government securities management - kementerian … · 2016-08-10 · benchmark series 2016 notes:...
TRANSCRIPT
DIRECTORATE OF GOVERNMENT DEBT SECURITIES
DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF BUDGET FINANCING AND RISK MANAGEMENT
MINISTRY OF FINANCE OF THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA
GOVERNMENT SECURITIES
MANAGEMENT
AUGUST 10, 2016
OUTLINE
2
1. Government Securities Financing Strategy 2016
2. Government Securities Performance
3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization
Framework
4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile
DISCLAIMER: This presentation does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire securities of the Republic in any jurisdiction or as an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this presentation, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. This presentation is not and should not be construed as financial, legal, tax, investment or other product advice.
Directorate of Government Debt Securities| Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management| Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
GOVERNMENT SECURITIES
FINANCING STRATEGY 2016
Directorate of Government Debt Securities| Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management| Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
FINANCING TREND, 2005 – 2016
(trillion IDR)
Notes: *Budget Realization 2015 **Revised Budget 2016
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016**
Gov't Securities (Net) 22.6 36.0 57.2 85.9 99.5 91.1 119.9 159.7 224.7 264.6 362.3 364.9
Domestic Loan (Net) - - - - - 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.7 3.4
Foreign Loan (Net) (10.3) (26.6) (26.6) (18.4) (12.4) (4.6) (17.8) (23.5) (5.8) (12.4) 10.4 2.5
Others/Non Debt (Net) (1.2) 20.0 9.1 16.6 25.5 4.6 28.3 38.1 18.1 (4.3) (55.2) (69.0)
Budget Deficit, % of GDP 0.5 0.9 1.3 0.1 1.6 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.35
0.5
0.9
1.3
0.1
1.6
0.7
1.1
1.8
2.3 2.3
2.5
2.35
(0.5)
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
-80
-30
20
70
120
170
220
270
320
370
4
Directorate of Government Debt Securities| Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management| Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
GENERAL DEBT FINANCING STRATEGY
FOR 2016
DEBT POLICY IN 2016 BUDGET
1. Manageable Debt-to-GDP
ratio 2. Financial inclusion &
market deepening
3. Debt issuance for productive
activity 4. Selective
external loan (infrastructure
and energy sector)
5. Loan as an alternative instrument
for financing
6. Active debt
management and ALM
5
Directorate of Government Debt Securities| Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management| Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
GOVERNMENT BUDGET FOR 2016
Revised Budget Macro Assumptions
• Economic Growth: 5,2% • Inflation: 4,0% • Exchange Rate:
Rp13,500/USD • 3-Month Govt. Treasury Bills:
5,5% • ICP: USD40/barrel • Oil Lifting: 820 thousand
barrels/day • Gas Lifting: 1.150 thousand
barrels of oil equivalent per day
Description Budget (Baseline) Revised BudgetA. Total Revenue 1,822.5 1,786.2
I. Domestic Revenue 1,820.5 1,784.2
1. Taxation 1,546.7 1,539.2
2. Non-Taxation 273.8 245.1
II. Grant 2.0 2.0
B. Government Spending 2,095.7 2,082.9
I. Central Government Spending 1,325.6 1,306.7
1. Ministerial Spending 784.1 767.8
2. Non-Ministerial Spending 541.4 538.9
II. Transfer to Region and Village Fund 770.2 776.2
C. Primary Balance (88.2) (105.5)
D. Budget Deficit over GDP (%) (273.2) (296.7)
Deficit to GDP (2.15%) (2.35%)
E. Financing 273.2 296.7
I. Domestic 272.8 299.2
a. Banks 5.5 25.4
b. Non-Banks 267.3 273.9
• Government Securities 327.2 364.9
• Capital Injection 65.2
II. Foreign (Net) 0.4 (2.5)
6
Description Budget (Baseline) Revised BudgetA. Total Revenue 1,822.5 1,786.2
I. Domestic Revenue 1,820.5 1,784.2
1. Taxation 1,546.7 1,539.2
2. Non-Taxation 273.8 245.1
II. Grant 2.0 2.0
B. Government Spending 2,095.7 2,082.9
I. Central Government Spending 1,325.6 1,306.7
1. Ministerial Spending 784.1 767.8
2. Non-Ministerial Spending 541.4 538.9
II. Transfer to Region and Village Fund 770.2 776.2
C. Primary Balance (88.2) (105.5)
D. Budget Deficit over GDP (%) (273.2) (296.7)
Deficit to GDP (2.15%) (2.35%)
E. Financing 273.2 296.7
I. Domestic 272.8 299.2
a. Banks 5.5 25.4
b. Non-Banks 267.3 273.9
• Government Securities 327.2 364.9
• Capital Injection 65.2
II. Foreign (Net) 0.4 (2.5)
Directorate of Government Debt Securities| Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management| Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
GOVERNMENT SECURITIES – INDICATIVE FINANCING
PLAN FOR 2016
International Bonds Issuance (USD, EUR, JPY-denominated)
Issuance of International Bonds as complement to avoid crowding out in domestic market and provide benchmark for corporate issuance, consists of USD, YEN or EURO global bonds;
Maximum issuance international bond 27% from target gross.
Government Debt Securities (SUN): 73 %; Sukuk : 27% ATM for Government Securities (SBN): 9-11 years.
Domestic Issuance
Issuance targets for GDS, Sukuk and ATM target
Weekly Auction: Conventional Securities: 23 x Islamic Securities: 23x
Non-Auction: Retail bonds: SR (Q1), SBR (Q2), Sukuk Tabungan (Q3),
and ORI (Q4) Private Placements: Based on request
Series Coupon Maturity
FR0053 8,250% July 15, 2021
FR0056 8,375% September 15, 2026
FR0073 8,750% May 15, 2031
FR0072 8,250% May 15, 2036
Benchmark Series 2016
Notes: USD/IDR: 13,500 1. SBR: “Saving Bond Ritel” or Retail Savings Bond 2. Sukuk Tabungan means Sukuk Savings Bond 3. ORI: “Obligasi Ritel Indonesia” or Indonesian Retail Bond
Instruments Indicative Target (IDR tn)
2016 R-Budget
Government Securities (Net) 364,867
Redemption 215,089
Cash Management 28,447
Buyback 3,000
Gov’t Securities Conversion 573
Government Securities (Gross) 611,403
Composition
Domestic 77%
Auction 58%
Non-Auction 18%
International Bond 23%
7
Directorate of Government Debt Securities| Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management| Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
2016 SECURITIES FINANCING REALIZATION
(In Million IDR)
8
Budget 2016Revised Budget
2016
Revised Budget
Realization
(a.o. August 10,
2016)
% Realization to
Revised Budget
2016
Government Securities Net 327,224,357 364,866,887 332,061,542 91.01%
Government Securities Maturing in 2016 and Buyback 228,499,399 246,535,735 175,358,690 71.13%
Issuance Need for 2016 555,723,756 611,402,622 511,464,232 83.65%
Government Debt Securities (GDS) 358,395,702
Domestic GDS 249,356,982
-Coupon GDS 174,200,000
-Conventional T-Bills 39,340,000
-Private Placement* 31,897,977
-Retail Bonds 3,919,005
International Bonds 109,038,720
-USD GMTN 48,643,000
-Euro GMTN 44,975,610
-Samurai Bonds 12,760,910
-Domestic USD Bonds 2,659,200
Government Islamic Debt Securities 153,068,530
Domestic Government Islamic Debt Securities 119,661,030
- IFR/PBS/T-Bills Sukuk (Islamic Fixed Rated
Bond/Project Based Sukuk) 85,361,030
- Retail Sukuk 31,500,000
- Private Placement 2,800,000
Global Sukuk 33,407,500
*Including the issuance of Government Securities Conversion and IDR3.744 T issuance that will be settled on Aug. 12, 2016
- Issuance Government Securities Conversion 572,581 572,581
- Matured Government Securities Conversion 572,581 360,814
Nett Issuance Government Securities Conversion - 211,767
GOVERNMENT SECURITIES
PERFORMANCE
Directorate of Government Debt Securities| Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management| Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 2-Aug-16
Incoming Bids Awarded Bids % Bid to Cover Ratio (RHS) % Foreign Incoming Bids (RHS)
10
as of Aug 2, 2016
Average awarded bids
2016 = Rp14.24T/auction
Average Incoming Bid 2015 = Rp20.84T while Average Awarded Bid 2015 = Rp10.59T
Average incoming bids
2016 = Rp27.49T/auction
GDS PRIMARY MARKET PERFORMANCE 2016
10
THROUGH AUCTION
Directorate of Government Debt Securities| Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management| Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 9-Aug-16
Incoming Bids Awarded Bids % Bid to Cover Ratio (RHS) % Foreign Incoming Bids (RHS)
11
as of Aug 9, 2016
Average Incoming Bid
2016 = Rp20.34T
Average Awarded bids
2016 = Rp9.81T
GS PRIMARY MARKET PERFORMANCE 2016
Average Incoming Bid 2015 = Rp14.05T, while Average Awarded Bid 2015 = Rp6.75T
11
THROUGH AUCTION
Directorate of Government Debt Securities| Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management| Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
PRIMARY MARKET PERFORMANCE EURO BONDS 2016
Summary Terms of Offering RIEUR0623 RIEUR0628
Issuer
Issuer Ratings
Issue Ratings
Issue
Size EUR1,500,000,000 EUR1,500,000,000
Pricing / Settlement Date
Maturity June 14, 2023 June 14, 2028
Coupon 2.625% payable annually 3.75% payable annually
Reoffer Yield / Price 2.772% / 99.076% 3.906% / 98.528%
Format
Listing
Total Book Order EUR4.23 billion EUR4.13 billion
Distribution Indonesia 11%, Asia 10%, Europe 58%, USA 21% Indonesia 2%, Asia 10%, Europe 49%, USA 39%
Investor TypeBanks 21%, Asset Managers 67%, Central Bank and
Sovereign Wealth Fund 7%, Insurance and others 5%
Banks 5%, Asset Managers 76%, Central Bank and
Sovereign Wealth Fund 10%, Insurance and others 9%
EUR fixed rate
June 7, 2016 / June 14, 2016
Republic of Indonesia
Baa3 Stable (Moody’s), BB+ Positive (S&P), BBB- Stable (Fitch)
Rule 144A / Reg S
SGX-ST, Frankfurt Open Market
Baa3 (Moody’s), BB+ (S&P), BBB- (Fitch)
12
Directorate of Government Debt Securities| Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management| Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
PRIMARY MARKET PERFORMANCE SAMURAI BONDS 2016
Summary Terms of Offering RIJPY0619 RIJPY0621
Issuer
Issue Ratings
Issue
Size JPY62,000,000,000 JPY38,000,000,000
Pricing / Settlement Date
Maturity June 21, 2019 June 21, 2021
Coupon 0.83% payable semi annually 1.16% payable semi annually
Reoffer Yield / Price 0.83% / 100% 1.16% / 100%
Spread over US Treasury 95 bps over JP 3yr Swap 125 bps over JP 5yr Swap
Yen swap rate -0.12% -0.09%
Total Book Order JPY62,000,000,000 JPY38,000,000,000
Distribution Asia 100% Asia 100%
Investor TypeCity Banks (10.5%), Public Funds (25.0%), Life Insurers
(4.8%), Asset Managers (11.3%), Regional Banks (4.8%),
Shinkin Banks (3.6%) and others (40.0%)
City Banks (52.6%), Public Funds (25.8%), Regional
Banks (9.2%), Shinkin Banks (2.6%) and others (9.8%)
June 15, 2016 / June 21, 2016
Republic of Indonesia
Baa3(Moody's) / BBB- (Fitch) / BBB- (R&I)
JPY fixed rate
13
Directorate of Government Debt Securities| Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management| Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Aug'1
0
Nov'1
0
Feb'1
1
May'1
1
Aug'1
1
Nov'1
1
Feb'1
2
May'1
2
Aug'1
2
Nov'1
2
Feb'1
3
May'1
3
Aug'1
3
Nov'1
3
Feb'1
4
May'1
4
Aug'1
4
Nov'1
4
Feb'1
5
May'1
5
Aug'1
5
Nov'1
5
Feb'1
6
May'1
6
Aug'1
6
5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y
6.62 (5Y), 6.82 (10Y), 7.19 (15Y), 7.30 (20Y)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Spread (bid-ask)
4.39 5.88 5.73 5.31 7.91 9.38 8.26 9.90 11.21 9.74 8.24 8.97 10.08 11.85
0.22 0.16 0.38 0.41
0.76 0.72
0.33 0.09
0.18 0.14
0.31 0.75
0.69 0.77
0.34
1.54 3.07 6.30
8.80
10.15
16.48
18.88
22.70 22.75
16.59
11.44
16.62
21.79
-
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
OUTRIGHT REPO BANK REPO BI
5.12
7.04
5.15
14.12 12.88
10.75 10.4511.40
-
3.00
6.00
9.00
12.00
15.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
As of August 9, 2016
[In Percentage]
Average Daily Trading Yields of Benchmark Series
Bid Ask Spread 10 Y Government Bond Turn Over 10 Y Government Bond
As of August 8, 2016
SECONDARY MARKET PERFORMANCE
Spread 6.815 bps
(ask 6.787 bid 6.843
As of August 9, 2016
14
Directorate of Government Debt Securities| Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management| Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
• Market Watch as of August 10, 2016
• Source: Asian Bonds Online
YIELD GOVT BONDS ON PEER’S MARKET
Source: IDMA, Bloomberg, as of August 8, 2016
LCY 10 Year
Government
Bonds
Latest Yield YTD Change (BP) MTD
Change (BP)
HK 0.944 -63.5 -5.2
ID 6.869 -187.6 -6.6
JP -0.039 -30.4 +15.1
KR 1.435 -65.0 +5.3
MY 3.640 -54.6 +5.4
PH 3.240 -86.0 -9.9
SG 1.838 -76.0 +3.1
TH 2.041 -45.9 -1.6
US 1.592 -67.7 +13.9
VN 6.990 -18.5 +0.7
15
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 30Y
9 Aug '16 2 Aug '16 11 Jul '16 9 Feb '12
23 Sep '11 27 Oct '08 13 Sep'05
[in percentage]
Directorate of Government Debt Securities| Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management| Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
OWNERSHIP OF TRADABLE DOMESTIC
GOVERNMENT SECURITIES (in trillion IDR)
1) Non Resident consists of Private Bank, Fund/Asset Manager, Securities Company, Insurance Company, and Pension Fund.
2) Others such as Securities Company, Corporation, and Foundation.
*) Including the Government Securities used in monetary operation with Bank Indonesia.
**) net, excluding Government Securities used in monetary operation with Banks.
16
Description
Banks* 299.66 36.73% 335.43 33.70% 375.55 23.95% 442.76 29.81% 462.62 28.70% 470.58 28.12% 474.42 28.09%
Govt Institutions (Bank Indonesia**) - 0.00% 44.44 4.47% 41.63 10.19% 56.41 3.80% 54.37 3.37% 42.87 2.56% 45.20 2.68%
Bank Indonesia (gross) 150.18 10.11% 149.49 9.28% 147.97 8.84% 148.17 8.77%
GS use for Monetary Operation 93.77 6.31% 95.13 5.90% 105.10 6.28% 102.97 6.10%
Non-Banks 517.53 63.21% 615.38 61.83% 792.78 65.87% 985.99 66.39% 1094.70 67.92% 1159.80 69.31% 1169.12 69.23%
Mutual Funds 43.19 5.28% 42.50 4.27% 45.79 4.21% 61.48 4.14% 73.02 4.53% 77.92 4.66% 78.02 4.62%
Insurance Company 83.42 10.21% 129.55 13.02% 150.60 11.74% 173.26 11.67% 203.41 12.62% 213.43 12.76% 214.26 12.69%
Foreign Holders 270.52 32.98% 323.83 32.54% 461.35 38.21% 578.32 38.94% 626.17 38.85% 659.03 39.39% 666.42 39.46%
Foreign Govt's&Central Banks 50.06 6.13% 78.39 7.88% 103.42 7.55% 110.98 7.47% 112.49 6.98% 118.79 7.10% 117.47 6.96%
Pension Fund 56.46 6.91% 39.47 3.97% 43.30 3.41% 52.24 3.52% 57.41 3.56% 65.67 3.92% 66.29 3.93%
Individual 32.48 3.26% 30.41 2.91% 41.42 2.79% 49.19 3.05% 47.96 2.87% 47.88 2.84%
Others 63.64 7.79% 46.68 4.69% 60.51 5.37% 78.99 5.32% 85.50 5.31% 95.78 5.72% 96.24 5.70%
Total 817.19 100% 995.25 100% 1,209.96 100% 1,485.16 100% 1,611.69 100% 1,673.24 100% 1,688.74 100%
Jul-16 08-Aug-16Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Jan-16 Apr-16Dec-15
Directorate of Government Debt Securities| Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management| Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
33.96
13.08
12.56
11.80
72.28
3.44
1.62
11.04
16.58
(2.12)
16.32
41.81
100.51
15.85
5.44
17.02
(20) - 20 40 60 80 100 120
Banks*
Bank Indonesia**
Mutual Fund
Insurance Company
Foreign Holders
Pension Fund
Individual
Others
INV
ES
TO
R T
YP
E
July YTD 2016 July YTD 2015
17
LOCAL INSURANCE AND PENSION FUND INCREASED
THEIR GOVT SECURITIES PORTFOLIO SIGNIFICANTLY..
[In trillion IDR]
17
Directorate of Government Debt Securities| Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management| Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
FSA (OJK) Regulation No 1/POJK.05/2016 on Investment in Government Securities for Non-Bank Financial Institution
Life Insurance Company
Min. 20% of total investment ( by Dec.
31 2016).
Min 30% of total investment ( by Dec.
31 2017).
General Insurance, Reinsurance & Guarantee
Company
Min. 10% of total investment ( by Dec.
31 2016).
Min. 20% of total investment ( by Dec.
31 2017).
Employer Pension Fund
Min. 20% of total investment ( by Dec.
31 2016)
Min 30% of total investment ( by Dec.
31 2017).
BPJS Ketenagakerjaan (Workers Social Security
Agency)
Min. 50% of total investment of
Employment Social Security Fund (by Dec. 31 2016).
Min. 30% of total investment of BPJS Ketenagakerjaan (by
Dec. 31 2016)
BPJS Kesehatan (Healthcare Social Security Agency)
Min. 30% of total investment of BPJS Kesehatan (by Dec.
31 2016).
DOMESTIC INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS
18
Directorate of Government Debt Securities| Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management| Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
(1.76)
10.13
23.98
6.08
(0.37)
4.82
16.49 15.77 16.10
20.15
6.43
14.67 15.95
13.17 12.49
21.34
(19.84)
39.48
6.84
(3.59)
4.10 6.31
23.04
(3.90)
(7.96)
(2.30)
5.39
8.38
21.37 19.80
9.46
18.30 20.09
(4.21)
22.03
15.04
7.39
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
(30.00)
(20.00)
(10.00)
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
Au
g-1
3
Oct-1
3
De
c-1
3
Fe
b-1
4
Ap
r-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Au
g-1
4
Oct-1
4
De
c-1
4
Fe
b-1
5
Ap
r-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Au
g-1
5
Oct-1
5
De
c-1
5
Fe
b-1
6
Ap
r-1
6
Ju
n-1
6
Au
g-1
6
Capital Inflows [LHS] capital inflows over foreign [RHS]
FOREIGN INVESTOR ACTIVITY
Monthly Net Buyer (Seller) - Non Resident Foreign Ownership - Proportion by Tenor
[In IDR Trillion]
FOREIGN INVESTORS MOSTLY DOMINATED BY HIGH QUALITY LONG TERM INVESTORS
As of August 8, 2016
19
5.20% 4.65% 4.45% 3.23% 3.04% 3.54% 3.30% 3.52%
5.41% 3.73%2.34% 1.28% 1.55% 1.82% 2.36% 2.27%
12.88% 15.23%12.46%
11.82% 11.89% 10.78%
19.75% 19.41%
32.04% 33.58%
36.18%38.98% 38.36% 36.92%
26.19% 25.87%
44.46% 42.81% 44.56% 44.68% 45.16% 46.95% 48.40% 48.94%
32.54%
38.13% 39.63% 38.21% 38.94% 38.85% 39.39% 39.49%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Dec 13 Dec 14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 09-Aug-16
0-1 ≥1-2 ≥2-5 ≥5-10 ≥10 %Foreign Ownership of Total
CRISIS MANAGEMENT PROTOCOL &
BOND STABILIZATION FRAMEWORK
Directorate of Government Debt Securities| Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management| Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
Pre-emptive Measures
Implementing Crisis Management Protocol
(CMP)
Implementing Bond Stabilization Framework
(BSF)
Enhancing coordination between government
institutions and continuous dialogue with market
participants
Specific policies in place to address crises
enacted in 2016 budget law
Swap facility arrangements based on international cooperation
Crisis Management Protocol
Indicators to determine crisis level of
Government Securities Market condition (normal,
aware, alert, crisis)
Several market indicators that are monitored
daily:
- Yield of benchmark series;
- Exchange rate;
- Jakarta Composite Index;
- Foreign ownership in government securities
Policies to address the crisis at every level :
- Repurchase the government securities at
secondary market
- Postpone or stop the issuance
First Line of Defense
State’s Budget
Buyback fund at DG of Budget Financing
and Risk Management
Investment fund at Public Service Agency
(BLU) (min. level Aware)
State Owned Enterprises
(BUMN)’s Budget Related BUMNs (min. level Aware)
Social Security
Organizing Agency
(BPJS)’s Budget BPJS (min. level Aware)
Second Line of Defense
State’s Budget
State General Treasury Account
(Rekening KUN) (min. level Alert)
Accumulated cash surplus (SAL) (min.
Level Crisis)
State Owned Enterprises
(BUMN)’s Budget Related BUMNs (min. level Alert)
Social Security
Organizing Agency
(BPJS)’s Budget BPJS (min. level Alert)
Bond Stabilization Framework
IMPLEMENT MEASURES TO MANAGE EXTERNAL VOLATILITY …TO MITIGATE SUDDEN REVERSALS
21
DEBT OUTSTANDING
&
RISK PROFILE
Directorate of Government Debt Securities| Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management| Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
Loan Gov't Sec
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
-205
5
Domestic Foreign
TOTAL DEBT MATURITY PROFILE AS OF END OF JUNE, 2016
Maturity Profile of Central Government by Currencies (in trillion IDR)
Maturity Profile of Central Government by Instruments (in trillion IDR)
43%
57%
Foreign Domestic
78%
22%
Gov't Sec Loan
23
Directorate of Government Debt Securities| Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management| Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
Notes: *Preliminary Figures **) Not included accrued interest IDR 35,21 Trillion
OUTSTANDING CENTRAL GOVERNMENT DEBT
BY INSTRUMENT
Nominal %
a. Foreign Loan (in billion USD) 68.6 68.4 63.6 58.4 54.2 54.4 55.8 21.9%
Bilateral 42.3 42.1 37.2 31.5 26.9 24.7 25.8 10.1%
Multilateral 23.2 23.5 23.8 23.7 23.5 26.1 26.3 10.3%
Commercial 3.0 2.8 2.5 3.3 3.8 3.6 3.6 1.4%
Suppliers 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0%
b Domestic Loan (in billion USD) 0.0 0.1 0.19 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1%
c. Government Securities (in billion USD) 118.4 131.0 140.8 136.3 155.2 174.7 199.0 78.0%
Foreign Currency Denominated 18.0 21.6 27.4 32.8 36.7 47.8 54.3 21.3%
Rupiah Denominated 100.4 109.4 113.4 103.5 118.5 126.9 144.7 56.7%
Total Central Government Debt
(in billion USD)187.0 199.5 194.9 209.7 229.4 255.1
Total Central Government Debt
(in trilion IDR)1,681.7 1,808.9 2,375.5 2,608.8 3,165.1 3,362.7
Exchange Rate Assumption (IDR/USD1) 8,991.0 9,068.0 12,189.0 12,440.0 13,795.0 13,180.0
GDP (in trillion IDR) 6,864.1 7,831.7 9,524.7 10,542.7 11,540.8
Debt to GDP Ratio 24.5% 23.1% 23.0% 24.9% 24.7% 27.4%
2010Description
June-16**)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
204.5
1,977.7
9,670.0
8,615.7
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Directorate of Government Debt Securities| Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management| Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
OUTSTANDING CENTRAL GOVERNMENT DEBT
BY CURRENCY
Notes: *Preliminary Figures **) Not included accrued interest IDR 35,21 Trillion
Description 2011 2015*)
Original Currency
IDR (in trillion) 993.0 1,098.0 1,263.9 1,477.8 1,755.2 1,911.9
Gov't Securities 992.0 1,096.2 1,261.7 1,474.6 1,751.1 1,907.3
Loan 1.0 1.8 2.2 3.2 4.1 4.6
USD (in billion) 43.9 49.8 56.8 61.0 73.3 75.2
Gov't Securities 20.4 25.6 31.3 34.2 43.2 45.0
Loan 23.5 24.2 25.4 26.8 30.1 30.2
JPY (in billion) 2,589.8 2,498.8 2,395.3 2,223.1 2,143.4 2,135.4
Gov't Securities 95.0 155.0 155.0 155.0 255.0 355.0
Loan 2,494.8 2,343.8 2,228.8 2,068.1 1,888.4 1,780.4
EUR (in billion) 5.0 4.5 4.2 5.1 6.2 9.0
Gov't Securities - - - 1.0 2.3 5.3
Loan 5.0 4.5 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.7
Other currencies
Equivalent in Billion USD
IDR 109.5 113.5 103.7 118.8 127.2 145.0 56.8%
USD 43.9 49.8 56.8 61.0 73.3 75.2 29.5%
JPY 33.4 29.1 22.8 18.6 17.8 20.8 8.2%
EUR 6.4 6.0 5.8 6.3 6.7 10.0 3.9%
Other currencies 6.3 6.1 5.8 5.1 4.4 4.1 1.6%
Total Eq. in Billion USD 199.5 204.5 194.9 209.7 229.4 255.1
Equivalent in Trillion IDR
IDR 993.0 1,098.0 1,263.9 1,477.8 1,755.2 1,911.9
USD 397.9 481.9 692.0 758.6 1,009.2 990.9
JPY 302.5 281.2 278.3 231.8 245.5 274.0
EUR 58.5 57.5 71.1 77.7 92.4 131.6
Other currencies 57.1 59.1 70.2 62.9 62.9 54.4
Total Eq. in Trillion IDR 1,808.9 1,977.7 2,375.5 2,608.8 3,165.1 3,362.7
Foreign Currency Portion 45.1% 44.5% 46.8% 43.4% 44.5% 43.1%
Exchange Rate Assumption USD/IDR 9,068 9,670 12,189.0 12,440.0 13,795.0 13,180.0
2013 2014 June-16**)
2012
----------------Multiple Currencies -----------------------
25
Directorate of Government Debt Securities| Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management| Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
10
.7%
10
.3%
10
.5%
11
.6%
12
.6%
10
.6%
9.9
%
9.9
%
11
.1%
13
.2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
to Tax Revenue to Central Gov't Expenditures
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT DEBT RATIOS
Debt to GDP Ratio Interest Payment to Revenue and
Expenditure Ratio
Debt Service to GDP Ratio Interest Payment to Tax Revenue &
Central Government Expenditure Ratio
Notes: Using GDP at Current Market Prices [2010 Version]
24.5% 23.1% 23.0%
24.9% 24.7%
27.4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
7.7
%
7.5
%
7.9
%
8.6
%
10
.3%
7.2
%
6.7
%
6.8
%
7.5
%
8.6
%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
to Revenue to Expenditure
2.9% 3.2%
2.9%
3.5% 3.3%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
26
Directorate of Government Debt Securities| Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management| Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
RISK INDICATORS
*) Preliminary figures
**) Using GDP assumption in R-Budget 2016
-Risk indicators are improving amidst pressure from rupiah depreciation
-Risk indicators show improvements in interest rate risk and stability in exchange and refinancing risks
18.816.2 16.0
14.8 14.012.3
25.9
22.5 23.221.0 21.1
18.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*) Juni-16**)
Interest Rate Risk
Variable rate ratio [%] Refixing rate [%]
10.4 10.2 11.7 10.7 11.8 11.4
45.1 44.446.7
43.4 43.9 43.2
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*) Juni-16**)
Exchange Rate Risk
FX Debt to GDP ratio (%) **) FX Debt to total debt ratio (%)
9.32
9.70
9.60
9.73
9.289.32
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*) Juni-16**)
Average Time To Maturity
ATM (in years)
8.2 7.2 8.6 7.7 8.56.9
22.7 21.5 21.820.1
21.8 22.9
34.632.4 33.4 33.9 35.3 34.3
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*) Juni-16**)
Debt Maturing
in < 1 year (%) in < 3 year (%) in < 5 year (%)
27
Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
Directorate of Government Debt Securities
Frans Seda building, 4th Floor Jl. Wahidin Raya No. 1, Jakarta Pusat – Postal Code: 10710
Phone: +6221 3810175 Fax. : +6221 3846516
Website: www.djppr.kemenkeu.go.id
END OF PRESENTATION