Globalisation- Do We Need a Paradigm Shift in Official Statistics?

Chair:Professor Andrew ChesherUniversity College London

Dr Silke Stapel- WeberDirector of National Accounts, Prices and Key Indicators, Eurostat

Eurostat

Globalisation – do we need a paradigm shift in official

statistics ?

Silke Stapel-Weber

Economic Statistics in a Digital Age: Meeting the Challenges of an Evolving, Modern Economy

Newport, 21-22 February 2017

Eurostat

Content:

Bridging consistency and asymmetry aspects

Trade asymmetries UK-EU in detail

Conclusions: Do we need a paradigm shift ?

NA and BOP consistency

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Extent of discrepancies in the non-financial accounts of NA and BOP

Absolute discrepancies, 2010-2015, sum of EU-28 MS (EUR million) – data vintage: January 2017

Eurostat

The geographical breakdown of NA-BOP discrepancies in the EU

Absolute discrepancies, by EU-28 MS, mean 2010-2015 (EUR million) – data vintage: January 2017

UK: No discrepancies !

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Bridging NA-BOP consistency and asymmetry aspects (1)

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10

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1GB

SE

FISK

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RO PT

PLAT

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HU

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LTLVCY

IT

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GR

IE

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DE

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CZBG

BE

Discrepancies

Asym

met

ries

Absolute discrepancies/asymmetries, trade in services, by MS, 2015 (normalised presentation)

Eurostat

Bridging NA-BOP consistency and asymmetry aspects (2)

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10

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GB

SE

FI

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PTPL

ATNL

MTHU

LU

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LV

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GRIE

EE

DE

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CZ

BG

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Discrepancies

Asym

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Relative discrepancies/asymmetries, services, by MS, 2015 (normalised presentation)

Eurostat

Significance of asymmetries in UK Goods

Total absolute asymmetries in UK goods, by selected EU partners, 2015 (percentage of GDP)

2015 % of GDP (UK)

% of GDP (partner)

Belgium 0.4 2.6Germany 0.6 0.5Ireland 0.3 3.3France 0.2 0.2Luxembourg 0.0 1.4Netherlands 0.4 1.3

Eurostat

Significance of asymmetries in UK Services

Total absolute asymmetries in UK services, by selected EU partners, 2015 (percentage of GDP)

2015 % of GDP (UK)

% of GDP (partner)

Belgium 0.4 2.4Germany 0.6 0.5Ireland 0.7 6.9France 0.5 0.5Luxembourg 0.8 38.5Netherlands 0.3 1.2

Eurostat

Impact of asymmetries on the economic reading of data

Goods (2015) UK net importer from the EU-27 = EUR –122.5 bn EU-27 net exporter to UK = EUR 135.1 bn

Services (2015) UK net exporter to the EU-27 = EUR 28.8 bn EU-27 also net exporter to UK = EUR 30.1 bn

Eurostat

Patterns in UK trade asymmetries

2013 2014 2015 0

10 000

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80 000

Goods Imports (UK) Goods Exports (UK) Services Imports (UK) Services Exports (UK)

Absolute asymmetries of the UK with its EU partners, 2013-15 (EUR million)

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Trade asymmetries in UK Services Imports

Absolute mean asymmetries of UK import

transactions in services, by EU partner, 2013-15 (percentage of total

asymmetries)

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Absolute mean asymmetries of UK export

transactions in services, by EU partner,

2013-15 (percentage of total

asymmetries)

Trade asymmetries in UK Services Exports

Eurostat

Major services components affected

Other business services

Transport

Financial services

Telecommunication, computer and information services

Insurance and pension services

Covering approx. 85% of total absolute asymmetries

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Conclusions - UK

Fully consistent NA and BOP

Significant asymmetries in services with EU partners

Challenges to economic reading and reputation for all partners

UK services imports most exposed

Eurostat

Asymmetries only concentrated around a few countries (8) and industries (5)

Originator can be determined by bilateral comparison only

Higher degree of coordination with European and worldwide partners needed

Conclusions - UK

Eurostat

ConclusionsDo we need a paradigm shift?

Yes we do!

In a globalised, interconnected world

no country alone can compile reliable

and comparable NA and BOP

Many international initiatives to address obstacles to

information sharing, investments in the statistical

infra-structure and communication

Eurostat

Paradigm shift:

Access to data and coordinated cross-border profiling, “early warning system”

Unique/linked identifiers, coordinated registersFocus on users: explain domestic and global developments; additional indicators within the existing accounting frameworks

Cross-border information sharing and overcoming perceived and cultural obstacles

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