Go backwardto move forward!

MSc Andrea MorettoKeen on

Renewablesand

Sustainable Mobility

2014

Once upon a time

100% renewable

Non portable

AD3000 BC 2000 AD

Watermill

Windmill

Muscle power

Wood

2014 Andrea Moretto

The Industrial Revolution

The Industrial Revolution was “the transition to new manufacturing processes in the period from about 1760 to sometime between 1820 and 1840”

= GROWING POWER DEMAND

2014 Andrea Moretto

XX century

Non renewablePortable

AD3000 BC 2000 AD

2014 Andrea Moretto

Uses of petroleum

GASOLINE: Is the most commonly used product for day to day transportation needsDIESEL FUEL: used in medium- and heavy-duty vehicles BUNKER FUEL: used to power ships.JET FUEL: the standard type of jet fuel, with addittives

HEATING OIL: used to fuel furnaces or boilers

PLASTICS: all plastic, unless it is “bio plastic”, is made from petrochemicalsDETERGENT: derived from the petrochemical glycerinSYNTHETIC RUBBER: used for car tires and rubber soles on shoesSYNTHETIC FIBERS: polyester, nylon, and acrylic are all derived from petrochemicalsFERTILIZERS & PESTICIDES: major commercial fertilizers are ammonia based, made from natural gas, and most commercial pesticides come from oilPAINT: plastic and oil based paints, as well as paint additives, are manufactured from petrochemicals.PHOTOGRAPHIC FILM: petrochemical ethylene is what is used in photographic filmFOOD ADDITIVES: the shelf life of canned foods can be increased by food additivesMAKE UP: make-up’s that contain oils, perfumes, waxes and colorMEDICINE: acetylsalicylic acid (ASA), the active ingredient in many pain reliever medicinesCANDLES: wax is a raw petroleum product

Green House Green house is a good idea

(earth avg surface T from -18°C to +14°C) Issue is the anthropic addition to normal

cycles, primarily due to fossil fuels combustion (CO2)

CO2 peak level of last 400.000 years was 300 ppm; in 60 years this grew to ~400 ppm

Source: 2014, http://climate.nasa.gov/key_indicators

GH consequences

Source: 2014, http://climate.nasa.gov/key_indicators

Global warming

Artic ice thinning Sea level increase

Global Climate Change: Future Trends

Phenomena Likelihood of trend

Contraction of snow cover areas, increased thaw in permafrost regions, decrease in sea ice extent

Virtually certain

Increased frequency of hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation

Very likely to occur

Increase in tropical cyclone intensity Likely to occur

Precipitation increases in high latitudes Very likely to occur

Precipitation decreases in subtropical land regions

Very likely to occur

Decreased water resources in many semi-arid areas, including western U.S. and Mediterranean basin

High confidence

Source: Summary for Policymakers, IPCC Synthesis report, November 2007http://www.ipcc.ch/

Definitions of likelihood ranges used to express the assessed probability of occurrence:

• virtually certain >99%• very likely >90%• likely >66%

“At the end of the last ice age, when the Northeast United States was covered by more than 900 m of ice, average temperatures were only 5÷9 °C cooler than today”

Philippines 2013

Sardinia 2013

Bavaria 2013«In nature, nothing is created,

nothing is destroyed, everything is transformed»

Antoine Lavoisier

“Satellite observations suggest a

1 °C temperature increase means a 6% increase in both atmospheric water vapor & rainfall/evaporation rates”

http://eo.ucar.edu/staff/rrussell/beta/evaporation_rate/evaporation_rate.html

Why PV is great!~17x 1GW nuclear power plants @ 2013

1. > 130 GWp in operation worldwide, proven viable2. 100% free and renewable source3. non monopolistic-distributed generation4. solid state technology based, subject to continous

performance improvements and cost decrease5. close to end-user with low grid delivery losses6. safe, no relevant by-products7. durable, low maintenance, static components (>25y)8. ~100% fully recyclable [Si, Al, Ag, Cu, EVA]9. short energy payback (< 2 years)10. 5x Italian surface as PV would fulfill word’s 2050 electric

energy demands

PV limitations

1. non adjustable (need external accumulation)

2. not predictable (subject to sun availability)

Batteries (chemical/phisical)

Water resevoirs

Electricity for lighting accounts for ~15 % of global power consumption and 5 % of worldwide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.If a global transition to efficient lighting occurred, these emissions could be reduced by over one-third.

Lighting and global electricity consumption

Source: http://www.enlighten-initiative.org/

55

Transportation energy demands

Source: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY OUTLOOK 2013, 25 July 2013

EIA, July 2013:“world energy consumption to grow 56% 2010-2040,CO2 up 46%;use of liquid fuels in transportation up 38%”

<500M people

~1500M people

~1500M people

Population

MbpdMillion barrels per day

2010 A 2040 F 30y variation

USA 18 899 18 635 -1,4 %

China 9 330 19 788 +112,1 %

India 3 225 8 223 +155,0 %

Liquid fuel demands

Source: IEO2013-World liquids consumption by region, Reference case data table

Energy ƞ for transportation purposes

Max well-to-wheel efficiency ~35% for Otto and 50% for DieselActual efficiency 20-40% depending on fuel and technology

Max well-to-wheel efficiency >90%Current efficiency 75-80% (inc. battery rech.) up to 88% with regenerative breaking

ICE

BEV

Final energy balance(best case)

As utility companies build more efficient power plants and bring more renew. online, the primary-to-wheel efficiency will significantly increase.

100 33÷60

100

100

∞

30÷40-

29÷53

88

Primary Secondary Utilized

Oil prices +50%People +30% vs 2010

People in cities +40% vs 2010

Energy needs 3x vs 2010

Electricity needs 9x vs 2010

> 1/3 will be BE Vehicles

> 40% of energy from RENEWABLES

BATTERY costs -70%

2050 will be...

Source: National Geographic Energy Challenge 2013

2050 energy mix?

#1 !

2x

½ x HC

1x 3x

Source: National Geographic Energy Challenge 2013