globalisation, growth, chinaoutline of presentation •china’s growth drivers: past & future...
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Globalisation, Growth, China
Linda YuehUniversity of Oxford & London Business School
www.lindayueh.comTwitter @lindayueh
Outline of presentation
• China’s growth drivers: past & future
• China’s integral role in international trade/global supply chains
• Global impact from China’s slowdown
2
Real Average GDP Growth and Institutional Reform
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
19791980
19811982
19831984
19851986
19871988
19891990
19911992
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
CRS
HRS
%
"Open door" policy
WTO membershipBRS
Stock markets established
Company Law passed
Private property recognised
3
Average income near “trap” level
China’s impressive growth
5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
%
Growth drivers
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60-70% from capital/labour
30-40% TFP productivity
9.6% average
GDP growth
7
50% adding capital
10-20% adding
workers
60-70% Factor
accumulation
8
11-15% Human capital
8-15% Re-allocativeefficiency
16-17% Innovation
30-40% TFP
9
Up to 2/3rd Imitation
6-13% Technology
16-17% Innovation
Contributions to growth
Factor accumulation: 60-70%
• Capital accumulation: 50%
• Labour accumulation: 10-20%
Total Factor Productivity (TFP): 30-40%
• Human capital: 11-15%
• Factor re-allocation: 8-15%
• Innovation: 16-17% minus “imitation” = 6-13%
10
Re-balancing challenges
(1) Increase reliance on own market, less on exports
(2) Raise consumption, reduce inefficient savings
(3) Grow private sector, reduce distortions from state-owned sector
(4) Increase innovation, as imitation limits reached
(5) Continued opening, include firms “going global”
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China’s role in international trade & global impact
China rising
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Source: IMF
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China “going global”
Source: IMF.
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
19821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
US
$bn
Exports as share of GDP
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Singapore Hong KongSAR
Malaysia Thailand Korea,Republic of
Philippines Indonesia China India Japan Germany UnitedStates
1990 1995 2000 2007
Trade as share of GDP
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Singapore Hong KongSAR
Malaysia Thailand Korea,Republic of
Philippines Indonesia China India Japan Germany UnitedStates
1990 1995 2000 2007
$0
$2 000
$4 000
$6 000
$8 000
$10 000
$12 000
$14 000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
intra-regional Rest of the world
Intra-regional/global supply chains
Page 18
Total exports of China to the rest of the world (US$1,000), 1980-2005
0
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
700,000,000
800,000,000
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Primary agricultural products Primary mineral products
Machinery & equipment Office machines, telecomm. equipment & electrical machinery
Clothing & apparel accessories, textiles, footwear Other manufactures
Source: UN.
Page 19
Total imports of China from the rest of the world (US$1,000), 1985-2005
0
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
700,000,000
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Agricultural raw materials Petroleum & gas
Metals and other minerals Office machines, telecomm. equipment & electrical machinery
Chemicals & related products Other manufactures
Source: UN.
China consumes (% of world’s)
• 54% of aluminium, 50% of nickel, 48% of copper, 45% of steel
• 30% of rice
• 23% of gold
• 17% of wheat
• 12% of oil
• 6% of natural gas
Source: WEF.
China’s global impact
• End of commodity super-cycle
• Slowdown & economic restructuring will affect exporters, including capital goods
• Slower income growth will also have impact on multinational companies from the West
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