goals in tier 1 european football: are they all equal?

7/28/2019 Goals in Tier 1 European Football: Are they all Equal?

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Goals in Tier 1 European

Football: Are they all Equal?

Dr. Garry Gelade

Business Analytic Ltd

[email protected]

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Problem of Context All performance is

performance in a context

Failing to account for theeffects of context leads tobiased evaluations ofindividual ability

EPL recruit 50% of playersfrom outside the UK

60+ different nationalities

How do we evaluate playerswho have not played in theEPL?

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Recruitment Decisions

2004 - Risky Decision 2012 - No Brainer

Age 21 15 Goals 61 Appearances (Feyenoord) Goals/90 0.37

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2004 2012

Age 29 96 Goals 194 Appearances (Arsenal) Goals/90 0.67


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Problem

Understand the different contexts in Europeanfirst tier football.

Do we have a level-playing field?

Is it easier to score in some leagues than others?

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Sources of Information

Conventional wisdom (Guru/expert)

Official rankings

Historical records

Direct observation

Analytics

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Conventional Wisdom

[Damian] Comolli worked on his own rule ofthumb ....

.... with the exception of Ruud van Nistelrooy,strikers imported from Holland only score around

a third of the goals in the Premier League. Daily Mail, 17 September 2012

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Conventional Wisdom

Garry Gelades Rule of Thumb ....

.... Dont trust anyone elses Rule of Thumb.

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Official Rankings

Club coefficients based on the results of all Europeanclubs in UEFA club competition.

Increasing number of points awarded for each stagereached.

Points aggregated over past five seasons.

Clubs aggregated by country.

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Europa

League

First qualifying round elimination 0.25 points

Group stage win 2.0 points

...etc ....

Champions

League

First qualifying round elimination 0.5 points

Group stage participation 4.0 points

..etc ....


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UEFA Association Rankings

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Historical: Erd EPL Transfers

Eredivisie PremiershipPlayer Productivity Team Productivity

Bryan Ruiz 0.54 Fulham 0.11

Suarez 0.75 Liverpool 0.47

Van Persie 0.23 Arsenal 0.52Kluivert 0.49 Newcastle 0.24

Van Nistelrooy 0.77 Man United 0.63

Kezman 0.86 Chelsea 0.16

Kuyt 0.55 LIverpool 0.25

Overmars 0.31 Arsenal 0.25

Bergkamp 0.56 Arsenal 0.28

Alves Martins 1.15 Middlesboro 0.24

Ryan Babel 0.19 Liverpool 0.15

Arjen Robben 0.24 Chelsea 0.22

van der Vart 0.44 Spurs 0.38

Collins John 0.28 Fulham 0.21

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Average ProductivityErd = 0.53 gmEPL = 0.33 gm


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Historical: Erd

EPL Transfers

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European connections

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Barcelona RealMadrid

Man.United

Stoke Fulham

Bilbao Celta Vigo

Chelsea

Spain

England


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DataCompetition No.

Matches

English Premiership 2,280

Dutch Eredivisie 1,836

Italian Serie A 2,280

German Bundesliga 1,836

Spanish La Liga 2,242

French Ligue 1 2,280

Champions/Europa League 537

Seasons 2006/7 2011/12171 teams

13,291 matches


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Model

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AWAYHOMEHOMEStrengthDefensive,StrengthAttackingGoals

HOMEAWAYAWAYStrengthDefensive,StrengthAttackingGoals

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Model

Diagonally inflated

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Bivariate Poisson

Goals are Events

Goals For andGoals Against

More draws


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Modelling process

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ModelData

Attacking &

Defensive strengthsfor each team

Analyse Simulate

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Attacking Strength by

Country

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Team AttackingStrength

Barcelona .85Real Madrid .82Manchester United .67Arsenal .58Chelsea .58Bayern Munich .53Internazionale .45Werder Bremen .44Atltico de Madrid .43Liverpool .43

Top Ten Attacks


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Defensive Strength by

Country

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Top Ten Defences

Team DefensiveStrength

Manchester United .76Barcelona .71Chelsea .68Liverpool .62Real Madrid .47Milan .44Arsenal .42Everton .42Bayern Munich .39Internazionale .37

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Overall Team Strength by

Country

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Top Ten Teams

Team StrengthBarcelona 2.26

Real Madrid 2.01

Manchester United 1.81

Chelsea 1.56

Arsenal 1.38

Bayern Munich 1.25

Liverpool 1.22

Internazionale 1.08

Milan 1.04

Manchester City .95

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Validation check

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Correlation=.83

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RESULTS

Use Attack & Defensive Strengths to calculate number ofgoals scored by the average Dutch team

a) Playing in the Erd B) Playing in the Premiership

17 Goals in Erd == 10 Goals in EPL

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Eredivisie Premiership

Goals scored per match 1.35 0.80

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Comparison with HistoricalsTeam Strength Analytics Historical Data (Individuals)

Average Dutch Team

10 goals in EPL 17 in Erd

Average French Team in France: 1.07 goals

Average French Team in the Premiership: 0.95goals

10 goals in PL == 11.3 in France

10 goals in EPL 16 in Erd

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Goalsscored

1.35 0.80


Goals/Match

0.53 0.33

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Is RvP an outlier?

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0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Erd 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13

Goals/90

Season

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Thanks for Listening.

Any questions Ill be around to

chat.

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For further information or to discuss your requirements, please

contact Garry [email protected]

Garrys Linkedin profile:

http://www.linkedin.com/pub/garry-gelade/2/482/44b
mailto:[email protected]://www.linkedin.com/pub/garry-gelade/2/482/44bhttp://www.linkedin.com/pub/garry-gelade/2/482/44bhttp://www.linkedin.com/pub/garry-gelade/2/482/44bhttp://www.linkedin.com/pub/garry-gelade/2/482/44bmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]

goals in tier 1 european football: are they all equal?

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