gold charts and technical analysis 26 sep 2011

8/4/2019 Gold Charts and Technical Analysis 26 Sep 2011

1/7

26 SEP 2011

GOLD UPDATE

Many charts this weekend, much to consider because of last week's move.

There is a fairly tight grouping of support that I'll show first:

Previous charts have shown an increasing parabolic rise in supporting trend-

lines. The foremost line is one to watch, which is near 1578 this week


2/7

: Gold has also produced a fairly consistent stair step in price from whichinvestors have risked 2-3% above the previous step. Another test of the last

step is likely underway. If investors are still in the mood to buy, they should be

willing to risk another 1-3% above the previous step, providing a risk window of

1575 t o 1622:


3/7

I have shown the long standing support at the 150DMA for the past couple

years, which has now moved steadily upward to a support level of 1577:

Looking at the MT EW count Wave (4)green can be counted as an irregular

expanded flat which is filling in most of the 12-15% correction window for this

degree of correction, same for wave(2) green. The bottom of the 15% range is

at 16 25 ish


4/7

There is also a serious danger to further MT upside that could become obvious

next week. If the Month of September closes below the Opening price in August

(1614.76), a very bearish Outside Key Reversal (OKR) will be printed. The same

occurred in 2008 which was followed by a 34% major correction for 7 months

from the 1032 top in March 2008. Such a move would be a major sell signal for

many investors. An intra-month fall through 1614.76 is acceptable this week,but the month MUST close above 1614.76, friday the 30th to avoid this bearish

signal. Here is the chart:


5/7

The action on Friday did see an end of day bounce after filling in a very thinly

traded area between between 1632 and 1638, then finished the day back

above the sloping trend-line connecting the previous 2 ST bottoms. This shows

that there is some degree of buying interest at these levels

Also, Friday closed the day about $55 below the lower Bollinger Band (BB). This was the

second day of closing below the band. One more day is possible on Monday, then chances

are very good that price will rise back into the BBs again for at least a ST bounce. The

3/10/20 clearly in a bearish alignment and will remain that way with daily closes below the

10EMA (currently 1770):


6/7

A weekly time fibo points to next week as a possible bottom. This would

coincide with options expiry, futures expiry, a new moon and a minor Bradley

turn date on the 26th:


7/7

The daily time fibo also shows a potential turn early this week. A dead cat

bounce as a minimum. Daily fibo turns are given +/ - 1 day of window, end of

day Monday the 26th should close the window:

In A Nut Shell:

I suspect that Gold will see a bounce early next week back up into the BBs

1700ish from a support zone of 1614 to 1643. Then a retest of those lows

looks possible in the first or second week of October. A group of significant

support exists between 1575 and 1590. If this zone of support is broken below

1575, then a major top has likely formed, one which may take several months

for PoG to surmount after dropping even further (1200s would be possible).

This would also kill the MT EW count and prospects of a major parabolic run intothe first quarter of 2 012.

DISCLAIMER: CHARTS AND OPINION HERE IS FOREDUCATION AND NOT FOR TRADING, FOR

DETAILD DICLAIMER VISIT CHIEFSFORUM

gold charts and technical analysis 26 sep 2011

Documents