good oil conference · 2017. 1. 22. · 3 profile ¬established in papua new guinea (png) in 1929...
TRANSCRIPT
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Good Oil Conference
September 2008
O I L S E A R C H L I M I T E D
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Summary
Oil Search has delivered sustained top quartile growth over past five years (53% annualised return)Delivery of PNG LNG Project over next four years, together with progressive development of 2nd and 3rd tier gas, has potential to multiply Company value over this periodPNG LNG – The Premier AsiaPac LNG Project:
On track to deliver FID towards end 2009, with first LNG in late 2013/early 2014
Thirty+ year legacy project, with capacity to triple OSH production. Also positively impacts oil field life, value and reservesCurrent share price discounts assessed PNG LNG value and reflects no value for further gas developments or exploration
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Profile
Established in Papua New Guinea (PNG) in 1929
Operates all of PNG’s producing oil and gas fields. Current gross production ~44,000 boepd, net share ~23,000 boepd
As operator, responsible for generating 22% of PNG’s export revenue and 16% of its GDP in 2007
PNG Government is largest shareholder at 17.6%
PNG’s largest investor and taxpayer
At 1.1.08, 73.5 mmboe 2P reserves plus 950 mmboe undeveloped 2C gas and liquids resource. ~60% of resource is dedicated to PNG LNG, a world scale LNG development operated by ExxonMobil, remainder still to be commercialised
Range of material exploration interests in PNG and Middle East/North Africa
Market capitalisation ~US$5.5 billion. Listed on ASX (Share Code OSH) and POMSOX, plus ADR programme (Share Code OISHY)
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Consistent strong performance over past 5 years
Jul 03 Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08
Share price (rebased to OSH)
Oil Search
Santos
Woodside
ASX 200
WTI oil
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Ranked No.5 TSR Performer amongst current ASX 100 for 5 year period to Dec 2007 (53% on an annualised basis)
1 Aug 08
0.84 1.02 1.33 1.81 3.00 3.69 4.22 3.35 4.16 4.85 6.67
30.33 32.51 38.67 42.17 59.25 61.06 73.85 60.85 71.10 95.95 140.97
OSH (A$/share)
WTI(US$/bbl)
(Actual values of the 1st of the month)
5.56
123.26
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World ClassSafety Performance
Total Recordable Incidents (TRIs) 1998 – 2007
APPEAOSH OGPTRI / 1,000,000 Hours
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20050
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
20072006
Oil Search
Australian Companies
International Companies
8.5
10.69.8 10.7
5.8
1.7
4.7
2.4 2.32.05
12.7
9.1 9.37.8
7.0 7.3
5.2
6.8
4.0 3.1 2.9
9.4
8.2
8.3
6.3
2.7
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Clear Strategy to Deliver Value
2007/08 Strategy Review defined initiatives to continue top quartile returns by unlocking value
within existing asset baseMajor strategy objectives
2007/08 Strategy Review decision for PNG LNG Project
Transforms Oil Search into significant LNGproducer, 30 plus year legacy project
Position Company to drive 2nd phase gas developments using existing 2C, 3C gas reserves & through gas explorationOptimise PNG oil field operating performance to sustain production and cashflows up to and beyond first gasPursue material exploration opportunities in PNG and MENA
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PNG LNG Project
AsiaPac’s next LNG
development
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Primary Focus - PNG LNG
PNG LNG Project represents PNG’s cornerstone gas development, will more than double country's GDP
“Affects economy of PNG and its balance of trade situation profoundly” (ACIL Tasman report , Feb 2008)
Will underpin Oil Search’s production and profits for 30+ years
Will commercialise ~550 mmboe of Oil Search’s 2C gas resources and add ~20 mmboe to annual net production, tripling current production
Will unlock value for OSH and shareholders
New gas developments at premium prices (BG & Origin, Petronas/Santos, Shell/Arrow, QGC/Sunshine Gas)
AGL sale will provide market a window to project value
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Regional LNG marketsare robust
Notes1. Project Under Construction include: Pluto LNG, Tangguh LNG, Yemen LNG, Qatar Gas 2,3,4, RL3, Angola LNG2. Possible projects include: PNG LNG, Sunrise LGN, Gorgon LNG, Browse, Ichthys, Scarborough, Wheatstone LNG, 4 Gladstone projects, Sulawesi, Abadi, Brunei LNG II,
NLNG VII, Brass LNG, OK LNG, Iran LNG3. Speculative projects include: projects that currently lack any reasonable definition in terms of participants, structure or underlying resources as well as defined supply where
major issues are preventing the project from making substantial progress
Regional market fundamentals remain robust
Steady expansion from existing markets (Japan, Korea, Taiwan)
Growth from emerging markets of India & China and new markets
Decline in existing contracts and concern with new project timing
Supply and Demand imbalance after 2012
Projects under construction do not match capacity
Extensive set of projects in queue from 2013 onwards
Pacific Basin LNG Supply and Demand to 2020mmpta
Onstream Under Construction Possible Speculative Pacific LNG Demand
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
“LNG supply unlikely to keep up with demand with high prices set to continue in the medium term”
“Some of these possible projects are tenuous e.g., LNG from Iran, and actual supply will be lower than shown”
Source Wood MacKenzie Global LNG, April 2008
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LNG Projects Under Construction and Proposed
Large number of possible projects under consideration
Not many possible projects will be able to cover the demand gap in 2013
Western Australia: strong cost pressures and competition for resources
Potential first production post 2014/15
Australian CSG projects: 4+ projects competing for 2014 window, new technology with several hurdles to be overcomeIncreasing foreign focus
PNG LNG is an attractive option relative to others
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LNG Pricing
Strong pricing drivers:Supply/demand fundamentalsPull from EuropeDelays in other projectsEnvironmental advantagesPricing and challenges with competing energy sources
Recent contract pricing around oil price parity:
Recent contracts:Sept 07: Petrochina, 2-3 mtpa, 15 - 20 years ex BrowseSept 07: Petrochina, 1 mtpa, 20 years ex Gorgon Nov 07: CPC, 2-3 mtpa, 15 - 20 years ex BrowseApril 08: Petrochina, 3 mtpa, 25 years from 2011 ex QatarGasApril 08: CNOOC, 2 mtpa, 25 years from 2009 ex QatarGas II
0
5
10
15
20LNG ($/mmbtu)
20 40 60JCC ($/bbl)
80 100
Traditional Contracting
Crude Oil Parity
NWS 2007 Contracting
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World Class and World Scale LNG Project2C resources of 9.3 tcf
6.3 mmtpa, 2 train LNG project
Clean gas rich in liquids
No technology issues or concerns
Well positioned for the Asia market
Rapidly advancing in optimal timeframe to satisfy regionaldemand in 2013/2014 period
Joint Venture is strongly aligned with supportive Government
Strong OperatorExxonMobil is the Project operator – excellent record of project delivery on time and on budget, assisted by comprehensive pre-FEED process
Oil Search providing PNG experience
Strong Project team
Real Expansion CapacityNew infrastructure will stimulate additional gas development
Substantial existing 2C and 3C resources
PNG LNG:The Premier AsiaPac LNG Project
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PNG LNG Project
Integrated development of Hides, Angore and Juha gas fields plus associated gas from the Kutubu, Agogo, Gobe and Moran oil fields
Upstream infrastructure including production wells, processing facilities and pipeline network linking to the export pipeline
Gas export pipeline from PNG Highlands to LNG plant near Port Moresby
Liquefaction plant, export loading and support facilities located in Portion 152, 20 km from Port Moresby
See schematic above for detail
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PNG LNG Project Milestones Reached in 1H08
Commercial alignment achieved, with Joint Operating Agreement (JOA) executed in March 2008 amongst the Project Owners
Initial funding interests pre-Government back-in agreed (OSH 34%) Unitisation and redetermination procedures agreedActionable finance plan agreed
Marketing Representative Agreement signed for joint marketing of 6.3 mmtpa, led by ExxonMobil, Project rolled-out to buyers at GasTech in Bangkok in March 2008
Gas Agreement signed May 2008Outlines fiscal terms and legal obligations under which Project will operate over its life The terms include 30% tax rate and Additional Profits Tax (APT) which applies once a certain threshold level of return has been achievedSets terms and mechanism for State equity participation in the Project
Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) commenced in May 2008
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Project Status
High quality project team assembled – ExxonMobil personnel plus secondees from partners including OSHFEED activities proceeding on schedule. Target completion in 3Q09 (13 months):
EOS (KBR/ WorleyParsons JV) conducting upstream FEED comprising:− Preliminary engineering design for gas field developments − Gas conditioning and compression facilities− Pipeline and infrastructure
Downstream FEED (LNG plant, storage, marine facilities) being conducted in two phases: − Non-competitive phase - support from KBR − Second, competitive EPC bid phase involving APCI (Air Products
and Chemicals, Inc) and COP (ConocoPhillips) process licensed contractors
Oil Search-managed associated gas FEED study commenced with WorleyParsonsMany Project enhancements, optimisations being considered
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Project Status
Marketing:Negotiations commenced between Project and selected offtakersProject is strongly positioned, competitive advantages recognised by customers Targeting end 08/early 09 for HOAs, SPAs prior to FID
Government committed and supportive Leadership and co-ordination defined Discussions between Government and Landowners commenced on Benefits Sharing AgreementEnvironmental, licensing and permitting activities underway
JV considering proposal for early works programme subject to marketing, Benefits Sharing Agreement and permitting progress
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PNG LNG Capex Estimates
First phase capex (2008 – 2014) expected to be between US$10 –11 bn (real mid-2007 $s)Historically, ExxonMobil has delivered projects on time and on budget Subsequent capex is several years out (additional Hides drilling, Angore and Juha development and potential LPG extraction if required). Juha timing depends on Hides and Angore outcomes and performance Further updates to capex estimates from EPC bids (3Q 09)Further optimisation will occur during dual FEED
Source: ExxonMobil Analyst Briefing 5th March, 2008.
EM Project Execution Performance
Actual vs. Funded (%)
25
Average2003-07 2007
50
75
100
125
0
Cost Schedule
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PNG LNG Financing
Debt:Joint debt financing approach, led by a Finance Committee co-ordinated by ExxonMobil with key input from OSH. Soc Gen financial advisor
Recent road shows elicited strong interest from Export Credit Agencies, commercial banks and rating agencies. Banks positive attitude to PNG demonstrated by OSH’s recent corporate facilityIncluding capitalised interest through construction, financing fees and funding of the debt service reserve, seeking project finance for ~US$11.5 billion (nominal)
OSH share of project finance ~US$3.2 billion (nominal)
Equity:OSH’s equity contribution (nominal) expected to be ~US$1.3 billion
Funded from existing cash (~US$600m), corporate borrowing from refinancing (US$450m) and oil cash flows between 2009 – 2013 (operating cash flow in 1H08 was US$348m)
Will utilise hedging, if required, to protect cash flow and optimise borrowings
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LNG Project Schedule
FEED
PNG GovernmentApprovals
Benefits SharingAgreement
Project Financing
Detailed EngineeringDesign & Procurement
Construction /Commissioning
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
FirstCargoLNG
*Schedule is Indicative only
Marketing
FIDPIMClose
Gas Agreement
Entry
Environmental, Licences etc
EPC bids
HOA’s SPA’s
Possible early works
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Economic Importance ofPNG LNG Project
ACIL Tasman Report 6 February 2008“Affects economy of PNG and its balance of trade situation profoundly”GDP will more than double Oil & Gas exports will increase 4 fold Up to 7,500 jobs in initial phase, 20% by nationals; 850 full time positions, developing national workforce over timeHuge cash flows to Government – national and provincial - and landowners through tax, royalties, levies and equity participation over 30 yearsMultiplier effects additional
Government recognises importance. Leadership and Co-ordination defined:
Political leadership through Ministerial Economic CommitteeCo-ordination branch approved and being implemented
Retention Licence renewal:Government has announced PRL 11 and PRL 12 renewal
Commitment to pursue Benefits Sharing Agreement:Targeting 4Q08/1Q09
Strong support for the Project at local community level
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Impact on Oil Search
For Oil Search, the Project will provide:Annual incremental net production of ~20 mmboe Booking of ~550 mmboe of Oil Search’s 2C gas resources providing positive impact on depreciationPast costs pay back by Government on back-in at Final Investment Decision Value additions to the oilfields by:− Incremental reserves due to extension of oil field life (Gobe to
2024, Kutubu to 2048) and revised reservoir opportunities − Abandonment deferral− Additional pipeline tariffs − Cost sharing benefits in oil fields and pipeline export system− Reduction of oil field taxation rate on conversion
Detailed field review has commenced to analyse field management of gas and oil, optimal development and value synergies− New Moran development plan
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Benchmark of OSH Peersby AV/2P Reserves
PNG LNG FID will allow booking of ~550 mmboe of 2P reserves
Notes1. Comparable global E&P independent listed companies with an agg. value larger than US$1Bn.2. Assumes exchange rate of 0.869 AUD/USD3. Share prices as at 20-Aug-2008
Agg. Value / 2P ReservesUS$/boe
Tullo
w
Lund
inW
oods
ide
ROC
Oil
AWE
Maure
l et P
rom
Adda
x
Dana
Sant
os JKX
Cairn
Vent
ure
Soco
Beac
h Pe
trole
umPA
Res
ourc
es
QGC
DNO
Prem
ier
Oil Se
arch
(+55
0mm
boe)
Nexus
Ene
rgy
Median = US$13.8 boe
0
5
10
15
20
25
60
International Australian
15.014.1 14.1 13.8 13.4
12.7 12.2 11.810.9 10.5
9.48.9
7.9
6.1
54.7
20.4 20.0
18.1
15.1 15.0
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GrowthOpportunities
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Gas Growth Opportunities
PNG LNG Project sets the stage for additional gas-based growth opportunities
Additional LNG developments command the highest value:
Sufficient 2C resources for additional train already exist in PNG fields
Other gas development options also available with robust economics
Oil Search seeking to: Increase contractible gas (exploration, appraisal, acquisition)
Aggregate gas for highest value development option
Key partnerships with State – MOU signed in July
New opportunities need to be considered in a framework of being material for a US$5 bn+ company
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Gas Resource Base
~1/3rd of PNG gas resources are held in the Hides field PNG LNG Project accounts for approximately half of PNG’s discovered gas resource OSH has ~1.6 tcf net of discovered gas plus associated liquids not dedicated to PNG LNG
Technical Gas ~ 17,000 bcfTechnical Gas ~ 17,000 bcfStanley
0.1%
Barikewa4%
Pasca1%
Angore7%Juha
6%
P`nyang10%
Pandora A7%
Kutubu Area8.3%
Hides (Technical Reserve)
Kimu4.8%
Elevala3%
Douglas3%
Elk3%
Ketu2.3%
Uramu2%
Gobe Area2%
Moran1%
Kuru1%
Koko0.1%
Bwata0.3%
SE Mananda0.1%
Iehi1%
Pandora B2%
PNG LNG Project
30%
PNG discovered gas resources by field (Source: Wood Mackenzie Path Finder)
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Oil Search Visionfor LNG Expansion
3.5 – 4.0 tcf additional gas volumes required to underpin construction of additional train
PNG LNG fields comprise Hides, Juha, Angore, Kutubu, Agogo, Moran and Gobe Main
Other Highlands JV partner resources (OSH best estimates) include P’nyang and Juha North
Forelands & Offshore resources include Barikewa, SE Gobe, Pandora & Uramu
Considerable exploration upside. 3 year programme targeting >13 tcf gross resource
3rd Train Threshold
Exploration
0
5
10
15
20
25tcf
PNG LNG
Base Volume
PNG LNG3C
Upside
4th Train Threshold2C
3C
2C
3COther Highlands JV Partner Resources
Forelands & Offshore
Resources
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Other Gas Growth Opportunities
Other gas commercialisation opportunities can also offer attractive returns, diversification and timely delivery. These range from export oriented projects to domestic micro projects including:
Methanol and other derivativesGas to liquids (GtL)Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)Gas for use in mine operations eg extending mine life at PorgeraPower generation and other smaller projects catering to the needs of local communities & industry
Size of dedicated resource important in defining commercial optionRange of study groups are being established with Government and other entities to form non-PNG LNG gas development ‘master plan’
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PNG Oil Operations
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Oil Operations:Providing Cash for Growth
Since Oil Search took over operatorship of PNG oil fields in 2003, fields have produced ~45 mmbbl in excess of previous operator’s expectations and field life extended
Aim is to optimise PNG oil cash generation over the next 5 years to support PNG LNG Project funding requirements
Existing oilfields are mature (decline rate of 15-20%) but with appropriate investment, expect to mitigate decline curve for 2-3 more years
PNG production is highly profitable – in 1H08, cash opex of US$10/bbl, realised oil price of US$118/bbl
Need to balance work programmes and hence production outcomes with demand for rigs for exploration and gas drilling
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Field Development Drilling Activity
Usano:2008 : 4 wells2009 : 1 wells
SE Gobe:2010 : 1-2 wells
Kutubu:2009 : 3 wells
Agogo:2009 : 2 wells
Moran:2008 : 1-2 wells2009 : 1-2 wells
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Production Summary
Net Production (mmboe)
MENA
Hides GTE
SE Mananda
SE Gobe
Gobe Main
Moran
Kutubu
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1H 06 2H 06 1H 07 2H 07 1H 08
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Exploration
33
PNG Exploration
Iwa
Wasuma
Cobra
Cecilia
34
MENA Exploration
Sana’a Office
Dubai Office
Block 3
Block 7
Tajerouine
Le Kef
Area 18
Bina Bawi
Shakal
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FinancialOverview
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~US$600 million in cash following receipt of MENA asset sale funds. No debt
Refinancing of 5 year US$ oil facility in final stages:Very positive response from bank market with competitive offers for more than twice the amount soughtFacility size increased by US$50 million to US$450 millionPricing and facility terms more favourable than those on the facility it is replacingAlmost half the facility provided without political risk insurance – strong endorsement for PNG
With cash and finance facility, liquidity is >US$1bn
No oil hedging undertaken during first half of year or currently in place
Treasury Update
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Summary
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Gas set to dominateportfolio over time
Substantial unrealised value exists within Oil Search’s current asset portfolio (particularly PNG gas)
Current share price discounts assessed PNG LNG value and reflects no value for further gas developments or any oil exploration success
Value calibration anticipated from:
PNG LNG: Key milestones reached (LNG HOA’s, early works) Progress on demonstrating value growth options (exploration and appraisal programme, agreements etc.)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Value
Cash
Fourth Train
Third Train
PNG LNG
Oil
NPV Over Time (Unrisked)
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Summary
PNG LNG Project and commercialising remaining gas will drive Company value. Rising NPV over time, as cash flows get closer and Project de-risks
Core PNG oil business remains robust, with stable production and cost outlook, provides cash flows to support LNG and other development options
Exploration activities wound back from 2007 high levels, but material prospects still to be drilled in both PNG and MENA
AGL asset sale provides industry value benchmark, with partial value see-through. May provide opportunity to increase PNG LNG interest, but only in the right circumstances – series of gates for decision-making
Considerable upside value in existing asset base still to be recognised by market
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O I L S E A R C H L I M I T E D