global urban population at risk? volcanic eruption phenomena and hazards understanding volcanic...
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Global Urban Population at Risk?
100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 1000-2000 >20000
5
10
15
20
25
Population, in 1000's
Number of Cities
Total Population at Risk — 41 147 000(1990 Estimates)
Cities of >100,000 Population Near Potentially Active Volcanoes
Volcanic Eruption Phenomena and Hazards
“Understanding Volcanic Hazards”—Video produced by the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior
•Ash fall•Pyroclastic (ash) flows•Lava Flows•Lahars (volcanic mudflows)
•Earthquakes•Tsunamis•Volcanic Gases
Manila, Philippines
Population, metro area—10 million
Two caldera complexes, many smaller volcanoes
Last large-scale eruption—Taal, 5380 years ago
Last smaller eruption—Taal, 1977 AD
PhiVolcs
Manila, Philippines
Potential risks from: Ash fall Pyroclastic (ash) flows Gases Lava flows (low
probability)
Response and Planning Mapping of deposits from
past eruptions Geophysical monitoring Emergency response plans
(near Taal, but not Manila) Education (near Taal),
including the public and students
Auckland, New Zealand
•Population— ~1 million
•Located in a 360 km2 volcanic field; scoria cones and tuff rings
•49 volcanoes erupted during the last 140,000 years
•Last eruption about 1000 years ago
Kermode, 1992
Auckland, New Zealand
Potential risks from: Ash fall; ballistic ejecta Pyroclastic surges Gases Lava flows Potential hazards of pyroclastic
flows from distant calderas
Response and Planning Mapping of deposits from
past eruptions Geophysical monitoring Emergency response plans;
evacuation and infrastructure protection
Education including the public and students
Quito, Ecuador
Population—1.1 million Located below Guagua
Pichincha, a large composite cone (stratovolcano)
12 eruption periods since 1533 AD.
Erupting now (since October, 1999)M. Hall
El Comercio
Quito, Ecuador
Potential risks from: Ash fall; ballistic ejecta Pyroclastic flows Mudflows (lahars) Gases
Response and Planning Mapping of deposits from
past eruptions Geophysical monitoring Emergency response plans;
evacuation, cleanup Education including the
public and students Especially good reporting on
eruptions in the newspapers
Seattle/Tacoma, Washington, USA Population, metro Seattle and
Tacoma—3.4 million Mount Rainier, large
composite cone (strato-volcano) east of the cities
Over the last several thousand years, lahars (mudflows) have reached the lowlands every 500-1000 years
Minimal risk from Mt. Baker and Glacier Peak volcanoes (northeast of Seattle)
USGS, 1997
Seattle/Tacoma, Washington, USA
Potential risks from: Lahars (mudflows) along
valleys radiating from Mt. Rainier
Minimal risk from ash fall; fallout usually to the east
Response and Planning Mapping and dating of deposits
from past eruptions Geophysical monitoring,
especially seismic detection of collapse and flow monitors along valleys
Emergency response plans for communities along valleys; warning systems
Education—students and public
Napoli, Italy
Orsi et al., 1998
US Army, 1944
Napoli, Italy Population, metro area—
~3 million Vesuvius; frequent
historic eruptions; last eruption 1944 AD
Phlegrean Fields; two calderas (last large eruption 12,000 years ago); multiple smaller scoria cones and tuff rings (last eruption-1538 AD); restless calderas
Il Mattino, 1906
Napoli, Italy
Potential risks from: Earthquakes, uplift and
subsidence Ash fall and pumice fall Pyroclastic surges and
flows Lava Flows Gases Panic
Response and Planning Mapping and dating of deposits
from past eruptions; tectonic framework
Geophysical monitoring— Seismic, GPS, Gases, Tilt, Temperature variation, etc.
Emergency response plans with Civil Defense, City, Province
Education—students and public; museums; publications; public lectures and TV presentations
Potential Problems Common to All Volcano Cities
1. Controllingpanic
6. Effects onsurfacetransportation
11. Stability ofbuildings,especially roofs
2. Identifiedevacuation routes
7. Effects on airtransport
12. Effects onsewage andsewage treatment
3. Handlingrefugees
8. Effects onelectricalinfrastructure
13. Need for crisisteams andcooperation by themedia
4. Public Health 9. Effects oncommunications
14. A well-educated publicwith regard tovolcanic hazards
5. Public Security 10. Effects onwater supply
15. Effectivecommunication ofthe state of thecrisis
Levels of Preparation and Understanding
1 2 3 4
• No analysisof volcanicrisk
• Minimal geo-physical andgeological dataand maps
• Qualitative,"best guess"idea of volcanicrisk
• Integratedgeophysicalmonitoring
• GIS- andphysicalprocess-basedhazard maps
• Collaborationwith civildefense, cityplanners, infra-structureauthorities
• Publiceducation
• Quantitativerisk analysis
• Integrateddata sets for"real-time"scenariosimulations(training,planning, andmitigation) andvulnerabilityestimates
1 2 3 4
Estimated "Levels of Preparation" in 59 "Volcano Cities"Having Populations of >100 000
5 cities
1 city
33 cities
8 cities
9 cities
3 cities
NONE
Levels of Preparation and Understanding
1 2 3 4
• No analysisof volcanicrisk
• Minimal geo-physical andgeological dataand maps
• Qualitative,"best guess"idea of volcanicrisk
• Integratedgeophysicalmonitoring
• GIS- andphysicalprocess-basedhazard maps
• Collaborationwith civildefense, cityplanners, infra-structureauthorities
• Publiceducation
• Quantitativerisk analysis
• Integrateddata sets for"real-time"scenariosimulations(training,planning, andmitigation) andvulnerabilityestimates
The Goal for all “Volcano Cities” during the 21st Century
IDNDR—IAVCEI Decade VolcanoProjects-"Reducing Volcanic Disasters”
Leader—Chris Newhall Decade Volcanoes Near Cities: Colima, Mexico (Colima) Merapi, Indonesia (Yogyakarta) Mount Rainier, USA (Seattle-Tacoma) Santa Maria, Guatemala (Quezaltenango) Taal, Philippines (Manila, Batangas) Sakurajima, Japan (Kagoshima City) Vesuvius, Italy (Napoli) Galeras, Colombia (Pasto) Teide, Spain (Santa Cruz de Tenerife) Avachinsky-Koriaksky, Russia (Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky
Disciplines Represented at “Cities on Volcanoes” Workshops
Volcanology Geographic Information
Systems Public Health Remote Sensing Risk Analysis Civil Engineering Hydrology Sociology & Psychology
Civil Defense City Management City Planning Education The Media (Science
Reporters) City Officials Insurance Industry Infrastructure management
“Cities on Volcanoes-Roma/Napoli, Auckland, and Hilo
What should be done to reduce urban volcanic risk in the next century?
Follow the examples for integrated programs of observation, planning and education established in several of the world’s “volcano cities.” Use the potential for Geographic-Information System-based integrated analysis, with heavy use of visualization to present results.
Continue to raise the level of awareness of volcanic risk. Use all available modern educational tools, including the internet. Integrate disaster awareness into the culture (e.g., a “national disaster day”). Annual training of civil defense officials with “virtual reality” scenarios that require real-time responses.
What should be done to reduce urban volcanic risk in the next century? (continued)
Earth scientists working for the cities, with integrated teams, which include environmental scientists, engineers, planners, and social scientists to prepare science- and culture-based emergency response plans. Frequent workshops and meetings like “Cities on Volcanoes.”
Provide the scientific basis for cost-benefit analyses of the value of mitigation and disaster education to decision-makers. Get the politicians and business people involved.
Who pays for urban disaster mitigation in the “volcano cities?” Traditional support
The Nation The State National and international disaster relief organizations
and NGO’s (always comes after an eruption; very little goes toward mitigation)
The insurance industry (again, after the eruption)
Non-traditional support The insurance industry (great interest in mitigation and
threat reduction) The utilities (infrastructure)—mitigation, hardening
facilities
Volcanoes, integrated science, and cities in the 21st century—Suggestions for Professional Geoscience Associations “GeoRisk” program for the International Unions of Geodesy
and Geophysics and Geological Sciences 2000-2010—the proposed “Decade of Geosciences in the
Cities” with each nation picking a “decade city” for integrated scientific study
Urban geoscience curricula need to be encouraged at universities
Communicate the importance of geosciences to mayors, city planners and engineers
We (geoscientists) need to “come out of the woods” and into the cities