AGRICULTURE:AGRICULTURE:GLOBAL WARMING’SGLOBAL WARMING’S

VICTIMVICTIMCAUSE CAUSE

ANDAND

SOLUTIONSOLUTION

Agriculture: Agriculture: Global Warming VictimGlobal Warming Victim

Food and Agriculture

Association of The United

States

This depiction of linear trends in the Palmer Drought Severity Index from 1948 to 2002 shows drying (reds and pinks) across much of Canada, Europe, Asia, and Africa and moistening (green) across parts of the United States, Argentina, Scandinavia, and western Australia. (Illustration courtesy Aiguo Dai and the American Meteorological Society.)

““Global Warming Global Warming Contributes to Australia’s Contributes to Australia’s Worst Drought”Worst Drought”

During 2002, worst drought since records During 2002, worst drought since records began in 1910began in 1910

Temperatures highest since 1950Temperatures highest since 1950 Increased evaporationIncreased evaporation Loss of soil moisture and vegetation dryingLoss of soil moisture and vegetation drying

Concentrated at Murray-Darling Basin – Concentrated at Murray-Darling Basin – nation’ s agriculture heartlandnation’ s agriculture heartland

Karoly et. al. 2003Karoly et. al. 2003

Temperature

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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Temp Above Avg.

Precipitation

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1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Precipitation

ConsequencesConsequences Decreased production of wheat, barley, cotton, Decreased production of wheat, barley, cotton,

and canolaand canola Production of major winter crops was set to fall Production of major winter crops was set to fall

by 14.8 million tons by 14.8 million tons Gross value of farm production was forecasted Gross value of farm production was forecasted

to fall by 21%to fall by 21% Australian Bureau of Ag Resource EconomicsAustralian Bureau of Ag Resource Economics

Projected temperature increases in Australia Projected temperature increases in Australia between 1*C and 6*C and 45% decrease in between 1*C and 6*C and 45% decrease in stream flow in Murray-Darling Basin by 2070stream flow in Murray-Darling Basin by 2070

CSIROCSIRO

Europe 2005Europe 2005 France – swarms of locusts hatching because of France – swarms of locusts hatching because of

drought. One farmer stated, “ They eat everytihing that drought. One farmer stated, “ They eat everytihing that is green, leaving only stalks, and when they have is green, leaving only stalks, and when they have finished, they leave some kind of scent so that cattle do finished, they leave some kind of scent so that cattle do not want to graze what is left.”not want to graze what is left.”

Spain – worst drought since records began in 1947, Spain – worst drought since records began in 1947, wave of forest fires, farmers demanding emergency help wave of forest fires, farmers demanding emergency help as crops fail and parched pastures no longer sustain as crops fail and parched pastures no longer sustain livestocklivestock

Portugal – worst dry spell since the 1940’s, National Portugal – worst dry spell since the 1940’s, National Farmer’s Union estimated losses near 1 billion euros, Farmer’s Union estimated losses near 1 billion euros, fires destroyed 140,000 hectares of forest and killed 15 fires destroyed 140,000 hectares of forest and killed 15 people, farm income expected to fall 35%people, farm income expected to fall 35%

Italy – several people dead due to heat, swarms of Italy – several people dead due to heat, swarms of locusts destroying vineyardslocusts destroying vineyards

Heatwave of 2003 – 15,000 people diedHeatwave of 2003 – 15,000 people died

GLOBAL CROP PRODUCTION REVIEW, 2005Prepared by USDA’s Joint Agricultural Weather Facility

CanadaCanada

General increase in temps, drought, soil General increase in temps, drought, soil compactation, changes in disease and compactation, changes in disease and insect pressureinsect pressure

Cool season vegetables as indicators, they Cool season vegetables as indicators, they are more adversely effected by tempsare more adversely effected by temps Yields have decreased from 40’s to 80’s in Yields have decreased from 40’s to 80’s in

spite of modern cultivars and production spite of modern cultivars and production practicespractices

McKeown et. al. McKeown et. al.

Drought Reporter

http://droughtreporter.unl.edu/map.jsp?Cmd=filter&scn=nv&c_ag=on&c_fi=on&c_wa=on&c_so=on&c_en=on&c_ot=on&src=&daterange=year

United StatesUnited States No reliable precipitation projections More frequent floods and droughts New technologies to prepare for widespread drought and crop-New technologies to prepare for widespread drought and crop-

pounding stormspounding storms

UC Berkeley team estimates that a five degree temperature rise -projected to occur in the next 30-50 years at current rates of carbon dioxide accumulation in the atmosphere - could result in $15 billion to $30 billion in annual damage to American crops.

McBroom, 2001

““Our whole farming system really contributes to a lot of global Our whole farming system really contributes to a lot of global warming and it could be made to be much more sustainable” warming and it could be made to be much more sustainable” Francis Thicke, Fairfield FarmerFrancis Thicke, Fairfield Farmer

Lorentzen, 2006Lorentzen, 2006

Agriculture: Agriculture: Global Warming CauseGlobal Warming Cause

Agriculture’s Agriculture’s Contribution to Global Contribution to Global WarmingWarming

Agriculture is estimated to be responsible Agriculture is estimated to be responsible for 9% of total greenhouse gas emissionsfor 9% of total greenhouse gas emissions

Methane (CH4) EmissionsMethane (CH4) Emissions

Agriculture is the main contributor to Agriculture is the main contributor to CH4 emissions.CH4 emissions.

Agriculture is responsible for 43% of Agriculture is responsible for 43% of methane emissions followed by waste methane emissions followed by waste (34%) and energy (21%).(34%) and energy (21%).

Major Cause of Methane Major Cause of Methane Emissions in AgricultureEmissions in Agriculture

Livestock manure is mainly composed of organic Livestock manure is mainly composed of organic matter that, in the absence of oxygen, is decomposed matter that, in the absence of oxygen, is decomposed by bacteria and in this way produces methane.by bacteria and in this way produces methane.

Manure management accounts for about 71% of CH4 Manure management accounts for about 71% of CH4 emissions resulting from agricultural activity.emissions resulting from agricultural activity.

The amount of methane emitted by livestock is The amount of methane emitted by livestock is calculated by the number of animals multiplied by an calculated by the number of animals multiplied by an emission rate per animal. The emission rate mainly emission rate per animal. The emission rate mainly depends on the type of digestive system of the animal depends on the type of digestive system of the animal and its feed intake.and its feed intake.

Nitrous Oxide (N2O) EmissionsNitrous Oxide (N2O) Emissions

Agriculture is also the main source of Agriculture is also the main source of N2O emissions and is responsible for N2O emissions and is responsible for some 52% of total N2O emissions, some 52% of total N2O emissions, compared with 27% from industrial compared with 27% from industrial processes, 16% from energy use, and processes, 16% from energy use, and 4% from land use and forestry. 4% from land use and forestry.

Causes of Nitrous Oxide Causes of Nitrous Oxide Emissions in AgricultureEmissions in Agriculture

N2O emissions from agriculture are N2O emissions from agriculture are cause from three sources:cause from three sources:

1) direct emissions from agricultural soils and 1) direct emissions from agricultural soils and animal production systemsanimal production systems

2) indirect emissions which take place after 2) indirect emissions which take place after nitrogen is lost from the field or after leaching or nitrogen is lost from the field or after leaching or the runoff of nitratesthe runoff of nitrates

3) emissions resulting from agricultural burning.3) emissions resulting from agricultural burning.

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Carbon Dioxide (CO2) EmissionsEmissions

Agriculture contributes to CO2 emissions in the Agriculture contributes to CO2 emissions in the way of burning fields and the burning of fossil way of burning fields and the burning of fossil fuels in trucks and equipment.fuels in trucks and equipment.

Although agriculture is a contributor to CO2 Although agriculture is a contributor to CO2 emissions, it doesn’t have its own category for emissions, it doesn’t have its own category for carbon dioxide emissions. Agriculture’s CO2 carbon dioxide emissions. Agriculture’s CO2 emissions get grouped into the transportation emissions get grouped into the transportation category but is estimated to be about 1.6% of category but is estimated to be about 1.6% of total CO2 emissions. total CO2 emissions.

Main Agricultural Cause Main Agricultural Cause of Global Warmingof Global Warming

Nearly 1/5 of all global warming causing emissions come from Nearly 1/5 of all global warming causing emissions come from animal agriculture, more than the cumulative impact of all the animal agriculture, more than the cumulative impact of all the transportation in the world. transportation in the world.

This effect occurs because animal wastes and digestion produces This effect occurs because animal wastes and digestion produces methane and nitrous oxide gases, which have 23 and 246 times methane and nitrous oxide gases, which have 23 and 246 times the heat trapping of carbon dioxide.the heat trapping of carbon dioxide.

The livestock industry is also the leading cause of deforestation of The livestock industry is also the leading cause of deforestation of the rainforest. 70% of the former Amazon Rainforest is currently the rainforest. 70% of the former Amazon Rainforest is currently devoted to animal agriculture. Because trees and other plants devoted to animal agriculture. Because trees and other plants remove greenhouse gasses from the atmosphere, deforestation remove greenhouse gasses from the atmosphere, deforestation accelerates the pace of global warmingaccelerates the pace of global warming

Slash and Burn Slash and Burn AgricultureAgriculture

Slash and burn practices are the leading Slash and burn practices are the leading cause of deforestation, and one of the cause of deforestation, and one of the major agricultural contributors to CO2 major agricultural contributors to CO2 emissions. emissions.

Smallholder farmers slash and burn a small area of forest to run Smallholder farmers slash and burn a small area of forest to run their livestock and plant their crops, but in a few short years the their livestock and plant their crops, but in a few short years the land is no longer fertile and the farmers must move on and slash land is no longer fertile and the farmers must move on and slash and burn a new piece of the rainforest. and burn a new piece of the rainforest.

Agriculture: Agriculture: Global Warming MitigatorGlobal Warming Mitigator

Agriculture Agriculture Part of the SolutionPart of the Solution

Carbon SequestrationCarbon Sequestration Largest global terrestrial sequestration poolLargest global terrestrial sequestration pool Forest SequestrationForest Sequestration

Biofuel/EthanolBiofuel/Ethanol BiomassBiomass

Build with woodBuild with wood Fuel for electricityFuel for electricity

Positive Agricultural Positive Agricultural PracticesPractices

PracticePractice EffectEffect

Conservation or riparian Conservation or riparian buffersbuffers

Increased Carbon StorageIncreased Carbon Storage

Conservation Tillage on Conservation Tillage on CroplandCropland

Enhance Carbon Enhance Carbon Sequestration/Reduce Sequestration/Reduce EmissionsEmissions

Grazing Land ManagementGrazing Land Management Enhance Carbon Enhance Carbon Sequestration/Reduce Sequestration/Reduce EmissionsEmissions

Conservation and Conservation and Riparian AreaRiparian Area

Grasses or trees Grasses or trees planted along planted along streams and streams and croplands to croplands to prevent soil erosion prevent soil erosion and nutrient runoff and nutrient runoff into waterwaysinto waterways

Conservation and Conservation and Riparian AreaRiparian Area

Source: Colorado State

Conservation TillageConservation Tillage

> 30% crop residue > 30% crop residue remainsremains

Less Soil Less Soil Disturbance/ Disturbance/ Carbon Carbon AccumulationAccumulation

No till; minimum No till; minimum till; ridge till; mulch till; ridge till; mulch tilltill

Conservation TillageConservation Tillage

Use 50% Less FuelUse 50% Less Fuel Increases Soil Increases Soil

CarbonCarbon Reduces NReduces N22OO

Grazing Land Grazing Land ManagementManagement

Grazing Routes Grazing Routes Carbon Through Carbon Through Digestive TractDigestive Tract

25-50% of Carbon 25-50% of Carbon Returned to Land Returned to Land

Remainder Emitted as Remainder Emitted as COCO22 & CH & CH44

Management for Management for Increased Plant Increased Plant Productivity Increases Productivity Increases Soil CarbonSoil Carbon

Biofuel/Biomass Biofuel/Biomass ProductionProduction

Displaces Fossil Displaces Fossil FuelsFuels Biofuel for DieselBiofuel for Diesel Ethanol for GasEthanol for Gas

Displaces Production Displaces Production of Energy Intensive of Energy Intensive ProductsProducts Wood for SteelWood for Steel

ActivityActivity SequestrationSequestration

Rate Rate (MT/acre/Yr.)(MT/acre/Yr.)

Time Prior to Time Prior to SaturationSaturation

ReferenceReference

(EPA)(EPA)AfforestationAfforestation 0.6 – 2.60.6 – 2.6 90 – 120+ years 90 – 120+ years Birdsey 1996Birdsey 1996

ReforestationReforestation 0.3 – 2.10.3 – 2.1 90 – 120+ years90 – 120+ years Birdsey 1996Birdsey 1996

Changes in Changes in Forest Mangmt.Forest Mangmt.

0.6 - 0.80.6 - 0.8 Wood Products Wood Products Eliminate Eliminate SaturationSaturation

Row 1996Row 1996

Conversion of Conversion of Riparian BuffersRiparian Buffers

0.1 – 0.30.1 – 0.3 Not CalculatedNot Calculated Lal et al. 1999Lal et al. 1999

Convert to Convert to Reduced TillageReduced Tillage

0.2 – 0.30.2 – 0.3 15 – 50 years15 – 50 years Lal et al. 1999Lal et al. 1999

West; Post 2002West; Post 2002

Changes in Changes in Grazing MangmtGrazing Mangmt

0.2 – 0.50.2 – 0.5 25 – 50 years25 – 50 years Follet et al. 2001Follet et al. 2001

Biofuel for Biofuel for Fossil FuelFossil Fuel

1.3 – 1.51.3 – 1.5 Saturation does Saturation does not occurnot occur

Lal et al. 1999Lal et al. 1999

Proposed Benefits of Organic Farming

•Assuming sequestration rates of 3500 lbs of soil carbon per acre/ft per year.

Carbon CreditsCarbon Credits

Chicago Climate ExchangeChicago Climate Exchange CCX AgriculturalCCX Agricultural

Soil Carbon OffsetsSoil Carbon Offsets CCX AgriculturalCCX Agricultural

Methane Emissions OffsetsMethane Emissions Offsets About $4/CFIAbout $4/CFI

European Climate ExchangeEuropean Climate Exchange India?India?

States with CCX Projects

SummarySummary

Agriculture Production Patterns Will Be Forced to Change

Agriculture Producer May Face Greater Risks

As an Industry Eliminating All GHG Pollution Is Not Feasible

Agriculture Can Be Carbon Neutral