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GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS REPORT

MAY 31, 2017

PREPARED FOR:

Goochland County Public Schools

PO Box 169

Goochland, VA 23063

T 804.556.5630

PREPARED BY:

Cooperative Strategies

3325 Hilliard Rome Road

Hilliard, OH 43026

T 614.798.8828

DRAFT

Table of Contents

Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................................................... 2

Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................... 3

Enrollment Projection Methodology ......................................................................................................... 5

U.S. Census .................................................................................................................................................... 8

General Demographics ................................................................................................................................ 9

Housing Data ................................................................................................................................................ 11

Live Birth Data .............................................................................................................................................. 12

Survival Ratios .............................................................................................................................................. 13

Historical Enrollment ................................................................................................................................... 14

Projected Enrollment .................................................................................................................................... 16

Enrollment by School ................................................................................................................................... 23

Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................................... 29

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

On behalf of Cooperative Strategies, we would like to extend our appreciation to the

Goochland County Public Schools for the opportunity to assist them in developing this

Enrollment Projections Report. As a planning team, we hope that this document will serve the

Goochland County Public Schools for years to come.

COOPERATIVE STRATEGIES

Tracy Richter, President

Ann Hoffsis, REFP, Director of Enrollment Projection Services

Matt Sachs, GIS Analyst

3325 Hilliard Rome Road

Hilliard, OH 43026

P. 614-798-8828

www.coopstrategies.com

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The enrollment projections for the Goochland County Public Schools included

in this report were developed using the cohort survival methodology and

Cooperative Strategies’ custom enrollment projection software, S.T.E.P.

[Student Trends & Enrollment Projections]. This custom software was

developed in collaboration with The Ohio State University and is based on

industry best practices as well as the national experience Cooperative

Strategies has with schools, school districts, and state agencies.

The projections presented in this report are meant to serve as a planning tool for the future,

and represent the most likely direction of the Division. Enrollment projections were

developed by analyzing the following data:

• Live birth data

• Historical enrollment by school, by grade

• Census data

• Building permits

The Goochland County Public Schools’ enrollment has increased by 183 students since the

2007-08 school year. Based on the cohort survival methodology, enrollment is projected to

increase over the next ten years.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Historical & Projected Enrollment - Goochland County Public Schools

Historical Projected - Moderate/Recommended Projected - Low Projected - High

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As with any projection, the Division should pay close attention to the variables associated with

determining enrollment projections discussed in this document. Any one or more of these

factors can increase or decrease enrollment within the Goochland County Public Schools. It is

recommended that the data contained in this report be reviewed on an annual basis to

determine how more recent trends will impact both the enrollment and any new housing

development.

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ENROLLMENT PROJECTION METHODOLOGY

Introduction

Tracing the landscape of the country’s

public school enrollment back over

the past fifty years reveals

demographic, economic, and social

changes. The United States as a

whole continues to undergo major

shifts in public student enrollment,

due in large part to past events

including the baby boom, the

availability and use of birth control,

and the development of suburbs. The

baby boom of the late 1940s and 50s was followed by the baby bust of the 1960s and 70s. This

gave rise to the echo baby boom of the 1980s.

Nationwide, districts have experienced the

effects of the echo baby bust of the 1990s.

From the 1950s to the 1970s, a dramatic

downsizing of the family unit occurred. A

direct result was the declining school

enrollment of the 1970s and 1980s. As of

the 2010 Census, the size of a family was at

an all-time low of 3.14 persons. The live

birth rate increased for the first time in

several years in 1998 and increased again in 2000. However, the birth rate resumed a

descending pattern in 2001 and reached an all-time low of 12.5 (per 1,000) in 2013

(preliminary).

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

U.S. TOTAL LIVE BIRTHS

Boom

Bust

Echo

Boom Echo

Bust

Source: CDC, National Vital Statistics Report

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

U.S. POPULATION - LIVE BIRTH RATE

PER 1,000 POPULATION

Source: CDC, National Vita l Statistics Report

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Obviously, certain factors can be gauged and planned for far better than others. For instance,

it may be relatively straightforward to gather housing data from local builders regarding the

total number of lots in a planned subdivision and calculate the potential student yield.

However, planning for changes in the unemployment rate, and how these may either boost or

reduce public school enrollment, proves more difficult. In any case, it is essential to gather a

wide variety of information in preparation for producing enrollment projections.

When looking ahead at a school district’s enrollment over the next two, five, or ten years, it is

helpful to approach the process from a global perspective. For example: How many new

homes have been constructed each year? How many births have occurred each year in relation

to the resident population? Is housing experiencing a turnover—if so, what is the composition

of families moving in/out? Are more or less students attending private school or being home-

schooled? What has the unemployment rate trend been over the past ten years? What new

educational policies are in place that could affect student enrollment figures?

The cohort survival methodology is often used to answer these questions and is standard

throughout the educational planning industry. The enrollment projections developed for the

Goochland County Public Schools were developed using the cohort survival method.

When projecting future enrollments, it is vital to track the number of live births, the amount of

new housing activity, and the change in household composition. In addition, any of the

following factors could cause a significant change in projected student enrollment:

• Boundary adjustments

• New school openings

• Changes / additions in program offerings

• Preschool programs

• Change in grade configuration

• Interest rates / unemployment shifts

• Zoning changes

• Open Enrollment

• Magnet / Charter / Private school

opening or closure

• Unplanned new housing activity

• Planned, but not built, housing

• School voucher programs

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Cohort Survival Method

A cohort is a group of persons [in this case, students]. The cohort survival enrollment

projection methodology uses historic live birth data and historic student enrollment to “age” a

known population or cohort throughout the school grades. For instance, a cohort begins when

a group of kindergarteners enrolls in grade K and moves to first grade the following year,

second grade the next year, and so on.

A “survival ratio” is developed to track how this group of students increased or decreased in

number as they moved through the grade levels. By developing survival ratios for each grade

transition [i.e. 2nd to 3rd grade] over a ten year period of time, patterns emerge and can be

folded into projections by using the survival ratio as a multiplier.

For example, if student enrollment has consistently increased from the 8th to the 9th grade

over the past ten years, the survival ratio would be greater than 100% and could be multiplied

by the current 8th grade to develop a projection for next year’s 9th grade. This methodology

can be carried through to develop ten years of projection figures. Because there is not a grade

cohort to follow for students coming into kindergarten, live birth counts are used to develop a

survival ratio. Babies born five years previous to the kindergarten class are compared in

number, and a ratio can be developed to project future kindergarten enrollments.

The cohort survival method is

useful in areas where population

is stable [relatively flat, growing

steadily, or declining steadily],

and where there have been no

significant fluctuations in

enrollment, births, and housing

patterns from year to year.

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U.S. CENSUS

According to the U.S. Census Bureau,

the population in Goochland County,

Virginia increased from 16,863 to

21,717, or approximately 29 percent,

between the 2000 and 2010 Census.

In terms of school-aged children [5-19],

the population increased by 799, or 27

percent. The under age 5 population

increased from 875 to 1,012, or 16

percent.

The median age of an Goochland

County, Virginia resident is 45.2, an

increase of 4.7 years since the 2000

Census.

The average household size increased

from 2.51 to 2.54. The average family

size remained the same at 2.88.

The number of total housing units

increased in tandem with the number

of occupied and vacant housing units.

The table to the right provides a

comparison of the 2000 and 2010 U.S.

Census data.

Subject 2000 2010

Total population 16,863 21,717

SEX AND AGE

Male 8,494 10,764

Female 8,369 10,953

Under 5 years 875 1,012

5 to 19 years 2,977 3,776

20 to 64 years 10,902 13,692

65 years and over 2,109 3,237

Median age (years) 40.5 45.2

RACE

One Race 99.2% 98.8%

White 72.7% 77.5%

Black or African American 25.6% 19.2%

American Indian and Alaska Native 0.2% 0.2%

Asian 0.5% 1.0%

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 0.0% 0.0%

Some Other Race 0.2% 0.8%

Two or More Races 0.8% 1.2%

Hispanic or Latino 0.9% 2.1%

DEMOGRAPHICS

Average household size 2.51 2.54

Average family size 2.88 2.88

HOUSING OCCUPANCY

Total housing units 6,555 8,618

Occupied housing units 6,158 7,998

Vacant housing units 397 620

GOOCHLAND COUNTY, VA

U.S. CENSUS

Source: U.S. Census

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GENERAL DEMOGRAPHICS

The following information represents block group estimates and projections created from

market research and U.S. Census data obtained from the Environmental Systems Research

Institute [ESRI]. ESRI provides a yearly update to their demographic data in increments of five

years. To make updates to their demographic data set, they use American Community Survey

[ACS] data that takes a series of monthly sample surveys but only from areas with populations

of 65,000 or more. One year of ACS data is a period estimate as a twelve-month average,

rather than a single point in time.

According to the ESRI estimates, the total population of Goochland County, Virginia is

projected to increase over the next five years. As illustrated in the table, the number of

children, ages 5-18, is projected to increase by 78 children.

Age 2016 2021

Ages 0-2 557 554

Ages 3-4 410 400

Ages 5-10 1,501 1,472

Ages 11-13 894 899

Ages 14-18 1,310 1,412

Ages 5-18 3,705 3,783

Total Population 22,721 23,910

Source: ESRI BIS

GOOCHLAND COUNTY

POPULATION ESTIMATES

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Ages 0-2 Ages 3-4 Ages 5-10 Ages 11-13 Ages 14-18

GOOCHLAND COUNTY

POPULATION ESTIMATES

2016 2021

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ESTIMATED SCHOOL AGED POPULATION GROWTH 2016-2021

The map below shows school age population change in the U.S. Census block groups within /

around the Goochland County Public Schools boundary. Population changes are based on

2016 and 2021 estimates.

A block group is defined by the U.S. Census Bureau as, “a statistical division of a census tract,

generally defined to contain between 600 and 3,000 people and 240 and 1,200 housing units,

and the smallest geographic unit for which the Census Bureau tabulates sample data.”

Legend

School Type

") ES

#* MS

_̂ HS

GCPS Elementary Boundaries

School Aged Population Change

2016 - 2021 Estimate

>15%

10.1% - 15%

5.1% - 10%

0.1% - 5%

-4.9% - 0%

< -5%

´

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HOUSING DATA

Housing development and building permits are tracked to determine their effect on student

enrollment. The tables below illustrates the number of single and multi-family building

permits issued in Goochland County since 2000.

Year Single-Family

2000 223

2001 246

2002 267

2003 286

2004 310

2005 380

2006 281

2007 196

2008 98

2009 75

2010 60

2011 47

2012 88

2013 142

2014 127

2015 136

2016 129

2017* 54

*preliminary through March 2017

BUILDING PERMITS

GOOCHLAND COUNTY

Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

BUILDING PERMITS

GOOCHLAND COUNTY

Single-Family

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LIVE BIRTH DATA

Utilization of live birth data is recommended when projecting future kindergarten

enrollments. This data provides a helpful overall trend. Large bubbles in birth counts, either

up or down, can also be planned for or anticipated by the Division.

In addition, the live birth counts are used in determining a birth-to-kindergarten and birth-to-

first grade survival ratio. This ratio identifies the percentage of children born in a

representative area who attend kindergarten and first grade in the Division five and six years

later. The survival ratios for birth-to-kindergarten, birth-to-first grade, as well as grades 1-12

can be found on page 13 of this report.

Data is arranged by the residence of the mother. For

example, if a mother lives in Goochland County but

delivers her baby in Norfolk, the birth is counted in

Goochland County. Live birth counts are different

from live birth rates. The live birth count is simply

the actual number of live births. A birth rate is the

number of births per 1,000 women in a specified

population group.

The chart and graph includes the live birth counts for

Goochland County.

Year # of births

2005 198

2006 213

2007 194

2008 209

2009 179

2010 173

2011 151

2012 165

2013 157

2014 185

GOOCHLAND COUNTY

LIVE BIRTH COUNTS

Source: Virginia Department of Health

0

50

100

150

200

250

LIVE BIRTH COUNTS

GOOCHLAND COUNTY

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SURVIVAL RATIOS

The chart below demonstrates the ten-year changes in enrollment as students move through

the system. Percentages greater than 100 indicate that there are more students than there were

in the previous grade the previous year. In other words, there was an increase in student

population where new students were added to the system. Percentages less than 100 indicate

that there was decline or students left the system. If the exact number of students in 1st grade

during the 2010-11 school year were present in 2nd grade for the 2011-12 school year, the

survival ratio would be 100 percent.

Birth-to-Kindergarten and Birth-to-First Grade: This ratio indicates the number of children

born in the area who attend kindergarten and first grade in the Division five and six years

later. What is important to note is the trend in survival ratio, not necessarily the actual

number.

The following table illustrates the historical survival ratios in the Goochland County Public

Schools over the past ten years by grade level. Survival Ratios - District-wide

from to Birth to K K to 1 Birth to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 4 to 5 5 to 6 6 to 7 7 to 8 8 to 9 9 to 10 10 to 11 11 to 12

2007 2008 Inf 102.67% Inf 98.54% 101.81% 107.26% 105.59% 110.84% 101.13% 101.91% 109.04% 103.57% 95.54% 91.10%

2008 2009 Inf 96.84% Inf 96.88% 104.43% 104.14% 100.00% 102.12% 104.89% 100.00% 121.25% 97.93% 85.22% 108.29%

2009 2010 88.89% 102.31% Inf 92.39% 105.38% 97.64% 99.43% 108.33% 101.04% 94.30% 113.41% 100.52% 92.59% 106.94%

2010 2011 75.59% 97.16% 86.36% 93.79% 101.76% 94.39% 96.62% 99.43% 96.63% 96.41% 112.64% 96.06% 84.10% 106.29%

2011 2012 81.96% 94.41% 71.36% 96.49% 95.78% 102.31% 98.38% 103.50% 103.45% 97.51% 120.74% 89.76% 84.62% 103.05%

2012 2013 89.95% 103.77% 85.05% 111.18% 106.67% 107.55% 105.65% 105.49% 98.07% 100.00% 107.65% 88.55% 94.57% 110.30%

2013 2014 78.77% 103.72% 93.30% 103.64% 102.37% 102.84% 98.83% 104.28% 104.17% 99.51% 106.11% 92.89% 99.00% 107.47%

2014 2015 106.36% 113.48% 89.39% 104.10% 108.19% 108.09% 108.29% 105.92% 100.00% 100.50% 115.35% 98.43% 93.88% 108.54%

2015 2016 99.34% 101.63% 108.09% 101.88% 107.88% 103.24% 101.07% 103.57% 101.68% 106.15% 107.96% 97.42% 98.40% 107.07%

mean simple all years Inf 101.78% Inf 99.88% 103.81% 103.05% 101.54% 104.83% 101.23% 99.59% 112.68% 96.12% 91.99% 105.45%

std. dev. simple all years NA 5.54% NA 5.91% 3.90% 4.60% 3.99% 3.36% 2.73% 3.39% 5.59% 4.92% 5.87% 5.73%

mean simple 5 years 91.28% 103.40% 89.44% 103.46% 104.18% 104.81% 102.44% 104.55% 101.47% 100.73% 111.56% 93.41% 94.09% 107.29%

std. dev. simple 5 years 11.59% 6.81% 13.31% 5.27% 5.24% 2.78% 4.36% 1.11% 2.50% 3.23% 6.26% 4.43% 5.76% 2.68%





mean weighted all years Inf 103.99% Inf 102.33% 105.53% 104.10% 102.39% 104.44% 101.23% 101.50% 110.96% 95.62% 94.82% 107.23%

std. dev. weighted all years NA 6.01% NA 4.71% 3.80% 3.64% 4.08% 1.98% 2.25% 3.73% 4.95% 3.92% 5.05% 2.79%

mean weighted 5 years 97.64% 104.83% 99.22% 103.04% 106.90% 104.65% 102.83% 104.36% 101.39% 103.32% 109.95% 96.42% 96.73% 107.57%

std. dev. weighted 5 years 9.61% 5.89% 11.39% 2.74% 2.91% 2.53% 3.90% 1.15% 1.66% 3.48% 4.30% 3.13% 3.25% 1.30%





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HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT

As indicated in the table below, over the past ten years, student enrollment in the

Goochland County Public Schools has increased by 183 students.

Historical Enrollment - District-wide

Grade 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

PK 37 NA NA 40 30 29 52 38 55 77

K - 5 1,083 1,135 1,123 1,101 1,056 994 1,056 1,030 1,115 1,099

6 - 8 511 523 565 585 563 583 575 597 575 592

9 - 12 780 763 765 758 750 745 768 773 821 826

Grand Total 2,411 2,421 2,453 2,484 2,399 2,351 2,451 2,438 2,566 2,594

Source: Goochland County Public Schools

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000



Grade 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

PK 37 NA NA 40 30 29 52 38 55 77

K 187 190 173 176 161 159 188 141 184 150

1 206 192 184 177 171 152 165 195 160 187

2 166 203 186 170 166 165 169 171 203 163

3 179 169 212 196 173 159 176 173 185 219

4 179 192 176 207 185 177 171 181 187 191

5 166 189 192 175 200 182 187 169 196 189

6 177 184 193 208 174 207 192 195 179 203

7 157 179 193 195 201 180 203 200 195 182

8 177 160 179 182 188 196 180 202 201 207

9 196 193 194 203 205 227 211 191 233 217

10 202 203 189 195 195 184 201 196 188 227

11 191 193 173 175 164 165 174 199 184 185

12 191 174 209 185 186 169 182 187 216 197

Grand Total 2,411 2,421 2,453 2,484 2,399 2,351 2,451 2,438 2,566 2,594


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Historical Enrollment - by School

School 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Trend

Byrd Elementary 320 335 329 315 304 282 314 301 327 336

Goochland Elementary 388 373 364 385 370 344 350 329 350 354

Goochland High 780 763 765 758 750 745 768 773 821 826

Goochland Middle 511 523 565 585 563 583 575 597 575 592

Randolph Elementary 412 427 430 441 412 397 444 438 493 486

Total 2,411 2,421 2,453 2,484 2,399 2,351 2,451 2,438 2,566 2,594


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5/31/2017

PROJECTED ENROLLMENT

Cooperative Strategies developed low, moderate, high, and recommended enrollment

projections for the Goochland County Public Schools. The low projection illustrates a

conservative approach reflecting an economy that may have higher inflation / interest

rates, a decline in new housing, and / or a decline in live births. The high projection

takes a more liberal approach and reflects an economy that may have lower inflation /

interest rates, a high level of new housing, and / or an increase in live births. The

moderate falls in between these two approaches. The recommended projection

illustrates the most likely direction of the Division based on more recent trends in the

Division.

LOW PROJECTION

↑ Higher inflation / interest rates

↓ Decline in new housing

↓ Decline in live births

MODERATE PROJECTION

↔ Moderate inflation

↔ Moderate level of new housing

↔ Stagnate number of live births

HIGH PROJECTION

↓ Low inflation / interest rates

↑ High level of new housing

↑ Increase in live births

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Historical & Projected Enrollment - Goochland County Public Schools

Historical Projected - Moderate/Recommended Projected - Low Projected - High

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PROJECTED ENROLLMENT—MODERATE/RECOMMENDED

Based on the moderate/recommended projected enrollment, the student enrollment in the

Goochland County Public Schools is projected to increase from 2,594 students in 2016-17 to

2,825 students in 2026-27.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Projected Enrollment -

Moderate/Recommended - District-wide

Projected Enrollment - Moderate/Recommended - District-wide

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

PK 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77

K - 5 1,108 1,110 1,097 1,117 1,103 1,130 1,139 1,157 1,142 1,144

6 - 8 594 618 657 654 681 628 645 614 659 664

9 - 12 858 872 876 887 896 969 956 992 981 940

Grand Total 2,637 2,677 2,707 2,735 2,757 2,804 2,817 2,840 2,859 2,825

Source: Cooperative Strategies

Projected Enrollment - Moderate/Recommended - District-wide

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

PK 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77

K 164 157 185 169 170 172 172 172 172 172

1 156 172 163 192 176 178 179 179 179 179

2 192 159 175 167 197 180 182 183 183 182

3 175 207 173 190 180 211 194 196 197 198

4 227 182 214 180 197 188 221 202 204 205

5 194 233 187 219 183 201 191 225 207 208

6 197 203 242 193 228 191 209 199 234 214

7 206 199 206 245 196 231 194 212 202 238

8 191 216 209 216 257 206 242 203 223 212

9 226 208 236 228 236 281 225 265 222 243

10 211 220 203 230 223 230 274 219 258 216

11 222 206 215 198 224 217 224 267 214 252

12 199 238 222 231 213 241 233 241 287 229

Grand Total 2,637 2,677 2,707 2,735 2,757 2,804 2,817 2,840 2,859 2,825


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Projected Enrollment - Moderate/Recommended - by School

School 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 Trend

Byrd Elementary 345 345 349 358 360 367 369 375 371 370


Goochland High 858 872 876 887 896 969 956 992 981 940



Total 2,637 2,677 2,707 2,735 2,757 2,804 2,817 2,840 2,859 2,825


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5/31/2017


PROJECTED ENROLLMENT—LOW

Based on the low projected enrollment, the student enrollment in the Goochland County

Public Schools is projected to decrease from 2,594 students in 2016-17 to 2,510 students in 2026-

27.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Projected Enrollment - Low - District-wide


Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

PK 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77

K - 5 1,085 1,063 1,028 1,035 1,012 1,026 1,033 1,049 1,037 1,039

6 - 8 590 609 640 626 640 577 577 536 567 572

9 - 12 850 857 853 854 854 915 891 908 882 822

Grand Total 2,602 2,606 2,598 2,592 2,583 2,595 2,578 2,570 2,563 2,510



Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

PK 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77

K 158 150 177 162 165 165 165 165 165 165

1 151 160 151 178 164 165 167 167 166 167

2 189 152 160 152 180 165 166 167 168 167

3 171 199 161 171 162 191 174 176 177 177

4 223 176 204 166 175 166 195 178 181 181

5 193 226 175 206 166 174 166 196 180 182

6 196 199 234 182 212 172 181 173 203 186

7 205 198 201 236 184 214 174 183 174 205

8 189 212 205 208 244 191 222 180 190 181

9 223 203 229 220 224 263 205 239 194 204

10 210 216 197 221 213 217 255 199 232 188

11 219 203 209 190 214 206 210 246 192 224

12 198 235 218 223 203 229 221 224 264 206

Grand Total 2,602 2,606 2,598 2,592 2,583 2,595 2,578 2,570 2,563 2,510


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Projected Enrollment - Low - by School

School 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 Trend

Byrd Elementary 341 335 335 341 341 345 347 352 349 350


Goochland High 850 857 853 854 854 915 891 908 882 822



Total 2,602 2,606 2,598 2,592 2,583 2,595 2,578 2,570 2,563 2,510


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5/31/2017


PROJECTED ENROLLMENT—HIGH

Based on the high projected enrollment, the student enrollment in the Goochland County

Public Schools is projected to increase from 2,594 students in 2016-17 to 3,178 students in 2026-

27.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Projected Enrollment - High - District-wide


Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

PK 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77

K - 5 1,133 1,155 1,163 1,201 1,204 1,241 1,250 1,273 1,253 1,258

6 - 8 598 628 675 684 724 682 719 702 762 769

9 - 12 865 890 900 921 938 1,025 1,024 1,081 1,089 1,074

Grand Total 2,673 2,750 2,815 2,883 2,943 3,025 3,070 3,133 3,181 3,178



Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

PK 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77

K 171 162 192 176 177 178 178 178 178 178

1 162 184 175 207 189 191 192 192 192 192

2 194 167 190 181 214 195 197 199 199 198

3 179 214 184 210 200 235 215 218 218 220

4 230 188 226 194 222 212 249 228 230 232

5 197 240 196 233 202 230 219 258 236 238

6 198 207 250 205 244 211 240 229 269 246

7 207 201 211 255 209 249 215 245 233 275

8 193 220 214 224 271 222 264 228 260 248

9 229 214 243 237 248 300 245 293 253 288

10 213 225 210 239 232 243 294 240 287 248

11 224 210 221 207 235 229 239 290 237 283

12 199 241 226 238 223 253 246 258 312 255

Grand Total 2,673 2,750 2,815 2,883 2,943 3,025 3,070 3,133 3,181 3,178


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PAGE 22

5/31/2017

Projected Enrollment - High - by School

School 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 Trend

Byrd Elementary 350 354 363 375 380 389 391 398 393 394


Goochland High 865 890 900 921 938 1,025 1,024 1,081 1,089 1,074



Total 2,673 2,750 2,815 2,883 2,943 3,025 3,070 3,133 3,181 3,178


DRAFT



PAGE 23

5/31/2017

ENROLLMENT BY SCHOOL

The following pages illustrate historical and projected enrollment by school.

Byrd Elementary .............................................................................................................................. 24

Goochland Elementary ................................................................................................................... 25

Goochland High .............................................................................................................................. 26

Goochland Middle........................................................................................................................... 27

Randolph Elementary ..................................................................................................................... 28

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PAGE 24

5/31/2017

BYRD ELEMENTARY

Historical Enrollment - Byrd Elementary

Grade 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

PK NA NA NA NA NA NA 16 16 21 19

K 57 49 47 50 48 52 51 46 53 50

1 63 62 46 47 45 47 54 51 48 53

2 47 63 61 41 44 41 51 52 53 46

3 53 54 64 64 47 46 47 46 55 58

4 49 55 55 61 59 43 46 45 51 59

5 51 52 56 52 61 53 49 45 46 51

Grand Total 320 335 329 315 304 282 314 301 327 336


Projected Enrollment - Moderate/Recommended - Byrd Elementary

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

PK 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19

K 53 51 60 55 55 56 56 56 56 56

1 50 54 51 60 55 56 56 56 56 56

2 52 49 52 50 59 54 54 55 55 54

3 50 56 53 57 54 63 58 59 59 59

4 62 53 60 57 61 58 68 62 63 63

5 59 63 54 60 57 61 58 68 63 63

Grand Total 345 345 349 358 360 367 369 375 371 370


Projected Enrollment - Low - Byrd Elementary

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

PK 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19

K 52 49 58 53 54 54 54 54 54 54

1 50 52 49 58 53 54 54 54 54 54

2 51 48 50 47 56 51 51 52 52 52

3 49 54 51 53 50 59 54 54 55 55

4 61 52 57 54 56 53 62 57 58 58

5 59 61 51 57 53 55 53 62 57 58

Grand Total 341 335 335 341 341 345 347 352 349 350


Projected Enrollment - High - Byrd Elementary

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

PK 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19

K 55 52 62 56 57 57 57 57 57 57

1 51 56 53 63 57 58 58 58 58 58

2 52 50 55 53 62 57 57 58 58 58

3 51 58 55 61 58 68 62 63 63 64

4 63 55 63 60 66 63 74 68 69 69

5 59 64 56 63 61 67 64 75 69 69

Grand Total 350 354 363 375 380 389 391 398 393 394


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PAGE 25

5/31/2017

GOOCHLAND ELEMENTARY

Historical Enrollment - Goochland Elementary

Grade 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

PK 37 NA NA 33 30 26 30 16 31 34

K 55 70 53 51 54 49 53 36 46 41

1 68 56 66 55 54 53 45 55 39 54

2 55 68 53 62 51 51 55 50 58 39

3 60 54 71 60 55 46 51 60 54 70

4 61 63 58 65 59 59 55 56 61 53

5 52 62 63 59 67 60 61 56 61 63

Grand Total 388 373 364 385 370 344 350 329 350 354


Projected Enrollment - Moderate/Recommended - Goochland Elementary

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

PK 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34

K 44 42 50 45 46 46 46 46 46 46

1 47 51 48 57 52 53 53 53 53 53

2 55 48 52 49 58 53 54 54 54 54

3 46 65 57 61 58 68 62 63 63 64

4 69 46 64 56 60 58 68 62 63 63

5 55 72 48 67 58 63 60 71 65 65

Grand Total 350 358 353 369 366 375 377 383 378 379


Projected Enrollment - Low - Goochland Elementary

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

PK 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34

K 43 41 48 44 45 45 45 45 45 45

1 46 49 46 54 50 50 51 51 50 51

2 54 46 48 46 54 50 50 50 51 50

3 45 62 53 56 53 63 57 58 58 58

4 68 44 61 52 55 52 61 56 57 57

5 55 71 45 63 54 56 53 63 58 58

Grand Total 345 347 335 349 345 350 351 357 353 353


Projected Enrollment - High - Goochland Elementary

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

PK 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34

K 45 43 51 47 47 47 47 47 47 47

1 48 53 51 60 55 55 56 56 56 56

2 56 50 55 52 62 56 57 57 57 57

3 47 67 60 66 63 74 68 69 69 69

4 70 47 68 60 67 64 75 69 69 70

5 56 74 50 71 64 70 67 79 72 73

Grand Total 356 368 369 390 392 400 404 411 404 406


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5/31/2017

GOOCHLAND HIGH

Historical Enrollment - Goochland High

Grade 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

9 196 193 194 203 205 227 211 191 233 217

10 202 203 189 195 195 184 201 196 188 227

11 191 193 173 175 164 165 174 199 184 185

12 191 174 209 185 186 169 182 187 216 197

Grand Total 780 763 765 758 750 745 768 773 821 826


Projected Enrollment - Moderate/Recommended - Goochland High

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

9 226 208 236 228 236 281 225 265 222 243

10 211 220 203 230 223 230 274 219 258 216

11 222 206 215 198 224 217 224 267 214 252

12 199 238 222 231 213 241 233 241 287 229

Grand Total 858 872 876 887 896 969 956 992 981 940


Projected Enrollment - Low - Goochland High

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

9 223 203 229 220 224 263 205 239 194 204

10 210 216 197 221 213 217 255 199 232 188

11 219 203 209 190 214 206 210 246 192 224

12 198 235 218 223 203 229 221 224 264 206

Grand Total 850 857 853 854 854 915 891 908 882 822


Projected Enrollment - High - Goochland High

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

9 229 214 243 237 248 300 245 293 253 288

10 213 225 210 239 232 243 294 240 287 248

11 224 210 221 207 235 229 239 290 237 283

12 199 241 226 238 223 253 246 258 312 255

Grand Total 865 890 900 921 938 1,025 1,024 1,081 1,089 1,074

Source: Cooperative Strategies DRAFT



PAGE 27

5/31/2017

GOOCHLAND MIDDLE

Historical Enrollment - Goochland Middle

Grade 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

6 177 184 193 208 174 207 192 195 179 203

7 157 179 193 195 201 180 203 200 195 182

8 177 160 179 182 188 196 180 202 201 207

Grand Total 511 523 565 585 563 583 575 597 575 592


Projected Enrollment - Moderate/Recommended - Goochland Middle

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

6 197 203 242 193 228 191 209 199 234 214

7 206 199 206 245 196 231 194 212 202 238

8 191 216 209 216 257 206 242 203 223 212

Grand Total 594 618 657 654 681 628 645 614 659 664


Projected Enrollment - Low - Goochland Middle

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

6 196 199 234 182 212 172 181 173 203 186

7 205 198 201 236 184 214 174 183 174 205

8 189 212 205 208 244 191 222 180 190 181

Grand Total 590 609 640 626 640 577 577 536 567 572


Projected Enrollment - High - Goochland Middle

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

6 198 207 250 205 244 211 240 229 269 246

7 207 201 211 255 209 249 215 245 233 275

8 193 220 214 224 271 222 264 228 260 248

Grand Total 598 628 675 684 724 682 719 702 762 769

Source: Cooperative Strategies DRAFT



PAGE 28

5/31/2017

RANDOLPH ELEMENTARY

Historical Enrollment - Randolph Elementary

Grade 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

PK NA NA NA 7 NA 3 6 6 3 24

K 75 71 73 75 59 58 84 59 85 59

1 75 74 72 75 72 52 66 89 73 80

2 64 72 72 67 71 73 63 69 92 78

3 66 61 77 72 71 67 78 67 76 91

4 69 74 63 81 67 75 70 80 75 79

5 63 75 73 64 72 69 77 68 89 75

Grand Total 412 427 430 441 412 397 444 438 493 486


Projected Enrollment - Moderate/Recommended - Randolph Elementary

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

PK 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

K 67 64 75 69 69 70 70 70 70 70

1 59 67 64 75 69 69 70 70 70 70

2 85 62 71 68 80 73 74 74 74 74

3 79 86 63 72 68 80 74 74 75 75

4 96 83 90 67 76 72 85 78 78 79

5 80 98 85 92 68 77 73 86 79 80

Grand Total 490 484 472 467 454 465 470 476 470 472


Projected Enrollment - Low - Randolph Elementary

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

PK 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

K 63 60 71 65 66 66 66 66 66 66

1 55 59 56 66 61 61 62 62 62 62

2 84 58 62 59 70 64 65 65 65 65

3 77 83 57 62 59 69 63 64 64 64

4 94 80 86 60 64 61 72 65 66 66

5 79 94 79 86 59 63 60 71 65 66

Grand Total 476 458 435 422 403 408 412 417 412 413


Projected Enrollment - High - Randolph Elementary

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

PK 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

K 71 67 79 73 73 74 74 74 74 74

1 63 75 71 84 77 78 78 78 78 78

2 86 67 80 76 90 82 83 84 84 83

3 81 89 69 83 79 93 85 86 86 87

4 97 86 95 74 89 85 100 91 92 93

5 82 102 90 99 77 93 88 104 95 96

Grand Total 504 510 508 513 509 529 532 541 533 535


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PAGE 29

5/31/2017

CONCLUSION

As with any projection, the Division should pay close attention to live birth counts, enrollment

in elementary schools, open enrollment, non-public enrollment, in / out migration patterns,

and any housing growth. It is recommended that this document be reviewed on an annual

basis to determine how more recent growth and enrollment trends will impact the enrollment

projections.

Cooperative Strategies is pleased to have had the opportunity to provide the Division with

enrollment projection services. We hope this document will provide the necessary information

to make informed decisions about the future of the Goochland County Public Schools.

DRAFT

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