global wood industry demand, supply, issues phill guay
TRANSCRIPT
Global Wood IndustryDemand, Supply, Issues
Phill Guay
Global Impacts
Effects• Less dramatic• Longer term• Larger
Response• Day to day– Run locally
• Investments– View globally
Sales• Consider offshore
Demand Drivers
• China• Bio energy• Carbon sequestering• Alternatives
US Supply
Drivers
• Costs– Currency – Tariffs & Duties– Taxes– Transportation– Political
China
Status• Largest importer• Globally flexible• Largest exporter
– Furniture– Flooring– Plywood
Round Wood Imports
China SourcesMillion m3
Logs 2002 2007
Russia 14.8 25.4
PNG 1.1 2.3
Malaysia 2.1 1.3
Other 6.3 8.1
Total 24.3 37.1
Sawn wood 2002 2007
Russia 0.5 2.4
USA 0 1.6
Canada 0 1.0
Other 7.6 4.8
Total 8.1 9.8
Russian Supply
Log Duty• 2006
– 6.5%• 2007
– 20%• 2008
– 25%• 2009
– 20 %• 2010+
– 80% ???
Issues• Duty• Value added• Legal logging• Foreign capital
Global PlantationsMillions of Hectares
PlantationsChina Share
Other Issues
Legal logging• Lacey Act• EU initiatives
Drivers• Who is questioned• Response
Bio Energy
Carbon Sequestering
Summary
• Canada has options– US – China– Japan – Korea
• Legal logging– Drives up stumpage
• Bio energy– Drives up pulp /small
diameter
China• Remains largest– Import– Exporter
• More self sufficient• Industry growth
subsides
Russia• Great unknown
Conclusions
Pricing• Recovers Supply• Moves globally• Shifts to plantations
Survivors• Diversity sources• Diversify outlets