gluten-free market explosion will the boom continue

GLUTEN-FREE MARKET EXPLOSION – WILL THE BOOM CONTINUE INDEFINITELY?

CARL-FILIP CLAUSSON RESEARCH ANALYST

FREE FROM FOOD EXPO, JUNE 2015, BARCELONA

EUROMONITOR INTERNATIONAL

GLOBAL INSIGHT

BAKERY

PASTA

BABY FOOD

READY MEALS

OUTLOOK

QUESTIONS

© Euromonitor International

3 COMPANY INTRODUCTION

http://www.euromonitor.com/


GLOBAL INSIGHT

BAKERY

PASTA

BABY FOOD

READY MEALS

OUTLOOK

QUESTIONS


5

INCLUDED EXCLUDED

Euromonitor International Gluten-Free Definitions

GLOBAL INSIGHT

Specially manufactured foods which are labelled as gluten-free, usually available to

replace flour, bread, biscuits and pasta

Products which are naturally free from gluten are excluded

Source: Catelli Foods Corp Source: HiPP UK Ltd



6

Global Market Size of Gluten-free Food

GLOBAL INSIGHT

Food intolerance 2014 % of global sales

Lactose-free 66%

Gluten-free 26%

Diabetic food 8%

Packaged food 2014 % of global sales

Food intolerance 0.5%

Gluten-free 0.1%



7

Gluten-free Market Size for Europe

GLOBAL INSIGHT

1,113.1

Europe Figure 2014, EUR million

Main markets 2014 % of global sales

US 24%

Italy 13%

UK 9%

Australia 9%

Germany 8%

Russia 7%

France 3%

Sweden 3%

Spain 2%

Brazil 2%



8

Global Gluten-free Per Capita Sales

GLOBAL INSIGHT

Other categories 2014 per capita EUR

Packaged food 238

Food intolerance 1.2

Lactose-free 0.7

Gluten-free 0.3

Diabetic food 0.1



9

Gluten-free Per Capita Sales for Europe

GLOBAL INSIGHT

1.9

Europe Figure 2014, EUR million

Global ranking 2014 per capita EUR

Norway 8.8

Iceland 8.2

Australia 6.9

Finland 6.8

New Zealand 5.1

Sweden 5.0

Italy 3.9

Austria 3.9

Switzerland 2.7

UK 2.7

..... .....

US 1.4

Russia 0.9



10

Performance of the Top Gluten-free Brands Globally

GLOBAL INSIGHT

Dr Schär (Dr Schär AG)

Udi's (Smart Balance Inc)

Private Label

Semper (Hero AG)

Nestlé Baby (Nestlé SA)

Glutino (Smart Balance Inc)

Mrs Crimble's (Mrs Crimble's)

Glutano (Dr Schär AG)

Glutafin (Dr Schär AG)

Helga's (Goodman Fielder Ltd)

0

50

100

150

200

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

EU

R m

n (

cu

rr

en

t fi

xe

d e

xc

ha

ng

e r

ate

s)



11

Company Market Shares in Major Gluten-free Markets

GLOBAL INSIGHT

Italy Germany

Russia United States

Top-3 Companies 2014 Retail Value RSP, % breakdown

Smart Balance Inc 42

Enjoy Life Foods LLC 3

Food Directions Inc 3


Hero Group GmbH 50

Danone Groupe 11

Sady Pridonya OAO NPG 7


Dr Schär AG/SpA 54

Malgara Chiari & Forti SpA 9

Danone Groupe 8


Dr Schär AG 46

Haus Rabenhorst GmbH 13

Laurens Spethmann AG 9



12

Sensitive to gluten

Gluten-free diet

considered as healthier

Feeling more

energetic

Weight management

Target Audience Stretches Beyond Coeliac Sufferers

GLOBAL INSIGHT

Coeliac disease



13

Nutritional content higher in fat

Nutritional content higher in sugar

Unintended consequences such as

potential compensation with a

high GI food diet

But Nutritional Content Is Under Scrutiny

GLOBAL INSIGHT



14

Global Retail Sales of Gluten-free by Product, 2009-2019

GLOBAL INSIGHT

EU

R m

n (

co

ns

tan

t fi

xe

d e

xc

ha

ng

e r

ate

s)

64%

14%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Bakery Products Pasta Baby Food Ready Meals

14%

8%

2014

share



GLOBAL INSIGHT

BAKERY

PASTA

BABY FOOD

READY MEALS

OUTLOOK

QUESTIONS


16

Global Gluten-free Bakery Forecast Growth

BAKERY


US 15%

UK 7%

Australia 7%

Italy 7%

Germany 5%

France 3%

Sweden 2%

Finland 2%

Norway 2%

Austria 1%



17

Global Bread Forecast Growth

BAKERY


US 16%

Brazil 7%

China 6%

Mexico 6%

Japan 5%

France 5%

Italy 5%

Germany 5%

UK 4%

Turkey 3%



18

New Product Development in Gluten-free Bakery

BAKERY

Origin:

USP:

Success:

Source:

Australia

Cross-intolerance (gluten free, wheat free and dairy free)

Very successful (boosted with bakery shelf space and

similarity in texture to regular bread)

Genius Foods Ltd

Origin:

USP:

Success:

Source:

Canada

Improved taste, wide variety, leading bakery producer

Great success (placed in bakery section, similar in taste in

texture to regular bread, matches well with demand)

George Weston Ltd

Origin:

USP:

Success:

Source:

Argentina

Low calories, healthy image

Good success (mainly due to the healthy image and big

marketing campaign and not because of gluten

awareness) Molinos Río de la Plata SA



19

New Product Development in Gluten-free Bakery

BAKERY

Origin:

USP:

Success:

Source:

United Kingdom

Well-known brand, low unit price, fortified

Good success (good taste and texture, launched on a

large and mature market, good social media exposure)

Nestlé UK Ltd

Origin:

USP:

Success:

Source:

United States

Convenient, low unit price

Good success (launched on a big and growing market,

one of the biggest producers, good taste and texture)

General Mills Inc



GLOBAL INSIGHT

BAKERY

PASTA

BABY FOOD

READY MEALS

OUTLOOK

QUESTIONS


21

Global Gluten-free Pasta Forecast Growth

PASTA


Italy 29%

Germany 14%

US 12%

Venezuela 12%

Australia 8%

UK 4%

Turkey 4%

Canada 3%

Spain 2%

France 1%



22

New Product Development in Gluten-free Pasta

PASTA

Origin:

USP:

Success:

Source:

United States

Well-known brand, low unit price

Very successful (good taste and texture and a low unit

price on a big market where mainly niche players have

reigned before, better shelf exposure) Barilla America Inc

Origin:

USP:

Success:

Source:

South Korea

Convenient, promoted with digestive health

Limited success (low awareness of gluten-free products,

but the use of rice was appealing)

Ourhome Inc

Origin:

USP:

Success:

Source:

Columbia

Well-known brand, made with corn

No success (very low awareness of gluten-free products,

premium unit price)

Harinera Del Valle SA



GLOBAL INSIGHT

BAKERY

PASTA

BABY FOOD

READY MEALS

OUTLOOK

QUESTIONS


24

Global Gluten-free Baby Food Forecast Growth

BABY FOOD


Russia 41%

Brazil 18%

Spain 10%

Italy 9%

Hungary 5%

Portugal 4%

Ukraine 4%

Germany 3%

Israel 2%

Belarus 1%



25

New Product Development in Gluten-free Baby Food

BABY FOOD

Origin:

USP:

Success:

Source:

Russia

Known brand, natural ingredients

Limited success (high unit price, limited marketing, fairly

small brand)

HiPP Russ OOO



GLOBAL INSIGHT

BAKERY

PASTA

BABY FOOD

READY MEALS

OUTLOOK

QUESTIONS


27

Global Gluten-free Ready Meals Forecast Growth

READY MEALS


US 77%

UK 10%

Norway 9%

Italy 2%



28

New Product Development in Gluten-free Ready Meals

READY MEALS

Origin:

USP:

Success:

Source:

Norway

Well-known brand, low unit price

Good success (leading pizza manufacturer, launched by

consumer request, good taste and texture, low unit price,

wide distribution) Orkla Foods Norge AS



GLOBAL INSIGHT

BAKERY

PASTA

BABY FOOD

READY MEALS

OUTLOOK

QUESTIONS


30

Amaranth

Quinoa

Kamut

Barley

Oats* Polenta

(cornmeal)

Buckwheat*

Millet

Teff

Supergrains Drive Gluten-free Innovation

OUTLOOK

High protein

and gluten-

free

Wheat free

but contain

gluten

Gluten and

wheat free

High fibre

and

gluten-free

* Contamination risk



31

Standards reinforce consumer trust

Largest players get involved

Unit prices will decline

Untapped dietary consumer base

Many countries still lack these products

Expected increase in the forecast

Number of coeliac diagnoses will increase

Diagnosis will be cheaper and faster

A large portion of the global population run the risk of becoming intolerant to gluten (50% in Australia, 30% in the US)

Medical advancements

Vaccination (e.g. Nexvax2)

High levels of sugar and fat

Taste and texture

New diets

Will the Gluten-free Boom Continue Indefinitely?

OUTLOOK

Opportunities Threats



32

Global Gluten-free Forecast Growth

OUTLOOK

Food Intolerance The Second Fastest Growing Food Category Globally

Main markets % of global forecasted

sales actuals

US 36%

Australia 19%

France 9%

Italy 6%

Norway 5%

Russia 3%

Germany 3%

Netherlands 2%

UK 2%

Finland 2%


THANK YOU FOR LISTENING Carl-Filip Clausson

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gluten-free market explosion will the boom continue

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