Global Warming: A Challenge forGreen Trade

Andrew J. Weaver

School of Earth & Ocean SciencesUniversity of Victoria

Taipei, Taiwan

June 13, 2012

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Globally-Averaged Surface Temperature since 1880

Surface temperature anomaly relative to the 1901-2000 average

The Top 10 Warmest Years since 1880

Surface temperature anomaly relative to the 1901-2000 average

Upper ocean heat content from 1955-2005 relative to the 1961-1990 average

YearTemperatur

e Anomaly

(°C)

2010 0.62

2005 0.62

1998 0.60

2003 0.58

2002 0.57

2009 0.56

2006 0.56

2007 0.55

2004 0.54

2001 0.52

2011 0.51

11t

h

5

Direct measurements of solar intensity

Solar forcing & the global mean surface temperature record

“…over the past 20 years, all the trends in the Sun that could have had an influence on the Earth’s climate have been in the opposite direction to that required to explain the observed rise in global mean temperatures.”

Mike Lockwood

Claus Fröhlich

Lockwood, M., and C. Fröhlich, 2007: Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series A, 463, 2447–2460.

6

Arctic Minimum September Sea Ice Extent

September 16, 2007

Multiyear Arctic sea ice coverage

Multiyear Arctic sea ice coverage

Annual mean projections of future climateAverage from many models (relative to years 1980–1999)

0.2°C/decade warming

independent of

emissions trajectory

1.8°C globally warmer

4.0°C globally warmer

Intergenerational Equity

11Hansen, Sato, Rueby (2012) Public perception of climate change and the new climate dice. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, submitted.

Percent >1 standard deviation (σ): 31.7%; Percent >2σ: 4.6%; Percent >3σ: 0.27%; Percent >4σ: 0.006%; Percent >5σ: 0.000057%

Summer surface temperature anomalies relative to 1951-1980 mean in units of the local detrended 1981-2010 standard deviation

Precipitation

2080–2099 average of many models relative to 1980–1999

12

Smith, JB, SH Schneider, M Oppenheimer et al., 2009: Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the IPCC "reasons for concern". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0812355106

2°C Guardrail

3 °C further warming 50% of all nature reserves will no longer fulfill their conservation mandate

Reasons for Concern1) Response of natural ecosystems

Working Group II of the IPCC

0.9 °C further warming

9%–31% of the world’s species become committed to extinction

1.5 °C further warming

15%–37% of the world’s species become committed to extinction

2.2 °C further warming

21%-52% of the world’s species become committed to extinction

3.3 °C further warming

40%-70% of the world’s species become committed to extinction

Reasons for Concern2) Global security and political instability

80% of cumulative past emissions come from the developed world

ButImpacts are distributed disproportionately to subtropical and hence developing world

Developed nations have technological and economic ability to assist in adaptation

ButDeveloping nations have neither technological nor economic ability to adapt

Environmental Refugees!

USA & Canada on the International Scene (2008 data)

Per capita carbon emissions in metric tonnes

Total carbon emissions in millions in metric tonnes

#76 Sweden 1.45!

Canada / 3.1

#57 Iceland1.93

Canada / 2.3

#205 Ethiopia0.02!

Canada /223

Global population growth

80% of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from more developed nations 80% of the problem from 20% of the people

37 CANADA 33,212,696 CANADA 755 (51st) CANADA 755 (179th)

1 China 1,330,044,544 India 49,631 Ukraine -8202 India 1,147,995,904 China 22,920 Japan -4853 USA 303,824,640 Pakistan 9,464 Bulgaria -1624 Indonesia 237,512,352 Bangladesh 8,506 Belarus -1045 Brazil 196,342,592 Nigeria 8,114 Germany -996 Pakistan 172,800,048 Indonesia 7,646 Romania -837 Bangladesh 153,546,896 USA 7,350 Hungary -698 Nigeria 146,255,312 Ethiopia 7,264 Poland -479 Russia 140,702,096 Brazil 6,606 Georgia -41

10 Japan 127,288,416 Congo 5,897 Latvia -3911 Mexico 109,955,400 Philippines 5,240 Italy -3012 Philippines 96,061,680 Egypt 3,766 Lithuania -2813 Vietnam 86,116,560 Mexico 3,440 Trinidad &Tobago -2614 Ethiopia 82,544,840 Uganda 3,096 Czech Republic -2315 Egypt 81,713,520 Kenya 2,868 Estonia -2316 Germany 82,369,552 Afghanistan 2,355 Montenegro -1717 Turkey 71,892,808 Sudan 2,351 Swaziland -1318 Congo 66,514,504 Vietnam 2,336 Moldova -1119 Iran 65,875,224 Tanzania 2,283 Armenia -620 Thailand 65,493,296 Yemen 2,182 Croatia -521 France 64,057,792 Turkey 1,995 Slovenia -522 United Kingdom 60,943,912 Iraq 1,981 Micronesia -123 Italy 58,145,320 Colombia 1,733 Virgin Islands 024 South Africa 48,782,756 Nepal 1,694 Dominica 025 South Korea 48,379,392 Madagascar 1,650 Guernsey 0

Rank Country Population Country Daily Growth Country Daily Growth

Global population growth 2004

CountryCumulativeEmissions

Cumulative Emissions/

Canada’s Emissions

Population/Canada’s Population

United States 318432.1 13.1 9.3China 92949.9 3.8 40.7Russian Federation 89892.8 3.7 4.5Germany 73208.2 3.0 2.6United Kingdom 55033.8 2.3 1.9Japan 42742.0 1.8 4.0France 28771.1 1.2 1.9India 25895.4 1.1 35.2Canada 24300.1 1.0 1.0Ukraine 23893.7 1.0 1.5Poland 21118.4 0.9 1.2Italy 18164.7 0.7 1.8South Africa 12414.2 0.5 1.5Australia 12166.2 0.5 0.6Mexico 11315.0 0.5 3.2Spain 10178.7 0.4 1.3Kazakhstan 9888.8 0.4 0.5Czech Rep 9503.9 0.4 0.3Belgium 9385.1 0.4 0.3Korea, Rep 9253.6 0.4 1.5Brazil 9112.3 0.4 5.8Netherlands 8747.7 0.4 0.5Iran, Islamic Rep 7634.9 0.3 2.2Romania 6757.3 0.3 0.7Indonesia 6251.0 0.3 7.0Saudi Arabia 6104.6 0.3 0.7

Cumulative emissions of CO2 from 1900-2005 (millions of tons of CO2)

Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Sources

2010:

1) Combustion of Fossil Fuels:Fossil Fuel + Oxygen = Carbon Dioxide + Water Vapour + Heat

3) Deforestation

2) Cement ProductionLimestone (CaCO3) + Clay or SiO2 heated to produce “clinker”

CO2

Combustion of fossil fuels: 8.7 Gigatonnes of carbon (109 kg C) Cement production: 0.4 Gigatonnes of carbon (109 kg C)

Cumulative emissions from 1850 to 2010:

Fossil fuel combustion + Cement Productions:365 Gigatonnes of carbon (109

kg C) Deforestation & land use emissions:

162 Gigatonnes of carbon (109 kg C) Today deforestation has contributed 1/3 of the problem

Tomorrow reforestation can contribute 1/3 of the solution

Land Use Change: 0.9 Gigatonnes of carbon (109 kg C)