GOAL Of This PresentationGOAL Of This Presentation

Increase forecaster awareness and Increase forecaster awareness and encourage use of aircraft data in the encourage use of aircraft data in the forecast process as aircraft data will forecast process as aircraft data will continue to play an increasing role as a continue to play an increasing role as a supplemental upper air data source.supplemental upper air data source.

Airports with TAMDAR dataAirports with TAMDAR dataRadiosonde- blueTAMDAR - green

TAMDARSoundingsfill many of the gaps in thecurrent upperair network!

~ 900 soundings per day

Large hubs like MSP ~ 100 soundings/day!

A Winter Example - Recent Example Illustrating Utility A Winter Example - Recent Example Illustrating Utility of Regional Aircraft Data - March 16, 2006 Winter of Regional Aircraft Data - March 16, 2006 Winter

Storm (Very Preliminary!)Storm (Very Preliminary!)

Winter Storm Warnings for parts of SE Minnesota, SW-SE Winter Storm Warnings for parts of SE Minnesota, SW-SE Wisconsin and NE Iowa (right). Wisconsin and NE Iowa (right).

Models forecasting anywhere from .50 to 1.15 inches Models forecasting anywhere from .50 to 1.15 inches precipitation. precipitation.

Dynamics strong…but gulf moisture essentially closed off. Dynamics strong…but gulf moisture essentially closed off. Despite initial dry air mass, models suggested adequate Despite initial dry air mass, models suggested adequate moisture would become available. moisture would become available.

Winter Storm Warnings

Very PreliminaryVery Preliminary Verification Verification

In Wisconsin alone only In Wisconsin alone only 9/359/35 of the of the warned counties verified (warned counties verified (FAR 74FAR 74 %%).).

Warning Criteria Met

March 15, 2006

Dry airmass in place over central U.S.

March 16, 2006

24 hours later

System encountered deep dry airmass as it moved across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

Snowbands eroded as they moved into northeast Wisconsin

Some Initial Thoughts Following the EventSome Initial Thoughts Following the Event

Model forecast moisture and QPF Model forecast moisture and QPF overdone.overdone.

Was there a lack of forecaster SA with Was there a lack of forecaster SA with respect to the amount of moisture respect to the amount of moisture actuallyactually available to system? available to system?

Could the Winter Storm Warning FAR Could the Winter Storm Warning FAR been lower had forecasters been more been lower had forecasters been more aware of the limited moisture actually aware of the limited moisture actually available to the system?available to the system?

For More Information on TAMDAR For More Information on TAMDAR and Other Aircraft Data Sourcesand Other Aircraft Data Sources

TAMDAR Website: TAMDAR Website: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/tamdar

ReferencesReferences TAMDAR Website: TAMDAR Website: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/tamdarhttp://www.crh.noaa.gov/tamdar ERSL/GSD AMDAR Aircraft Interactive Java Website: ERSL/GSD AMDAR Aircraft Interactive Java Website: http://amdar.noaa.gov/java/http://amdar.noaa.gov/java/ Bedka, S.T., et al., 2006: Bedka, S.T., et al., 2006: TAMDAR Thermodynamic and Dynamic State Validation Using TAMDAR Thermodynamic and Dynamic State Validation Using

Rawindsonde Data from TAVERawindsonde Data from TAVE. Extended Abstracts, 10. Extended Abstracts, 10thth AMS IOAS-AOLS, Atlanta, GA, Amer. AMS IOAS-AOLS, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Poster 2.12Meteor. Soc., Poster 2.12

Petersen, R.A. and W.R. Moninger, 2006: Petersen, R.A. and W.R. Moninger, 2006: Assessing Two Different Commercial Aircraft-based Assessing Two Different Commercial Aircraft-based Sensing SystemsSensing Systems. Extended Abstracts, 10. Extended Abstracts, 10thth AMS IOAS-AOLS, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., AMS IOAS-AOLS, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Poster 2.8Poster 2.8

Moninger, W.A., et al., 2006: Moninger, W.A., et al., 2006: Automated Weather Reports from Aircraft: TAMDAR and the U.S. Automated Weather Reports from Aircraft: TAMDAR and the U.S. AMDAR FleetAMDAR Fleet. Extended Abstracts, 12. Extended Abstracts, 12thth Conf on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, Conf on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 4.2.Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 4.2.

Brusky, E.S. and P.G. Kurimski, 2006: Brusky, E.S. and P.G. Kurimski, 2006: The Utility of TAMDAR Regional Aircraft Sounding Data in The Utility of TAMDAR Regional Aircraft Sounding Data in Short-Term Convective ForecastingShort-Term Convective Forecasting . Extended Abstracts, 10. Extended Abstracts, 10thth AMS IOAS-AOLS, Atlanta, GA, AMS IOAS-AOLS, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 9.5.Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 9.5.

Brusky E.S., S.P. Luchs and R.A. Petersen, 2006: Brusky E.S., S.P. Luchs and R.A. Petersen, 2006: A Preliminary Comparison of TAMDAR Aircraft A Preliminary Comparison of TAMDAR Aircraft and NWS Radiosonde Dataand NWS Radiosonde Data. 10. 10thth AMS IOAS-AOLS, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Poster 2.10. AMS IOAS-AOLS, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Poster 2.10.

Davies, J.M., 2005: Tornadoes Associated with Small SRH or High LCL Environments. 4th Annual Southeast Severe Storms Symposium, March 2005.