good overall performance first quarter results 2003 28 april 2003

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Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

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Page 1: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

Good Overall PerformanceFirst Quarter Results 2003

28 April 2003

Page 2: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 2

Table of Content

Operating Performance 4

Asset Quality and Capital 13

Recent Developments 16

Outlook 19

Appendices 21

Page 3: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 3

Good overall performance

Revenues stable (+0.6%), underpinned by diversity of income stream

Strict cost control kept expenses flat (-0.3%)

Continued strong operating result (+2.6%)

Overall provisions lower (-10.7%)

Net profit slightly up (+0.7%)

For the sixth consecutive quarter, improvement of efficiency ratio (68.3%)

Tier 1 ratio marginally lower at 7.40%

Page 4: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

Operating Performance

Page 5: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

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Good overall performance

Revenues stable, underpinned by the diversity of income stream

Operating expenses remained flat

Operating result up against the backdrop of the strongest operating performance in history in Q4

Commissions 22.6%

Interest49.6%

Trading9.9%

Other 17.9%

Revenues Q1 2003% change

(EUR mln) Q1 03 Q4 02Q1 03/Q4 02

Q1 03/Q1 02

Revenues 4,517 4,489 0.6 (4.8)

Expenses 3,085 3,093 (0.3) (9.2)

Operating result 1,432 1,396 2.6 6.2

Efficiency ratio 68.3% 68.9%

Page 6: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

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Record operating performance in C&CC

Revenue growth achieved on the back of continued high mortgage production in the US and robust growth in Brazil

Sustained focus on cost control pays off across geographies

Efficiency ratio improves substantially

Netherlands32.2%

RoW8.3%

US46.3%

Brazil13.2%

Revenues Q1 2003% change

(EUR mln) Q1 03 Q4 02Q1 03/Q4 02

Q1 03/Q1 02

Revenues 2,732 2,600 5.1 0.9

Expenses 1,570 1,668 (5.9) (9.9)

Operating result 1,162 932 24.7 20.5

Efficiency ratio 57.5% 64.2%

Page 7: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

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Flat expenses in BU NL despite pension and refurbishment costs

Adjusted for the transfer of RWA, net interest revenue were stable despite a weakening economic environment

Staff costs trend down, offsetting higher pension and refurbishment costs

Overall FTE and branch closure objectives of the restructuring programme achieved

Revenues Q1 2003% change

(EUR mln) Q1 03 Q4 02Q1 03/Q4 02

Q1 03/Q1 02

Revenues 880 814 8.1 18.1

Expenses 643 634 1.4 5.9

Operating result 237 180 31.7 71.7

Efficiency ratio 73.1% 77.9%

Commissions 16.8%

Trading1.0%

Other 14.3%

Interest67.9%

Page 8: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 8

Continued mortgage refinancing strength in BU US

Strong revenue growth led by sustained mortgage production

Modest, yet encouraging growth in the commercial banking activities

No increase in operating expenses despite growth in mortgage production

Operating result substantially up

Revenues Q1 2003% change

(EUR mln) Q1 03 Q4 02Q1 03/Q4 02

Q1 03/Q1 02

Revenues 1,265 1,132 11.7 7.3

Expenses 559 594 (5.9) (10.7)

Operating result 706 538 31.2 27.7

Efficiency ratio 44.2% 52.5%

Commissions 12.3%

Interest48.1%

Trading3.2%

Other 36.4%

Page 9: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

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Brazil resumes its growth path

Revenues driven by interest rate related gains and volume growth in retail banking

Expenses, in particular staff costs, substantially lower due to tight cost management

Significant improvement of the efficiency ratio

Commissions 11.4%

Interest74.2%

Other 7.5%

Trading6.9%

Revenues Q1 2003% change

(EUR mln) Q1 03 Q4 02Q1 03/Q4 02

Q1 03/Q1 02

Revenues 361 346 4.3 (32.6)

Expenses 227 257 (11.7) (36.1)

Operating result 134 89 50.6 (26.0)

Efficiency ratio 62.9% 74.3%

Page 10: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

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WCS performance affected by poor trading results

Improvement in market shares in key franchises

Client related revenues in FM and flow income remained resilient. However, not enough to offset decline in revenues due to lower market driven revenues and lower equity sales and trading results

Expenses further down, despite restructuring costs of EUR 38 mln

First quarter results are not indicative of full year run rate

Other 2.9%Trading

24.9%Interest37.5%

Commissions 34.7%

Revenues Q1 2003% change

(EUR mln) Q1 03 Q4 02Q1 03/Q4 02

Q1 03/Q1 02

Revenues 1,145 1,270 (9.8) (17.3)

Expenses 1,031 1,051 (1.9) (18.4)

Operating result 114 219 (47.9) (5.8)

Efficiency ratio 90.0% 82.8%

Page 11: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 11

PCAM affected by restructuring costs and difficult markets

PC revenues slightly up due to rise in net interest revenue and other revenue as result of higher transaction volumes. Increase in operating expenses primarily driven by restructuring costs in France

AM revenues primarily affected by reduced level of AuM. Continued tight cost control results in fall of operating expenses

Commissions 62.9%

Interest29.1%

Other 4.9%

Trading3.1%

Revenues Q1 2003

Page 12: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

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Restructuring in France across all SBU’s

ABN AMRO started formal discussions with the Workers Council to implement a restructuring plan across all SBU’s in France in January

Early March, the Workers Council provided its advise. Discussions on the details of the social plan are expected to be finalised soon

The social impact is estimated to exceed 400 FTE’s, most of whom are expected to leave under a voluntary departure scheme

Total restructuring costs amount to EUR 75 mln in Q1

Page 13: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

Asset Quality and Capital

Page 14: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 14

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03

C&CC WCS ABN AMRO

Overall provisions lower

Provisioning substantially lower despite increase in Brazil, The Netherlands and WCS

Overall quality of the portfolio is satisfactory

Asset quality of C&CC portfolio remains stable

Weighted average UCR for WCS continues to be investment grade despite higher provisions in integrated energy sector

Annualised provisions / RWA (%)

Page 15: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 15

Tier 1 ratio marginally lower

Tier 1 ratio essentially unchanged primarily due to goodwill charge. Total capital ratio affected by increase of stake in Banca Antonveneta

Risk-weighted assets up in line with guidance, mainly due to increase in WCS following sharp decrease in 2002

The gearing ratio decreased for the fourth consecutive quarter to 33.0%

(EUR bln) 31 12 02 31 03 0231 03 03/ 31 12 02

% change31 03 03/31 03 02

Total assetsShareholders’ equityGroup capitalRisk-weighted assets

Tier 1 ratioTotal capital ratio

556.011.0830.4

229.6

7.48%11.54%

623.612.0734.0

270.7

7.13%10.95%

7.44.31.31.5

(4.2)4.2

(9.4)(13.9)

31 03 03

597.111.5630.8

233.0

7.40%11.03%

Page 16: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

Recent Developments

Page 17: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 17

Banco Sudameris acquisition strengthens Brazilian franchise

Acquisition of a 94.57% stake from Banca Intesa to strengthen the position in the south-eastern region of Brazil

Total consideration will be fully locally funded:– BRL 527 mln in cash

– BRL 1,766 mln in shares of Banco ABN AMRO Real (“AAR”)

Banca Intesa will have the right to swap the AAR shares in shares of ABN AMRO Holding N.V. in up to three installments, starting three years from closing

ABN AMRO will have the right to call Intesa’s shares at anytime, up to five years from closing

Page 18: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

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Impact on Tier 1 is negligible

Value of the call equals value of the put and amounts to the book value of AAR multiplied by 1.8

Total goodwill, excluding integration costs, is expected to be in the region of BRL 1,100 mln

Operating synergies are expected in excess of BRL 300 mln per annum as of 2005

Tier 1 impact is negligible

The proposed transaction will not have any dilutive impact on the earnings per share

Page 19: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

Outlook

Page 20: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 20

No outlook for 2003

“The general direction and the impact of the geo-political developments on the global economy are not clear. Although we are confident about our operational performance, it is difficult to be optimistic about the general state of the global economy. We will therefore continue to refrain from giving an outlook for the year at this point in time.”

Page 21: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

AppendicesFirst Quarter Results 2003

Page 22: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 22

Appendices: table of contents

Details on WCS Operating Performance 23

Currency Variations 27

Cross Border and Sovereign Risk 31

Asset Quality and Provisioning 35

Asset Quality and Provisioning in WCS 38

Asset Quality and Provisioning in C&CC 45

Page 23: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

Details on WCS Operating Performance

Page 24: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 24

Client Performance

Overall client revenues for WCS are EUR 987 mln, representing 86% of WCS revenues

The revenue contribution of our Priority and Key clients represents 57% of total client revenues

WCS Revenues(EUR 1,145 mln in Q1 2003)

Revenues by Client(EUR 987 mln in Q1 2003)

Priority & Key Revenues by Client(EUR 563 mln in Q1 2003)

Other 14%

Client segments

86%

Integrated Energy

17%

Country Coverage

18%

TMTH15%

FIPS43%

Consumer7%Integrated

Energy15%Country

Coverage20%

TMTH12%

FIPS45%

Consumer8%

Page 25: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

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Product Performance

Most important revenue contributor is Financial Markets

Priority and Key clients contributing 49% of total product revenue

Revenues by Product(EUR 1,145 mln in Q1 2003)

Priority & Key Revenues by Product(EUR 563 mln in Q1 2003)

Other1%

Working Capital26%

Equities & CF

16%

Financial Markets

57%Financial Markets

59%Equities &

CF17%

Working Capital20%

Other4%

Page 26: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 26

RWA Reductions by Product

Most important capital user is FM

Increase in Working Capital reflects the switch of business from FM

4Q02 (EUR 67.2 bln)

1Q03(EUR 71.0 bln)

Other7%

Working Capital

7%

Equity and CF4%

Financial Markets

82%

Financial Markets

79%

Equity and CF5%

Working Capital10%

Other 6%

Page 27: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

Currency Variations

Page 28: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 28

Impact of currency variations on Group performance

Revenues

Expenses

Operating result

Pre-tax profit

(53)

(61)

(8)

29

Reported change (%)

Currency impact(Eur mln)

Organic growth (%)

1.8

1.7

2.0

4.1

0.6

(0.3)

2.6

6.9

Q1 03 / Q4 02

Note: Reported change is the arithmetic sum of currency impact and organic growth. In this case, revenues were

negatively impacted by EUR 53 mln and costs were reduced by EUR 61 mln

Page 29: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 29

Reported change (%)

Currency impact(Eur mln)

Organic growth (%)

Q1 03 / Q4 02

Impact of currency variations on BU US performance

Revenues

Expenses

Operating result

Pre-tax profit

(87)

40

(47)

(41)

19.4

0.8

40.0

65.4

11.7

(5.9)

31.2

55.1

Note: Reported change is the arithmetic sum of currency impact and organic growth. Revenues were negatively impacted by EUR 87 mln and costs were increased by EUR 40 mln

Page 30: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 30

Impact of currency variations on BU Brazil performance

Revenues

Expenses

Operating result

Pre-tax profit

(13)

8

(5)

(4)

8.1

(8.6)

56.2

62.7

4.3

(11.7)

50.6

55.9

Note: Reported change is the arithmetic sum of currency impact and organic growth. Revenues were negatively impacted by EUR 13 mln and costs were increased by EUR 8 mln

Reported change (%)

Currency impact(Eur mln)

Organic growth (%)

Q1 03 / Q4 02

Page 31: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

Cross Border and Sovereign Risk

Page 32: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 32

Brazilian cross border risk is largely mitigated

Latin America: Brazil, Mexico and Chile are the largest contributors

Extensive use of risk mitigants is sought and achieved when dealing with Brazilian counterparts

Mitigated exposure includes trade deals, transactions covered by credit default swaps and political risk insurance

Total cross border exposure Excl. mitigated exposure

(EUR bln) Q1 03 Q4 02 Q1 03 Q4 02

Latin America 7.0 7.4 3.1 3.4

Brazil 3.6 3.7 0.8 0.9

Page 33: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 33

Significant reduction of the Government Bond Position

Brazilian Government Bond Position Booked Portfolios (Mar 2003)

Investment26.5%

Commercial59.9%

Trading13.6%

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Jun 02 Sep 02 Dec 02 Mar 03

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Floating or inf lation linked note Fixed rate noteCurrency linked note Real vs EURO (Jun2002=100%)

40% reduction since Jun 02vs

23% devaluation since Jun 02

Re

al

vs

Eu

ro I

nd

ex

re

du

cti

on

%

Bo

nd

Po

sit

ion

s i

n E

uro

mln

Page 34: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 34

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

102%

Dec 01 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03

68%

70%

72%

74%

76%

78%

Cross Border Reduction % Mitigated Exposure

Index reduction % % of total exposure

Cross Border Exposure - Brazil Mitigated Exposure Breakdown - Mar 2003)

Pre Export Finance

30%

Political Risk

Insurance7%

Co-Finance with

Multilaterals3%

Others8%

Trade Finance

52%

Increased mitigation of already reduced exposure

Page 35: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

Asset Quality and Provisioning

Page 36: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 36

WCS23%

C&CC70%

Other5%

PCAM2%

Private loans (EUR bn - by outstanding)

Private loans

0

50

100

150

200

Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03

Wholesale C&CC Private Other

March 2003March 2002 December 2002

PCAM3%

Other6%

C&CC70%

WCS21%

PCAM3%

Other6%

WCS21%

NL63%

Other3%

C&CC70%

Brazil2%

US32%

Page 37: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 37

Overview of total loan loss provisioning per SBU

Total ABN mainly includes Corporate Centre and Auto Lease Holland

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03

C&CC WCS ABN AMRO

1Q 2003 loan loss provisioning by SBUs

Loan loss provisioning per SBU (EUR mln) Annualised provisioning / average RWA

SBU YTD 01 YTD 02 1Q 02 4Q 02 1Q 03 YTD 01 YTD 02 1Q 02 4Q 02 1Q 03

C&CC 802 881 255 209 181 0.49% 0.58% 0.64% 0.56% 0.50%

WCS 543 742 111 145 156 0.57% 0.87% 0.47% 0.76% 0.88%

PCAM 13 13 1 11 3 0.21% 0.21% 0.06% 0.69% 0.15%

Total ABN 1,426 1,695 390 384 343 0.51% 0.66% 0.57% 0.63% 0.59%

Other2%

C&CC53%

WCS45%

Page 38: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

Asset Quality and Provisioning in WCS

Page 39: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 39

Commercial banks exposure includes commercial lines, money market and OBSI facilities.

Breakdown of Wholesale portfolio per client sector

Wholesale - Corporate portfolioWholesale - Total portfolio

Telecom, Media,

Technology, Health

8%

Other FI21%

Country Coverage

14%

Commercial Banks35%

Public Sector6%

Consumer6%

Integrated Energy

10%

Integrated Energy

26%Consumer16%

Country Coverage

37%

Telecom, Media,

Technology, Health21%

Page 40: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 40

Asia Pacific Advanced

6.5%

North America29.3%

Latin America3.3%

Eastern Europe0.4%

Africa0.5%

Europe 53.3%

Middle East0.9%

Asia5.8%

Geographic exposure calculated based on the country lending office of each counterparty

Wholesale Client base is predominantly OECD

Page 41: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 41

As a % of total limits of Wholesale Corporate portfolio which excludes FIPS

Wholesale corporate portfolio is well diversified

Tobacco0.9%

Leisure0.7%(Non) durables

6.0%

Food5.9%

Services3.7%

Manufacturing (general)8.0%

Real estate1.4%

Agri/raw materials1.3%

Construction4.5%

Transport services6.8%

Manuf other transport means1.7%

Automotive (oem + supply)9.5%

Metals & mining3.2%

Chemicals5.0%

Utilities9.3%

Oil & gas8.7%

Health/pharma3.8%

Retail1.5%

Technology6.4%

Media4.2%

Telecom7.6%

Page 42: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 42

Stabilization of exposure after significant reduction

Sector breakdown of wholesale portfolio - Total limits

-28.9%-30.2%

-22.8%

-24.6%

-26.9%

TMTH Integrated Energy Country Coverage Consumer Total

Mar.02 Dec.02 Mar.03

Page 43: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 43

Average UCR of Wholesale Client sectors

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

Q4 01 Q1 02 Q2 02 Q3 02 Q4 02

TMTH Integrated Energy

Country Coverage Consumer

WCS Corporate Portfolio

Average UCRs - Historical performance Average UCRs

Dedicated Task Force has substantially brought down the integrated energy exposure

Page 44: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 44

Asset quality of Wholesale Client sectors

Country Coverage Integrated Energy

Consumer

Wholesale corporate portfolio

(33% of WCS corp. portfolio) (26% of WCS corp. portfolio)

(15% of WCS corp. portfolio)

TMTH

(22% of WCS corp. portfolio)

UCR1,2,379%

UCR>=421%

UCR>=422%

UCR1,2,378%

UCR1,2,378%

UCR>=422%

UCR>=419%

UCR1,2,381%

UCR1,2,384%

UCR>=416%

80% 80% 79%

20.0% 20.0% 21.0%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q4 01 Q3 02 Q4 02

UCR1,2,3 UCR>=4

Page 45: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

Asset Quality and Provisioning in C&CC

Page 46: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 46

Overview of the C&CC consumer and commercial franchise

Numbers may not add up due to rounding.

C&CC Total Private Loans (EUR bln)

Mar 03 Netherlands N. America Brazil Rest of World Dec 02 Mar 02

Commercial 70.3 30.1 34.8 1.4 4.0 70.0 77.8Consumer 102.0 77.8 19.6 2.6 2.0 102.5 103.0Total Private Loans 172.3 107.9 54.4 4.0 6.0 172.5 180.8

Brazil2%

Rest of World3%

North America

32%Netherlands

63%

Commercial41%

Consumer59%

Page 47: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 47

C&CC loan loss provisions - stable performance despite market conditions

Brazil22%

Other8%

USA54%

Netherlands16%

1Q 2003 loan loss provision by Geography

Loan loss provisioning per SBU (EUR mln) Annualised provisioning / average RWA

SBU YTD 01 YTD 02 1Q 02 4Q 02 1Q 03 YTD 01 YTD 02 1Q 02 4Q 02 1Q 03

Netherlands 108 137 54 28 51 0.20% 0.25% 0.39% 0.21% 0.40%

USA 442 477 121 139 87 0.60% 0.77% 0.67% 0.89% 0.56%

Brazil 193 193 59 30 42 2.32% 3.22% 2.48% 2.00% 2.75%

Other 59 74 21 12 1 0.27% 0.34% 0.39% 0.22% 0.05%

Total C&CC 802 881 255 209 181 0.51% 0.58% 0.64% 0.56% 0.50%

Total ABN 1,426 1,695 390 384 343 0.52% 0.66% 0.58% 0.63% 0.59%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

Q1 01 Q2 01 Q3 01 Q4 01 Q1 02 Q2 02 Q3 02 Q4 02 Q1 03Netherlands USA BrazilOther Total C&CC

Page 48: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 48

Overview of the commercial portfolio of BU NL

Commercial28%

Consumer72%

Corporate Clients52%

SME48% UCR 1, 2 and

349%

UCR >= 450%

Not rated1%

C&CC NL commercial portfolio by product C&CC NL commercial portfolio by UCR

C&CC NL total portfolio

Page 49: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 49

Overview of the portfolio of BU US

C&CC - Asset quality

Business mix

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03

UC

R P

erce

nta

ge

UCR 1, 2, and 3 UCR >= 4

Individual1%

Other4%

Resid. Mortgage

44%

Commercial51%

Page 50: Good Overall Performance First Quarter Results 2003 28 April 2003

0 50

Overview of the portfolios of BU Brazil

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Mar.02 Dec.02 Mar.03

UCR 1/2/3 UCR >=4 Not rated

UC

R %

UCR 1/2/362%

UCR >=432%

Not rated6%

Middle Corp19%

Retail36%

Car Financ.

45%

C&CC - Asset quality

Business mix UCR breakdown