goes-r support to future climate monitoring needs mitch goldberg chief, satellite meteorology and...
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GOES-R Support to Future ClimateMonitoring NeedsMitch GoldbergChief, Satellite Meteorology and Climatology DivisionOffice of Research and ApplicationsNOAA/NESDIS
GOES-R Users ConferenceMay 12, 2004
TopicsImportance of climate and climate goalsUS Climate Change Science ProgramNOAA strategic plan for climateImportant climate variablesHow GOES-R will complement NPOESSScientific Data Stewardship
Why is Climate ImportantUp to 40% of nations $10 trillion economy affected by weather and climateTotal U.S. economic impacts of the 1997-1998 El Nino were estimated to be on the order of $25 billionUS Gross Domestic Product may reduce by about 1% by 2100 due to projections of global warming
What are Major Goals in Climate?Improve predictions of climate variability and changeENSO forecastsGlobal sea levelDecadal climate forecastsImprove predictions of recovery of the stratospheric ozone layerImprove predictions of CO2 out to 100 yearsDevelop credible ecological forecasts due to global climate change
What are Major Goals in Climate? (cont.)How will water cycle dynamics change in the future?Improve seasonal forecasts of precipitationImprove long range water cycle prediction for planning energy needsBetter understand and quantify the role of aerosols.
US Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)Vision: A nation and the global community empowered with the science-based knowledge to manage the risks and opportunities of change in the climate and related environmental systems
CCSP GoalsImprove knowledge of the Earths past and present climate and understanding of the causes of observed variability and change
Improve quantification of forces that control climate
Reduce uncertainty in climate projections
Understand sensitivity and adaptability of ecosystems and humans to climate
Explore uses and identify limits of knowledge to manage risks and opportunities of climate variability and change
CCSP Core ApproachesScientific researchObservationsDecision supportCommunications
NOAA Strategic Plan: ClimateBuild an end-to-end system of integrated global observations of key atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial variables
Enhance scientific understanding of past climate variations and present atmospheric, oceanic, and landsurface processes that influence climate
Apply this improved understanding to create more reliable climate predictions on all time scales
Establish service delivery methods that continuously assess and respond to user needs with the most recent, reliable information possible.
Climate Variables and their ImportanceForcing: external variables that control climateResponse: variables that respond to climate forcingFeedback: variables that respond to climate forcing and modify the forcing
Climate Variables and their Importance (cont.)Forcing: solar irradiance, CO2, CH4, O3, N2O, aerosolsResponse: temperature, winds, precipitation, sea levelFeedback: water vapor, clouds, snow/ice cover, vegetation, ocean color, earth radiation budgetSea Level Rise (Cheney, 2004)
Indicators of a warming climateIncrease in temperature, decrease in the diurnal temperature rangeMore intense precipitation eventsIncrease of summer droughtsIncrease in tropical cyclone intensitiesIntensified droughts and floods associated with El NinoIncrease of sea level
GOES-R High Quality Observations will Complement NPOESS by :Resolving the diurnal cycle and its long-term changesDiurnal cycle and the seasonal cycle are the two largest climatic variationsVariables with large diurnal variations include hydrological variables, ERB, and surface temperatureProviding more opportunities each day to obtain visible and infrared observations that are not degraded by cloud coverMonitoring rapidly changing and rare climate phenomena (e.g., precipitation occurs only about 20% of the time)Serving as a calibration anchor for all NPOESS satellites
Current and Past GOES Satellites are Major Contributors to World Climate Research Programs:International Satellite Cloud Climatology ProjectGlobal Precipitation Climatology ProjectSurface Radiation Budget Climatology Project
Desired characteristics of an observing system (After G. Stephens, 2003)
Scientific Data Stewardship for ClimateThe goal is to ensure that satellite observations and products are processed and used in a manner that is scientifically defensible, not only for real-time assessments and predictions of climate, but for retrospective analyses, re-analyses, and reprocessing efforts.
Primary functions include:
Careful monitoring of observing system performance
Generation of climate data records
CDRs provide information to: monitor change (climate variability and trends) of the Earths climate. predict change especially SI forecasts input to model re-analyses (note: reanalysis is also a CDR) validate climate prediction models and model reanalyses understand processes ( water vapor-cloud-radiation feedback)
In preparation of this new program, NESDIS is developing a plan for generating CDRs from NOAA operational satellites, which will be reviewed by the National Academies.
National Academy interim report to NESDIS providing general guidance on satellite-based CDR program.
Overarching recommendation: NOAA to develop CDR program, apply new approaches to generate and manage satellite CDRs, develop new community relationships and ensure long-term consistency and continuity for a satellite CDR program
Program plan from NESDIS due 8/04, and will be reviewed by Academy (after approval by senior NESDIS mgt)Academy Studywww.nap.edu
What is a CDR?A time series of measurements of sufficient length, consistency, and continuity to determine climate variability and change
Fundamental CDRs calibrated and quality-controlled sensor data that have been improved over time.
Thematic CDRs geophysical parameters derived from the FCDRs.
Creating Quality Climate Data Records Requires:Lowest level of data (level 1) be preserved with complete documentation and metadata, includes data that records the satellite and instrument performance
Observing performance monitoring to minimize spatial and temporal biasesTools to detect and account for changes in the observing system
Science team guidance and participation
Near Real-Time CDR GenerationTight connection between algorithm developer and CDR generator (may be same group)Strong calibration/validation programResearch with the data set as part of the programCollaboration with user communities (e.g., diagnosticians, modelers) to obtain feedback
Creating Quality Climate Data Records Requires (cont):Re-processingAn improved algorithm is developedNew information on an instrumentAn error is discovered in the processing system
Research and ApplicationDevelopment of climate quality algorithmsAnalysis of time series to detect emerging trendsJoint studies with climate modeling communityProduction of periodic assessments for decision makers, other climate researchers and the public
Data RequirementsEnd-to-end data managementNear real-time access to data (including raw radiances)Development of community consensus algorithms and data standardsComplete archiving: data, meta data, source code, ancillary data, etc.Free and open sharing and exchange of climate dataNationally and internationally
Functional Areas for CDR SystemObserving system performance monitoringDetect problems earlyProduction of near real-time CDRsMonitor current state of climate system and short -term variationsReprocessing of CDRs for long-term recordsConsistent, seamless, high quality time series with minimized biasClimate research and applicationsJoint activities with external communityArchive and distributionIncludes output of above activities, metadata, and timely distribution
SummaryGOES-R will have a major contribution to monitoring, understanding and predicting climate change and variability.Monitor and understand diurnal changesIntercalibrate polar-orbitting satellites
Long-term stability of the sensors is very important
Production of climate data records are different from environmental data records, so a program supporting the development of CDRs is needed.
VisionA climate science community empowered with the high quality satellite-based climate data records needed to define global climate variations and change
Traits: Stability & Bias (After Stephens, 2003)
Traits: Accuracy, precision and Uncertainty (After Stephens, 2003)
Traits: Stability & bias (After Stephens, 2003)
ECMWF Meeting, Reading UKThe content on this chart covers only portions of where do we want to go?N:\Briefings\International\ECMWF June 22 2001\ECMWF Jun_22_2001.ppt