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Are there impacts observed thus far caused by the rise in global temperature?

Paul VincelliExtension Professor and

Provost’s Distinguished Service Professor

Preparing the next generation

Objective

To raise awareness of scientifically documented impacts thought to

be associated with anthropogenic global warming.

Outline

Introductory topics Geophysical and biological trends associated

with anthropogenic climate change g g Documented trends vs. expected trends

Where to find mainstream climate science Some teaching resources

Was Superstorm Sandy due to global warming?

Attribution studies

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Video: Weather vs. climate

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0vj-0imOLw&feature=plcp

Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases

IPCC. FAQ

Natural global warming/cooling cycles over past 800,000 years

Hansen et al, 2012

Note temperature differences between ice ages and interglacial periods

Global temperature over past 1000 years

Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years, National Research Council, 2006.

Geographic distribution of warming

Surface temperature change (°C) from 1900-1910 to 2000-2011, from NASA GISS

Annual temperature, Kentucky

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Questions or comments?A few impacts observed in agriculture

Southern bacterial wilt recently diagnosed in Kentucky

http://www.cals.ncsu.edu/course/pp728/Ralstonia/Tomato_bacterial_wilt_symptoms.html

Bacteria streaming from vascular tissue of root

Example of outbreak of southern bacterial wilt

Changes in USDA Plant Hardiness Zones

Longer growing seasons

Weather and Climate Extremesin a Changing ClimateSynthesis and Assessment Product 3.3Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2008

Impact of climate trends on corn yield, 1980-2008

Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980, Science 333:616, 2011

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Geophysical and biological trends associated with anthropogenic climate change

Summer temperature anomalies in northern hemisphere Mean vs. extremes

VIDEO AT: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003900/a003975/bell_final_comp.m4v

Cryosphere: Sea ice vs. ice sheets vs. glaciers

Continental ice sheet(http://www.solcomhouse.com/icecap.htm)

Sea ice (at right)(http://fac-staff.seattleu.edu/gualtieri/web/images/sea_ice.jpg)

Glacier(http://www.usgs.gov/images/topical/glaciers/dsc00035.jpg

Area of sea ice

Arctic Antarctic

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/ See also http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/arctic-antarctic-ice.html

Arctic sea ice

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=79256&src=share

Melting ice sheets

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Most glaciers are losing mass

Muir Glacier, photographed by W. O. Field in August 1941 and B. F. Molnia in August 2004

Permafrost temperatures (degrees C, at 20 m depth)

V.E. Romanovsky, updated from Osterkamp, T. E. (2003). A thermal history of permafrost in Alaska, In: Phillips, M., Springman, S.M. and Arenson, L.U. eds. 8th International Conference on Permafrost, 20-25 July 2003, Zurich. Lisse, A.A. Balkema Publishers.

Methane emitted from melting permafrost

The total carbon in permafrost >1600 Gt more than 2X the

Courtesy UAF Photo by Todd Paris

>1600 Gt, more than 2X the atmospheric total (Brysse et al, 2012, Global Envir. Change)

Duration of ice cover on lakes

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators/pdfs/CI-snow-and-ice.pdf

Questions and comments?

Clarity? Doubts?

Pedagogy?Curriculum?

Observed global mean sea level (from tide gauges)

Cazenave and Llovel. 2010. Contemporary Sea Level Rise. Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci. 2:145–73

In geologic past, sea level changed 10-20 m for every 1°C. (Archer, 2012, Global Warming. J. Wiley.

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Warning: “Alarmist” image follows

James Hansen, NASA

Rate of sea level rise depends in part on West Antarctica

http://geology.com/world/antarctica-satellite-image.shtml

Questions and comments?

Clarity? Doubts?

Pedagogy?Curriculum?

Huntington, Climate Warming-Induced Intensification of the Hydrologic Cycle: An Assessment of the Published Record and Potential Impacts on Agriculture, Advances in Agronomy

Intense rainfall events are increasing

http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2012/09/extreme-weather/data-charts

Trend in Palmer Drought Severity Index

J. GEOPHYSICAL RES 116:D12115 Trend in Sahel linked to AGW via modeling studies.

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Atmospheric water content increasing since 1900

Santer et al, 2007, Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content. PNAS 104:15248.

Aerosols from Mt. Pinatubo affected global hydrologic cycle

Huntington, Climate Warming-Induced Intensification of the Hydrologic Cycle: An Assessment of the Published Record and Potential Impacts on Agriculture, Advances in Agronomy

Intensifying global water cycle due to global warming, as measured by changes in sea surface salinity

Observed Modeled with warming

Durack et al. 2012. Ocean Salinities Reveal Strong Global Water Cycle Intensification. During 1950 to 2000. Science 336:455-458.

Salinityunits

Testing for a “human fingerprint”: Comparing observations to model runs including (and excluding) the effects of greenhouse gases.

Flooding

No clear trend of increased flooding associated with global warming

Tornadoes and hurricanes

Still scientific debate about the role of greenhouse gases…

Numerous elements of hydrological cycle are increasing

But impacts on major storms remains debatable

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Questions or comments?

Clarity? Doubts?

Pedagogy?Curriculum?

Rossby waves are meandering upper-level winds

Pink=jet stream

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rossby_wave

Changes in Arctic are being linked to persistent weather systems in mid-latitudes

Rossby waves with higher amplitude, slower movement Predicted from theory Documented in research

Sometimes referred to as atmospheric “blocking”

See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4spEuh8vswE and Francis et al, Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes, 2012, Geophys. Res. Lett.

Explanation in “An Arctic Wild Card in the Weather”, at http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/25-2_greene.pdf

Hurricane Sandy’s westerly turn

http://www.skepticalscience.com/hurricane-sandy-double-whammy.html

Start video at 4 min, 10 sec

Ocean CO2

Creating conditions mimicking the end of the Permian, the greatest period of extinction in Earth’s history.

NASA

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Forest die-off from around the world

Anderegg et al, 2012. Consequences of widespread tree mortality triggered by drought and temperature stress. Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1635

Changing geographic ranges

http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2010/07/21/american_robins_move_into_arctic/

Loblolly pine in Kentucky

http://people.duke.edu/~cwcook/trees/pita.html

Changing geography of ecological niches

Centroid of a triangle

VandeWal et al, 2012. Focus on poleward shifts in species’ distribution underestimates the fingerprint of climate change. Nature Climate Change DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1688

At left, changing niches of bird species in Australia, 1950-2010, indicated by changing niche centroids.

Changes in flowering times in plants

Early season species are flowering earlier.

Late-season species are flowering later.

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Questions or comments?

Clarity? Doubts?

Pedagogy?Curriculum?

Concerns for human health/well-being

Increased risk of infectious diseases

http://www.michigan.gov/deq/0,4561,7-135-3313_46123_24554-68318--,00.htmlhttp://www.aspca.org/pet-care/small-pet-care/rat-care.aspxhttp://www.fcps.edu/islandcreekes/ecology/american_dog_tick.htm

Increased risk of heat-related illnesses

Images from the Centers for Disease Control

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Cardiovascular risks from increasing ozone

Devlin et al, 2012. Controlled Exposure of Healthy Young Volunteers to Ozone Causes Cardiovascular Effects. Circulation 126:104-111

Asthma

Image of the World Health Organization

Vibrio cases increase in the Baltic Sea with warming temp

Baker-Austin et al, 2012. Emerging Vibrio risk at high latitudes in response to ocean warming. Nature Climate Change DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1628

Heat and mental health

Page et al, 2007. Relationship between daily suicide counts and temperature in England and Wales. Brit. J. Psychiatry 191:106-112.

Vulnerable populations

http://climatewisconsin.org/

Questions and comments?

Clarity? Doubts?

Pedagogy?Curriculum?

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Where to find mainstream climate science

Information resources based on peer-reviewed literature

National Research CouncilIndividual researchers with sustained publication records

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Skeptical Science

http://www.skepticalscience.com/

Some potential teaching resources

Citizen-science databases

http://www.facingthefuture.org/ServiceLearning/ClimateChangeActionProjects/GoodNeighborPledge/tabid/334/Default.aspx

http://www.nwf.org/Global-Warming/School-Solutions/Eco-Schools-USA/Become-an-Eco-School/Cool-School-Challenge.aspx