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TRANSCRIPT
Editor : Eric Shu
Tel : +852-2277-6678
e-mail : [email protected]
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THE WEEKLY AGENDA
Phillip Talks: The week ahead in gold and stocks
SET Outlook: Sideways down Sideways down, awaiting new triggers: Thai stocks could
likely be headed down early this week as signs of foreign selling has started to come into view after the Fed disappointed the market by ruling out an aggressive monetary-easing campaign and the dollar index hit a two-year peak of 98.37. The market has, however, partly priced in these two factors, so we believe the downside would be limited. By the week’s end, we expect the Thai bourse to hold flat pending fresh catalysts apart from the government’s stimulus measures.
Domestic factors: In our view, several small bomb incidents are likely to put pressure on the SET index whereas the government’s stimulus policies would support it. If such policies are not launched, the market would lose its steam and inch down.
Overall outlook: We assume the index would trade sideways with a downside bias between 1650 and 1690 points.
Strategy for SET50 Futures: Trading short in a range between 1,090 and 1,120 points
Weekly Consensus View
Quite Bearish
Key issues to watch 7 Aug: The central bank will
review its policy rate. Key economic data
Japan 8 Aug: Q2 GDP
US 5 Aug: Service
PMI 9 Aug: Producer
Price Index (PPI) UK
9 Aug: Q2 GDP
Gold Outlook: Gold likely to test previous high Gold prices seen to test previous high on trade war
escalation: US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose a 10% tariff on the remaining $300bn of Chinese imports starting Sept 1 and his statement on trade with the EU to be delivered on late Friday night (Thai time) would continue to trigger a rush to safe-haven assets and push gold prices to test the previous high of $1,425. However, it seems to us that the test would fail given ongoing uncertainties over the protracted US-China trade dispute, no-deal Brexit and US economic figures.
Strategy for Gold Futures: Trading long in a range between 1,420 and 1,460 points.
Strategy Team #487
5 – 9 Aug 2019
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02 635 1700 ต่อ 486 Technical Team #487
Weekly Technical View
Prices fell back to stand at support level and held its position. Overall, the prices were at the lower band of sideways channel. Thus, the stock is likely to hold and rebound back up.
“SET seen to rebound then declline”
The SET index opened gap down at EMA-200 and managed to hold while Modi. Sto. had an oversold condition. So the index is expected to recover a little bit and then weaken again.
Prices dipped but managed to hold while Modi. Sto. issued a buy signal. There is a possibility that the stock would inch up.
Support Resistance
Support
Support
THE WEEKLY AGENDA 5 – 9 Aug 2019
Resistance
resistance
ext. 485
BDMS 24.50 / 24.00
26.25 / 26.50 KBANK
172.00 / 169.00
182.50 / 186.00
1665 / 1635
1715 / 1750
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WEEKLY STATISTICS
Performance of major Asian currencies against US dollar
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
Thai
land
Viet
nam
Hong
kon
g
Indi
a
Chin
a
Philip
ines
Taiw
an
Kore
a
Sing
apor
e
Mal
aysia
Indo
nesi
a
WOW MTD YTDAp
prec
iatio
nD
epre
ciat
ion
-2.93%
-2.37%
-2.28%
-2.14%
-1.47%
-1.21%
-1.06%
-1.05%
-0.54%
0.41%
0.89%
-4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0%
Hong kong
Korea
India
Singapore
Taiwan
China
Thailand
Philipines
Malaysia
Vietnam
Indonesia
w-w Asian stock market performances
Source: Bloomberg
5 – 9 Aug 2019
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-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
27 M
ay 1
9
3 Ju
n 19
10 Ju
n 19
17 Ju
n 19
24 Ju
n 19
1 Ju
l 19
8 Ju
l 19
15 Ju
l 19
22 Ju
l 19
29 Ju
l 19
Thailand Philippines S.Korea Taiwan Vietnam Indonesia India
Unit: Mil US$
WEEKLY STATISTICS
Foreign portfolio Flows into 7 ASIAN bourses
Forward P/E ratios of Asian stock markets 18.93
17.5416.57 16.35 16.25 16.14 15.85
12.9012.19
10.61
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
India
Phili
ppin
es
Mal
aysi
a
Vie
tnam
Indon
esia
Tha
iland
Tai
wan
Sing
apor
e
Chin
a
Hon
g Kon
g
Mean = 15.07
Source: Bloomberg
5 – 9 Aug 2019
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02 635 1700 ต่อ 486
Commodity Watch
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5 – 9 Aug 2019
CUSGHYDF OILA Index Olefin Spread NEX Index (Weekly)
Positive Negative BCP, IRPC, PTTGC Positive Negative IRPC, PTTGC, SCC Positive Negative BANPU
TOP
Dubai Aromatic Spread BDI Index
Positive Negative BCP, IRPC, PTTGC Positive Negative IRPC, PTTGC, TOP Positive Negative JUTHA, PSL,TTA
TOP, PTTEP
Rubber RSS3 Sugar#11 VIX Index
Positive Negative STA Positive Negative KBS, KSL, KTIS Negative Positive SET Index
Soybeans Cotton GOLD
Positive Negative TVO Positive Negative IVL Negative Positive SET Index
Negative Positive CPF, GFPT, TU
Unit: US$/bbl Unit: US$/ton
Unit: US$/bbl
Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg
Unit: US$/ton Unit: US$/ton
Unit: US$/ton Unit: US$/ounce
Unit: US cents/Kg Unit: Cents/Ib
Unit: US cents/bushel
0
2
4
6
8
10
Mar 19
Mar 19
Apr 19
May 19
Jun 19
Jul 19
GRM 7.37(1.02)
20
40
60
80
100
Mar-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
2,100
Mar-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Spread: HDPE-Naphtha (RHS)
HDPE (LHS)
Naphtha (LHS)
HDPE spread 506.9(-12.51)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Mar-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Spread: Paraxylene-Naphtha (RHS)
Paraxylene (LHS)
Naphtha (LHS)
PX spread 329.41(0)
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
Mar-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
Mar-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Baltic Dry Index 1812(-110)
0
10
20
30
40
50
Mar-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
VIX index 17.98(5.15)
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
Mar-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
100
120
140
160
180
200
Mar-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Rubber RSS3 149(-14.2)
0
4
8
12
16
20
Mar-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
Mar-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Soybeans 850.75(-35)
40
60
80
100
120
Mar-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Cotton 61.11(-2.66)
Dubai 62.48(1.13)
NEX 66.24(-6.3)
Sugar#11 11.97(-0.1)
GOLD 1406.4(-12.55)
Contact Information of Hong Kong Representatives
Research
Benny WANG
Dealing Director
(852) 2277 6720
ZHANG Jing
Research Analyst
Transportation and Automobiles
(86) 21 51699400-103
Terry LI
Research Analyst
TMT, Education and Finance
(852) 2277 6527
Sales
Eurus ZHOU
Research Analyst
Pharmaceutical and Consumer
(852) 2277 6515
Tracy KU
Research Analyst
Retail and Property
(852) 2277 6516
Aric AU Yoshikazu SHIKITA
Manager, Corporate & Institutional Sales Manager, International Sales
(852) 2277 6783 (852) 2277 6624
PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS
Total Return Recommendation Rating Remarks
> +20% Buy 1 >20% upside from the current price
+5% to +20% Accumulate 2 +5% to +20% upside from the current price
-5% to +5% Neutral 3 Trade within +/- 5% from the current price
-5% to -20% Reduce 4 -5% to -20% downside from the current price
< -20% Sell 5 -20% downside from the current price
We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock’s risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation
GENERAL DISCLAIMER
This publication is distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Limited (“PSHK”), which is licensed in Hong Kong by the Securities and Futures Commission for regulated activities, including Type 4 regulated activity (advising on securities). This publication was originally prepared by analysts from our overseas affiliates. The information contained herein is based on sources that PSHK and its affiliates believe to be accurate and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions contained in this publication are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. This material is prepared for general circulation to clients and is not intended to provide tailored investment advice and does not take into account the individual financial situation and objectives of any specific
person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of any investments or securities discussed or recommended in this report. This report is not (and should not be construed as) a solicitation to act as securities broker or dealer in any jurisdiction by any person or company that is not legally permitted to carry on such business in that jurisdiction. This research report may not be redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part or and any form or manner, without the express written consent of PSHK. Please direct any enquiries to [email protected].
Investment involves risks. For details of product risks, please view the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phiIlip.com.hk.
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