination o sanctions against *ussia+. The urosceptic trends will e set y right,wing

conser$ati$e parties.

The will switly lose trust and political inuence.



The crisis of left forcesThe Ereek prime,minister &le"is Tsipras and his let,wing go$ernment will not e ale to sol$e the

economic and social prolems o Ereece. Tsipras can!t any longer e a true let politician# he is not ale

to hold to his electoral campaign promises and pro$ide or the social system. )n the current tough

economic situation# under close super$ision o Drussels# let,wing ideas cannot e reali'ed. The

increasing dissatisaction with the letist orces will cause a lot o large,scale protests in Ereece.

&t the same time# during the loss o the legitimacy o let,wing parties# the position o right,wing partieswill ecome stronger. The interesting phenomena is that the right,wing parties in Ereece and moreo$er

in urope will e"ploit the let economic program (it!s possile that Eolden Fawn will start to ecome

more let in its economic doctrine+.

)n urope in 2016# many right wing parties will ecome let in their economic program. The rigid model o

di$iding the parties into let and right wing will ail.

;Today# the split in <rance M is not the split etween the let and right political parties# ut is the split

etween patriots and mondialists#? said 3arine Ge 8en# Fecemer 1th 2015# in a speech ater the

announcement o results o the second round o elections.

RegionalismThe separatist moods in urope will ecome stronger. The acti$e %ght or the independence will e held

y :atalonia# :orsica# and also cotland.

NATO and its attempts of reinforcement of its positions in Europe

9&TC will continue its politics o reinorcement o its control in the uropean continent. The possile3ontenegrin alliance with 9&TC will play a symolic role or the 3ontenegrin people/ it will symoli'e a

sort o pressure on the historical consciousness o the nation. The majority o 3ontenegrin people still

rememer the oming o Ougosla$ia in 1===. The $iolent joining o 3ontenegro to the 9&TC lock is

eing done y 9&TC to reak the mentality o 3ontenegrins# y creating a type o tockholm syndrome

and preparing the urther joining o eria into 9&TC lock.



!"#' the ma(or trend The major tendency in 2016 will e the eginnings o a ci$il war in urope. The internal political prolems

and conicts will increase headily. The split etween the lieral political elites and uropean nations will

enlarge. The speed and the dimensions o e$ents will increase sweepingly (among them# terrorist acts#

murders# etc.+. -e can predict the date when a ci$il war in urope will egin i we can analy'e the speed

and the dimensions o uropean e$ents in 2016.

Eurasia

-hen we say urasia# we don!t mean the continent# ut the ormer o$iet nion geopolitical space# which

unites *ussia# Delarus# kraine# 3oldo$a# outh :aucasus and :entral &sia. &lthough some o them aren!t

related to the urasian integration project# and some o them are e$en against it# somehow# all the

ormer o$iet repulics are in the $icinity and under the inuence o the *ussian <ederation# who is a key

player in this process.

&ter the conict etween *ussia and Eeorgia in &ugust 200Q# the current president Fmitry 3ed$ede$

said that *ussia had a special interest area that e"tended to the :) countries. The -est rushed to accuse

3oscow o imperial amitions# while the Kremlin said that e$ery country had its own national interests

that weren!t limited y their oundaries. )t predetermined the urthering o *ussia!s and the -est!spolitical aspirations# and the %nal priorities were set up ater the political crisis in kraine in 201# which

ended in a coup d!etat in <eruary 201J with the and !s %nancial and diplomatic support. <urther

de$elopments led to a reerendum in the :rimean &utonomous *epulic# where the reunion with *ussia

was decided# the armed conict in the southeast o kraine and the creation o unrecognised Fonetsk

and Gugansk 8eople@s *epulic.

)n 2015# *ussia strengthened its position in :rimea# deploying additional troops there. The ridge linking

the peninsula with the Krasnodar region was uilt $ery 4uickly# which# at the end o 2015# launched the

%rst ranch o power.



The Gugansk and Fonetsk *epulics consistently recei$ed humanitarian aid rom *ussia. The country

didn!t take any military,political steps# perorming instead as the mediator in $arious negotiations with

Kie$.

The -est used the krainian crisis or its own purposes# including reducing the $ector o urasian

integration. Aowe$er# the deterioration o the relations etween 3oscow and Kie$ will not afect the

oundation o the urasian conomic nion# although it orced some :) countries not to rush in making

the decision to join the union.

Eurasian Economic Union)n Cctoer 2011# Bladimir 8utin announced the eginning o the urasian integration process# which

recei$ed a ner$ous reaction rom the ecretary o tate Aillary :linton# saying that *ussia is trying to

re$i$e the o$iet nion. The documents on entering the urasian conomic nion were signed in 201J y

*ussia# Ka'akhstan# &rmenia and Delarus. Gater Kyrgy'stan joined it. Cn Lanuary 1# 2015# the & started

oHcially perorming# the customs and order arriers were eliminated# with a uni%ed laor law# the

united standards o products and ser$ices ring created.

:urrently the memer,states occupy 1J o the world@s land area with 1Q2.5 million people. Tajikistan is

a candidate to e accepted to the &. 3any countries show their interest in the project# which

originally was economic in its nature# ut# ne$ertheless# it o$iously has geopolitical importance. The

coup d@etat in kraine was held under the slogan to aandon the urasian integration and to enter the and 9&TC. &lthough Delarus took an amiguous position in the krainian crisis and ofered the

mediator role (as a result the 3insk talks were held there+# the rati%cation o all & documents was

held according to the plan. &ll memers o the association regularly came to the planned e$ents to

continue work on the economic# %nancial# trade# customs# energy and inrastructure policy.

)n addition# the &: memer,states may enter into agreements with common projects that are also

implemented on the continent. &t the :C and D*): summit in Luly 2015 in a (*ussia+# it was stated

that the 9ew ilk *oad project# ofered y :hina to :entral &sia# would e united with the urasian

conomic nion project. The %rst round o negotiations etween the and :hina to unite the &:

and the ilk *oad is to e held in early 2016.

3ost likely# the initial phase is to discuss the creation o the ree trade 'ones and the special economic

cooperation regime. :hina is interested in e"panding the market o its goods and ser$ices# as well as the

promotion o the transport corridor to the orders (it can e done through cooperation with the

&# as Ka'akhstan and Kyrgy'stan ha$e common orders with :hina# and *ussia and Delarus with the

countries+.

The ummits o the :ollecti$e ecurity Treaty Crgani'ation (:TC+ and the upreme urasian conomic

:ouncil (:+ were held in 3oscow in Fecemer 2015. The :TC rings together all the countries o the

&:# so in the near uture the close coordination etween the two organi'ations is possile.

The $arious project integration ideas will e also increasingly noted in the leading political grounds. )n

Fecemer 2015 the 8resident o Kyrgy'stan &lma'ek &tamaye$ said that the hanghai :ooperation

Crgani'ation and the urasian conomic nion must de$elop close interaction# and# in the uture# they

could e united into one organi'ation.

Fespite the speculations on the possile & e"tension# it is hard to e"pect new memer accession in2016# e"cept Tajikistan. &ccording to &'eraijani <oreign 3inister lmar 3ammadyaro$# in the near

uture# the country doesn!t plan to join the &# as it didn!t recei$e any ofers rom the respecti$e

memer,states. 'ekistan is also in no hurry to join the project.

&t the eginning o 2016# the & :ustoms :ode is to appear# and then# on the asis o the practical

results o the work on the new customs rules# the other countries could e"press their interests in joining

the organi'ation. Aowe$er# the rati%cation and# thereore# the start o the new code is e"pected only y

the end o the year.



%ussia in 20#)n 2016# the issue o pre$enting the re,e"port o the products prohiited or importation into the *ussian

<ederation through the & memers! territory will remain urgent or *ussia. 8rimarily# it is the

4uestion o ood goods. )n 201J# in connection with the situation in kraine# the uropean nion and the

nited tates imposed sanctions on entire *ussian economy sectors. )n response# *ussia limited ood

imports rom the & and the memer,states# :anada# &ustralia and 9orway. Aowe$er# according to

some inormation# such goods continue to arri$e in the *ussian <ederation through Delarus# or e"ample.The prolem o terrorism and e"tremism e"port in *ussian will remain at the high le$el. )n Fecemer

2015# a numer o laws that empower the security ser$ices were adopted# and the %$e coastal regions

organi'ed operational counter,terrorism centers. The ollowing year# the trend to strengthen security will

remain# although the risk o indi$idual terrorist acts will still high too.

eptemer 1Q# 2016 the *ussian parliamentary elections will take place. nlike pre$ious years# hal o the

deputies o the tate Fuma will e elected directly. This will e a serious test or the ruling party the

nited *ussia# which was recently critici'ed or ailing to sol$e social prolems# corruption and adoption

o laws unclear to the population.

The & and the -est are most concerned aout the state o the *ussian economy# as ination and

stagnation can cause social discontent# which will e used y -ashington and Drussels or their own

political interests. )t is unlikely that we can e"pect large,scale protests# such as the Gierals -hite *ion

3o$ement# whether it is or economic reasons or dissatisaction with the results o the parliamentaryelections. The rule de$aluation will not e as sharp as at the end o 201J. )n addition# the projected

gradual increase in oil prices# and rising gas prices# can supplement the *ussian <ederation udget.

ince the & and the has no urther understanding o the Kremlin# they will e an"ious to see i

*ussia will make some strategic surprises in 2016. *ussian troops in yria# and especially the use o new

weapon types# such as the :or$ette cruise missiles# were unpleasant surprises to the -est. The &

ailed to reak the Kremlin neither y economic sanctions nor y indirect action through its partners. The

pro$ocation o the *ussian omer shoot down in yria# which was initiated y the ! agents# didn!t lead

to a direct military conict etween *ussia and Turkey. &merica was unale to undermine the *ussian

arms e"ports on the world market. ome uropean countries ound that the nited tates continued

intensi$e cooperation with *ussia in a numer o sectors# which caused the conusion and understanding

that -ashington misled them so that they could take this opportunity themsel$es.

)n the international arena# *ussia will continue to deepen cooperation with its close partners in the :C

and the D*):. There are prospects or a reakthrough in se$eral areas with the )slamic *epulic o )ran#

which can compensate or the agricultural products import rom countries under 3oscow@s sanctions.

*ussia will also e acti$e in the )slamic world# especially in &ra countries# as the military action in yria

pushes them to do it.

)t will also continue to search or new markets or *ussian products# raw materials and ser$ices in the

&sia,8aci%c region# &rica and Gatin &merica.

The *ussian,krainian relations at the political le$el should not e"pect a reakthrough. *ussia chose a

strategy o krainian e"haustion# whose economy is close to collapse. Kie$ is insol$ent# dependent on

*ussian energy resources and mutual sanctions regime. &s or military inter$ention# *ussia is ready to

interere in the territories o the F8* and>or the G8*# i it will e orced y Kie$ and their 9&TC allies!

actions. 3oscow understands that the coup d@etat in kraine in 201J was carried out to demoni'e *ussiaand to militari'e the nearest neighoring countries under the 9&TC ;umrella?. 3eanwhile# we can

hardly e"pect a *ussia military inter$ention in the rest o kraine. *ather# 3oscow will watch the

neighoring country!s political strie and# i it is necessary# support one side or another. Aowe$er# the

more eHcient mechanism or the Kremlin is the inuence through the # thus# the eforts to e"pand its

agency in the legislati$e ranch o the uropean countries and the uropean 8arliament will continue. &s

the and *ussia!s oHcial relations are minimi'ed# it will not e so easy. )t is likely that 8utin will use his

personal riends such as il$io Derlusconi in )taly and Eerhard chroeder in Eermany# to inuence the

political situation in urope.



The de$elopment o the *ussian &rctic region and the 9orthern ea *oute is important. )n 2015# *ussian

armed orces completed the reconstruction o se$eral military ases located in the &rctic :ircle and made

successul large,scale maneu$ers. The region will recei$e special attention in 2016.

&elarus)n Cctoer 2015# the *epulic o Delarus had the ne"t presidential elections# in which 8resident

&le"ander Gukashenko won again (Q.5+. Cn the e$e o the $ote# the political opposition was granted

amnesty# and a state o emergency was practically introduced. The country is actually in manual mode#

where there are no signs o the political alternati$e!s appearance in the near uture. ) the :entral &sian

countries raise pulic ser$ants salaries on the e$e o elections or immediately ater them# the diHcult

economic situation in Delarus is not allowed to do it.

The national currency ination in 2015 will continue# most likely# this trend will remain in 2016.

)n Luly# the )3< mission $isited 3insk# which discussed with the country!s leadership the possiility o

allocating credit o R.5 illion. & mandatory condition is the pri$ati'ation o pulic sector reorm. The

)3< ;road map? suggests to reorm the system o support or $ulnerale people within three years (2016,

201Q+# the increase o housing tarifs in a %$e year period (2016,2020+# which means the social program!s

end. &t the same time# the )3< wants %rstly to see the reorm eing carried out# and then they will gi$e

the credit.

&lthough Delarus is included in the & and is the part o the nion tate o *ussia and Delarus# the

country@s leadership ollows the policy o moderate protectionism. *ussia was denied the placement o

its air ase in the country# a result o 3insk not getting the e"pected credit rom 3oscow# although the

Delarus 3ilitaryMindustrial comple" continues to cooperate with *ussia# and the country has deployed

*ussian air deense systems.

)t is clear that anti,*ussian attacks o the Delarus leadership were made in a$or o the . Aowe$er#

Drussels didn!t lit the sanctions against Delarusian oHcials# imposed earlier# although it was admitted

that the Cctoer elections were legitimate.

Gukashenko tries to mediate in the current conict. 3insk earlier ecame the platorm or negotiations

etween Kie$ and Fonass# and at the end o 2015 it ofered its ser$ices to normali'e the relations

etween *ussia and Turkey.

3insk continues to acti$ely de$elop relations with :hina# which has een a regular donor o theDelarusian economy or many years.

)n accordance with the directi$e S5 on &ugust 1# 2015# the main directions o cooperation etween

Delarus and :hina is the deep and mutual integration o industries and enterprises# inormation and

communication technologies# the ormation o joint research and research centers# joint de$elopment o

industrial science# direct and systemic inter,regional cooperation# creation o the regional center in

Delarus inology and cooperation with :hina.

-ith the increasing military presence o 9&TC near Delarus! orders and the ongoing sanctions#

3insk could return to more acti$e cooperation with 3oscow. The nited tates will try to a$oid such a

rapprochement# ut the %nal result depends on the will o one man.

U'raine&s in 201# kraine was regarded as prospecti$e & participant# ater 201J it isn!t rememered# utonly strategically wrong decisions o the current krainian leadership# which is completely controlled y

-ashington and Drussels# are mentioned now. &t the same time# the country de$eloped a uni4ue

corruption mode that afects the population. &t the end o 2015# the staged a numer o e$ents

where high,ranking oHcials hea$ily critici'ed the actions o kraine!s ruling circles. nderstanding the

act that the country!s uropean integration is only a slogan# and all unds allocated or earmarked

projects immediately go into the responsile oHcials! pockets# a crisis o con%dence or the is e$ident.

Thereore# new loans and economic aid packages are unlikely ecause kraine is on the $erge o deault.

The script o signi%cant Kie$ concessions (such concessions ha$e already een made y the nited tates



on strategic enterprises and transactions+ in e"change or %nancial assistance is possile.

The pragmatic uropeans in terms o their own prolems don!t want to deepen into the krainian

speci%cs seriously. )n addition# the alternati$e point o $iew on the e$ents in kraine# including the Kie$

regime!s war crimes in the outheast# ecomes more popular in urope.

ince 2016# kraine!s agreement on association has started to gain speed. Aowe$er# despite a$erage

krainian e"pectations# it is unlikely to ring them some orm o impro$ement. krainian products don!t

comply with uropean certi%cation# so the markets o western countries are closed. &ter the *ussian

sanctions# the east direction is lost too.

)n 2016# the $isa regime aolition will not happen too.

)t will encourage ci$il protest to grow in stature in the country. 3ost likely# it will create a new radical

nationalist coalition that will speak out against the current president and prime minister. )n 2016# the

resignation o 8rime 3inister &rseniy Oatsenyuk is more likely.

)n addition# it will increase the separatist mo$ements. )n other outheast regions# some protests will

occur more re4uently# ut a large,scale military mo$ement is unlikely without the support rom the

*ussian or the use o Fonetsk and Gugansk *epulics as pro"y actors.

(oldo)a

&ter signing the association agreement# 3oldo$a plunged into political scandal and institutionalcrisis. Fespite the numer o eatures (or e"ample# $isa,ree entry into the territory+# 3oldo$a is 4uite

skeptical aout the $ector o uropean integration. The corruption o all pro,uropean politicians in

3oldo$a (the notorious arrest o the ormer prime minister and the head o the Gieral Femocratic 8arty

Blad <ilat# accused on corruption+ led to a sharp decline in con%dence and interest in pro,uropean

projects. )n addition# part o the orces# promoting 4uick integration in a$or o union with *omania

(the nionists+ led to a split among the supporters o the uropean idea# as 4uite a lot o adherents

support the preser$ation o 3oldo$a@s so$ereignty.

)n 2015# 3oldo$a noted the *ussophile mo$ement!s acti$ity. & numer o political parties and pulic

organi'ations a$or 3oldo$a@s accession to the &. 3eanwhile# the Transnistrian issue remains

prolematic or the relationship etween 3oscow and Kishine$.

ince the e$ents in kraine# the 8ridnestro$ian 3olda$ian *epulic was suject to a ull lockade the

soldiers o the *ussian army there could only get to the place o their deployment through 3oldo$a.

The authorities are trying to inuence the staf rotation# and# in 2015# more than 20 *ussian citi'ens

ser$ing in Transnistria were not allowed into the country.

The 3oldo$an Geu is one o ten national currencies o urope and the :) countries# which ell mostly

against the dollar in 2015. )n 2016# the strengthening o the 3oldo$an currency should not e e"pected.

The rest o the trend in 2015 will continue into the current year.

*a+a'hstan)n 2015# the *epulic o Ka'akhstan was occupied mainly with internal prolems on the deterioration o

the socio,economic climate. The national currency (tenge+ was greatly de$alued# ecause o the transition

to a oating e"change rate# and dropped y almost 0. &t the same time# there was no apparent

connection o the currency depreciation with the oil prices o$er the past ew years. &nalysts predict a

signi%cant dollar price rise in 2016 and the oHcial orecast o the 9ational Dank o Ka'akhstan predictsination at Q# while the %rst hal will ecome the worst period.

)n &pril 2015# Ka'akhstan held presidential elections. 9ursultan 9a'araye$ predictaly won# gaining

=I.I5 o $otes. Thus# he continues to e the undisputed leader o the country since 1==1# ut it is

increasingly diHcult to cope with crises. The political elites rotation issue will rise again in the

parliamentary elections in 2016.

)n general# the Ka'akh leadership!s main areas o work will e domestic politics. alaries and pensions

inde"ation# anti,crisis measures and institutional reorms to strengthen statehood are the key priorities



in 2016. <oreign policy will traditionally continue cooperation with :hina. &lso# a serious project# which

will e prepared during 2016# is the world e"hiition N8C,201I# the <uture nergy.

ince Lanuary 1# 2016# Ka'akhstan ecame the presiding country in the urasian conomic nion and the

8resident o Ka'akhstan will directly lead the upreme urasian conomic :ouncil. &s 9a'araye$ was

the initiator to create such a union in 1==1# we should e"pect constructi$e proposals# particularly in the

conte"t o the act that *ussia is usy in kraine and yria. *ather# it is ene%cial or 3oscow# since it can

loy their interests through Ka'akh partners.

*,r,+stan)n 2015# Kyrgy'stan held parliamentary elections# where the results were seen as what would e

e"pected rom a democratic process.

Dut the main e$ent was the country@s accession to the &. *ussia acti$ely helped Kyrgy'stan to adopt

new conditions and there is a tendency that such assistance will continue in the uture.

"perts highly estimated Kyrgy'stan!s achie$ements in culture and sports. -ith proper skill# these

onuses can e easily transormed into geopolitical assets.

The Kyrgy' economy was relati$ely stale. )n the %rst nine months o last year# the EF8 grew y 6.. The

e$ectional campaign contriuted it. The increase o agricultural production and retail turno$er raised

state udget spending and slowing ination. Dut# in 2016# it is e"pected to increase the country@s pulicdet# which could e"ceed 60 o the EF8.

Kyrgy'stan denounced an agreement with *ussia on the construction o Kamarata,1 and pper 9aryn

cascade hydropower plants. The *ussian oHcial position is that the country sufers rom a lack o unds

or such projects. )n act# it may result in certain agreements with 'ekistan# who had a negati$e attitude

to such initiati$es in Kyrgy'stan and in Tajikistan. Aowe$er# Kyrgy'stan intends to seek new in$estors.

)n the uture# Kyrgy'stan# with :hina# intends to egin construction o a 215km railroad. This road will

ecome part o the :hina M Kyrgy'stan M Tajikistan M &ghanistan M )ran regional project.

Thus# Kyrgy'stan will ine$italy act etween the two regional actors# *ussia and :hina# as part o their

policies. )t is unlikely that# in such a situation# the would e ale to return to the military ase in the

3anas airport. Aowe$er# -ashington will try to e"ert diplomatic inuence to construct the country@s

political processes.

"ur'menistanThis :entral &sian country with a doule neutrality status (the reusal to participate in any military locs

with neutrality under the :onstitution+# in the last ew years 4uite successully held the alance etween

home and oreign policy. 8ro%ts rom the production and gas e"ports are distriuted in the national

udget# and e"ternal pressure on the country was minimum.

)n 2016# the situation may start to change. The *ussian monopolist Ea'prom reused to uy Turkmen gas

in 2016. The go$ernment o Turkmenistan also hopes to compensate the all in energy prices through

new projects# although the efect won!t e immediate. &t the end o 2015# the construction o the T&8)

gas pipeline was launched# which will allow the e"portation o gas to &ghanistan# 8akistan and )ndia.

igns that the -est is starting to critici'e the regime are o$ious. &ccording to the inde" o reedoms and

human rights# Turkmenistan more oten than not appears in the $iolator!s list# which is speci%c symptom.&lthough the -est has practically no tools or the country!s destaili'ation due to the act that the

opposition holds a marginal position and is under the ull control o the Turkmenistan law enorcement

agencies# an attempt to create ormal supranational and non,go$ernmental initiati$es or the progressi$e

erosion o the country@s political system may appear. Cn the other hand# the country may e suject to

targeted sanctions# as was pre$iously done in Delarus.

There is also the risk o the e"portation o terrorism to the country. <irst o all# there is the risk o militant

groups rom neighoring &ghanistan crossing the order. <or this reason# the Turkmen leadership sent

an additional military contingent to the east o the country. *ussia also assisted Turkmenistan in



strengthening the Turkmen,&ghan order# which runs on a at landscape. 'ekistan# where there are

e"tremist organi'ations# can also e a source o prolems or Turkmenistan.

&nyway# you should closely monitor how the -est will react to political de$elopments and the situation in

the country. The uture strategic $ector o Turkmenistan depends on it.

U+be'istan

'ekistan is an &sian,type autocracy# which the undisputed leader o the country is IQ,year,old )slamKarimo$. *ecently# he carried out reorms to democrati'e the political system# ut there is no successor

or the presidency there. The worsening prolem o political tensions is trying to e settled y all e"ternal

parties# reali'ing the strategic importance o the country.

The -est has direct interests in the e$ents taking place in this country. )n Cctoer 2015# the

go$ernment $oted strongly against plans to sell the outh Korea T,50 %ghter trainer to 'ekistan# which

was pre$iously de$eloped jointly y the & and outh Korea. -ashington ears that there may e leak o

the technologies to *ussia# although outh Korea intends to keep the deal.

)n 2015# Eermany closed its military ase in 'ekistan# which was used as the transit point to supply

troops in &ghanistan. Aowe$er# the country!s &ir <orce ase remains. )t is o$ious that the presence

o oreign troops in the country depends entirely on the political will o )slam Karimo$. ) pre$iously

'ekistan uilt the relations with 9&TC on the asis o pragmatic security interests related to the

situation in &ghanistan# now Karimo$ understands that 9&TC is ale to radically change the processes inthe country.

&lthough# in recent years# 9&TC intensi%ed rapprochement with 'ekistan.

Cn the other hand# 'ekistan!s list o threats includes natural and man,made disasters that are

associated with the possile construction o hydropower plants in Tajikistan and in Kyrgy'stan. ince the

latter *epulic is a & and :TC memer# it complicates relations within the ramework o the

urasian integration. )n 2016# 'ekistan has a period o intensi$e de$elopment o the hydropower

industry in the state program until 2020.

)n 2015# the relations with Tajikistan impro$ed to the le$el o political consultations etween delegations

o the two countries# which took place on Fecemer 2J,25. -hile acti$ely de$eloping relations with

'ekistan and :hina# the country will continue this trend in the uture.

) Ea'prom stops cooperation with Turkmenistan# the 'ekistan situation ecomes radically diferent.

:C &le"ei 3iller said that the purchase $olumes would e higher than in Turkmenistan# in 2015#

'ekistan was the third gas producer in the :) and one o the ten largest gas,producing countries. )t

suggests that *ussia is on the main trade list and economic partners o 'ekistan. 3oreo$er#

demographically growing 'ekistan supplies *ussia with laor orce that cannot e considered y the

country@s leadership. The common interests with *ussia are linked with the terrorist organi'ation!s

acti$ity.

Tajikistan

)n 2015# the political lie o Tajikistan saw a numer o key e$ents. <or the %rst time# the parliament didn!t

include the opposition# the )slamic *enaissance 8arty (the )*8+ and the :ommunist 8arty. They scored just

o$er 1# which was unlikely. The )*8 leader Kairi# ecause o threats and pressure# was orced to seek

reuge aroad. )t is associated with the strengthening authoritarian trends.)n eptemer# in a special operation# the Feputy Feense 3inister Eeneral &dulkhalim 9a'ar'oda was

assassinated# who# according to the authorities# organi'ed an armed reellion to o$erthrow the current

country leadership. &ter that# the )*8 was declared as a terrorist organi'ation and many o its acti$ists

were arrested.

The Tajik 8resident momali *akhmon recei$ed the title o the 9ational Geader or peace and harmony in

the country.



-hile there is an e"tremist ranch related to al,aida or the )slamic tate in the country# past repression

showed the go$ernment!s inaility to sol$e key prolems.

)n 2016# it could detonate# when the country will ace a socio,political crisis or ethno,sectarian outreak

o $iolence.

&lthough the )slamic tate is considered as the iggest threat# it is necessary to understand that Tajikistan

is a transit country o drug traHcking rom &ghanistan to neighoring countries# and then to *ussia. &ll

o these threats can escalate in 2016.

Tajikistan includes 201 *ussian military ases and its troops recently were mo$ed to ull alert.

&lthough Tajikistan strongly depends on *ussia# in 2016# it will try to maneu$er etween the $arious

players in world politics.

To attract in$estment# Fushane will address :hina and the &ra monarchies. ) *ussia can ofer

signi%cant preerences# it is likely that Tajikistan enters the & e$en in 2016.

.eoriaEeorgia continues to ocus on and 9&TC integration. The Eeorgian,Cssetian conict in 200Q and the

*ussian operations conduction or peace enorcement was used y the &tlantist orces in the country to

promote pulic opinion that only 9&TC can protect Eeorgia rom someone@s aggression. &lthough 9&TC

accepts new memers only i the country has resol$ed all their contentious territorial issues# the

Eeorgian go$ernment continues to campaign or joining the 9orth &tlantic &lliance.Eeorgia@s economic inde" o oreign trade ell o$er the past year# despite the signing o the

association agreement. )t is o$ious that *ussia is the main market or Eeorgian products# so in 2016

Tilisi will try to impro$e relations with 3oscow. )t is possile that *ussia will cancel the $isa regime with

Eeorgia.

Aowe$er# a major reakthrough shouldn!t e e"pected. 8olitically and military Eeorgia will still ollow

-ashington and Drussels orders. $en the appearance o the )slamic tate terrorist organi'ation!s

ranches in the territory o the :aucasian repulic is unlikely to orce its leaders to conduct pragmatic

security policies.

&'eraijan

The year o 2015 was diHcult or the *epulic o &'eraijan# with the all in energy prices# which afected

the national economy. &t the same time# the country remained in a critical le$el o unemployment and

low wages in the social sector. )n addition# traditional ureaucratic corruption ecame a concern o thecountry!s supreme power.

The signing y the &'eraijani 8resident o the decree to dissol$e the 9ational ecurity 3inistry was

signi%cant. )n it!s place# the tate ecurity and <oreign )ntelligence er$ice will e created. arlier# the

3inistry o <oreign &fairs o &'eraijan dismissed many oHcials. )t is not clear how efecti$e the purge

was. The country has a lot o ad$isors rom the countries# which enhances the diplomatic pressure on

the )lhan &liye$ clan. The 8resident understands that e"ily maneu$ering etween the interests o all

actors will e diHcult# thereore# they are orced to make a numer o concessions# at least in respect o

their own legitimacy and security.

&t the end o 2015# a new plan or the )ndi$idual 8artnership etween &'eraijan and 9&TC was

appro$ed. )n addition# the *ussian,Turkish crisis in$arialy afected Daku!s oreign policy priorities. Turkey

is a traditional partner o &'eraijan with common historical and cultural roots. )t is likely to strengthenthese countries energy alliance with Eeorgia as the transit territory. The outh :aucasus gas pipeline

e"pands the Trans,&natolian (the T&9&8+ gas pipeline that is uilding now# and the Trans,&driatic

8ipeline (the T&8+ that is planned to start uilding in 2016# may create a certain competition or the

*ussian Ea'prom. To tell the truth# to complete the work to pump gas to Turkey and urope in the

declared $olumes in 2020# it is necessary to complete the work at the hah Feni' tage 2# which re4uires

a minimum o RJ5 illion.

Armenia



The whole economic situation in the country remains unstale and una$orale. igni%cant inde"es ell

markedly. &t the same time# &rmenia@s accession to the &: didn!t ring tangile efect# as relati$ely

little time passed ater the rati%cation o all documents. The o$erall efect o the gloal %nancial crisis#

currency uctuations and reducing economic growth in *ussia are elt in &rmenia. )n 2016# signi%cant

impro$ements in the economy are not e"pected.

)n 2015# &rmenia conducted political reorm# which pro$ided or a parliamentary,presidential orm o

go$ernment and a growing role o the go$ernment. )t is diHcult to predict how efecti$e the new model

will e# as the opposition constantly critici'ed the ruling coalition. ntil now# the structure o all the

opposition in &rmenia is ragmented# which pre$ents them rom conducting efecti$e moili'ation.

Aowe$er# permanent grant assistance rom the emassy and other -estern actors may achie$e the

re4uired result and unite the critical mass o the dissatis%ed soon# as was the case in kraine. )t is likely

that the actor o the 9agorno,Karaakh conict# including the possile role o &'eraijan# will e used to

shake up the situation in &rmenia. 9either &rmenia# nor &'eraijan is ready or the direct military conict#

especially since &rmenia has a *ussian military ase and the country is a memer o the :ollecti$e

ecurity Treaty Crgani'ation. Dut there will e serious pro$ocations that will e used to destaili'e the

region in general.

ConclusionsThe key trends in 2015 or the region will continue in general. *ussia will try to %nd non,tri$ial solutions to

implement its political inuence in urasia# as the old methods o pulic diplomacy and pulic assistance

seem to e inefecti$e. )t is possile that more delicate techni4ues will e used# perhaps with the help o

tertiary orces.

:hina and )ran!s role in :entral &sia will e more eHcient# while post,o$iet uropean countries will ace

the worsening o crisis.

)slamic terrorism will recei$e more attention rom the :) political elites ne"t year. There is also the risk o

the escalation o ro'en conicts.

)t suggests a re$iew o the e"isting regional security system# which can take place within the ramework o

the :TC and the :C.

Islamic World

)n 2015# the )slamic world was the center o the world!s attention. )t is the most unstale region which has

een the most swept with the %re o ongoing ci$il wars. )n 2016# we can e"pect the conict to spread to

the still relati$ely stale parts o the )slamic world. The conrontation etween the unnis and hiites will

intensiy.

The phenomenon o the )slamic tate has a special importance. <rom small sectarian groups in yria and

)ra4# it turned into a gloal threat. )ncreased competition posed y )) has orced other jihadist

ormations to intensiy their acti$ities.

20! "rends)i%il war in *yriaThe ci$il war in yria was the center o world politics in 2015. The internal conict ecame a %eld o

collision etween gloal powers and the place where the ate o &merican hegemony was put at stake.

*ussia and )ran ha$e used all o their diplomatic and military eforts to pre$ent the $ictory o the

opposition orces# and instead ha$e pushed or a signi%cant deeat# demonstrating that the nited

tates and its allies can no longer impose its will on other parts o the world. The %rst prolem was

sol$ed# while achie$ing the second goal has een postponed or an inde%nite amount o time.

Famascus managed to a$oid deeat his year. The military inter$ention o *ussia and the support o )ran

helped to win se$eral territories rom the opposition orces. The primary military success was the capture



o Aoms y go$ernment troops. )n 9o$emer 2015# the yrian army took control o the town o l,

Khader# which was the main Lahat al,9usra terrorist stronghold.

9e$ertheless# the country@s territory remains di$ided. Dashar al,&ssad@s go$ernment controls most o the

ast#while )) controls the -est# which consist o the $alleys o the Tigris and uphrates and the 8almyra

area. The remaining territory is di$ided etween numerous )slamist groups led y the Eul state# Turkey#

and the nited tates.

The impossiility o signi%cantly changing the alance o power in the internal yrian conrontation in the

near oreseeale uture compelled oreign players to look or ways to end the conict through a

diplomatic settlement. The *ussian military inter$ention orced leaders o -estern countries to e more

accommodating. <earul o its success# the -est decided to eat *ussia in the diplomatic %eld. )n

9o$emer 2015# Bienna launched another series o talks on yria. <or the %rst time# the negotiation

process included not only *ussia and the -est# ut also )ran# audi &raia and the Eul states.

Fespite a numer o agreements in the negotiation process etween the major geopolitical actors whose

interests collided in yria# the main result o which was the decision to hold general elections within the

ne"t 1Q months# serious disagreements o$er the uture o a political settlement in the country remain.

The main issue is the 4uestion o the current president Dashar al,&ssad@s dismissal. The nited tates#

the # Turkey# atar# audi &raia# and the yrian opposition under control all insist on it. *ussia#

)ran# Ae'ollah# Famascus itsel# and Dashar al,&ssad@s yrian supporters are against it.

&nother outstanding issue is the creation o a single terrorist organi'ation list. This task is entrusted to

Lordan which is currently participating in the conict on the side o the -estern countries and supports

the yrian opposition. Aowe$er# the Aashemite Kingdom aims to keep riendly relations with *ussia# and

thereore it is alancing etween the two power centers. There are three positions all acing each other

on this issue. The position o *ussia and )ran is that not only )) and &l,9usra# ut also Laish al,)slami#

&hrar al,ham and other jihadists %nanced y Turkey# atar and audi &raia# are to e recogni'ed as

terrorist organi'ations. The position o Turkey# atar and audi &raia is that ))# &l,9usra# hiite sel,

deense groups# and Ae'ollah must e recogni'ed as terrorist organi'ations. The position o the and

urope is that Laish al,)slami# &hrar al,ham and other jihadists %nanced y Turkey# atar and audi

&raia must not e included on the terrorist list.

Fisagreements on who may e in$ol$ed in the negotiation process nonetheless still remain. &ll partiesinsist on the e"clusion o those who they consider to e terrorists. )n addition# audi &raia# which tried

in Fecemer to hold a unity congress o the yrian opposition# along with Turkey# insist on e"cluding

yrian Kurds. The nited tates supports including all parties who oppose &ssad# e"cept &l,9usra and the

))# in negotiations.

)i%il war in +ra,)n 2015# anti,)) orces ailed to achie$e a $ictory o$er the )slamic state. The most eHcient structures

opposing )) ecame the Kurdish sel,deense units and the )ra4i hiite $olunteer ormations. The %rst

group@s training was acti$ely in$ested in y Turkey# )srael and the nited tates# while the second one y

)ran. )ra4i armed orces# in most cases# were deeated y the ))# lea$ing their e4uipment and weapons

ehind. The primary success o the year or the anti,)) orces was the lieration o Tikrit (a town in the

north o the country+ rom )) in 3arch 2015. The main setack was the )) capture o *amadi# the

&nar pro$incial center =0 kilometers rom the capital o Daghdad.

)n 9o$emer o 2015# )ra4i Kurds cut the road etween *a44a (yria# the )) head4uartered+ and 3osul

()ra4# the main )) stronghold in )ra4+. Thus# )) was actually di$ided into two parts and weapon and oil

supplies etween the )) militants in yria and )ra4 were locked.

)n Fecemer# the )ra4i army# supported y aircrat and hiite $olunteers# launched an ofensi$e to

lierate *amadi. Fespite oHcial claims coming rom Daghdad# much o the city remains in )) hands.



)ra4 remains di$ided religiously and politically. The southern part o the country is controlled y the hiite

go$ernment# ollowing )ran# ut is also dependent on the nited tates. The north,western region# where

unnis li$e# is controlled y )). )ts northwest territories are under the control o Kurdish orces.

)ra4i Kurdistan is in a diHcult situation. 8ower there is oHcially in the hands o the Dar'ani clan which

aligns with Turkey. &t the same time# the region is inuenced y 8KK orces# yrian Kurds# and Oa'idi

militants who are not suject to Dar'ani and ha$e a negati$e attitude toward Dar'ani!s strategy to make

Kurdistan a dependent Turkish territory.

The phenomenon of +*+*C$er the past year# the )slamic tate demonstrated an aility to efecti$ely deend its territory# capture

new areas in yria and )ra4# and UUspread its inuence to other parts o the world. The )) phenomenon

includes pre,modern# modernist and post,modernist elements and is deployed at the regional and gloal

le$els.

The regional prospect o )) is ased largely in yrian and )ra4i unnis and in countries where was or has

come to e in the hands o e"plicitly religious groups. )) has also utili'ed the organi'ational skills o the

ormer structures o addam Aussein!s nationalist regime in )ra4.

)n other parts o the )slamic world# )) used contro$ersies and di$isions within e"isting terrorist groups

to enale it to use its rand in diferent e"tremist structures. This tactic o creating terrorist ranchises

resulted in the appearance o )) groups in &ghanistan# Giya# Oemen# the 8hilippines# Dangladesh#

gypt# and joining the Doko Aaram group in 9igeria.

The terrorist attacks in 8aris on 9o$emer 1th 2015# as well as the terrorist attacks in the 3iddle ast

and &rica carried out y )) terrorists# showed that the group has successully entered the gloal arena.

The most signi%cant part o )) propaganda is aimed at the -est. 3edia images and cliches typical or

-estern popular culture are used# emphasi'ing displays o $iolence and the image o successul# rutal

con4uerors. )n 2015# the )slamic tate achie$ed an impressi$e $ictory in the media# ecoming the most

notorious media phenomenon o the )slamic ci$ili'ation in the world.

The e"istence o )) ecame an e"cuse to interere in the yrian conict or oth the and *ussia. The

estalished anti,)) coalitions mainly %ght to resol$e the yrian conict in their own a$ors. <irst o all#

this in$ol$es the nited tates# whose territory is located ar rom the main )) ases# and where the

proportion o the 3uslim population is aout 1 (in *ussia M 10+.

The and its allies showed a reluctance to %ght against ))@s %nancing. 8ossile actions that could e

taken are targeting and destroying the )slamists! oil cara$ans and sanctioning their indi$iduals and

entities as well as states participating in the )) oil trade. Oes these steps were not taken.

+ran<or )ran# the main e$ent o the past year was reaching an agreement on the )ranian nuclear program with

the si" international oser$ers (the permanent memers o the 9 ecurity :ouncil and the uropean

nion+

)ran has agreed to get rid o =Q o the a$ailale uel and cut two,thirds o its centriuges. The )slamic

repulic has pledged ;VtWo not seek to ac4uire# to de$elop or to ha$e access to any kind o nuclear

weapons# under any circumstances.? )n response# the uropean nion and the nited 9ations ha$e

pledged to lit sanctions against )ran. The nited tates plans to cancel only those sanctions afecting)ran@s nuclear program# while upholding sanctions imposed or other reasons. The warming o relations

with the nited tates has een only partial. )ran has strengthened its relations with *ussia within the

conte"t o the two countries@ joint actions in yria. The military inter$ention o audi &raia in Oemen

complicated relations etween states in the region. )n act# )ran is engaged in a pro"y war against the

audis and their allies in Oemen.

Turey



The conict with *ussia ecame the main de$elopment o 2015 or Turkey. &ccording to our inormation

the Turkish operation to destroy the *ussian military aircrat was coordinated y the &mericans who

intended to set these two powerul regional players on a course o collision. Deore that# in spite o the

diferent positions on yria# oth countries were uilding mutually ene%cial economic cooperation#

especially in the energy sector. *ussia was ready to agree to the estalish a Turkish control 'one in

northern yria. The conict with *ussia disrupted plans to peaceully reali'e this scenario.

npro%tale conict or Turkey and *ussia orced the Turkish leadership to seek help in the -est and

egan the process o the restoration o diplomatic relations with )srael. They were ro'en in 2010 ater

the incident with the Turkish ship# the 3armara# in$ol$ed with Ea'a. 9ow )srael# like )ra4i Kurdistan# could

ecome a gas supplier to Turkey as *ussian gas supplies could e locked.

Turkey is seeking to sa$e ace and its oHcials ha$e claimed that a ull normali'ation o relations is

possile only ater )sraelis cease the Ea'a lockade# ut there are no signs o a change in policy towards

8alestinians.

Gosing *ussia# Turkey tried to gain the support o audi &raia in jointly deend their interests in yria

and northern )ra4. The deployment o Turkish troops in )ra4i Kurdistan in Fecemer 2015 caused a

worsening o relations with )ran and )ra4.

& serious actor in destaili'ing the internal situation in Turkey is the Kurdish 4uestion. )n 2015# Turkish

Kurdistan was de acto in a state o low,intensity ci$il war. The actions o Kurdish separatists were ueled

y the yrian *oja$a Kurds and yrian Kurdistan# which are controlled y the Kurdistan -orkers@ 8arty. &s

a result# Turkey deployed an anti,Kurdish campaign in )ra4. )n addition to attacking 8KK positions rom

the air# the Turks decided to rely on the loyal 3assoud Dar'ani clan# which controls most o the oHcial

positions in )ra4i Kurdistan. Turkish troops were essentially deployed in northern )ra4 to aid the Dar'ani

%ght disloyal Kurdish orces. The prete"t is always the %ght against the )).

)n its turn# the nited tates does not support the actions o anti,Kurdish Turks and is attempting to turn

an increasingly ormed Kurdistan into a stronghold o power in the region. This causes additional

tension in relations etween Turkey and the # ut now Turkey has almost no room to maneu$er and is

orced to ollow in the wake o &merican strategic policy.

*audi ArabiaThe situation in audi &raia is as diHcult as e$er. The country is mired in a hopeless war in Oemen.

3ilitary deeat is contriuting to the growth o internal separatism in the region# mostly populated y

hiites.

<alling oil prices ha$e negati$ely impacted the audi &raia economy and the implementation o the

kingdom!s geopolitical strategy has yielded a numer o prolems. &mong them is the prolem $ictory in

the ao$e,mentioned Oemen campaign# the e"pansion o audi inuence in the area o UUthe )ndian

Ccean (the 3aldi$es+# the support and legitimi'ation o )slamist pro"ies in yria# and support or radical

)slam in &ghanistan.

& particular interest o the audis is yria# where the kingdom is one o the %ercest opponents o Dashar

al,&ssad. *epeatedly# audi pri$ate unds ha$e een accused o supporting not only the radicals o &hrar

al ham or Laish al,)slami# support or which is no secret# ut also o %nancing the terrorists and

insurgents o )) &l,9usra. )ndirect e$idence also points to the act that# although audi &raia has

condemned )) with words and the terrorist organi'ation declared the kingdom its enemy# in 2015 theaudi go$ernment took no real steps in %ghting# economically or militarily# )).

)n 2015# *iyadh made se$eral attempts to negotiate with 3oscow on a numer o key issues# particularly

yria. Bisits to *ussia o a numer o representati$es o the audi royal amily# including the deense

minister and de acto ruler# son o king alman# 3ohamed in alman# ocused on this topic. )n addition#

Bladimir 8utin personally talked with king alman on the sidelines o the E20 summit. The *ussian

military operation marked the ailure o attempts to negotiate with the Kremlin. The destruction o pro,



audi groups in yria orced the audis to try to legitimi'e them through including them in the peace

process as negotiation participants.

audi &raia@s relationship with its main enemy# )ran# is one step away rom open conrontation. These

parties are in a pro"y war in yria and Oemen. Dy weakening )ranian inuence in )ra4# )) ojecti$ely acts

in the interests o the audis. audi &raia sentenced to death memers o hiite demonstrations in

2012. &mong them were se$eral teenagers and the amous hiite religious leader# heikh al,9imr who

was e"ecuted on Lanuary 2# 2015. 8re$iously# Erand &yatollah 9asser 3akarem hira'i warned the audi

&raia go$ernment that hiites all o$er the world will not tolerate the e"ecution o one o their

community leaders in audi &raia. 9ow the hiites are the majority o the population in the main oil

pro$ince o audi &raia# the administrati$e district o al,har4i. )n addition# there are more hiites

()smaili+ in the 9ajran pro$ince on the order with Oemen.

The ausi$e attitude o the audis toward hiites was emphasi'ed y the odies o hiite pilgrims killed in

the stampede in 3ecca on eptemer 2=# 2015 (just o$er 2#000 people were killed+. This urther

complicated relations etween the -ahhai and the hiite poles o the )slamic world.

&nother actor undermining audi &raiam security is the in%ghting o its elites. The royal amily is 4uite

numerous# ut in 2015 the eele,minded son o the ounder King &dul &'i' alman came to power.

&ter his death# power should ha$e een gi$en to the second generation o the audi dynasty. 3ost likely#

in the near uture 8rince 3ohammed in alman in 3ohammed and :rown 8rince 9ai &l aud willmeet in a duel or power. -hile the %rst one is an ardent supporter o audi hegemony in the region and

is prone to ad$entures# like Oemen conict# the second one has een pre$iously characteri'ed as the

most pro,&merican memer o the audi ruling elite.

The third action is the part o the ruling amily that is dissatis%ed with oth pretenders to the throne. )n

&ugust 2015# there were three open letters o the two princes o the house o )n,aud. Their

representati$es call or o$erthrowing the 8rinces 3ohammed in 9aye and 3ohammed in alman

ecause their ad$enturist policies# especially the reckless operation in Oemen# ha$e put the country on

the rink o disaster.

.ar in /emenThe year 2015 was marked y a ull,scale &ra coalition in$asion o Oemen under audi &raian

leadership. Desides the audis# the nited &ra mirates# Dahrain# gypt# 3orocco# Lordan# Kuwait and

8akistan took part in the war against Oemen. The last one only ormally joined the coalition# ut ears no

real in$ol$ement in the conict. The main urden o the war is orn y audi &raia# the & and

Dahrain.

The conict in Oemen intensi%ed ater Lanuary 2015 when 8resident Aadi# who came to power in the

eginning o the &ra pring# was replaced y pro,)ranian reels# the Authis. The -ahhai Eul

monarchies could not allow control o$er the strategically important peninsula country o Oemen to e

handed o$er to their geopolitical and religious opponents.

Oemen is o high geopolitical importance. )t is located in the southwestern part o the &raian 8eninsula.

:ontrol o$er Oemen is important or controlling the Da el,3ande trait# the narrow neck connecting

the *ed ea and the )ndian Ccean. The Da,el,3ande is one o the key points o the sea route linking

the 3editerranean and the )ndian Ccean as all oil and li4ue%ed natural gas tankers going rom the Eul

to urope must pass through the strait.The Authis! rise to power in Oemen is a direct threat to the domestic staility o audi &raia. & signi%cant

part o the population o the pro$inces neighoring Oemen consists o Oemeni coreligionists# Authis,

Paidis# and hia,)smaili# who sufer rom the audi kingdom!s persecution. )ran could use Oemen as a

ase or organi'ing riots and protest mo$ements within audi &raia itsel.

The country urged the inter$ention o its geopolitical allies and the nited tates who are similarly

against any strengthening o tellurocratic )ran and the interception o this strategically important sea

route.



The war o the audis and their allies against the Authis has orn no considerale success. The Authis

keep the country@s capital ana!a and much o 9orth Oemen. <ormer 8resident aleh allied with Authis

and returned to the country. Ais supporters joined the %ght against the in$aders. )n outh Oemen# a

signi%cant part o the territory is controlled y local separatists and militants o &raian 8eninsula al,

aeda and local )slamic tate groupings. )slamic radicals are waging the war against oth the Authis and

the audi coalition and are gaining entire cities.

Cne o the main trends o this war has een the Authis@ use o anti,ship tactical missiles which ha$e

disaled ew audi ships and missile attacks on audi ases# including on the territory o audi &raia

itsel. Dy the end o the year# the Authis and the Oemeni army loyal to the 8resident attacked the centers

o audi &raian pro$inces close to the orders. They now control most o the 9ajran pro$ince and

entered Li'an pro$ince# laying siege to its capital with the same name.

The war in Oemen threatens to ecome a audi Bietnam. e$eral actors signi%cantly impede the mission/

, 3ountainous territories# especially in northern parts o Oemen# con$enient or guerrilla warare

, The local population!s e"treme militancy

, The presence o some une"pected opponents esides the Authis

, )ran!s supply o arms (optional+.

:hina is suspected o supporting the Authis and aleh as well# as it shows serious interest in the Da l

3ande. This year# the :hinese announced the construction o its own military ase in Fjiouti# located

on the other side o the trait.

The only way or the audis to succeed in Oemen is a mass genocide o the local population. Aowe$er# the

audi coalition doesn!t ollow any international rules o the warare. Time plays against the audis. The

weakness o its own armed orces as demonstrated in this campaign ha$e orced the coalition country to

seek mercenaries which ha$e since ecome an additional urden on the country@s military udget. There

is the danger that# as a result o low oil prices# the Eul countries will soon e unale to continue the war

or economic reasons.

0alestine)n 2015# the most signi%cant trend was the start o the 8alestinian knie intiada. Cne reason was yet

another conict on the Temple 3ount in Lerusalem in Cctoer 2015# when the )sraelis reused to allow

representati$es o some )slamic mo$ements to the mos4ue. The suse4uent outreak o $iolence led toa series o ongoing attacks y 8alestinian youth on )sraelis. The tools o terror are ordinary kitchen

kni$es. The action does not ha$e a leader and is spontaneous and all inormation and calls or attacks are

spread across the )nternet.

uch $iolent 8alestinian actions were preceded y Lewish religious e"tremists! aggression inspired y the

)sraeli go$ernment. <or e"ample# the urning o an &ra amily with a small child on the night o Luly 0 in

the &ra $illage o Kar Fuma.

8alestinians! radicali'ation has also contriuted to the continuation o the Ea'a lockade and )srael@s

reusal to withdraw its troops rom the occupied -est Dank. 8re$ious )sraeli oming destroyed the

majority o Ea'a!s ci$ilian acilities. &out 1.Q million people o a population o more than 2 million in the

city were let without homes. 9ot a single house was reuilt. &ccording to the 9# Ea'a has the highest

unemployment rate in the world reaching aout JQ. )n such circumstances# the Ea'a trip is yetanother world region where )slamic tate structure could %nd strong support. They ha$e already made

se$eral attacks on )sraeli territory. )n response# )srael launched strikes on )) orces opposing Aamas

actions.

Egypt 2015 was a year o oth great hope and great loss or gypt. The most important e$ent was the

destruction o the *ussian passenger plane &irus &,21 y the Bilayat inai terrorist group# a ranch o

the )slamic tate# on Cctoer 1# 2015. This e$ent showed the world the terrorist threat le$el in gypt and



e"posed the prolem o terrorist acti$ities in the inai 8eninsula# which was pre$iously a prolem or

gypt and )srael.

This year# gypt pursued a policy o alancing etween thalassocratic and tellurocratic powers. Cn the

one hand# the 8resident o gypt# <ield 3arshal &l,sisi# estalished relations with the *ussian leader#

Bladimir 8utin. gypt ecame the major customer o *ussian arms. Cn the other hand# gypt supported

audi &raia in its operations in Oemen. The audis are also one o the current gyptian regime!s

sponsors. Aa$ing achie$ed# together with the &# the remo$al o the ormer gyptian go$ernment o the

3uslim Drotherhood# which was acked mainly y atar and Turkey# the audis supported the military

coup o isi. )t is signi%cant that -ahhai pro,audi parties were not against the coup d!etat in gypt.

Cne o the most important conse4uences o the terrorist attack o$er the inai was a sharp decline in the

ow o *ussian and uropean (especially Dritish+ tourists. & chip in this important part o the gyptian

udget!s re$enue has resulted in the increased dependence on the country and its leadership on audi

&raia.

)i%il war in 1ibya)n 2015# the Giyan ci$il war continued# with the country $irtually ceasing to e"ist as a united state. The

chances o o$ercoming this di$ision are too little.

The conict egan on 3ay 16th# 201J# when the 3ajor Eeneral o the Giyan 9ational &rmy# a citi'en

acti$ely co,operating with the :)&# Aatarah Khalia# announced the launch o a large,scale air and ground

operation in$ol$ing his troops o the armed orces in the city o Dengha'i. The military ofensi$e mission

recei$ed a codename/ Cperation Fignity. The %ghting continues e$en now. The military coup d!etat took

place ecause o the disagreement within the united power to o$erthrow 3uamarra Eadda% pre$iously.

&s a result# two go$ernments were ormed in the country/ in Toruk and in Tripoli.

The Tripoli go$ernment controls a signi%cant part o Tripolitania# the northwestern part o the country. )t

is controlled y the local ranch o the 3uslim Drotherhood and is guided y atar and Turkey. The

second# Toruk go$ernment# in the eastern part o the country# near the gyptian orders# controls most

o :yrenaica# the historical region in eastern Giya. The Toruk go$ernment is considered as

internationally recogni'ed and ocuses on the &# gypt# audi &raia# the -estern countries# and is

trying to gain *ussian support.

Doth go$ernments struggle in <e''an# the southern part o the country# populated mainly y the Derertries. 9one o the go$ernments were ale to deeat the opposing side# and thus it is unlikely to do so in

the near uture. $ery go$ernment is an amorphous coalition o diferent tries and groups# warlords#

ollowing their local interests.

)n addition to the two go$ernments in Giya# there is also the )slamic tate local ranch# who captured a

signi%cant part o the oil,earing coast o irte and announced itsel y the mass e"ecution o gyptian

:optic :hristians in <eruary 2015. <ighting against )) in Giya is largely done y the Toruk

go$ernment with the support o the gyptian a$iation# ut it has not rought the desired result.

Gocal groups in the city o 3israta ha$e great importance# in act# they are separated rom the rest o

Giya and the Tuareg tries that control o the southwest o the country. &ll the groups %ght or the

Tuareg tries inuence.

This year# peace talks were held to estalish the coalition go$ernment including the representati$es o Toruk and Tripoli go$ernments. pecial roles are played y 3orocco# <rance# nited tates! ally in the

3aghre and )taly# Giya@s ormer colonial power. )n Fecemer 2015# an agreement was signed on the

estalishing o such a go$ernment. Aowe$er# part o the Tripoli leadership already e"pressed

disagreement with the document. The chances o estalishing peace in Giya# e$en y creating such a

go$ernment# is $ery little# as the reason or the ci$il war and the countries disintegration is not political

diferences# which can e sol$ed y creating a party coalition# ut the clan and trial disputes.

Afghanistan



)n 2015# the main &ghanistan trend ecame a split in the ranks o )slamists opposing the go$ernment.

The moderate Talian are representing the interests o the countries 8ashtun tries and are oriented

primarily on the creation o the national )slamic state# e"pressing their readiness to start negotiations

with the oHcials in Kaul. The talks were scheduled in Luly 2015# ut the news o the death o 3ullah

Cmar# the leader o the &ghan Talian# slowed the process. 3ullah Cmar# who replaced 3ansour# was

also interested in the negotiations# pro$iding the oreign troops withdraw rom &ghanistan. )n response#

the implacale )slamists tried to assassinate the Talian leader.

3ullah 3ansour!s opposition was represented y local radicals# oreign mercenaries and nati$es o

:entral &sia# e"pecting to use &ghanistan as the ase or e"pansion o the ormer o$iet nion. ome o

them continue their actions# regardless o the central leadership# under the ag o the Talian

mo$ement some joined the )slamic state structure that appeared in &ghanistan.

)n 2015# the conict in &ghanistan ecame more comple". The conrontation etween Kaul and the

Talian was added to the conict etween the Talian and ))# and on the one hand# the conict

etween the moderate and radical Talian# and etween Kaul# radical Talian and ))# on the other

hand.

)) appeared as the new center o radical )slamist!s attraction# orcing the ruling region!s countries to

reconsider their attitude toward the Talian# recogni'ing it as not that great a e$il or e$en a constructi$e

orce# which under the circumstances# can e reed rom e"cessi$e radicalism. The Talian# in turn#released an oHcial statement in which they said that they do not intend to e"pand the organi'ation

eyond &ghanistan.

)t increases the chances to start peace talks etween the Talian and the &ghan go$ernment. :hina

takes an acti$e participation in the estalishment o intra,&ghan talks# and sends periodically delegations

to $isit the Talian. The representati$es o *ussia stated the presence o communication channels with

the Talian and the general interest in the )slamic tate destruction in &ghanistan. )ndia and )ran are

also interested in peace in &ghanistan.

The radical )slamist!s %nancing in &ghanistan comes rom atar and audi &raia. These countries are

interested in the continuation o the &ghan conict# as it would undermine plans to uild oil and gas

pipelines rom *ussia and )ran to )ndia through the region countries# including &ghanistan. Thus# the oil

and gas Eul monarchies may lose a large market.

These projects# as well as the strengthening o the *ussian and :hinese inuence in &ghanistan# will not

e ene%cial or the nited tates.

&ghan!s leadership is 4uite an"ious. )n 2015# the Talian re4uently conducted terrorist attacks# including

armed attacks in Kaul. )n the summer# in the north o the country# the Talian took the strategically

important city o Kundu'. )n the north o the country# in a numer o areas# the Talian came closer to

the orders o Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. The current &ghan leadership needs to protect themsel$es

rom the radical!s attacks. C$iously# e$en i the Talian leaders will negotiate# it cannot pro$ide anything#

the irreconcilale struggle will continue# despite the %nal decision.

The &ghanistan leadership appealed to *ussia se$eral times to increase its deense. Eeneral *ashid

Fostum# the head o 'ek militants made a $isit to *ussia. &ll these e$ents angered the nited tates#

and it turned out that &ghanistan is gradually alling under the *ussian and :hinese inuence # and the

Talian and the oHcial country!s leadership made the steps to achie$e it. nder the prete"t o thestrengthening o the terrorist threat# the &tlanticists decided to lea$e the &merican and Dritish troops in

&ghanistan or se$eral more years.

0aistanThe Xhanging power alance in 8akistan had a signi%cant impact on &ghanistan!s processes. The

8akistani elites are now di$ided. & part o it# especially the political leadership# reoriented toward :hina.

)n &ghanistan# this part o the 8akistani estalishment stands or peaceul settlement o the conict.



&nother part o the 8akistani elite# connected to the military intelligence and the 8akistani Talian#

opposes the peace process and maintains close ties with the nited tates.

)n 2015# 8akistan# in general# mo$ed closer to the continental pole. This state# like )ndia# entered the

hanghai :ooperation Crgani'ation. 8akistan continued to strengthen ties with *ussia and :hina.

)n 2015# :hinese leader Ni Linping announced the estalishment o ino,8akistani economic corridor. )t is

the transport and logistics project that includes 8akistan in the new ilk *oad# a network o transportcorridors linking :hina through :entral &sia to the western part o the urasian continent.

arlier in 201J# *ussia lited an emargo on supplying arms to 8akistan# which initiated the de$elopment

o deense relations etween the two countries. )n &ugust 2015# *ussia and 8akistan signed a contract on

military transport helicopters 3i,53.

)n 2015# 8akistan had taken part in joint military training e"ercices with *ussia in the *ussian <ar ast as

well as in competitions o the &ir <orce crews etween *ussia# :hina# gypt# Bene'uela and Delarus.

*ussian companies will take part in the construction o the 9orth,outh pipeline in 8akistan rom Karachi

to the port town o Gahore. )n the uture# this part may ecome part o the pipeline system# which will

deli$er li4ue%ed natural gas rom )ran to 8akistan and :hina.

Dut there are no positi$e changes in the relations with the . &merica is losing 8akistan# gi$ing it to

:hina and *ussia.

The change in the 8akistani oreign policy rom the monopolar to multipolar course was accompanied y

increased terrorist acti$ity. )n 2015# almost e$ery month# 8akistan sufered rom se$eral acts o terrorism#

most o them eing committed y unni radicals and Daluchistan separatists. The religious groups that

committed most o the attacks# was the hiite minority.

20# $orecast*yriaThe intensi%cation o %ghting in &leppo and an ofensi$e o the yrian army on 8almyra are e"pected.

Furing the year these two cities will e lierated y yrian orces. Aowe$er# the successes o the

Famascus go$ernment will end with these two major military $ictories.

The eginning o political settlement and peace talks will not ring the desired results. The country will deacto remain ethnically and religiously di$ided# and will not e ready or elections in 201I. Dashar al,

&ssad will reuse to resign.

&ter raising the issue o the necessity to deploy in a ground operation# *ussia will e looking or ways

out o war in yria during the year. Dut the possile introduction o Turkish troops in north yria may

disrupt these plans.

The )slamic state will not e deeated in yria and will retain most o its territories e"cept 8almyra. The

yrian armed orces will conduct operations against )) only in the second turn# %rstly trying to destroy

the weaker )slamist groups# which the -est regards as terrorists. &ter cleaning the political attle%eld#

the Famascus go$ernment will remain the only alternati$e to )). To protect their controlled )slamists

and to neutrali'e yrian Kurds# Turkey will ring troops into northern yria.

+ra,

The )slamic state will retain most o its territories in )ra4. )n 2016 there will e a attle or 3osul. Thearmed orces o )ra4 with support o hiite military ormations and Kurdish militias will try to take the city#

which is the de acto capital o the )ra4i part o )). The operation will not succeed.

The )ra4i go$ernment will remain di$ided. The Kurdish part will commit to a %nal ormation o their own

state. The conict etween the Kurds will not allow the statehood o a uni%ed Kurdistan with the

in$ol$ement o the yrian and Turkish Kurds to e completed# ut the signi%cance o the Kurdish actor in

world politics will increase. Turkey will sa$e its military presence in )ra4i Kurdistan to maintain control

o$er the process.



+*+*)t should e e"pected that the increase o terrorist acti$ity against the ackdrop o ))Ys will e relati$e

to the ailures in yria and )ra4. The mo$ement will not e deeated# ut also will not e ale to gain

signi%cant $ictories in the region. The e"pansion o terrorist acti$ity outside o yria and )ra4 would e

the only way to preser$e the attracti$eness o the mo$ement or radicals.

)n )) there will e signi%cant changes. Those elements in the leadership o the mo$ement which were

associated with the region@s unni communities o yria and )ra4 and the state structures o )ra4 rom the

times o addam Aussein will gi$e way to international terrorists# tied to oreign# primarily &tlanticist

special ser$ices. )) will ha$e a de%niti$ely gloal character.

Terrorist attacks on ehal o ))G in :hina# the 8hilippines# )ndonesia# Dangladesh# *ussia# )ndia are

possile. *epeats o the terrorist attacks in <rance and Eermany are possile too. Terrorist attacks in the

centers o &tlanticist world M the K and the M are unlikely.

Turey &rmed conict etween *ussia and Turkey in 2016 is unlikely. Doth sides will egin a gradual restoration

o relations# ecause it is in the interests o oth countries. 8rogress towards this was oser$ed at the

end o 2015. Turkey will try to pre$ent a %nal reaking of o relations with *ussia. &t the same time# a

return to ull cooperation is not e"pected.

The possile entry o Turkish troops into northern yria could stall the process. 3aintaining the Turkishmilitary presence in northern )ra4 will ha$e a negati$e impact on the de$elopment o relations etween

Turkey and )ran. )n oth cases# Turkey will e orced to take this step to pre$ent the use o the Kurdish

actor to undermine the Turkish state. Turkish Kurdistan will remain a signi%cant headache or &nkara in

2016. &rmed conrontation in Kurdish,populated regions o the country will continue.

&t the same time# the nited tates will try to use Kurds as a tool o pressure on Turkey and pro$ocati$e

actions in 9orthern )ra4 and 9orthern yria# encountering the Turks and the *usso,)ranian locs again.

*approchement etween Turkey and audi &raia will continue. Turkey will use it# also or the reco$ery

o ull,riendly relations with gypt. The nited tates will try thereore to turn Turkey into a competing

link etween atar# which supports the structures 3uslim Drotherhood# and audi &raia and the &.

The Turkish,)sraeli rapprochement will take place more slowly. Gargely it will depend on the compromises

o Turkey in the process o the uni%cation o :yprus# which will it allow to implement se$eral energyprojects in the astern 3editerranean at the same time.

The change o go$ernment in Turkey is e"pected in a peaceul way or as the result o a coup with ..

support. This will occur i attempts at rapprochement will e successul. Dridging the Turkish,*ussian

diferences is not included in the plans o the nited tates.

/emenThe situation most likely or Oemen is that the audi coalition will engage in negotiations in$ol$ing the

conict etween oth )slamic radicals and separatists in southern Oemen# in order to ree the orces used

against them to %ght the Aouthis.

The Aouthis will continue to ha$e success in the deense in 9orth Oemen and in the war in the order

regions o the audi Kingdom. nder their partial control will come southern pro$inces o audi &raia.

*audi ArabiaThe decline o oil prices will ha$e the most negati$e impact or audi &raia# the conse4uent inaility to

continue the war in Oemen may lead the country to drop out as one o the acti$e players in the 3iddle

ast. The country will ha$e to resol$e domestic prolems.

)n the order with Oemen and in the parts o the oil,earing pro$inces o &raia# it is likely to see a

scenario o a hiite reellion that will e suppressed# ut the tendency o separation o hiite areas o the

country will remain during the ne"t year. The proaility o success o the reellion depends on the

audis eing ale to a$oid a hea$y deeat in Oemen# and on a withdraw rom the war just in time.



The weakening o state institutions o audi &raia will also e used y radical -ahhais who already

ha$e a serious stronghold in Oemen in the orm o territories in the &raian 8eninsula sei'ed y al,

aeda. o# a delicate situation in audi &raia will continue rom two directions/ the hiite and the radical

ala%.

The collapse o the military ad$enture in Oemen will signi%cantly weaken the position o the 3inister o

deense 3ohammad in alman# and may lead to in his remo$al rom the second position in the

hierarchy or the audi throne. This will signi%cantly weaken the position o radical audi inter$entionists

in the court. )t is most likely that crown 8rince 3ohammed )n 9ai escapes responsiility or the Oemeni

ad$enture# and will strengthen his position with support o the ..

)ountries of 0ersian 2ulf )n the 8ersian Eul it is e"pected that there will e hiite unrest in Dahrain against the ackground o the

strengthening o )ran and the weakening o audi &raia. )t is also possile that there will e a coup

instigated y the & or audi &raia# against the ultan o Cman who preers to alance etween the

-ahhai monarchies o the 8ersian Eul and )ran. The strengthening o )ran in the region will lead Cman

into the sphere o )ranian inuence# who are not interested either in &raian monarchies nor in the

and the K# with their serious inuence on the armed orces o the ultanate.

Egypt

The main prolem in gypt in 2016 will e counteracting terrorism in the inai 8eninsula. 9o signi%cantchanges in oreign and domestic policy or the country is e"pected.

0alestine)n 8alestine in the %rst hal o 2016# it is likely to e"pect the continuation o intiada kni$es. )n the Ea'a

trip there will e an increase in support or )) in the conte"t o the radical actions o the )sraelis# and o

Aamas@s ailure to gi$e an ade4uate response to the Pionist state.

9ew unrest at the Temple 3ount are e"pected in the conte"t o eschatological moods among 3uslims

and Lews# that will continue to destaili'e the situation. )n 8alestine in this conte"t# a color re$olution

against <atah and Aamas mo$ements# which di$ide power in the country# will ecome possile.

+ran)n )ran in 2016 there will e elections to the 8arliament and the &ssemly o "perts# a legislati$e and

delierati$e ody under the upreme Geader (the *ahar+# which elects the *ahar# and o$ersees his

work. )t is most likely that supporters o the incument 8resident Aassan *ouhani (the moderate

reormists+# and representati$es o conser$ati$e circles# will get the majority o seats in the 3ajlis. Ae was

ale to maintain good relations with *ussia and :hina# and urthermore strengthen them# to show

%rmness deending )ranian and general hiite interests in the 3iddle ast# and at the same time carrying

through a $ery important )ranian nuclear deal# which will ha$e great ene%ts or the de$elopment o the

economy.

The nited tates will attempt to use the elections to destaili'e the situation in )ran# ut the internal

cohesion o the society and upward economic moility olstered y the liting o sanctions will not

contriute to the success o this strategy.

The ne"t year a withdrawal o 9 and uropean nion sanctions rom )ran is e"pected. Cn the contrary#

using $arious prete"ts# the nited tates will strengthen the pressure o sanctions# such as surroundingthe )ranian program o uilding allistic missiles.

The accession o )ran to the world oil market will urther reduce the prices o oil. )t orces its main ri$al

audi &raia to ace the prospect o reducing production in order to keep prices at the same le$el. &ll o

this will hit the udget o the audi de%cit already.

1ibyaThose clans who will disagree with the agreement on orming a coalition go$ernment# will %nd new

sponsors and will join the war under new rands. )t is highly likely that some o them will e in ))# the



others will support the creation o new alternati$e structures o power. :reating a coalition go$ernment

did not signi%cantly change the situation.

8rolieration o destaili'ing trends rom Giya to other 3aghre countries is e"pected. <irst o all# to

&lgeria. The Tuareg actor cannot e o$erstated# as they well armed# and trained in the armed orces o

Giya# the tries o 3uamer Eadda% will maniest themsel$es in other &rican countries# particularly in

3ali and 3auritania.

Maghreb-e should e"pect a coup in &lgiers. The current president o the country is seriously ill and had not

appeared in pulic. *eleased in Fecemer o 2015# allegedly elonging to him were proposals or the

amendment o the :onstitution to signi%cantly limit the powers o the military and distriute those

powers among other authorities# which were pre$iously the responsiility o the 8resident. 3ost likely

these proposals were dictated y the competing groups that ocused on lieral reorms in country# and

on the complete sujugation o the country to the -est.

3ost likely# a military coup will e the answer o the generals attempt to limit their power. stalishing a

military dictatorship will e justi%ed y the intensi%cation o )slamic e"tremists# who will recei$e

assistance rom Giya amid alling li$ing standards and oil re$enues# due to the continued alling prices

or lack gold.

Afghanistan)n &ghanistan in 2016# the continuation o Talian ofensi$e is e"pected. Tensions etween radical and

moderate )slamists will continue. There will e a ew more assassination attempts on 3ullah 3ansoor.

The war etween the )slamist groupings will contriute to the rise o chaotic processes in the region and

will afect neighoring countries in :entral &sia and 8akistan. 3ost likely# we can e"pect an armed

)slamist e"port rom &ghanistan onto the territory o ormer o$iet repulics o :entral &sia# )ran and

8akistan.

Geaders o &ghanistan will recei$e# in 2016# a small amount o military aid rom 3oscow. 3oscow and

Deijing will continue to estalish relations oth with Kaul and Talian oHcials.

)t is 4uite possile to see the eginning o the oHcial negotiations etween Kaul and Talian

representati$es. The most likely place or these to take place is )slamaad. Aowe$er# no serious

documents in this year will e signed.

0aistan8akistan will continue its rapprochement with *ussia and :hina. &gainst this ackground# 8akistani,

&merican relations will deteriorate. *approchement with *ussia# which also uilds a riendly relationship

with )ndia# will contriute to the normali'ation o the )ndia,8akistan conict in Kashmir. The proaility o

an escalation o this conict will e reduced# although the prolem itsel will not e sol$ed.

The e$ents in &ghanistan will ha$e a serious impact on the de$elopment o the situation in 8akistan. -e

should e"pect an increase o terrorist acti$ity in the country.

ChinaThe 8eoples *epulic o :hina is slowly ut steadily mo$ing towards the ul%llment o its strategic goals.

ome o them are opposite to the estalished world order in the 8aci%c and outh urasia regions# which

or the last 20 years has een under the practical control o the nited tates. 3oreo$er# the gloal $ision

o the :hinese leadership is opposed to oth monopolarity as 78a" &mericana7 and also to the more

astract concept o 7gloal leadership7 with -ashington as the leader. The idea o multipolarity

(duojihua+ that egan to e de$eloped y :hinese scientists in the 1==0@s# is not only the oHcial position

o Deijing# ut more oten it seems to e the only possile world order# or the uture# in :hinese media.

&t the same time# hegemonic aspirations# whether in its pro$ocati$e demonstration o military orce



and the implementation o some projects within the ramework o ilateral and multilateral relations in

the region o outheast &sia# are widely critici'ed.

Eeographically# :hina is on the urasian periphery# although politically it has to alance etween the ea

8ower and the Gand 8ower/ the country is traditionally di$ided into the coastal 'one# ocused on trade

with the outside world# and a $ast land,mass. & skillul alance etween the regions@ interests# their

citi'ens and political elites# as it was eore# will e the main prolem o go$erning o Deijing in the

coming years. Dut i 3ao Pedong e"ploited the idea o %ghting against the ourgeois system# and Feng

Niaoping successully comined the military planning and state capitalism# then in the current

circumstances :hina needs new solutions.

Aowe$er# in 2015 :hina made progress in some areas# in 2016 there are a numer o symptoms that are

e"pected to ecome $isile# and the prolems connected with oth national characteristics and gloal

challenges will e more pronounced.

Regional 2eopolitics)n 2015# :hina was ale to sol$e a numer o serious issues o the regional geopolitics and national

interests. &lthough there are tensions o$er the control o disputed islands in the outh :hina ea#

Deijing@s eforts show that# despite the e"istence o two opposing coalitions (one consists o the @s old

partners# while others are trying to conduct a more independent policy+# :hina managed to maintain the

o$erall political line and not to change their strategy o action.Deijing preers diplomatic negotiations# or e"ample the %rst round o talks on the demarcation o the

disputed maritime territory with outh Korea already took place in Fecemer o 2015# and Deijing plans

to use this model with the other countries again i the process is successul. Aowe$er the weight o its

arguments at the negotiating tale are the product o its displays o military orce.

&lthough the nited tates wants to continue to use outh Korea as a third party to contain oth :hina

and 9orth Korea# it will not e easy# as the outh Korean economy is closely tied with :hinese one.

There is also notale success in the regional political and inrastructural projects.

)n 9epal# :hina successully used the diplomacy o sot power y sending troops and humanitarian aid

ater the earth4uake in &pril 2015# ater which 9epal signed the 3emorandum o nderstanding with

8etro :hina# which means the end to the )ndian oil import monopoly in the country. )n addition# 9epal

ecame a ounder o the &sian )nrastructure )n$estment Dank (&D))+# where the leading role remainswith :hina.

)n Thailand# :hina also managed to agree on the start o the Kra :anal construction# which must e

%nished y 2025.

The project is part o the :hinese concept o the 9ew ilk *oad through *ussia and :entral &sian

countries to urope and the ea ilk *oad linking :hina# )ndia# 8akistan and &rica. The channel length

will e aout one hundred kilometers and will cut the distance o sea lanes y 1#200 kilometers.

The new transport route creation will not only redirect cargo to the shorter route# ut also allow a aster

response to threats and challenges o :hina@s interests in the )ndian Ccean and near the &rican coast. &t

the same time :hina also points to the importance o the en$ironmental component/ the new route will

reduce :C2 emissions.

:hina pro$ides e"tensi$e assistance to 3yanmar in the de$elopment o its industry and inrastructure.:hina also aims to ecome a major in$estor or oil and natural gas de$elopment in 3yanmar. &ter the

$ictory in the parliamentary elections# the democratic opposition did not carry out any major reorms

either in internal politics or oreign relations. 3ost likely# 3yanmar will maintain good relations with

:hina and continue Deijing!s inrastructure projects.

Cn Lanuary 0th# 2015# the deepwater oil port at Kyaukphyu was oHcially opened on 3aday )sland in

3yanmar and was uilt y :hina. The oil rom the :98: oil terminal tanks will come to :hina on the main



oil pipeline# which runs parallel to the pre$iously constructed main gas pipeline to ring gas rom the

hwe lock near the *akhine coast to the 8eople@s *epulic.

&t the eginning o 2015# a new marine transport sailing company etween hanghai and Oangon was

launched# which is operated y a susidiary o the Fanish company# 3aersk.

sing 3yanmar to contain :hina# as the nited tates planned# is unlikely e$en though it is possile and

cannot e e"cluded that the will use pro"y orces# such as terrorist groups# to carry out saotageacti$ity on the main pipelines.

:hina still has a special interest in Taiwan. This year# dialogue was carried orward rom where it was set

or the last 20 years. The :hinese side elie$es that there has een an important step in the

normali'ation o relations etween the two countries. The current Taiwanese 8resident 3a Oing,jeou is

considered to e pro,:hinese# ut the second term o the partially recogni'ed state@s head comes to an

end.

The chairman o the opposition# Femocratic 8rogressi$e 8arty (F88+ Tsai )n$en runs or presidency again#

she is oriented to the -est (she studied at the Gaw chool at :ornell ni$ersity and the Gondon chool o

conomics+. The F88 ollows the idea o creating a Taiwanese nation with no cooperation with :hina.

Taiwan@s 9ational 8arty!s (Kuomintang+ candidate or the upcoming Lanuary 2016 elections will e the

Aong yuch'hu. &s the 9ational 8arty!s rating has allen# the F88 candidate is more likely to win# which

means a sharp deterioration o the :hinese,Taiwan relations.

*elations etween :hina and Bietnam are 4uite diHcult. )n eptemer o2015# the leader o :hina

oHcially $isited Bietnam# ut he had no signi%cant progress. )n Bietnam# there is the pro,&merican

action# represented y the 8rime 3inister 9guyen Tan Fung# who adheres to the reormist line# and the

pro,:hinese action# whose leaders are considered to e the general secretary o the :ommunist 8arty o

Bietnam 9guyen 8hu Trong and the Feense 3inister 8hung uang Thanh.

Bietnam recently joined the Trans,8aci%c 8artnership under leadership. This may reduce the :hinese

in$estment in the neighoring country# as well as lead to a reduction o trade turno$er etween the two

countries.

-ashington successully pro$oked Bietnam to conront :hina# although cooperation etween :hina and

Bietnam continues e$en in the military %eld (regularly conducted joint maneu$ers in the Tonkin Eul +.

3ost likely# Bietnam will continue its policy o alancing etween the interests and :hina# which is

typical or many *imland areas. Dut the escalation o the conict etween Bietnam and :hina is unlikely.

9orth Korea is under :hinese economic tutelage# although Deijing was critical on F8*K @s nuclear test.

The two countries are linked y common history# especially the conict with the in the 1=50@s.

)n general# in 2016 :hina will try to continue the old strategy o economic in$ol$ement with neighoring

countries# as it will ha$e %nancial and in$estment opportunities# while appro$ing the need to implement

numerous joint regional security projects in the national interests o each country. *ecently# Deijing

succeeded in this# with the e"ception o the noted disputes. :onse4uently# there is no reason or :hina to

stop its sot e"pansion into the region.

Eurasian 0ro(ects

:hina is acti$ely de$eloping cooperation through two main urasian projects/ the 9ew ilk *oad and the8earl 9ecklace. The %rst one pro$ides or the estalishment o inrastructure land routes through :entral

&sia to the orders# including ree trade 'ones and special economic regimes. The ormer o$iet

:entral &sian repulics are already integrated into the project. &ghanistan and 8akistan are still

prolematic# howe$er the latter has agreed to a security orces deployment proposal along the routes

that will connect the Ewadar deep,sea port to the :hinese order.

&t the D*): and :C summit in a (*ussia+# an agreement was signed etween the leaders o *ussia

and :hina to comine the project o the urasian conomic nion and the 9ew ilk *oad. )n 2015# no



signi%cant progress in this direction was made. )n 2016# a reakthrough is 4uite unlikely# although there

may e relati$ely minor changes to e discussed and coordinated y 3oscow and Deijing.

&s )ndia and 8akistan entered the :C# Deijing will e an"ious aout implementing ideas relating to its

interests to the new organi'ation memers.

The &rctic route is another strategic direction o :hina. &lthough the country has no outlet to the cold

seas# :hina has long een interested in the &rctic north# and has an ice research $essel. )n 2012# it madeits %rst trip to the 9orthern ea *oute. Deijing plans to e"pand the capailities o its icereaker eet or

the maintenance o regular transport $essels. )n 201J# it announced the creation o its own icereaker

project ased on <innish models.

:hina@s interests in the &rctic %t into the concept o Cne Delt# Cne *oad trategy (CDC*+# according to

them# the )ndian and &rctic Ccean are the southern and northern anks o the urasian land mass.

Thereore# with such a position# the 8earl 9ecklace in the outh eas and the &rctic sea route are linked.

-hile the &rctic sea route is under *ussian control# which rapidly creates military inrastructure there#

:hina could join the project not only as a regular reight carrier# ut also as a partner in the oil and gas

domain. *ussian oil and gas monopolies are lacking in in$estments to de$elop o perspecti$e %elds. )t can

use :hina# who would thus enter into a series o projects as co,managing partner and get new

technological e"perience.

&s &rica is a continent# according to the concept Aalord 3ackinder# it is organically linked with the

urasian continent# and oth o them are the -orld )sland. Cn the &rican continent# :hina pursues a

successul economic policy. &t the end o 2015# it ecame known that Fjiouti will estalish a :hinese

na$al ase# which will e the %rst oreign installation or :hina. )t is o$ious that the creation o such an

inrastructure is related to the strategic :hinese interests# not only in the Aorn o &rica on the ast :oast#

ut also in su,aharan &rica. Ei$en the loyalty to the :hinese people rom the local population (since

:hina ne$er in$aded &rica y military orce+# ne"t year we should e"pect ongoing success or Deijing in

the region.

Economy & slight decline o the :hinese economy is oreseen in 2016. Ei$en the gloal impact o :hina@s

manuacturing and ser$ices# which may relate to traditional partners in urasia and &rica and Gatin

&merica.

)n 2016# taking ad$antage o the oil prices all# :hina will acti$ely enter into agreements in this area and to

di$ersiy the domestic market o the oil products processing.

)n 9o$emer 2015# :hina ormally entered the currency asket o the )nternational 3onetary <und@s

pecial Frawing *ights (F*+ currency asket. This means that at least there will e changes in the gloal

economic structure. The F* are supplementary oreign e"change reser$e assets# emitted y the

)nternational 3onetary <und# and has only a non,cash orm in ank account records. The F* e"change

rate is pulished daily and is ased on a asket o the our major currencies/ Follar# uro# Oen and

8ound terling. Deore the euro creation in 1===# the rate was pegged to the %$e currencies asket/

Follar# Eerman 3ark# <rench <ranc# Oen and 8ound terling.

Aowe$er# :hina entering in the F* has not only %nancial# ut also geopolitical changes# as :hina has

ne$er een and is not an ally# unlike the other F* memers. )n the uture# the use o the dollar asa world reser$e currency may e an anachronism# and :hina with its efusi$e economy could signi%cantly

change the alance o orces in the oreign e"change market. )t is unlikely that this will happen in the

near uture# as the Ouan depends on leaps in :hina. Dut go$ernment regulation and the right Deijing

policies may take a stale position in the world@s oreign e"change market and make the Ouan reely

con$ertile.



3oreo$er# the :hinese eforts in the transition to payments in national currencies with its strategic

partners are noticeale. Taking into account the sanctions e"perience o *ussia and )ran# these countries

are most likely to try to settle all the ormalities to make this mechanism work as 4uickly as possile.

)n the uture# :hina will try to implement its own uni4ue system o anking operations like -)<T on a

gloal le$el # which will also a$oid mediation and super$ision in transactions.

:hina has already prepared its own system# :)8# the :hina )nternational 8ayments ystem# to pro$idecross,order transactions in Ouan. )t was oHcially launched in Cctoer o 2015. :)8 uses the

standardi'ed and adopted -)<T as the industry standard synta" or %nancial messages# and a numer

o other technical standards.

) it is eHcient# it is likely that in 2016 that %nancial institutions rom diferent countries that are under the

sanctions or are skeptical towards -)<T will transer to the :hinese payment system.

:hina also plays a leading role in the D*): 9ew Fe$elopment Dank (the D*): 9FD+. Cn Luly 1st 2015#

:hina ormally rati%ed the agreement on the D*): ank. The head4uarters o the ank is located in

hanghai. :hina has made the ma"imum contriution o RJ1 illion# or Dra'il# *ussia and )ndia M aout

R1Q illion each# and outh &rica M R5 illion.

&lthough the contriutions are intended to staili'e the national currency# :hina wants to push the D*):

9FD to cooperate with &sian )nrastructure )n$estment Dank (&))D+# initiated y :hina.

3ome 0olicy Cn the e$e o the :ongress o the :ommunist 8arty o :hina in 201I# NZ L[npZng will propose measures

towards political consolidation and the %ght against corruption. &s a result o the purges# unwanted

elements including the lieral wing o the :ommunist 8arty# could ace repression. )n :hina the death

penalty e"ists# and people who ha$e committed oHcial and economic crimes are sentenced to death. Cn

the one hand it will deter the oHcials# ut on the others had# it may e critici'ed y the and the nited

tates. Aowe$er that may e# certain changes in the top and middle administrati$e echelons are

ine$itale. They may e accompanied y arrests and new scandals.

)n 2016# reorms or state companies are planned too. The political process in the coming years depends

on how eHciently the leadership o :hina will e ale to sol$e prolems arising rom the transormation

o power structures.

Fue to the e"pected :hinese economy slowdown and rising unemployment in 2016# protests in thecountry are possile# which already occurred in 201J and 2015. The coal industry would e especially

weak# as well as cement and steel producers. )t can cause political conse4uences as the preser$ation o

low le$els o unemployment is a :hinese :ommunist 8arty priority in recent years. The &ll,:hina

<ederation o Trade nions is under the go$ernment control# which has 2Q0 million memers. The

ederation practically ollows the party economic de$elopment plan# rather than deending the interests

o trade union memers# so there may e disagreements etween the leadership and the masses.

:hina is also aced with internal separatist challenges# especially in the Tiet region and the Ninjiang

ygur &utonomous *egion. Cn Fecemer 2Ith# :hina@s highest legislati$e ody $oted or the adoption

o a law against terrorist acti$ity. )t is the %rst anti,terrorism law# which started to e considered in 201J.

)t is primarily aimed at sol$ing internal prolems# ut is also related to the international security.

This year# :hina canceled the long,term one,child policy. )t was recei$ed with enthusiasm in :hina andaims to estalish the demographic alance due to the natural aging o the population. Aowe$er in

domestic politics# there are still many restrictions on the :hinese citi'ens# which are critici'ed y other

countries. )t is clear that :hina will not compromise on national interests and security issues# ut or

pragmatic reasons may sign international treaties and commitments on ;human rights? and ;protection

o reedoms?.

)hina4s Military 0ower )n 3ay o 2015 the tate :ouncil released the ninth -hite 8aper on the country@s military strategy# which

contains the main points o the military policy.



The introduction states that 7:hina@s destiny is $itally interrelated with that o the world as a whole. &

prosperous and stale world would pro$ide :hina with opportunities# while :hina@s peaceul

de$elopment also ofers an opportunity or the whole world. :hina will unswer$ingly ollow the path o

peaceul de$elopment# pursue an independent oreign policy o peace and a national deense policy that

is deensi$e in nature# oppose hegemonism and power politics in all orms# and will ne$er seek

hegemony or e"pansion.7 This allows you to etter understand the aspirations o the :hinese 8eople@s

Gieration &rmy.

The main strategic task o :hinese &rmy includes/

M To respond to a $ariety o critical situations arising and military threats# to efecti$ely protect national

territory# territorial airspace# so$ereignty and security in the territorial waters to %rmly deend the unity

o the motherland

M To protect security and interests in new areas to protect the security interests aroad to maintain

strategic deterrence o nuclear retaliation

M To 8articipate in regional and international cooperation in the security %eld

M To protect peace in the region and in the world

M To strengthen counteraction against enemy intrusions# separatism and terrorism

M To ensure national security and social staility

M To assist in an emergency# to protect the legitimate interests and to ensure the national security

protection and pulic support or the national economy creation and other tasks.

)t shows the international signi%cance o the :hinese armed orces and their potential use outside the

country.

&ccording to the oreign policy concept# the de$elopment and strengthening o military cooperation with

oreign countries means raising their cooperation with uropean countries# the de$elopment o

traditionally riendly military relations with &rica# Gatin &merica and the outh 8aci%c. )t is supposed to

deepen cooperation in the %eld o security within the ramework o the hanghai :ooperation

Crgani'ation# increasing the deense ministers participation in the &&9 orum# the &&9 *egional

<orum on ecurity# the hangri,Ga Fialogue# the Fialogue on )nternational ecurity )ssues in Lakarta# the

-estern 8aci%c 9a$al ymposium countries# and other structures and cooperation organi'ations.

3oreo$er# the Niangshan <orum and other multilateral e$ents seeking to ocus on assistance or the

estalishment o a new ramework or cooperation on security and maintenance o peace# staility and

prosperity in the &sia,8aci%c region are e"pected.

&ccording to statistics# :hina increases its deense spending e$ery year. 9ow the country is the second

ater the nited tates in terms o military spending y EF8. &ccording to the )8*)# in 201J# it was 2.1

o the EF8 making up R216 illion. Aowe$er# some elie$e that these %gures are too low# and the reality

o :hina is spending more money. )t is o$ious that in 2016# :hina is unlikely to dramatically reduce its

deense spending# since according to its plan# it must continue to moderni'e the land# air and na$al

orces# as well as make a reakthrough in the space industry.

&n important element is the rapid de$elopment o the :hinese 9a$y eet# which is used to %ght pirates in

the &den Eul and in other trouled regions. &s a part o the 8earl 9ecklace project# :hina needs to carry

out its support or maritime communications. )n addition# the current tensions in the outh :hina ea

orce Deijing to e ready to demonstrate their na$al power. 3eanwhile# the :hinese 9a$y uses its sot

power# or e"ample# a medical ship pre$iously successully carried out missions in diferent regions. )n

the near uture we should e"pect the :hinese na$y to increase in strength.ntil recently# :hina had only one aircrat carrier# Giaoning# o o$iet production (used since 2012+.

:urrently they ha$e egun the creation o their own :hinese aircrat carrier o 110#000 tons

displacement. )t was planned that it will e launched in 2020. Dut it is most proale that its creation will

e accelerated.

&t the end o Fecemer 2015# the outh :hina ea eet recei$ed three new $essels.



Cther new military,industrial comple"es in :hina should also e e"pected. Feng Niaoping@s ormula on

military and ci$ilian comination# peace and no peace# de$elopment o military production with support

o ci$ilian production remains rele$ant e$en or the eginning o the third millennium.

-ithout e"ception# the military,industrial corporations o :hina are working in the ci$il sphere. o the

nuclear industry in :hina# pre$iously released mainly military products# ollows the policy o ;nuclear

energy use in all areas o management.? &mong the main acti$ities o the industry is the construction o

nuclear power plants and wide de$elopment o isotope technology. & similar situation is in the space

sector# ci$il a$iation# automoti$e# etc.

&t the same time# in 2016# military reorms are planned# which oresees a signi%cant reduction in

personnel# reorgani'ation o military districts and the retirement o many oHcers. Deijing aims to

conduct an orderly change and adaptation o ormer military personnel into the ci$ilian sector.

&s the %rst law on %ghting with terrorism is adopted# :hina now can legally send its troops aroad. -hile

there were speculations aout :hinese special orces participating in yria# in reality the use o certain

military units could egin in 2016 in 8akistan and &ghanistan# where :hina has inrastructure projects.

)t should also e noted that :hinese peacekeepers are now on a mission in outhern udan# 3ali# Gieria#

udan and the Femocratic *epulic o the :ongo.

)n eptemer# during his speech at the I0th session o the 9 Eeneral &ssemly# Ni Linping said that:hina is ready to join the 9 new system. )t shows the serious intentions o :hina to legally participate in

peacekeeping operations around the world under the 9 mandate.

)t is unlikely to e"pect that in 2016 :hina will enter into an open military conict with the nited tates or

any regional country. $en i there is a possile escalation o the disputed islands with Lapan or other

countries using military orce# it is likely that it would e an isolated instance# and the parties would e

interested in 4uickly resol$ing the matter.

+nternet and the )hinese Role:hina is the originator o the so$ereign )nternet idea and successully comines modern communication

technology with the state ideology. The Ereat :hinese %rewall# i.e. content %ltering# ecame a narrati$e o

Deijing cyer,politics. This approach shows that de%ning and stressing oundaries in cyerspace is not a

uni$ersal norm# ut depends on the ci$ili'ational identity. ) -estern countries# ollowing in line with

political lieralism# preer to comine )nternet reedoms with the ree cyer,politics instruments (we

2.0diplomacy# $irtual emassy support o the cyer,acti$ists in other countries+# the non,-estern

go$ernments insist on national control o$er the )nternet space. )n other words# cyerspace is also a

attleground o orces deending two diferent world orders/ monopolarity and multipolarity.

Fecemer 16,1=# the :hinese held the -orld )nternet orum in -u'hen. )t is an alternati$e to the kind o

e$ents which take place in the -est. )t was attended y more than 10 thousand representati$es o

go$ernments# international organi'ations# usiness companies and ci$il society. &ccording to the orum

agenda ;&n )nterconnected -orld hared and Eo$erned y &ll , Duilding a :yerspace :ommunity o

hared Festiny?# the deate was concocted on the uture o gloal )nternet space.

)t is clear that :hina will continue to work towards more strict control o$er the gloal )nternet# and will

insist on ac4uiring the rights to domain names and control o$er them rom the ):&99 company (&+# to

the )nternational Telecommunication nion under 9 auspices# or to the new international structure.

)n addition# technology companies will compete with &merican and Dritish manuacturers o technical

e4uipment. )n 2015# :hina@s Auawei has continued its successul e"pansion in the markets o many

countries# ofering all kinds o ser$ices and solutions in telecommunications. The ollowing year# this

trend will continue# despite the constant criticism o gloal cyer,espionage y :hinese companies.

)onclusions)n general# :hina will maintain a predictale and rational policy. )t may not e liked y some o the

neighoring states# as well as y the traditional gloal players/ the and the . Aowe$er# the policies



and international amitions o :hina ha$e to e considered. specially i one considers the act that

Deijing operates in conjunction with its traditional partners in a numer o organi'ations# as well as within

the $arious alliances/ the :C# D*):# &8:# and others.

&s or domestic policy# compared to the prolems in other countries# the :hinese issues don!t seem to e

so great as to represent an e"istential threat to the state or to the political system. There may e some

riction and crisis situations# in which the country@s leadership will acti$ely inter$ene i it is necessary#

using pre$entati$e orce.

India

0olitical 3induismThe term o )ndia@s 8rime 3inister 9arendra 3odi and his Dharatiya Lanata 8arty (DL8+ ha$e pro$ided

)ndia@s oreign policy with additional so$ereignty and agency. )ndian politics e"perience gradual change#

thereore this trend ecame more apparent in 2015. :arrying out a multi,$ector policy and maintaining

riendly relations with -estern countries and D*): memer,states# 3odi!s )ndia continued the course o

the pre$ious go$ernment. 9e$ertheless# a undamentally diferent ideological ase suggests that this

strategy is to continue.nlike the )ndian 9ational :ongress# Dharatiya Lanata 8arty!s orientation is ased on a perspecti$e o the

historical identity o )ndia. -hile most o the pre$ious )ndian leaders were secularist )ndian nationalists#

the current prime minister 9arendra 3odi and Dharatiya Lanata 8arty ha$e a diferent political ideology

ased on traditional Aindu religious identity (Aindut$a+.

The main ideological oundation o 3odi!s )ndian oreign policy places an emphasis on protection o

traditional $alues# and opposition to western gloalism. -hile it appears e"ile and passi$e# it is actually

stern when need e. )ndia continues strategic cooperation with *ussia and :hina# aimed at the

construction o a multipolar world# while attempting to maintain relations with the -est.

)ompeting with )hina&nother trend in 2015 was the act that many analysts ha$e said that :hina and )ndia are currently in a

:old -ar. This primarily depends on :hinese political and economic interests in a traditional )ndian 'oneo inuence Dangladesh# ri Ganka# 9epal# struggle or inuence o$er the 3aldi$es# unsol$ed territorial

conicts in the north Kashmir# northeastern &runachal 8radesh state# and increasing :hinese inuence

o$er &ghanistan and 8akistan.

:ompeting with :hina# )ndia has e"pressed its readiness to rely on Lapanese support# which is certain to

return to the world scene as an acti$e player. e$eral strategic agreements were signed during the

Lapanese 8rime 3inister!s $isit to 9ew Felhi. The agreements included cooperation on military

technology# construction o )ndia@s %rst high,speed railway# and nuclear power.

9e$ertheless# this year!s results o the )ndian 8rime 3inister 9arendra 3odi!s $isit to :hina indicate that

the rumors on the :old -ar etween )ndia and :hina are e"aggerated. The $isit demonstrated :hinese

interest to in$est in )ndia. The two countries signed an agreement o R22 illion. )mportant areas o

cooperation include de$elopment o renewale energy# iron and steel# and ,commerce.

*trengthening cooperation with RussiaThere is no riction in )ndia!s relations with *ussia and strengthening economic and trade cooperation is a

decisi$e priority or the political leadership o oth nations. )ndia and *ussia ha$e a long,standing

historical relationship and the rapprochement o the nations will contriute to the reinorcement o

*ussian and )ndian geopolitics. &ccess to )ndia and the )ndian Ccean was $ital to the *ussians during the

1=th and 20th centuries. Furing this time period# traditionally reerred to as ;The Ereat Eame?# the

*ussian and Dritish mpires competed o$er control and inuence o$er much o :entral &sia. The

*ussian,)ndian meridian geopolitical alliance derails the &tlanticist &naconda strategy on the urasian



Aeartland. &s a result# *ussia may e ale to gain access to the southern part o the urasian *imland

and a strategic area o the )ndian Ccean.

)ndia# in its turn# is ocused on ac4uiring *ussian technology# natural resources# and most importantly

energy. Furing the $isit o 8rime 3inister 9arendra 3odi!s $isit in Fecemer 2015 to *ussia# the country

agreed on joint inrastructure projects o R1 illion. )ndia has continued to uy *ussian weapons#

strengthening *ussia!s position as )ndia!s main weapon supplier.

The undamental asis o deense cooperation with *ussia was the transer o *ussian deense

technology to )ndia. Fiscussed were the prospects o joint de$elopment o multipurpose %ghter and

transport aircrat. <urthermore# an agreement or the production o Ka,226 helicopters in )ndia was

signed. The cooperation with *ussia in this area will pro$ide )ndia with the opportunity to create its own

military,industrial comple". Thus increasing )ndia!s independence and encouraging economic growth.

Regional 2eopolitics)n the conte"t o regional policy in outh &sia# )ndia is trying to maintain its dominant position in its

traditional area o inuence/ 9epal# Dhutan# ri Ganka# Dangladesh and e"pand it to 3auritius# the

3aldi$es and the eychelles in the )ndian Ccean# as well as to strengthen their position in &&9 on the

ackground o competition with :hina.

3odi ecame the %rst 8rime 3inister since 1=Q1 who $isited the eychelles. Furing his $isit to the

eychelles and 3auritius in 3arch 2015# he called or the de$elopment o the )ndian Ccean *im

&ssociation# which includes the countries o audi &raia# ast &rica# 3alaysia and )ndonesia# )ndia#

&ustralia and )ran.

This year# )ndia decided to in$est R1Q million in ri Ganka# in addition to R1.6 illion argained in direct

in$estments. Doth countries decided to intensiy deense cooperation in the )ndian Ccean.

)n 2015# )ndia continued trying to increase its inuence in &ghanistan# raising direct in$estment in the

country and assisting in a numer o inrastructure projects. The most notale was the creation o a

parliamentary center in Kaul# in Fecemer 2015# which 3odi $isited himsel.

3oreo$er# 3odi has shown a willingness to normali'e relations with 8akistan. The leaders o 8akistan

and )ndia held a historic meeting within the ramework o the :C and D*): summits in *ussia. &t the

same time# )ndia has ecome a memer o the hanghai :ooperation Crgani'ation# in which *ussia and

:hina play the main roles. Aowe$er# this meeting did not lead to signi%cant results.

&t the turn o the year# 3odi made an une"pected $isit to 8akistan# ater $isiting 3oscow and Kaul. The

normali'ation o relations with 8akistan and )ndia@s interest in the peaceul process in &ghanistan are

connected to important implementation o key energy projects like the oil and gas pipelines through the

country rom )ran and *ussia# to )ndia.

)n Fecemer 2015# *am 3adha$# DL8 general secretary# at the &l La'eera TB channel said that he hoped to

create a Ereat )ndia. &ccording to him# one o the major geopolitical prolems o his party is to create

&khand Dharat# or ;undi$ided )ndia?# which would include )ndia# 8akistan and Dangladesh. &ccording to

the ruling party# their aim is to carry out the creation o a strategic space in outh &sia. Fiscussions on

outh &sian integration can ecome a new trend in 2016.

Attention to 5iaspora3odi ecame the %rst prime minister to place a large emphasis o ocus on the )ndian diaspora. This

ocus is inuenced y his $iewpoint o )ndia as a center o the Aindu world within the Aindut$a ideology.

<urthermore# popularity o the Dharatiya Lanata 8arty and the *ashtriya wayamse$ak angh structures

in -estern countries is another contriuting actor. This importance o the )ndian interests loying in

the -est is underestimated. The present )ndian leadership delierately utili'es the diaspora community

to inuence political and economic de$elopments in their adopted nations. 3oreo$er# the )ndian

leadership hopes that the diaspora can ecome a source o in$estment in the )ndian economy.

0olitical problems at home



&t the same time# 3odi has aced a numer o issues in domestic politics. The issues are primarily

ocused on the austerity measures# and the strengthening o Aindu radicalism# which causes other

religious groups to react# especially 3uslims# and ikhs.

The main task in economics is the adoption o a uniorm ta" code or all )ndian states# promoted y the

opposition in the )ndian parliament. Fissatisaction o trade unions and pulic ser$ants is caused y the

plans o restructuring and impro$ing the eHciency o state,owned enterprises y reducing the share o

pulic participation and the role o pri$ate in$estors.

)n 2015# the DL8 lost the elections in the capital region o Felhi and Dihar state mostly due to neolieral

trends in its economic policies and the o$er,e"ploitation o prime minister 9arendra 3odi!s image. )n

oth cases# the DL8 lost to the regional political orces o the let or center,let wings. )n the capital# the

$ictory was achie$ed y &am &admi 8arty# and :ommon 3an@s 8arty created in 2011 y )ndia &gainst

:orruption campaign acti$ists. )ndia &gainst :orruption in its structure# work methods and slogans was

similar to the &ra pring protest mo$ements.

20# $orecastome orecasts or )ndia in 2016 include/ the continuation o 2015 trends in 2016. )ndia will remain multi,

$ector# while e"tending the course to uild a multipolar world. )ndian interest in -estern technology and

in$estment. Cpen conict with the -est is not e"pected. Aowe$er# )ndia!s strengthening position#

promotion o a multipolar agenda and the increasing importance o *ussian,)ndian relations will possilyresult in intensi%ed eforts y the -est or regime change in )ndia.

+ntensi6cation of Russian-+ndian relations&s )ndian,*ussian interactions intensiy# *ussia can help )ndia not only to re,e4uip the army and na$y# ut

also to create their own efecti$e military,industrial comple". 3oreo$er# only *ussia with its energy

resources and technologies in the nuclear energy %eld can help to stop the growing )ndian energy,

hungry.

Dy comining the growing industry and huge population o )ndia with *ussian technology# science# and

resources# as well as with *ussian military power# 8utin and 3odi can make this union an efecti$e

opponent o -estern inuence in the region and in the world.

)n addition# we should e"pect the e"pansion o )ndian and *ussian cooperation in security and %ghting

against )slamic terrorism. )) regards )ndia as one o its possile ojecti$es in the coming year. )ndia is acountry with one o the largest 3uslim communities in the world and can e targeted y terrorists. This

threat e"tends to *ussia as well.

Relations with )hinaFespite geopolitical competition with :hina# oth countries share a common $ision o the world!s uture#

and thereore they will make common strategic decisions afecting the uture o the gloal system in

general. Doth )ndia and :hina want to de$elop mutually ene%cial economic cooperation. This trend will

continue in 2016. *elations with :hina will remain stale# ut competiti$e. )n order to continue the %ght

or inuence in ri Ganka# the 3aldi$es# 9epal# 8akistan# &ghanistan and Dhutan# )ndia will attempt to

strengthen its position in outheast &sia# including Thailand# Gaos# )ndonesia# and Bietnam. Decause o

competition with :hina# )ndia will continue its policy o rapprochement with Lapan.

7ight for +ndian Ocean)ndia will continue to attempt to estalish itsel as a leading maritime power in the )ndian Ccean. This is

aimed at oth collaoration with *ussia and Lapan in deense technology# as well as the interaction with

regional nations.

)n 2016# )ndia will ace :hina# as well as audi &raia in an attempt to ortiy its inuence in the )ndian

Ccean. The audi &raian inuence includes an )slamic actor# as the majority o the population o the

3aldi$es are unni 3uslims.

Afghanistan



Fespite competition with :hina or inuence o$er the &ghan go$ernment# oth great powers are

interested in resol$ing the inter,&ghan conict. Thereore# along with :hina# )ndia will insist on

negotiations with moderate Talian and support the destruction o )) units and radical Talian. )n

&ghanistan# )ndian interests will ace # and Eul countries interests# which are not interested in peace

or $arious reasons. The normali'ation o relations in &ghanistan raises the 4uestion o the %nal

withdrawal o 9&TC troops rom this key central &sian country and contriutes to the implementation o

key energy projects# which will tie :hina with )ran# )ndia with )ran# and )ndia with *ussia. The will try tomaintain its inuence in &ghanistan# and the Eul countries# in order to maintain )ndian dependence on

its oil and gas supplies.

upport or )slamic radicals in &ghanistan y the and the Eul states is to increase# so this will ha$e an

impact directly on )ndian and 8akistani security. )n 2016 there is a high proaility o new terrorist attacks

in 8akistan and the resumption o )slamic terrorist acti$ity in )ndia.

0aistanThe possiility o serious )ndo,8akistani conict is unlikely. Doth nations continue gradual con$ergence. &

positi$e actor is the reduction o 8akistan!s dependence on the nited tates# and a large part o the

country!s elite will support multi,polarity# as a result o the nited tates! inaility to ofer positi$e

de$elopment to the )slamic world. Aowe$er# in $iew o the long,standing religious conicts# and :hinese,

)ndian competition# eforts towards the creation o integration associations in outh &sia will not happen.

9e$ertheless# this project will prompt discussions among )ndian elites in $iew o its interests.

Threat of color re%olution)n the domestic sphere 3odi continues to conduct policy reorm and attempts to keep radical Aindus

rom undermining the internal peace with the largest 3uslim community in the world outside o

)ndonesia.

3odi!s uture $isits to -estern countries and the 3iddle ast will e accompanied y supporti$e mass

demonstrations o the )ndian diaspora. &t the same time# the -est will attempt to moili'e his

opponents# oth within the nation and the diaspora.

)n 2016# it is $ery likely that the -est will e"periment with the possiility to organi'e a color re$olution

against 3odi in )ndia. )t will use primarily the Falits (oppressed+ whose low social status together with the

great 4uantity makes them an important resource o mass protests.The second disrupti$e orce could e )ndian 3uslims# oten earul o DL8 Aindu radical $iolence. )t is

possile that terrorist attacks will e organi'ed in order to incite religious strie within the country y

terrorist organi'ations associated with 8akistan. Thus 3odi!s opponents kill two irds with one stone/

they will try to spoil relations with 8akistan# and cause strie among the religious communities in the

country.

The third su$ersi$e power will consist o -estern inuenced networks# including tested during the anti,

corruption riots o 2011 and 2012# 9EC and 8rotestant sects.

conomic prolems# corruption# unresol$ed social prolems will e used to organi'e protests in the

capital# the legislature is controlled y pro,-estern networks adherents ha$ing e"perience in organi'ing

the protests o the color re$olution type.

&t the same time# the -estern media and the opposition )ndian media will increase the demoni'ation o 3odi# painting him as a dictator and a leader o Aindu e"tremists who $iolate religious reedom and

restrain non,Aindus rights.

*eparatist scenarioThe -est will also use internal )ndian contradictions to stimulate separatist tendencies in the 8unja

where the ikhs li$e# as well as the interior o the main part o the country@s northeastern states o

Tripura# &ssam# -est Dengal (Eurkhas+# 9agaland.



The strengthening o Aindu radicalism while the DL8 authorities rule# has alarmed not only 3uslims ut

also the ikhs. &lthough in terms o the Aindut$a ideology# ikhism is an autochthonous )ndian tradition#

unlike :hristians or 3uslims# the ikhs are not regarded as a oreign element. 9e$ertheless# the radical

Aindus see them as strangers. )t is likely that e"ternal orces will attempt to start a conict in 2016.

)on8icts at the borders)n north,eastern )ndia# the intensi%cation o conicts with separatists rom Dodo and 9agais are $ery

likely. )n $iew o the political crisis in 9epal# which in$ol$es )ndia and :hina# and the political crisis and the

strengthening o the )slamists in Dangladesh# the region in the coming year could e a new ocus o

conict. & predominantly 3uslim country# one o the poorest in the world# can ecome a ase or $arious

)slamist mo$ements# attacking )ndia. )) has already made a series o terrorist attacks in Dangladesh in

2015. )t is likely that )ndia will e orced to inter$ene in the internal political conicts in 9epal and

Dangladesh.

Sub-Saharan Africa

)n 2015# &rica continued to e the poorest and the most dangerous region o the world. )n addition to

the dangerous diseases and the &)F epidemic# the region sufers rom numerous ci$il wars# trial and

religious conicts# accompanied y horri%c acts o rutality# cannialism# sla$ery o women and children#

and sla$e trade. The so$ereignty o the majority o countries is still purely nominal# large multinational

corporations and oreign go$ernments continue to %ght or control o$er the mineral rich areas.

*trengthening )hinese +n8uence2015 was marked y a continuation o the trend o a strengthening :hinese inuence in the roader

region. )n Fecemer o 2015# Lohannesurg held the :hina,&rica :ooperation ummit# which adopted

se$eral programs that demonstrate the trend o increasing :hinese presence in the region. The summit

adopted the Lohannesurg Feclaration and the 201Q 8lan o )mplementation. The document shows in

particular that :hina has rejected its pre$ious strategy# ased only on ilateral relations# and seeks to see

the institution o its &rican policy o &rican regional integration# in particular through the &rican nion.

The main tasks o :hina in &rica include the ollowing areas/

1. :ontinent industriali'ation prolongation. :hina will continue the construction o industrial parks and

will assist &rican countries in the technicians! trainings.

2. &rican agriculture de$elopment

. Transport inrastructure de$elopment# including roads# railways# a$iation# ports# power grids and

telecommunications

J. <ree trade agreements with &rican states

5. Fe$elopment o en$ironmentally riendly technologies

6. <ight against po$erty in &rica

I. :ontinent,wide de$elopment o medicines and medical research

Q. Fe$elopment o cultural ties and cultural e"changes

=. Fet write,of or the poorest &rican countries# whose payment period ends in 2015

10. ecurity cooperation. :hina will support the estalishment and operation o the &rican tandy

<orce.

-hat is peculiar aout the :hinese approach to &rica is that the :hinese# unlike uropeans and

&mericans# don!t connect cooperation with the de$elopment o lieral democratic institutions# and

interact e$en with authoritarian regimes. &nother ad$antage o &rican cooperation with :hina is that

:hina ofers in$estment and implementation o inrastructure projects cheaper than their -estern



competitors. )t also ofers loans at low interest rates to countries with low credit rating# recei$ing in

e"change an e"clusi$e right to de$elop oil and other %elds.

)t is signi%cant that# this year# :hina decided to uild the %rst o$erseas na$al ase# and it will e situated

in &rica# in Fjiouti.

3orn of Africa region

)n 2015# increased :hinese presence was particularly perceptile in Fjiouti# a small country in eastern&rica. Fespite the lack o natural resources# the country has a signi%cant strategic importance# as it

together with Oemen closes access rom the *ed ea to the )ndian Ccean through the Da,el,3ande.

Fjiouti already has &merican and <rench military ase and a small Lapanese contingent. <or :hina# it is

important to gain a oothold in the region to control the sea route linking the )ndian Ccean with the

3editerranean $ia the *ed ea and the ue' :anal.

&t the :hina,&rica :ooperation ummit in Lohannesurg# :hina announced the estalishment o its own

na$al ase in the ast &rican country. The oHcial prete"t is the %ght against omali pirates# ut in act#

the :hinese ase in Fjiouti is an important component o the ul%llment o the the 3aritime ilk *oad

project that will connect :hina with -est urasia through the )ndian Ccean# the *ed ea# and the ue'.

)n Fecemer o 2015# ater the announcement o :hina@s plans# Fjiouti aced a collision etween

supporters and opponents o the current 8resident )smail Cmar Euelleh. The opposition nion or

9ational al$ation and the nited tates used this incident to accuse the country@s authorities o

corruption and impropriety. The urged the Fjiouti leadership to respect the opposition# to allow it to

hold peaceul meetings and e"ercise reedom o speech.

The largest country in the region# omalia# continued to e one o the most prolematic areas o &rica.

There is still no uni%ed statehood in the country. & serious prolem is the local radical )slamists@

e"pansion to other countries. )n 2015# the omali militant groups# al,haaa# attacked the uilding o

the ni$ersity :ollege in the Kenyan town o Earissa# killing 1JI people. The &l,haaa method is the

use o modern network technology# music# the )nternet# and resemles the )) style. ome leaders o the

actions swore allegiance to the )slamic state.

*udan and Eritrea in /emen war )n 2015# udan continued to mo$e towards a closer union with audi &raia. Fespite the persistence o

anti,-estern rhetoric# with the Cmar Aassan al,Dashir regime managing to estalish good relations with*ussia and :hina# udan in act is an ally o the main partner o the &tlanticist powers in the )slamic

world# audi &raia. udan acti$ely participated in the audi inter$ention in Oemen. )n 2015# the relations

with outh udan remained stale during the conict. The udanese leaders reached an agreement with

the separatists in Farur# the region o the Dlue 9ile# and outh Kordoan# on the si" month armistice that

ended in &pril 2016.

ritrea supported the Eul tates in the Oemen war too# pro$iding its airspace and territorial waters or

the anti, Aouthi coalition. &ccording to some estimates# aout J00 soldiers rom the &rican country took

part in the Oemeni war. ritrea is under the 9 ecurity :ouncil sanctions on charges o supporting the

&l,haaa militants in omalia.

7rench .est Africa

)n -estern &rica# one o the 2015 trends was the increase o )slamic e"tremism. &n attack on a hotel in3ali# on 9o$emer 20th# 2015# when more than 0 people were killed# was carried out y &l,3uraitun

terrorists groups who had sworn allegiance to )). The militants o the largest )slamist organi'ation in the

3aghre and the -estern ahel# &l,aeda in the )slamic 3aghre# and militants o the 3acina Gieration

<ront ()slamists o the <ulani ethnic group+ announced their in$ol$ement in the terrorist attack.

This year# 3ali aced more than twel$e terrorist attacks# esides the already mentioned organi'ations# the

militants o the &nsar al,Fin )slamist group# eing acti$e in areas populated y Tuaregs.



"tremist groups announced that their main task was the elimination o the <rench neo,colonialism in

the region. 3ost o the ormer <rench colonies in -est &rica are still politically and economically

dependent on their ormer colonial master. ) it is necessary# the <rench organi'ation will promote coups

or directly participate in them# as was the case in 2011 in :ote d@)$oire.

)n 2015# in :ote d!)$oire# 8resident &lassane Cuattara was re,elected or the second term he came to

power ater the 2010 elections and# with the help o the armed inter$ention o <rench troops# his

predecessor was o$erthrown. <rance thereore once again consolidated its control o$er the ormer

colony# rich in oil and natural gas# as well as diamonds.

)n the neighoring country# Durkina <aso# where in 201J there was a coup with appro$al o the nited

tates and <rance# in eptemer o 2015# another attempt at a military coup took place# ut it was not

successul# as it was sharply critici'ed y <rance. Cn 9o$emer 2=th# the new president Kaore# a senior

unctionary o the ormer regime# was elected.

Nigeria9igeria is unstale too. )n 2015# the go$ernment troops ailed to pre$ail o$er the Doko Aaram group. The

Doko Aaram militants entrenched in the north,eastern country states# capturing more than I0 o Dorno

state ater the %ght and massacre in Lanuary 2015. Terrorists sei'ed a multinational orce@s military ase#

which would ha$e to %ght against them. )n the same month# the Doko Aaram militants attacked a military

ase in neighoring :ameroon.

The joint eforts o the armed orces o 9igeria# 9iger# :had and :ameroon deployed ofensi$e against

the Doko Aaram# as a result they were ale to regain some o the areas pre$iously occupied y militants.

Aowe$er# despite the statements made y 9igerian oHcials# Doko Aaram managed to maintain comat

capaility. This year# the group made numerous terrorist attacks in 9igeria# :had# 9iger# :ameroon.

3arch 1# 2015# in the general elections in 9igeria# the ormer general 3uhammadu Duhari# who has

held this post rom 1=Q to 1=Q5# won. 8re$iously he came to power ater a coup. )n 2015# the unni

3uslim Dukhari deeated the current :hristian 8resident Eoodluck Lonathan. The elections demonstrated

the e"isting religious di$ision o the 9igerian nation# natural or countries ased on di$erse ethnic

elements o ormer Dritish colonial institutions. Dukhari was elected mainly y northern 3uslim states#

Lonathan M y the southern :hristian one.

The 9igerian leadership under Dukhari consisted almost entirely o unni 3uslims. 8eople rom thenorth o the country are the source o anti,:hristian hostility. The :hristians li$e in the most de$eloped#

the oil,producing southern states. The all in oil prices seriously afected 9igerian staility as the most

powerul country in the region and the largest oil,producing &rican country. -ith alling re$enues# which

are mostly spent on security maintenance and the %ght against the Doko Aaram# the redistriution o

income against oil,producing areas o the north contriutes to the re$i$al o separatist tends.

&nother 9igerian security issue could e the conict etween the security orces o 9igeria and the

9igerian hiites# represented primarily y the )slamic 3o$ement o 9igeria. Cn Fecemer 12th# 2015#

9igerian troops killed up to 1000 hiites in Paria# a northern town. Cn Fecemer 1th# )rahim Pak'aky#

the 9igerian hiite spiritual leader# was arrested. Furing the arrest# he was shot multiple time. Ais ate is

unknown. Cne o his wi$es and two sons were killed.

)t led to numerous peaceul 9igerian hiite protests. )ranian authorities demanded an e"planation romthe country@s leadership.

The hiite community is acti$ely engaged in proselyti'ing among 3uslims in northern 9igeria# pre$iously

used as )ran@s sot power. 3oreo$er# the hiite community in 9igeria ecame the largest in &rica (aout

one million people+. )n the north o 9igeria audi &raia also seeks to e"tend its inuence# unding the

mos4ues and construction o )slamic centers in the country. The nited tates acti$ely opposed the

strengthening o )ranian inuence in 9igeria.



)n Fecemer 2015# 8resident Duhari entered the audi coalition against terrorism which rather is

directed against the pro,)ranian hiite mo$ements than the -ahhai radicals. The hiite massacre

ollowed these e$ents. 9ow we can e"pect a serious conrontation o 9igeria and )ran# and the opening o

the &rican <ront in the audi,)ranian conrontation.

5emocratic Republic of )ongo& stagnant conict in the eastern part o the Femocratic *epulic o the :ongo continued to e one o

the actors that destaili'es the situation in &rica. )n 2015# the action o the central go$ernment against

the reels in the region continued. )n 201 the F*: Eo$ernment led a military action against the reel

Tutsis in the 9orth Ki$u pro$ince# supported rom *wanda# and then in 2015 it took measures against the

Autu reel groups in outh Ki$u. )n addition to the repercussions o the conict etween Tutsis and

Autus# which was accompanied y genocide on oth sides throughout the second hal o the 20th

century# the conict in eastern :ongo has an economic inuence the region has signi%cant reser$es o

gold# tin and tantalum.

The eastern part o the *epulic o the :ongo (the Ki$u region+ is the arthest rom the capital# Kinshasa#

and has direct orders with *wanda and Durundi# eing geographically and ethnically like these two

countries# and a part o the Ereat Gakes region.

ince 1==6# the long,term ci$il war# with $arying intensity# transormed the eastern part o the :ongo

territory# ruled y military orces# where the risk o a new large,scale conict always e"ists. :annialism#mass murder and rape ecame a part o daily lie in the country. The world@s largest 9 peacekeepers

contingent (22.000 people+ can!t normali'e the situation.

9urundi )risis)n the neighoring ast &rican country# Durundi# the 2015 year was marked y destaili'ation o the

country# which led the &rican nion to introduce a peacekeeping contingent to the country in Fecemer

2015. Fespite the small si'e# the destaili'ed relations in Durundi can cause a chain reaction in

neighoring *wanda# Durundi and the Femocratic *epulic o the :ongo# as it was ater the Tutsi

genocide in *wanda# which ecame the trigger o the second :ongo (&rican -orld+ -ar.

)n &pril 2015# it that the decision o incument 8resident 8ierre 9kurun'i'a to run or the third time or

the presidency# was announced. )n response# the opposition organi'ed mass protests in the capital#

Dujumura. 3ay 1th,1Qth# 2015# there was a coup attempt against the president# which ailed. The Lune21st elections# which opposition candidates oycotted# were held. & numer o 9kurun'i'a oHcials let

the country or Delgium# accusing their ormer ally o usurping power. Deore and ater the elections# the

country aced mass protests# reminiscent o the :olor *e$olutions# and a numer o opposition acti$ists

and ollowers o the president were killed. The protesters were supported y the massy. Taking

acti$e part in protests# the students o Durundi ni$ersity camped ne"t to the &merican massy# hoping

that the & will protect them. &ter the election# in the northern part o the country# the neighoring

pro,&merican *wanda reels conducted raids.

Cn Fecemer 11th# 2015\ the reels attacked the capital# and killed more than QI people. &ter the raid#

the &rican nion announced plans to deploy a peacekeeping mission in Durundi. )n response# the

leadership announced that it will regard the peacekeeper@s mission on its territory as aggression. The

opposition orces announced the creation o a military group # the *epulican <orces o Durundi.

The conict in Durundi has o$ious traits o the :olor *e$olution# which are traditionally used too$erthrow a regime that the nited tates dislikes. Fespite the act that the economy o Durundi is now

largely dependent on the cofee e"port# the country has natural resources that are o interest to oreign

actors. This is primarily nickel %elds (Durundi is the 10th world country in this domain+# the current

go$ernment intends to attract :hina to de$elop it.

:hina plans to uild a railway to link Durundi with )ndian Ccean ports in Tan'ania. The project allows or

:hinese e"pansion in the F*:# as the country is close to Durundi.



The possile :hinese e"pansion in the region orces the and its allies# that supports the opponents o

the current regime# to take measures.

The &rican nion is interested in pre$enting a ci$il war in the country and in maintaining in Durundi a

5000 strong contingent in the & peacekeeping mission in omalia# and thereore is ready to occupy

Durundi in order to pre$ent the conict rom spreading# and will use troops in the most important region

o the Aorn o &rica.

The 4uestion o humanitarian inter$ention under the 9 ag is raised repeatedly in the ecurity :ouncil#

ut :hina# with *ussian support# strongly opposes it# calling it a $iolation o Durundi@s so$ereignty.

)on8ict in )entral African Republic)n 2015# the interim go$ernment o the :entral &rican *epulic postponed the general election se$eral

times. This mo$e was aimed at ending the ongoing ci$il war etween groups o :hristians and 3uslims.

Cn Fecemer 0th# 2015# the :entral &rican *epulic hosted the %rst round o presidential and

parliamentary elections. The ormer <rench colony de acto ceased to e"ist as a uni%ed and independent

state. There is a relentless ci$il war etween the :hristian and 3uslim groups# who control most o the

:&*.

The current ci$il war in the :entral &rican *epulic egan with elek 3uslim group@s campaign in the

capital# Damako# in Fecemer o 2012. The 3uslims# with the support o coreligionists rom theneighoring *epulic o :had# sei'ed power in the country and immediately started a terror campaign

against :hristians. )n turn# they created an armed resistance# &nti,Dalaka (anti,machete+# and egan to

massacre the 3uslim population. The religious conict etween these groups which elong to oth o

the world@s largest religions continues# despite the pre$iously signed armistice agreement. The war is

accompanied y acts o cannialism and ci$ilians massacres on oth sides.

The elections were repeatedly postponed since <eruary 2015# ecause the interim go$ernment#

estalished under the 9 mediation with the participation o <rance and the &# could not pro$ide the

minimal saety and logistics to carry them out# or e"ample# the printing o allots and their deli$ery to

polling stations.

There are troops o the &rican nion and <rance in the country which# ne$ertheless# cannot stop the

$iolence in the country.

The :entral &rican *epulic is important to the world powers as a source o minerals/ uranium#

diamonds# gold and oil. Traditionally# the country was under total control o its ormer colonial country#

<rance. Cne o the reasons why <rance didn!t oppose the coup in 2012 was the plans o pre$ious

go$ernment to allow the :&*@s oil and uranium deposits to e de$eloped y :hina and outh &rica. The

nited tates tries to participate in the conict resolution ecause it is interested in oil de$elopment. The

as well as <rance seeks to contain :hina@s e"pansion into :entral &rica. :hina can!t strengthen its

position in the :&* with the ongoing massacre.

Fespite the elections# the situation in the country is not peaceul# any diferent system o go$ernment

actually does not work. There are no efecti$e control mechanisms. The power o the central go$ernment

does not e"tend eyond a ew Damako locks. )n many parts o the capital# the real power is in the hands

o militia leaders.

*outh AfricaThe 2015 year rought instaility in outh &rica. The country aced two challenges/ the growing numer

o migrants rom other &rican countries# which caused riots# and the %rst attempts at organi'ing a color

re$olution against the 8resident Laco Puma. outh &rica is a D*): memer that challenges the

hegemony and its allies y ofering a multi,polar alternati$e. )n addition# outh &rica is the most

important conduit o :hinese inuence in &rica. 9ot surprisingly# the did not aandon their attempts

to change the country@s leadership to a more pro,&merican one.



)n <eruary 2015# riots roke out in the country# unsatis%ed with the inu" o immigrants into the

country. Detween 2006 and 2012# outh &rica was the %rst in the world in numers o applications or

asylum. )n &pril the riots repeated. Then Eoodluck Pwelithini# the king o the Pulu trie# called or a

cleansing o the country rom oreigners.

)n Cctoer 2015# students protests started in the country. The ormal reason or these was the increase

o tuition ees. Aowe$er# the protesters themsel$es declared their dissatisaction with the Puma regime

and the act that there is still ine4uality etween lacks and whites# as well as etween the majority lack

population and the new lack elite# related to the ruling &rican 9ational :ongress. These are the largest

protests in outh &rica since the end o apartheid.

&t the same time# last year# the opposition put orward new claims to the current president# accusing him

o spending more than R20 million rom the state udget to repair his own $illa. nder the slogan o

%ghting against corruption# on eptemer 0th# 2015# large,scale protests were organi'ed in all cities o

the country. outh &rica@s leading trade union# the 9ational nion o 3etalworkers# took an acti$e part in

the demonstrations# pre$iously calling to changes to the country@s go$ernment. The Femocracy -orks

8roject# unded y the &merican 9F <oundation# was in$ol$ed in it. &n intelligence program# this and

other protest mo$ements in outh &rica was the work o the let,lieral -C8 )nstitute (the ociety#

-ork and Fe$elopment )nstitute# originally the ociology o -ork 8roject+ at the ni$ersity o the

-itwatersrand in Lohannesurg# working closely with Eene harp!s &merican )nstitute o &lert instein#

the main de$eloper o color re$olution technologies.

Desides promoting the anti,corruption and anti,go$ernmental slogans# the protesters pushed or the

aandonment o the nuclear power plants construction# a large,scale project# the implementation o

which can estalish outh &rica@s energy independence.

$orecast for 20#)n 2016# su,aharan geopolitics will e determined y the ollowing trends comined/ the %ght etween

the and :hina or inuence on the continent# <rance@s push to maintain its sphere o inuence in -est

&rica# the e"pansion o )slamist groups and terrorist acti$ities in the ahel# rom the Aorn o &rica to

9igeria# opening a new ront or )ranian,audi conrontation in 9igeria# reanimation o longstanding

ethnic and religious conicts# &merican and Dritish attempts to carry out a :olor *e$olution in outh

&rica.

7ight for *udan and Eritrea between )hina and .ahhabi 2ulfmonarchies:hina will continue to strengthen its position in the region. :hina remains the main ally o outh &rica.

The implementation o pre$iously signed contracts and the pro$isions o the 201Q Lohannesurg 8lan o

)mplementation will ace a numer o diHculties primarily ecause o the opposition# the old centers

o inuence in the ormer imperial countries (<rance and the K+# as well as audi &raia competition in

the 3uslim countries.

:hina and the Eul countries will start the %ght or udan and ritrea. These countries leaders cannot

alance etween two poles under the increasing conrontation etween the nited tates and the Eul#

on the one hand# and *ussia# )ran and :hina# on the other. The audis and their allies will do e$erything

possile to push :hina out rom the region neighoring the &raian 8eninsula. udan will continue to

participate in the audi inter$ention in Oemen.

audi &raia cannot cope with this task alone due to the continued drop in oil prices# and the diHculties

with the country@s udget. Cn the other hand# atar can take ad$antage o this struggle# %rst in alliance

with audi &raia and the nited &ra mirates# and then on its own# to weaken :hina@s position.

Cn the one hand# the atari economy does not depend on oil and gas prices which can uctuate.

Thereore# atar won!t ha$e the udget diHculties that its allies and ri$als o the Eul :ooperation

:ouncil will ace ine$italy ne"t year. Cn the other hand# other Eul countries as well as atar are



interested in control o$er udan and the &raic,speaking *ed ea coast# especially the Da el,3ande

trait. This in$ol$es acti$e operations in ritrea# as well as anti,:hina pro$ocations in Fjiouti.

)on8ict between Ethiopia and Eritrea: and in 5(ibouti )t is likely that# in order to undermine :hinese inuence in ritrea and pre$ent the :hinese project

completion in thiopia in the uture# the -ahhai monarchy may start another thiopian,ritrean

conict# where omali )slamists could participate too. The conict etween the predominantly :hristian

thiopia and 3uslim ritrea will take place in the eastern part o thiopia# where related omali 3uslim

tries li$e.

3oreo$er# the conict in Fjiouti is e"pected to continue# and the # organi'ing riots against the

authoritarian leadership# as well as atar# supporting )slamist control o$er the Fjiouti and ritrea

order# will oppose :hina. )t should e rememered that atar under a 9 mandate monitors the

orders o oth countries.

Relati%e con8ict normali&ation in *udanudan will try to impro$e relations with audi &raia to restore ties with the -est# using the reel

mo$ements in Farur# the Dlue 9ile region# outh Kordoan# to weaken the country. &ter the separation

o outh udan in 2011# the new state has all the udanese oil %elds# and energy transportation ways

remain in 9orth udan oth countries are in conict o$er the transit# which is also successully used y

the &tlanticists.

)n &pril 2016# the si",month armistice etween the go$ernment o udan and separatists o the udan

8eople@s Gieration 3o$ement came to an end. )t is e"pected that the negotiations will continue#

although there might e outreaks o $iolence on oth sides.

*omaliaomalia will not e ale to o$ercome the ongoing ci$il war. The Transitional <ederal 8arliament mandate

e"pires in 2016. Aowe$er# the elections cannot e carried out in the country. ither way# the results will

not ha$e any inuence on the uture o the country

)n 2016# the omali al,haaa group will not e deeated. The e"tremists who declared their allegiance

to the )slamic tate organi'ation# retain their inuence and try to mo$e the terrorist acti$ity into thiopia

and Kenya.

*ahel 5estabili&ationThe )slamic e"tremists and Eul countries supporting them will continue to %ght or the creation o

continuous line o the radical )slamists control in orm ahel to ritrea in the east# rom 3auritania in the

west. ritrea and 9orth udan are almost entirely controlled y the Eul monarchies. )n :had# 9iger and

3ali# the )slamist militants are acti$e# especially &l,aeda in the )slamic 3aghre# as well as groups loyal

to the )slamic state. sually# most o the population in these countries is 3uslim. nlike countries in

9orth &rica# e"cept Giya# the ahel state structures are $ery weak. The ethnic composition in the

countries is $ery comple"# most o them ha$e a disad$antaged ethnic group ready to perorm under the

ag o e"tremists. The largest o them are the Tuaregs# warriors who li$e in ahel# ut are second,class

citi'ens in all countries# e"cept 3auritania. The continuing deserti%cation in the region# creates serious

socio,economic diHculties and %ghting etween ethnic and trial groups o$er land. *adical )slamists can

use all these actors to intensiy their acti$ities in the region in 2016.

The ongoing destaili'ation in Giya ser$es a catalyst or )slamists in the region. -e should e"pect

)slamist attacks in 3ali and :had. )n 3ali# the separatist mo$es are possile in the northern part o the

country# populated y the Tuaregs.

Nigeria .ar on Three 7ronts)n 9igeria# the 8resident Dukhari said to hold anti,corruption purges. nder the guise o %ghting

corruption# the elites o the state remo$ed most o the southern :hristian groups. The population will

eel noticeale changes in )slamici'ed 9igeria and the growing inuence o audi &raia. These measures

will not undermine the Doko Aaram group in northern states# ut will strengthen separatist tends in the



southern :hristian states# which produces the main source o 9igerian elite@s wealth# the oil. )n the

southern part o the country it is e"pected that the separatist mo$ements will ha$e a resurgence/ the

3o$ement or the &ctuali'ation o the o$ereign tate o Diara# and the 3o$ement or the mancipation

o the 9iger Felta.

The Fecemer massacre o the 9igerian hiites will not remain unpunished or the 9igerian leadership.

The hiites will support )ran# and )ran itsel will join the gloal oil market and thus it will hit the 9igeria

economy. &s a result# ecause o the all o ta" re$enue# the 9igerian leadership will ace opposition rom

other elites now out o power ( in a %ght against corruption+# armed resistance o the Doko Aaram# the

9igerian hiites in the north# and :hristian separatism in the south.

The largest oil,producing and oil,dependent country in &rica will ha$e to ocus on internal prolems o

the country# losing to its main competitor on the continent# outh &rica# within the ramework o the

&rican nion.

The )oup d;Etat and the 5R) )on8ict )n 2016# the Femocratic *epulic o the :ongo is e"pected to hold presidential elections. The current

8resident Loseph Kaila has een at the head o the country since 2001# and according the current

constitution# he cannot run or a new term. To do this# the :onstitution should e amended. Kaila will

likely take this step# which will cause the opposition to negati$ely react# and may result in a coup attempt

and a reellion in eastern :ongo.

Kaila came to power ater the assassination o his ather# the ormer president and inuential

commander rom the econd :ongo -ar. Ais rise to power has not yet rought the ri$al actions into any

type o agreement or consensus around the issues# and has not yet resol$ed the conict in the eastern

part o the country. Cpponents and competitors can come out ahead rom the prolems surrounding

any unconstitutional third term# and mo$e Kaila aside y way o orce.

)on8ict in 9urundi The escalation o the conict in eastern F*: will e afected y the destaili'ation o the situation in

Durundi# which will continue in 2016. )n oth cases# i the &rican nion occupied the country# and i the

organi'ation which# according to &rticle Q o its :harter# can introduce troops into &rican countries

without the permission o the so$ereign leadership in emergency# the armed conict in Durundi is

ine$itale. )n the %rst case# the regime is ready to resist the & military in$asion# in the second one# a ci$ilwar will start etween the orces o 8resident 8ierre 9kurun'i'a and opposition groups.

The most preerred outcome or the &rican nion would e a military deployment until the conict in

Durundi leads to an escalation o tension in the whole Ereat Gakes region# and results in an appearance

o 9 peacekeepers.

)on8ict in )entral African RepublicThe conict in the :entral &rican *epulic will not stop# despite the election o the president and

parliament. Their results will cause dissatisaction among the losers who will continue their armed

resistance.

& likely conse4uence will e more acti$ity rom the <rench and other oreign actors# with warlords and

action leaders who ha$e command o groups in the %eld. The lack o a uni%ed state will place power into

the hands o oreign monopolies# which in these conditions will reduce the costs associated with doingusiness# and through the use o riery and pri$ate military companies# they will augment their own

aility# especially in the case o <rance# to dictate their terms.

A change of successorsTwo &rican countries are likely to ace destaili'ation and serious threats o coups# as a result o the

possile death o permanent authoritarian leaders. Duilt a dictatorial system o go$ernment does not

imply a direct inheritance# and e$en i there is a successor# the struggle or power ater the death o the

head o state is 4uite possile.



)n 4uatorial Euinea# this year may e the last or Teodoro Ciang 9guema 3asogo# the &rican leader

who has een in power or a long time. Ae stands at the head o the country since 1=I=# coming into

power ater a coup# killing the pre$ious dictator# his own uncle. Teodoro Ciang 9guema 3asogo has

cancer in the terminal stage. &ter his death# the struggle or power among his sons and relati$es is likely

to start.

& colleague o Teodoro Ciang 9guema 3asogo# the Pimawean 8resident *oert 3ugae is the

oldest leader on the &rican continent. Ae is =1 years old# and he has no oHcial successor. )n 2015#

Pimawe aced riots. 3ost likely# ater the death o 3ugae# the country will e orced to redistriute

power# with neighoring nations interering# especially outh &rica.

)olor Re%olution Attempt in *outh Africa)n the most de$eloped u,aharan &rican country# the pro,-estern powers will attempt to o$erthrow

the current president# Laco Puma. Puma ollows an independent policy rom the -est# trying to turn

outh &rica into one o the centers o the de$eloping multi,polar world order. outh &rica pays

cooperates $ery hea$ily with other D*): memer,states# especially with :hina and *ussia. )n the case o

color re$olutions# attempts against other leaders o D*): countries# such as the e$ents o 2011 in *ussia

and o 201J in Dra'il# the pro,-estern opposition uses accusations o authoritarianism and corruption. )n

particular there are some similarities with the protests in Dra'il# as oth Dra'il and outh &rica aced

mainly protests o the trade unions and the students.

The protests will continue in 2016# e$en stronger. There are chances# that intentional pro$ocations

against Puma will e used/ dispersal o demonstrations# strikes# workers protests. $en racial tensions#

and nati$e outh &ricans citi'en discontent with migrants rom other &rican countries will e used.

The most likely method to remo$e Puma rom power is a coup rom within the ruling party# the &rican

9ational :ongress# with mass protests in the country. imilarly# in 200Q# Puma!s predecessor# 8resident

Thao 3eki resigned ater the &9: reused to support him.

The most likely candidate or the si"th presidency o outh &rica# is the pro,-estern $ice president o

outh &rica and &9: $ice,chairman Kgalema 3otlanthe. Furing the demonstrations against Laco Puma

in 2015# he $isited the # where among other meetings# he went to the Dush,connected -orld &fairs

:ouncil in Aouston# leading multinational corporations in urope# the and the 3iddle ast# to discuss

the gloalist plans or outh &rica.

South-Eastern Asia and Pacic

"he bi choice/ US or China)n 2015# &ustralia and Cceania# as well as outh,ast &sia# were still inuenced y the processes speci%c

to the &sia,8aci%c region. Two major orces# and :hina# are %ghting or inuence in this part o the

world. &ter the %nali'ation o orming o a multipolar world# Deijing and -ashington will e the main

centers o attraction or the region.

"rans-Pacic PartnershipCne o the most important e$ents or the region in 2015 was the agreement on the estalishment o a

new economic association , the Trans,8aci%c 8artnership (T88+. )n act , it is nothing ut a continuation o

the e"pansionary economic policy o -ashington# seeking y all means to stop the points o economic

growth that ha$e the potential o going out o the control o the hegemon. This transnational elite does

not take into account the position o producers who can not compete with the ast,growing &sia,

8aci%c countries that ha$e tremendous human resources and growing technical potential. T88 supposes

gradual reduction or elimination o duties and other arriers to the mo$ement o goods# ser$ices and

capital. The agreement in$ol$es &ustralia# Drunei# Bietnam# :anada# 3alaysia# 3e"ico# 9ew Pealand# 8eru#

the nited tates# ingapore# :hile and Lapan. )nterest to join the T88 has een shown y )ndonesia and



outh Korea. )n this case the signing o a ormal agreement will e a urther step towards the erosion o

orders and gloali'ation# which is one o the main goals o the lieral elite.

Elections in Sinapore/ the success of the Conser)ati)es)n 2015# ingapore held important elections. The state that or decades has een showing e"cellent

dynamics o economic growth# has shown itsel as a stale society/ the party 78eople@s action7# created y

Gee Kuan Oew# who has spearheaded the creation o a modern state# won Q o the Q= seats in

parliament. &t the moment# the 8rime 3inister o ingapore# Gee Asien Goong# is the eldest son o Gee

Kuan Ou. The leading opposition party that adheres to the lieral ideology has recei$ed the remaining 6

seats. )n other words# the ingapore people demonstrated unanimity in commitment to traditional $alues

laid down y the ounders o the modern state.

Elections in (,anmar/ the )ictor, of the liberalslections in 3yanmar# y contrast# showed the opposite trend to ingapore/ the parliamentary elections

were won y the 79ational Geague or Femocracy.7 -hile this does not mean immediate remo$al rom

power o the military leadership# trend or gradual change o regime in the country is o$ious.

3yanmar is ordering oth with )ndia and :hina and has its own e"it to the )ndian Ccean# essential or

many players# primarily the nited tates. The deeat o the conser$ati$e 7nion or olidarity and

Fe$elopment7 in the elections may indicate the acti$ation o the pro,&merican orces and specialser$ices in this area.

Cn the other hand# the leader o the 79ational Geague or Femocracy#7 &ung an uu Kyi# shortly eore

the election# $isited :hina and met with the political leadership o the country. Ei$en the diHcult ino,

3yanmar relations in recent years# many analysts do not rule out that Deijing also supported the

opposition party in opposition to 3yanmar@s ruling military junta.

&t the regional competition etween )ndia and :hina# 3yanmar has chosen Felhi as a priority ocus. )n

201# )ndia had pro$ided a loan to 3yanmar or 500 million dollars. )n 2016 the construction o the

transport corridor will e completed# which will connect )ndia and Thailand through 3yanmar.

To a large e"tent the de$elopment o e$ents in the countries in the region as a whole depends on :hina.

The )ndo,:hinese conict can e used y e"tra,regional orces to weaken the multipolar alternati$e to a

unipolar &merican hegemony. The political turn o 3yanmar could trigger an escalation o instaility inthe region# where the main ene%ciary o this will e transnational lieral elites who are interested in the

destaili'ation o the poles o a multipolar world (in this case , )ndia and :hina+.

"he militari+ation of the reionBietnam has recei$ed si" *ussian sumarines o 7Kilo7,class. )n addition# Aanoi# in 2015# made a numer

o statements aout the intention to de$elop their military# particularly na$al cooperation with

-ashington. &nother regional player# )ndonesia# also said that in the near uture it plans to ac4uire some

*ussian,made sumarines in order to strengthen its military presence. The leadership o Thailand also

$oiced similar intentions. )n addition# major regional players such as &ustralia and Lapan also ha$e

increased their military udgets.

To a large e"tent this is due to the unresol$ed conict concerning the ownership o the pratly )slands in

the outh :hina ea. The erection o :hinese military inrastructure is pushing the region toward a closerunion with the nited tates.

1apan/ militari+ation and nationalismGast year Tokyo continued the line o military cooperation with the nited tates. )n 2015# a new

agreement on military alliance etween Lapan and the nited tates was signed (in act the %rst major

change in the treaty o 1=60# signed y 9ousuke Kishi , grandather o the current Lapanese 8rime

3inister hin'o &e+# or which Lapan had the right to deend regional allies# who were attacked. Through

such a ormulation the Lapanese deense system will e ale to intercept missiles %red at the nited

tates. C$iously# a potential opponent in this scenario is 9orth Korea# and possily :hina. )mportantly#



the Lapanese parliament appro$ed an agreement that in act means a re$ision o the military doctrine o

the state. )n the summer o 2015# appropriate amendments to the legislation o the country were

appro$ed y 8arliament. Deore# Tokyo could only deend itsel# responding to aggression rom outside.

9ow# military orces can e used to protect their 7allies7. )n addition# the Lapanese go$ernment decided to

intensiy the participation in peacekeeping operations around the world. &lso in 2015# a record high

deense udget (J2.1 illion. dollars+ was appro$ed. The southern orders ha$e also een strengthened

as Tokyo has territorial disputes with Deijing in this region. &lso# construction o the sumarine type7oryu7 , one o the largest in the world M continued.

3any circles o the population ha$e negati$ely recei$ed the militari'ation o the country. &ccording to

opinion polls the majority o the inhaitants o the islands o Lapan are opposed to this decision. Cne o

the dri$ing orces ehind the protest was the student structure &GF (tudents mergency &ction or

Gieral Femocracy+. )t is signi%cant that a numer o eatures ormed during the demonstrations o the

protest mo$ement , support or young people# ultra,lieral rhetoric# accusations o &e@s nationalism#

shiting attention to the dangers o the Lapanese armed orces in the interests o the nited tates on

lurred 7paci%sm7. The widespread use o clich]s and methods speci%c or o color re$olutions in other

regions o the world indicates that the &tlanticists are trying to control the situation in the country#

including with the help o protest mo$ements.

&tlantisists ha$e lackmailed &e# who at some point may ecome too independent# with threats o a

color re$olution.

%adical Islam in Indonesia and the Philippines)ndonesia and the 8hilippines ha$e continued to struggle against groups o )slamic e"tremists hiding in

the jungle o the islands. C particular importance is the growing inuence o )slamic radicalism in

)ndonesia# the largest )slamic country in the world. -e should recall that in 201J# )ndonesia was the only

country in the world outside the sel,proclaimed :aliphate# which had open demonstrations in support o

)). )ndonesian militants ha$e made a numer o statements in the past year. The acti$ities o the

)ndonesian security ser$ices show that they are araid o serious terrorist attacks under the anner o the

)) in the coming year.

(iration crisis)n 2015# countries o the region aced a migration crisis related to the relocation o tens o thousands o

ethnic *ohingya people rom 3yanmar and Dangladesh. These 3uslims are second,class citi'ens inDuddhist 3yanmar# and try to mo$e to other countries# especially to Thailand# 3alaysia# )ndonesia# the

8hilippines. )t is e"pected that in the %rst ew months o 2015 illegal carriers transported more than 25

thousand *ohingya. The e"act numer o migrants that ha$e mo$ed in 2015 is unknown. C$er 2#000

*ohingya arri$ed in Dangladesh local authorities ha$e decided to settle them on a remote island. e$eral

hundred drowned in the 3olluca trait and &ndaman ea.

The arri$al o oreigners has caused a mass protest rom local people and helps to destaili'e the

situation in the countries o outheast &sia. &s in urope# the nited tates insists on taking reugee y

the countries o the region# ut most states reuse to do so.

&ustralia in 2015 continued the policy o 7stop the oats? with migrants# mostly rom countries o

Cceania and outheast &sia. They were caught near the &ustralian coast and sent to special camps in

neighoring countries# primarily in 8apua 9ew Euinea.

Australia&ustralia is a key state in the southern part o the &sia,8aci%c region. &s part o the &nglo,a"on world#

this state is certainly an ally o the nited tates and holds a pro,&merican policy on all major issues# in

2015 this trend continued. )t signed a major trade agreement with Lapan# which reduces import duties on

high,tech products. Tokyo# or its part# did the same or the &ustralian agricultural products. )n addition#

:anerra marked eforts to intensiy trade relations with :hina# ut the pressure rom -ashington and

the ias o most media outlets did not allow the de$elopment o this trend. )n the summer o 2015# the

leadership o &ustralia announced plans to de$elop and strengthen their 9a$y and &ir <orce. )n



particular# it was announced that the program o construction o new warships would e started soon.

The military udget o the country increased to 2 illion dollars. 3any memers o the army leadership

o &ustralia# with the help o the media# ha$e made a numer o statements that highlight the opinion

that the &ustralian army needs a numerical increase in personnel and the moderni'ation o weapons.

)n 2015# a trend o weakening ties etween &ustralia and its neighor 9ew Pealand# on the one hand# and

Dritain on the other appeared. Cn eptemer 15# 2015 3alcolm Turnull ecame the new &ustralian

8rime 3inister. Ae replaced Tony &ott on the post o Gieral 8arty leader. &ot was known or his

radical anti,*ussian stance. The current leadership o &ustralia is more restrained in statements# while

generally holding the same policy.

nlike &ott# a supporter o constitutional monarchy (the ormal head o state is still the ueen o

ngland+# Turnull in the past was known as a supporter o the transormation o &ustralia into a

repulic# although this does not mean an immediate implementation o its plans.

)n 2015 9ew Pealand egan the process o changing the ag o the country. )n a reerendum in

9o$emer,Fecemer 2015# an alternati$e to a ag where the upper let part displays the ag o Ereat

Dritain was chosen. )t is e"pected that in 2016 the inhaitants o the country will ha$e to choose etween

the Dritish colonial ag with symols and signs# and a ag without indication o the country@s

memership o the ormer Dritish mpire.

7orecast for !"#'"he dichotom, of China-USThis year the region elt e$en more the afection y the growing contradictions etween -ashington and

Deijing. Fespite the act that the :hinese leadership# in light o the weakening economy# is unlikely to take

drastic steps in the current year# it will continue to strengthen its positions in outheast &sia and in

&ustralia and Cceania. This process will meet resistance rom -ashington# who considers the region one

o the keys to keeping the status o the hegemon. tates in$ol$ed in this multi,le$el conrontation

etween the two superpowers will %nd it more diHcult to maneu$er and maintain the appearance o

neutrality. The ormation o a multipolar world will continue to grow and# thereore# countries in the

region will need to choose which pole o power they consider a priority.

"he militari+ation of the reion

The growth o military udgets o key regional players# continued conrontation etween Deijing and-ashington# as well as the strengthening o militarist sentiment in Lapan# promotes military spending in

2016. 3any regional conicts will also contriute to strengthening the militarist sentiment in the

countries o the region. )t is important to note that the $ast majority o states do not ha$e the necessary

production ase or the creation o modern types o weapons. o in 2016 the region will see increased

competition etween leading weapons producers# primarily the and *ussia or the right to arm one

country or another.

Asian Infrastructure In)estment &an' )n Lanuary 2016# the %rst meeting o the Doard o Eo$ernors o the &sian )nrastructure )n$estments Dank

will take place. )t is designed to e an alternati$e to the )nternational 3onetary <und. :hina# *ussia and

)ndia are the three largest shareholders o the new %nancial institution. )n act# this e$ent will signal real

steps to the deconstruction o the %nancial hegemony o the -est. The $ast majority o regional players

also participated in the creation o &))D# and thereore the %nancial realities o these countries will changein the %rst place. This will mean a new round o ormation o a multipolar world.

Strenthenin of radical IslamismThe trend or the strengthening o radical )slamist organi'ations will continue. <irst o all we are talking

aout the ranches o )). -e should e"pect terrorist attacks in the 8hilippines# )ndonesia# 3alaysia#

Thailand# and &ustralia.

(iration crisis



The migration crisis will continue. The prolem with *ohingya is not sol$ed# and will add to the new wa$e

o immigrants. This will cause a nationalist acklash primarily in non,3uslim countries# such as Thailand#

where 3uslim immigrants# mainly ighurs# are already threatening the country@s security. )n particular#

ighurs conducted terrorist attacks in Dangkok on &ugust 1Q# 2015.

"he %epublican trend in Australia and ew 3ealand&ustralia and 9ew Pealand will continue the policy o distancing rom the nited Kingdom. 9ew Pealand

in 2016 %nally will remo$e the nion Lack national ag. &ustralia will reduce the acti$ity within the Dritish

:ommonwealth o 9ations# ocusing instead on maneu$ering etween the and :hina. )t is likely that

or the %rst time in a long time the 4uestion on the orm o go$ernment in &ustralia will e raised once

again.

USA

5egradation of hegemony )n 2015# the nited tates demonstrated an increasing inaility to ofer a gloal scenario o a world

order. )n contrast to the mid 20th century# the current political elites are unale to ofer any project#

either within the state or in the international arena. 3any signs point to the dismay o -ashington and asigni%cant narrowing o the hori'on o their plans. Cnly immediate prolems are sol$ed. &ll their eforts

are thrown out to sa$e their weakening hegemony y e"porting chaos. The still has suHcient military#

economic and political power to destroy any alternati$e projects. Aowe$er# the crisis o the lieral model

and the ideological deadlock o the -est led y -ashington# clearly shows the inaility to ofer a new

gloal project.

5elaying the 6nal crisisThe decay o hegemony is not an e$ent# it can e called a process or tendency. )n 2015# this process

accelerated. This is e$idenced y the increasing chaoti'ation o the world system. :onicts that egan in

pre$ious years ha$e not een resol$ed# while new ones appeared and solutions are also unlikely to e

ound in the current coordinate system. & clear e"ample in this case is the growing instaility in the

3iddle ast# which egan with the e$ents o the 7&ra pring7 and de$eloped into a ull,scale war in the

region# drawing in more states to it. )t is important to understand that most conicts in the region ha$eeen created or pro$oked y the nited tates and their satellites in order to destaili'e the situation.

New sources of instability Gast year# the geography o instaility e"panded to urope. countries# which are totally controlled y

-ashington elites# ound themsel$es in a situation where they were orced to accept millions o reugees

rom the 3iddle ast. Cten under the guise o normal or peaceul people# terrorists who are ready at

any time to egin a campaign o $iolence against the local people penetrated into the . &s an e"ample/

the e$ents o 9o$emer 1th in <rance. The discontent o the local population with the inu" o migrants

on the one hand# and the aggressi$e eha$ior o the reugees on the other hand (whose moti$ations had

$aried aspects+# e$entually led to a signi%cant polari'ation o society and the growth o instaility in the

region. )t is important to stress that the reason or this is primarily a conscious policy o -ashington#

aimed at urther chaoti'ation o the gloal system or the purpose o preser$ing its hegemony

inde%nitely.

Relations with the European <nion-ashington@s relations with the uropean nion in 2015 did not change their trajectory# ut some

aspects ha$e ecome strongly marked. The migration crisis in urope# triggered y the elite who

tacitly appro$ed o it# signi%cantly complicates the already tense social and political situation in urope.

3ost o all this is reected in Eermany# the engine o present,day urope. )n general# relations on the

political and economic le$els are not $ery diferent rom pre$ious years/ any policy decision can only e

accepted y uropeans with consultation and pressure rom the side.



Trans-0aci6c 0artnership)n Cctoer 2015# the nited tates# Lapan and 10 other countries in the &sia,8aci%c region reached an

agreement on the estalishment o a new economic association , the Trans,8aci%c 8artnership (TT8+#

which is essentially a continuation o the e"pansionary economic policy o -ashington# seeking any

means to stop points o economic growth that ha$e the potential to get out o the control o the

hegemon. &t the same time this will signi%cantly afect manuacturers in the nited tates# which can not

compete with the ast,growing &sia,8aci%c countries that ha$e tremendous human resources andgrowing technical potential. 8art o the TT8 is supposed to gradually reduce or eliminate duties and other

arriers to the mo$ement o goods# ser$ices and capital. The agreement in$ol$es &ustralia# Drunei#

Bietnam# :anada# 3alaysia# 3e"ico# 9ew Pealand# 8eru# the nited tates# ingapore# :hile# and Lapan. &n

interest in joining the TT8 has een shown y )ndonesia and outh Korea. )t turns out that the signing o

a ormal agreement will e a urther step towards the erosion o orders and deeper gloali'ation# which

is one o the main goals o the lieral elite.

7ailed elites&gainst the ackground o the degradation o the political elites# who are supporters o the dying

hegemony# there can e seen a growing disillusionment o a$erage &mericans with the current domestic

and oreign policy as well as lieral $alues in general. Fomestic disillusionment with &merican society and

dissatisaction with the course o the gloalist elites are identi%ed in the works o researchers like 8atrick

Duchanan# ut in 2015 this process came to a 4ualitati$ely new le$el. The epitome o this phenomenonhas ecome the %gure o Fonald Trump , the presidential candidate who# to the surprise o many

e"perts# has shown e"cellent results during the race so ar.

Middle Americans against liberal elitesDeing a dollar illionaire# and thereore not depending on %nancial support or his election campaign#

and not elonging to powerul gloalist groups like the :<* and the neocons# Fonald Trump is a

spokesman or the so,called 73iddle &mericans7 , the &merican middle,class# typically rom the smaller

conser$ati$e towns and suurs in the heartland o the country# holding onto its traditional $alues. )n

act# Trump is an engine o the anti,hegemony. &gainst the ackground o the degradation o the

elites who led the country during the 20th and eginning o 21st centuries # the same middle class#

dissatis%ed with the domestic and oreign policies o -ashington and lieral elites# is rising. This orce is

the e"pression o the idea o multipolarity in the nited tates and will e leading the 9orth,&merican

pole o power when multipolarity is %nali'ed.

$orecast for 20#7ailures in domestic and foreign policy 8resident Cama# who is %nishing his second term# will not ha$e an afect on the process o

decomposition o hegemony. The discontent o the population in the country will e stimulated y

growing prolems in the social and economic spheres# while in the international arena the will

continue to lose its standing against the strengthening centers o the multipolar world# primarily the

D*): countries. 2016 Xan e a possile turning point in the conicts in Oemen and yria. )t would ha$e a

negati$e impact on the position o the nited tates as a hegemonic power. The strengthening o *ussia

as a military power as well as :hina and )ndia as economic leaders# will also afect the position o

-ashington. The %nal collapse o kraine is also possile# it could depri$e the o strong le$erage on

3oscow and the .

The new president The main political e$ent o 2016 will e the presidential elections. Fespite the growing popularity o

Fonald Trump and the crystalli'ation o a new political orce in the country# with high proaility the

Femocratic candidate Aillary :linton is going to win. The mechanisms to achie$e this goal can e $aried.

3ost likely# the political orces are going to consolidate all o their inormation resources (in the nited

tates the $ast majority o the media is in the hands o lierals and gloalists+# in order to discredit

Fonald Trump in the eyes o the pulic eore the election. &s a result# Aillary :linton will win in a 7no,

alternati$e7 election and ecome the %rst emale president o the nited tates. he will continue



representing the interests o the lieral transnational elite# hence the nited tates will continue to act in

the same manner in which they acted in 2015.

The continuity of the course)n oreign policy# The nited tates will continue to pursue urther chaoti'ation o the world system.

:onicts that emerged earlier will not e sol$ed# and will continue to e$ol$e. 9ew regions and states will

e drawn in the 'one o instaility. -ith high proaility# there will e $arious crises and conicts in

urope and :entral &sia. -ithin the # there will e a continuation o the process o erosion o society#

destruction o traditions and promotion o the lieral agenda. The aim o the actions o elites in oth

directions will e to maintain hegemony. Their opponents will e the poles o a multipolar world gloally

and 73iddle &mericans7 inside the country.

Middle class against global eliteThe actions o the political elites in the nited tates will lead to growing discontent among ordinary

&mericans# who are the core o the society and the holders o traditional $alues. Fespite the likely

deeat o Fonald Trump and his supporters in the presidential election in 2016# we can orecast the

strengthening and crystalli'ation o the middle class as a real political orce in the country. This process

will e triggered y regular attempts y the authorities to attack the rights and reedoms# such as the

right to ear arms (the 2nd &mendment+# reedom o speech and conscience. &nother important actor

will e the increased pressure on religious (mainly :hristian+ groups and traditional $alues such asmarriage and the amily. The reluctance o the o$erwhelming majority o 73iddle &mericans7 to e uilt

into the system proposed y the elites# will e$entually lead to the complete destruction o the $ertical

links in a society that is on $erge o a deep political crisis. The middle class o the will e the leading

orce in the 9orth &merican pole o the multipolar world.

Afterword

The main gloal trend or 2016 will e the weakening o hegemony against the strengthening o the

crisis in the entire world system. The changing o the old unipolar model to a multipolar one will not

happen in the immediate uture. This comple" process will e preceded y increased instaility in the

world# regional power struggles or 'ones o inuence# with new wars and conicts.The nited tates will ace its major challenges in the 3iddle ast# especially in yria# which will remain at

the center o gloal politics in 2016. )t is the 3iddle ast and the whole )slamic world that will e the

greatest conict 'one# where the o$erlapping o gloal and regional conicts# such as the struggle

etween the and its allies and the D*): loc and )ran# audi,)ranian and e$en unni,hiite conict#

will lead to a gloal )nter,)slamic ci$il war (%tna+# the ormation o new gloal political network sujects#

and the comining o trialism# premodern# national and transnational postmodern changes ())+.

Eloal )slamic terrorism will show itsel once again# ut this time# under the )) ag. &s a rule# its actions

will match the gloal goal o the nited tates to strengthen the chaos in the gloal system.

Trying to preser$e its own hegemony# the nited tates will continue to implement its strategy o

controlled chaos. The most likely candidates or destaili'ation are the 3iddle ast# the peripheral 'one

o urasian *imland (the Dalkans# kraine# 9orth :aucasus and Transcaucasia# :entral &sia# &ghanistan

and 8akistan+# Dra'il# )ndia and outh &rica. The last three countries are most likely to ace color

re$olution strategies with the armed acti$ity o paramilitary groups.

:hina# despite increased competition rom the # e"pects less diHculty than the other D*): countries.

This is largely due to the staility o the :hinese state system. The nited tates will try to use the )ndo,

:hinese conict to weaken oth powers.

econdly# ater the )slamic world# the region with the highest potential or conict is u,aharan &rica.

Dy keeping the potential o old and new wars and conicts high# the growth o )slamic e"tremism will lead

to increased migration to outh &rica and the uropean countries# which will urther impact the

strengthening o inter,ethnic conicts and the growth o anti,lieral opinions in urope.

The main prolem o &merican hegemony is a current lack o meaning. The nited tates cannot ofer



itsel or the world a new and positi$e image o the uture. This was pre$iously to the ! ad$antage# ut

now it is the weak point o its oreign policy. &ll o the ! oreign policy rhetoric is generally negati$e#

uilt on the negation o the e"isting regimes# trends and processes# ut in act# the &mericans ha$e not

ofered anything in e"change. &s the result# the $acuum o conict 'ones o meaning is %lled y parasitic

structures such as )).

The crisis o meaning o hegemony opens opportunities or other world ci$ili'ations. The struggle or

meaning will e a main component o uture geopolitics. &lternati$e proposals or gloal de$elopment# aswell as philosophical and ideological alternati$es to lieralism rom $arious ci$ili'ational centers will

largely determine world politics rather than the struggle or resources and territory.

global trends of 2015 and forecasts for 2016

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