global water challenges river basin management opportunities and risks
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Global Water Challenges: River Basin Management Opportunities and Risks A presentation by Don Blackmore (The presentation has been modified from the original version to remove any copyrighted material) Water Land and Ecosystems High Level Dialogue New Delhi 3 May 2013TRANSCRIPT
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River Basin ManagementOpportunities and Risks
Don Blackmore | 3 May 2013
Global Water Challenges
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The reform agendaPolicy | Institutional | Instruments | Tools
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Ratio of maximum annual flow tominimum annual flow for selected rivers
15.5MURRAYAUSTRALIA
4705.2DARLINGAUSTRALIA
54.3HUNTERAUSTRALIA
16.9ORANGESOUTH AFRICA
3.9POTOMACUSA
2.4WHITE NILESUDAN
2.0YANGTZECHINA
1.9RHINESWITZERLAND
1.3AMAZONBRAZIL
RATIO BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM and
the MINIMUMANNUAL FLOWS
RIVERCOUNTRY
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Evolution of Water Management in Australia
Pioneering and Discovery Phase
1880 – 1920
Delivery Phase 1920 – 1985
Management Phase 1985- Present
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Dams - How Many?
40,000 over 15m since 1950• One every 2 days
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Trans-boundry Rivers
Currently 261• Covering: 145 nations
45.3% land surface of earth
80% available freshwater
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Water Treaties
3600 Water related treaties since AD 805
6 minor water related skirmishes
1 major conflict
One new country
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Murray-Darling
Indus GangesMekong
Nile
Euphrates
The clash of PERCEPTION vs FACT
The Basins – Murray-Darling / Africa & Asia
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Driving Philosophy: You can’t manage what you can’t measure and describe
The Murray-Darling Basin
Must move from perceptions to fact
“Sufficient certainty” enables the hard questions and tradeoffs to be tackled
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Ganges River Basin
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The River – South Asia Monsoons
A highly variable hydrology
Difficult to manage
Prone to drought and flood
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Ganges Water Balance
Baseline High Dev.0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Total flowActive storageConsumptive useGroundwater
Annual volume
(km3)
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Fact
The next 20+ major dams will have little impact on mainstream Ganges floods
Major hydro electric benefits exist
Surface irrigation is of low value
Conjunctive water use—huge opportunity—can be delivered now, a.k.a. the Ganges water machine
Global Circulation Models have not agreed on the outcome of climate change
Perception
Major dams will deliver multiple benefits, including the control of Ganges floods
More surface water for irrigation is good
Climate change will have a catastrophic impact
Ganges
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The Mekong
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Areas affected by salinity intrusion
Baseline results
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Mekong Water Balance
Baseline High Dev.0
100
200
300
400
500
Total flowActive storageConsumptive use
Annual volume
(km3)
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Fact
China dams deliver a much needed increase in low flow and mitigate salinity intrusion in the delta. They also provide scope increase irrigation diversion with little impact on fisheries
There is significant scope in energy and irrigation development provided they meet international standards
Perception
Hydro electric dams in China will have a negative effect on lower riparians
There is little space for development without significant environmental tradeoffs
Mekong
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The Australian Story
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1. Diminishing water security
Climate change and drought
Urban population growth
2. Over-allocation of resources
Rapid and poorly managed expansion of irrigation (1960s-1980s)
Uncontrolled groundwater use
Drier climate since 1950s
3. Environmental degradation
Salinity
Toxic algal blooms
Decline in native fish, birds and floodplain vegetation
Australia’s top 3 water issues
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The reform agendaPolicy | Institutional | Instruments | Tools
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The Murray-Darling Basin
70% of Australia’s irrigated agriculture
However...
Serious over-allocation of water between 1960s-1980s
10500 The Cap
'20s '30s '40s '50s '60s '70s '80s '90s0
8000
16000
24000
32000
QLD VIC NSW MDBC TOTAL
(GL)
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Elements of the reform agenda
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National water policy reform (1994-2004)1994 COAG water reforms
Institutional reform (rural and urban)
Property rights and water markets/trading
Environmental flow provisions
Groundwater management
Water included in National Competition Policy
2004 National Water Initiative
Review and update of 1994 reforms
New powers and role for Commonwealth (Federal) Government
New Commonwealth Water Act (2007)
Water for the Future fund ($12.9 billion)
Murray-Darling Basin Plan
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Trading volumes
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Managing through drought: Alloc vs trade
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Water productivity improvements in China
Cities now take almost all the water…. but agricultural output
relatively steady
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Irrigation benchmarking
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India is taking up the challenge
“Resilience of ecosystems to become a central plank of policy”
“20% increase in water use efficiency of irrigation”
“National Aquifer Management Programme”
“ cut energy losses and stabilise groundwater”
“convert watershed management programme into a productivity enhancing instrument”
“management of liquid and solid waste promoted together with recycling and reuse”
“Indian cities and industries have to reinvent their water trajectory”
“paradigm shift in flood management away from building more embankments”
State Water Regulatory Authorities – “autonomy and accountability”
Model Bill for Protection, Conservation, Management and Regulation of Groundwater
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The Murray-Darling Basin Plan (2010-11)Defines ‘Sustainable Diversion Limits’
For 20 River Valleys in MDB (in different States)
Covers surface- and ground-waters
Will consider climate change risks
Protect environmental ‘assets’
Floodplain forests and wetlands
Environmental flows
Water quality and salinity
Political and social implications
State ‘Water Sharing Plans’ must be accredited
Social impacts must be considered
Based on ‘best-available’ science (evidence-based policy)
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Building the new integrated modelling system
for Australia
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CLIMATE
LAND USE
ECOLOGICAL ASSETS
DAMS & WEIRS
IRRIGATION CITIES
IMSIntegrated modelling system (IMS)
for rural and urban water management
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Murray-Darling
Indus GangesMekong
Nile
Euphrates
The clash of PERCEPTION vs FACT
The Basins – Murray-Darling / Africa & Asia
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Credit: NASA/Trent Schindler and Matt Rodell
Punjab is a Global Hotspot in GW over-exploitation