gmo food producers have kept pace with whole foods and its peers
TRANSCRIPT
Better Growth Investment: Organic or GMO Foods?
What has been the best investment in the last 10
years?
Investment comparison
Growth of U.S. organic food sales
• Totals 4% of all U.S. home food sales
• Produce (43%)
• Dairy (15%)
• Driven by organic cropland growth
Growth of U.S. organic cropland
• From 1997 to 2011…
• Pasture: 350% growth
• Cropland: 226% growth
What about GMO foods and biotech crops?
GMO market penetration
Source: USDA, International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-Biotech Applications Infographic
AgriculturalCrop
Organic % of U.S.
Production
GMO % of U.S.
Production
GMO % of Global
Production
GMO No. of Countries
Grown
Canola --- 90% 30% 4
Corn 0.3% 88% 35% 17
Cotton --- 90% 81% 15
Soybeans 0.2% 94% 81% 11
Growth of global biotech cropland
Source: International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-Biotech Applications Infographic
How do organic and GMO foods, crops compare?
Side-by-side
Organic Crops & Foods Biotech Crops & Foods*
% of U.S. home food sales 4% >88%*
U.S. cropland acreage, 2012
2.97 million acres 171.74 million acres
Contributions to U.S. GDP, 2012
$30.2 billion $125 billion
*foods containing GM ingredients
The most pivotal short-term catalyst?
International Trade & Regulations
Future GMO growth hinges on global acceptance
Source: GMOanswers
Export value of organic foods variable, but growing
Source: USDA, U.S. Department of Commerce
AgriculturalCrop
Organic Export Value, 2011
Organic ExportValue, 2012
% Change
Apples $46.2 million $99.8 million 116%
Cherries $30.6 million $6.4 million (79.1%)
Grapes $60.0 million $39.7 million (33.8%)
Pears $8.9 million $20.6 million 131%
Overall $412 million $448 million 8.7%
Organic catalysts in next 10 years?
Consumer demand for local, labeled products
Big business investments
International trade, exports
GM catalysts in next 10 years?
Population growth stressing shrinking farmland
Big business investments
Next-gen crops offer enhanced
production
Conclusions
• Both organic food and biotech crops will continue high growth for foreseeable future.
• Biotech crops and GMO foods– Positives: Next-gen biotech crops
– Negatives: High global adoption rates = saturation
• Organic crops and foods– Positives: Consumer demand, lack of regulatory
obstacles, plenty of room to grow
– Negatives: Lower yields present risk from environmental factors, farmer fallout
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