By Dr. Nandkumar M. KamatLecturer, Goa University

Member, state level steering committee (SLSC), Ministry of Urban development, JNNURM,

Govt. of India, 2008

Problems of Goa’s unsustainable urbanisation and the future threat from sea level rise

Area shaded in Red shows the focus of urbanisation-at present and for future

Population Projection Talukawise Assignment

North Goa

1981 (%)

1986 (%)

1991 (%)

1996 (%)

2001 (%)

2006 (%)

2011(%)

Tiswadi 131941(13.1)

139033 (12.8)

146443 (12.5)

155026 (12.2)

157948 (11.8)

175517 (11.7)

181617 (11.0)

Bardez 153913 (15.3)

170766 (15.7)

189383 (16.2)

211089 (16.7)

226447 (16.8)

264945 (17.6)

288656 (17.5)

Pernem 59352(5.9)

62927 (5.8)

66689 (5.7)

71032 (5.6)

72816 (5.4)

81414 (5.4)

84761 (5.1)

Bicholim 74089 (7.4)

79156 (7.3)

84532(7.2)

90731(7.2)

93723(7.0)

105594(7.0)

110780(6.7)

Satari 40838(4.1)

44984(4.1)

49530(4.2)

54810(4.3)

58376(4.3)

67810(4.5)

73348(4.4)

Ponda 107888(10.7)

117644(10.8)

128227(11.0)

140467(11.1)

148097(11.0)

170296(11.3)

182349(11.1)

Sub Total

568021(56.4)

614511(56.6)

664804(56.8)

723155(57.1)

757407(56.4)

865576(57.5)

921511(56.9)

Population Projection Talukawise Assignment

North Goa

1981 (%)

1986 (%)

1991 (%)

1996 (%)

2001 (%)

2006 (%)

2011(%)

Tiswadi 131941(13.1)

139033 (12.8)

146443 (12.5)

155026 (12.2)

157948 (11.8)

175517 (11.7)

181617 (11.0)

Bardez 153913 (15.3)

170766 (15.7)

189383 (16.2)

211089 (16.7)

226447 (16.8)

264945 (17.6)

288656 (17.5)

Pernem 59352(5.9)

62927 (5.8)

66689 (5.7)

71032 (5.6)

72816 (5.4)

81414 (5.4)

84761 (5.1)

Bicholim 74089 (7.4)

79156 (7.3)

84532(7.2)

90731(7.2)

93723(7.0)

105594(7.0)

110780(6.7)

Satari 40838(4.1)

44984(4.1)

49530(4.2)

54810(4.3)

58376(4.3)

67810(4.5)

73348(4.4)

Ponda 107888(10.7)

117644(10.8)

128227(11.0)

140467(11.1)

148097(11.0)

170296(11.3)

182349(11.1)

Sub Total

568021(56.4)

614511(56.6)

664804(56.8)

723155(57.1)

757407(56.4)

865576(57.5)

921511(56.9)

Population Projection Talukawise Assignment

South Goa 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011Mormugao

98541(8.8)

108994(10.0)

120503(10.3)

133901(10.6)

148790(11.1)

167027(11.1)

195857(11.9)

Salcete 193755(19.2)

206457(19.0)

219897(18.8)

235393(18.6)

251988(18.7)

272512(18.1)

307844(18.7)

Quepem 55593(5.5)

59902(5.5)

64518(5.5)

69839(5.5)

75602(5.6)

82678(5.5)

94446(5.7)

Sanguem 55904(5.5)

57616(5.3)

59355(5.1)

61455(4.8)

63630(4.7)

66557(4.4)

72723(4.4)

Canacona 35935(3.6)

38259(3.5)

40716(3.5)

43549(3.4)

46581(3.5)

50333(3.3)

56811(3.4)

Sub Total 439728(43.6)

471229(43.4)

504989(43.2)

544138(42.9)

586592(43.6)

639107(42.5)

727681(44.1)

Total 1007749

(100)

10857399(100)

1169793(100)

1267293(100)

1343998(100)

1504682

(100)

1649192(100)

Note : Mid-point growth rate of 1.558 during the decade (1986-1996) is taken

Population ProjectionUrban-Rural Components of

Population• The decadal growth rate of urban

population during (1981-1991) has been 48.63%Year  Urban Component

(% of Total Population)

Urban Population

1981 32.03 322782

1991 41.01 479732

2001 53.04 728222

2011 65.08 1073294

Population ProjectionRural-Urban Composition

Taluka Urban Population

(2011)

Rural Population (2011)

Population of Taluka at 2011

North Goa

Tiswadi 126705 (69.8) 54912 (30.2) 181617Bardez 224682 (77.8) 63974 (22.2) 288656Pernem 45173 (53.3) 39588 (46.7) 84761Bicholim 45275 (40.9) 65505 (59.1) 110780Satari 24975 (34.1) 48373 (65.9) 73348Ponda 127951 (70.2) 54398 (29.8) 182349Total 594761 (64.6) 326750 (35.4) 921511South Goa

Marmugao 184696 (94.3) 11161 (15.7) 195857Salcete 178749 (58.1) 129095 (41.9) 307844Quepem 59179 (62.6) 35267 (37.4) 94446Sanguem 14571 (20.0) 58152 (80.0) 72723Canacona 17463 (30.7) 39348 (69.3) 56811Total 454658 (62.5) 273023 (37.5) 727681Total Goa 1049419 (63.6) 599773 (36.4) 1649192

Urbanization from spaceSatellite images of Goa’s urban

areas and the problem spots

Mapusa, Pernem, Siolim, Panaji, Porvorim, Bicholim, Ponda,

Marmagoa-Vasco, Sanquelim, Margao and Salcete etc.

Margao’s urban sprawl

Central Margao

Salcete ubanisation

Quepem

Bicholim

Bicholim bus stand near the river

Sanquelim town and outskirts

Sanquelim topohydrography

Image mosaic of Bardez coastline-dense settlements

THREATS TO URABNISATION

INDIA’S COASTAL CITIES ARE IN DANGER

Global warming, sea level rise and coastal urban centres:- a quick tour of the vulnerable

areas

We can not wait for the Indian version

World is reacting but We are slow learners…

• Latur and Bhuj earthquakes• Orissa supercyclone• Asian Tsunami• The deluge in Ahmedabad and Mumbai

after record rains• Probably the kicking action by nature

prompted the lawmakers to respond with a far reaching legislative remedy

Human exposure to sea-level rise is significant and growing

• Global-mean sea level rose at least 10 cm during the 20th Century

• This rise is expected to continue • Likely to accelerate due to human-induced warming

during the 21st Century.• Coastal zones in world account for 25% of

population• Coastal population are increasing due to migrations• The highest population density occur seaward across

the near-coastal zone, below 20 m elevation ( many coastal cities and towns in India fall in this category)

• Urbanisation is an important trend and 20 large coastal cities (>8 million people) are projected for 2010, together with many more smaller cities and towns clustered close to the coastline

Global-mean sea-level rise will resultin a range of impacts

• increased flood risk and submergence

• salinisation of surface and ground waters and morphological change,

• such as erosion and wetland loss

The natural-system effects of sea-level rise have a range of potential socio-economic

impacts

Increased loss of property and coastal habitats Increased flood risk and potential loss of life Damage to coastal protection works and other infrastructure

Loss of renewable and subsistence resources Loss of tourism, recreation, and transportation functions Loss of non-monetary cultural resources and values Impacts on agriculture and aquaculture through decline in soil and water quality

Coastal cities are always vulnerable to climate changes

Most of the people residing in coastal zones are directly dependent on natural resource bases of coastal ecosystemsAny global warming-induced climatic change such as

increase in sea surface temperature, change in frequency, intensity or tracks of

cyclones, sea level rise may aggravate the potential risks to coastal zones

UNEP report (1989) has identified India as one amongst 27 countries which are most vulnerable to the

impacts ofglobal warming related accelerated

sea level rise

Why India’s coastline is vulnerable to SLR?

• Large low-lying coastal areas such as Kutch, Saurashtra, parts of Konkan, Goa, Malabar, regions near river deltas

• unsustainable settlements• high population density • high settlement density• Increased interference in natural defense

barriers (sand dunes, mangroves, wetlands )

The worst affected regions from physical point of view

• Land area loss >Gujarat and West Bengal

• Highest land area loss> Goa-4-5% of total area

• Impact on Population >West Bengal, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu (on account of high population density in coastal cities)

The vulnerabilty of area and population of coastal states to SLR

The consequences of the deluge…• India’s coastal states would lose about 6000 sq.

kms. area• About 7-8 million people would be affected • Most vulnerable areas on west coast> Kutch,

Mumbai, coastal Goa, South Kerala.• On east coast> urban centres near deltas of river

Ganges (West Bengal), Cauvery (Tamil Nadu), Krishna and Godawari (Andhra Pradesh), Mahanadi (Orissa)

• Islands of Lakshadweep archipelago would be submerged

Circles denote vulnerable coastal areas

East-West geomorphological profile of India’s coasts

The east coast does not have solid defenses

A quick tour of some vulnerable cities from

Gujarat to West Bengal

Points to remember….as you watch these images…

• Most of the cities do not have the topography in their favour to withstand SLR

• Mean elevation ranges from 0- 20 metres with heavily built coastal areas just within 1-7 m above sea level

• The first impact of SLR would be felt by the low lying areas

Dwaraka-Gujarat-may again be swallowed by sea

Dwaraka-This area is just a few met. above sea level…

It would be a hopeless situation for Gandhiji’s Porbander too…

Porbander is encroaching on its’ beaches…and may pay a price after SLR

Veraval the ancient port is threatened by SLR

But the builders won’t stop to use every inch of land…

Close to Veraval is famous Somnath temple-it may be isolated

Surat is heavily built in low lying estuarine areas of Narmada

On central west coast ,time is running out for such areas of Mumbai

Low lying areas of Mumbai are vulnerable to SLR

What would be the fate of these Mumbai slums when the sea moves in here?

Residents from such slums in Mumbai need to be urgently rehabilitated to higher grounds

Alibag is built just 2-7 m above sea level and may face a deluge..

Small coastal towns in Konkan like Malvan are also vulnerable

Panaji may loose the densely populated low lying areas to the sea

Densely populated Salcete coast would be submerged

Naval base may not be able to save coastal parts of Karwar

Unsustainable growth of Mangalore spells dooms after SLR

Coastal parts of Mangalore are vulnerable to SLR

Most of Kochi-Cochin is just 5-8 m above sea level-densely settled…

Overbuilt Chennai may be vulnerable to SLR

SLR may impact coastal wetlands and backwaters like Pulicat

The coastal parts of Vizag may face the brunt of SLR

Kolkata with many low lying areas needs to wake up to SLR challenge…

No future for Diamond harbour after SLR!

Tasks ahead…

• How coastal urban India would plan for the worst case scenarios?.

• What is the present status of planning and preparedness and what are the possibilities for ensuring sustainable urbanization and disaster mitigation?.

• How much time we have before the disaster strikes?.

• What role the government, the media, the civil society could play?.

A judicious and effective use of the disaster management bill,

2005 is necessary for research in vulnerability studies, capacity building, new land use policies

etc.

"disaster management" means a continuous and integrated process of planning, organising, coordinating

and implementing measures which are necessaryor expedient for

(i) prevention of danger or threat of any disaster;(ii) mitigation or reduction of risk of any disaster or its severity orconsequences;(iii) capacity-building;(iv) preparedness to deal with any disaster;(v) prompt response to any threatening disaster situation or disaster;(vi) assessing the severity or magnitude of effects of any disaster;(vii) evacuation, rescue and relief;(viii) rehabilitation and reconstruction;

References• Kamat, N. (2001). Urbanization in

Goa: the past 2000 years: a short review, Govapuri, April-June 2001, pp.12-21

• Census of India reports, 1971 to 2001• Govt. of Goa, economic survey-2001

to 2007• Google earth images form

earth.google.com• Regional plan, Goa, 2001, 2011• United nations reports and research

papers

Dhananyavad

Thank you