GO131:International Relations

Professor Walter HatchColby College

Ethnic and Religious Conflict

Grave Threat to Peace

Why so much local conflict now?

How to Characterize?

Revival of “Ancient Hatreds?”Natural Divisions (tribal, ethnic)

Revenge of “Bad Borders?”Unnatural Divisions (a legacy of colonialism)

Or the Exploitation of Divisions?

Babri Masjid (1992)

Case #1: Arabs and Jews

Returning to Palestine

PalestineArabs in the Ottoman Empire

Zionist dreamsEscaping pograms in Russia and Poland

Balfour Declaration (1917)The 1930s

Jewish refugeArab alarmBritish blockade

The Palestine War (1948)

End of the British Mandate

UN Partitionland grab

Deir Yassin massacre

great power politics

UN Partition Plan (1947)

Israel Holds its Own

The Birth of Israel (May 14, 1948)

Arab attacks from north, south, and eastRepelled and reversed

The Suez Crisis (1956)

Gamal Abdel NasserPresident of Egypt (1952)

Champion of Arab nationalism

Nationalizes the Suez Canal (1955)

Blockades the Gulf of Aqaba (1955)

Strategic Waterways

Israel, the UK, and France

The secret planIsrael attacks Egypt (10/29/1956)

UK and France intervene (10/30/56)

US calls for restraintUSSR supports US

Israel relinquishes its spoilsUNEF patrols

Six-day War (1967)

SyriaEl Fatah raids

Egyptexpels UNEF from Sinaiblockades Gulf of Aqaba (again)

IsraelResponds with lighting attacksOccupies key territoriesPreempts the UN

Expanded Israel

The October War (1973)

Syria and Egypt attack on Yom KippurRisk of Soviet-US proxy war

Geneva Peace Accords (12/73)UN observers in Sinai and on Golan Heights

Camp David Accord (1979)

Anwar Sadat, Jimmy Carter and Menachem Begin

From Tourist Trap to Failed State

Carving up Lebanon

Civil War (1975)Muslims vs. Christians

Syria occupies central Lebanon

Israel invades (1982)

US intervenes

Intifadeh

First Palestinian uprising (1988)Rock throwing

Economic boycott

Strikes

Oslo Peace Accord (1993)

Yitzhak Rabin, Bill Clinton, Yasir Arafat

Great Expectations

Jordan-Israel peace agreement (1995)

Syria-Israel negotiations (1999)

Barak plan (2000)“Land for Peace”

Torpedoed by Arafat

Ariel Sharon

The Second Intifadeh

Palestinians revoltSuicide bombers

Israeli reprisalsLeveling villages

New Peace Efforts

Bush’s “Road Map” (2001)

Abu Mazen as PA PM (2003)Trying to tame Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Al Aqsa Martyr’s Brigade, Hezbollah

And failing….

Terror Continues

Reem Raiyshi with her son Obida, 3, before she set off a bomb in Gaza on 1/26/04, killing herself and four Israelis.

The Fence

The Occupation Continues

Case #2: Hindus vs Moslems

Two Battles for Independence

British rule (from early 17th century)East India Company

“divide and conquer”

Fighting for sovereigntyHindus under Mahatma Gandhi

Moslems under Mohammed Ali Jinnah

Partition (1947)

Kashmir

British had installed a Hindu prince in predominantly Moslem region (1846)

During partition, Moslems revoltedNew Pakistan state supported

New Indian state opposed

War (1948-49)

A Region Divided

Pakistan’s Allies

Military regime (General Ayub Khan)Unlike India under Congress Party (Nehru)

Bandwagoning with the U.S.

Friendship with China

Kashmir War of 1965

Bloody Birth of Bangladesh

Resentment of East Pakistan1970 cyclone1971: Calls for independence

West Pakistan cracks downBengali refugees spill into India

India intervenesAligns with USSRIndira Gandhi orders a strike

Nuclear confrontation

Battle of nuclear tests (1998)

Terrorist attacks inside India

Playing nuclear chicken (2003)

Case #3: Sudan

Background

Independence from UK in 1956

Civil War for all but ten years (72-82)Muslim Arabs in the north

Christian/animist Africans in the south

Northerners control Khartoum regimeMilitary junta seized power in 1989

Allied with National Congress Party (NCP), formerly the National Islamic Front (NIF)

Islamic Law (Sharia) and Arabization

Racial Chauvinism

Child soldier in southIbrahim Omar, head of NCP

“Leave Only the Birds”

Depopulation StrategyEmptying villages in the south

Trains and horsemen

Slavery

“Buy-back” program ($50 per person)

Slavery in Sudan

Darfur

Marginalization

A region ignored

Arab militia versus the African SLAKhartoum backs the Arabs

Tens of thousands killed

1.5 million displaced

Humanitarian Crisis in Darfur

Case #4: Ivory Coast

Civil Strife

North versus SouthCitizenship and bloodlines

Defined by southern elites

Abidgan regime (Laurent Gbagbo)The South

Rebels in the North

France viewed as partisan

Blowback of Colonialism

Case #5: Bosnia (1994-5)

What does Posen say?

It’s another security dilemma