google - measuring search's impact
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Marketing Effectiveness in the Data AgeTRANSCRIPT
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Measuring Search’s Impact
Google Confidential and Proprietary
Measuring Search’s Impact
Mark Riseley
Research Manager, Google EMEA
Presented on 3rd November 2011 at
“What works now - Marketing Effectiveness in the Data Age”
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Google Confidential and Proprietary
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Google Confidential and Proprietary
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Google Confidential and Proprietary
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Harry Potter
Google Confidential and Proprietary
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Google Confidential and Proprietary
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Google Confidential and Proprietary
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A search is an expression of interest
Google Confidential and Proprietary
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Search works as a pull medium
TV Radio PrintOnline
display
PUSH
Google Confidential and Proprietary
Search
PULL
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And offline media drive people to search
Google Confidential and Proprietary 10
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Researching Search is Hard
Google Confidential and Proprietary 11
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How to measure the value of search
ExperimentsTracking ModellingSurveys
Google Confidential and Proprietary
Consumer insights + Attribution of sales
Prove incremental impact of search ads
Influence of search and other drivers on traffic / sales
Consumer insights
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How to measure the value of search
ExperimentsTracking ModellingSurveys
Google Confidential and Proprietary
Consumer insights + Attribution of sales
Clickstream analysis
Unique phone numbers
Coupons
Check & reserve analytics
Prove incremental impact of search ads
Pre-post tests
Regional split tests
Panel split tests
Cookie split tests
Cross media optimization studies
Influence of search and other drivers on traffic / sales
Econometrics
Consumer insights
Shopper surveys
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Quantify the role of the internet in
buying television equipment in store1
Identify the differences between those that
do and don’t use the web in the purchase
process
2
POS Recruited Shopper Survey Approach
Objectives
Understand purchase process of online
researcher3
Google Confidential and Proprietary
Methodology
357 offline TV purchasers @ Fnac
recruited via contest entry at point of
purchase (in store)
1
Follow up telephone interview then
conducted 10 days after purchase2
researcher3
Source: FNAC Spain / Google 2010
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52%
Quantifying online to store activity
Google Confidential and Proprietary 15
52%
52% of those buying a TV offline in-store at Fnac had
previously used the internet for research
WWW
Source: FNAC Spain / Google 2010
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€526
+33%
Store Basket size higher for online researchers
€701Amount Spent
Google Confidential and Proprietary
16
+33%
RESEARCHED ONLINE
DID NOT RESEARCH
ONLINE
Those researching online
spend on average 33% more
than those that do not
Source: FNAC Spain / Google 2010
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ABN Amro Contact Centre
Closing of contract or request
for final contract documents
Product page of ABN Amro
Display of special hotline
telephone number for users
arriving via AdWords
Google AdWords:
Search for car insurance
product, e.g.
“Autoverzekering”
Unique phone number tracking methodology
Google Confidential and Proprietary 1717
ABN Amro:
Online closing of contract
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Example Results: ABN Amro Netherlands
Car Insurance Contracts through AdWords
Indexed Figures
254%250%
300%
350%
400%
250%
300%
350%
400%
Credit Card Contracts through AdWords
Google Confidential and Proprietary 18Source: ABN Amro 2010
100%
254%
354%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Online Contact Centre Online + Contact Centre
100%
14%
114%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Online Contact Centre Online + Contact Centre
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Research Challenge: Finding Matched Test & Control Groups
Test Control
Total audience
Google Confidential and Proprietary 19
Test Control
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Geo-targeted experiment methodology
Google Confidential and Proprietary 20Source: Vodafone, APT, Google (2010)
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Example results: Vodafone UK
Google Confidential and Proprietary 21Source: Vodafone, APT, Google (2010)
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Econometric modelling methodology
4000
5000
6000
Lapto
p S
ale
s (
Unit)
Modeled
Actual
Google Confidential and Proprietary 22
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
20-M
ay-0
7
20-Jun-0
7
20-Jul-07
20-A
ug-
07
20-S
ep-0
7
20-O
ct-0
7
20-N
ov-0
7
20-D
ec-0
7
20-Jan
-08
20-F
eb-0
8
20-M
ar-0
8
20-A
pr-08
20-M
ay-0
8
20-Jun-0
8
20-Jul-08
20-A
ug-
08
20-S
ep-0
8
20-O
ct-0
8
20-N
ov-0
8
20-D
ec-0
8
20-Jan
-09
20-F
eb-0
9
20-M
ar-0
9
20-A
pr-09
20-M
ay-0
9
20-Jun-0
9
20-Jul-09
20-A
ug-
09
20-S
ep-0
9
20-O
ct-0
9
20-N
ov-0
9
20-D
ec-0
9
20-Jan
-10
20-F
eb-1
0
Lapto
p S
ale
s (
Unit)
Source: Marketshare / PC City (Spain)
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Search query data can tease out external effects: category seasonality
Google Confidential and Proprietary
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Search query data can tease out external effects: product launches
Google Confidential and Proprietary
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Search query data can tease out external effects: competition
Google Confidential and Proprietary
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Mapping sales drivers
Holiday
Store Refurbishment
Traditional Media
Online Display
SEM (Paid Search) Email
Online
Search
Online world Offline worldBusiness
Outcome
+ Driver
- Driver
Width of line
indicates size
of driver
Google Confidential and Proprietary 26
Offline Sales
Online
Sales
Rainfall
Sporting Events
Competitive Media
Web traffic
Display
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Price, Base Sales & Seasonality
Short term Promo days
Source: Marketshare / PC City (Spain)
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4,100
4,200
4,300
4,400
4,500
4,600
4,700
4,800
- 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000
We
ek
ly S
ale
s (
Un
its
)
Increase spend in
Econometrics helps optimize media mix
Optimal spend
Historical spend
4,400
4,500
4,600
4,700
4,800
- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
We
ek
ly S
ale
s (
Un
its
)
Historical spend
Optimal spend
catalogues Paid search
Increase spend in
Google Confidential and Proprietary
- 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000
Weekly Media Spend €
4,300
4,400
4,500
4,600
4,700
4,800
- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
We
ek
lyS
ale
s (
Un
its)
Weekly Media Spend €
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4,100
4,200
4,300
4,400
4,500
4,600
4,700
4,800
- 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000
We
ek
ly S
ale
s (
Un
its
)
Weekly Media Spend €
Historical spend
Optimal spend
Historical spend
Optimal spend
- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
Weekly Media Spend €
TVPress
Increase spend inDecrease spend in
Source: Marketshare / PC City (Spain)
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Search query trends can have predictive power
Google Confidential and Proprietary 28
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Bank of England nowcasting with search data
Google Confidential and Proprietary 29
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You can do this yourself...
Google Confidential and Proprietary 30
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You can do this yourself...
Google Confidential and Proprietary 31
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Conclusions
• Researching search is hard because it’s a pull medium, so established methods don’t always apply
• Tracking and surveys can generate useful consumer insights around search and the online to offline effect
• Experiments and econometrics can be used to establish the lift and true ROI of search activity
Google Confidential and Proprietary
true ROI of search activity
• Search query trends can be used to represent external factors such as seasonality, competition and product launches in models, and has predictive power
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