grant willis global head of natural resources the australian oil & gas industry january 2014

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Grant Willis Global Head of Natural Resources The Australian Oil & Gas Industry January 2014

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Page 1: Grant Willis Global Head of Natural Resources The Australian Oil & Gas Industry January 2014

Grant WillisGlobal Head of Natural Resources

The Australian Oil & Gas Industry

January 2014

Page 2: Grant Willis Global Head of Natural Resources The Australian Oil & Gas Industry January 2014

2

This presentation does not constitute an offer to provide finance on any terms. The provision of any such offer is subject to formal review and credit approval, satisfactory due diligence, sign off by legal, tax, accounting and other professional advisers and execution of satisfactory documentation. The Commonwealth Bank shall not be bound unless and until final terms are agreed and formal documentation is signed. That final documentation may not necessarily mirror the contents of this presentation and any actions you may choose to take should not be taken in reliance on this presentation.

The information contained herein is confidential and is the proprietary structure of the Commonwealth Bank. It is provided on the basis that you will not disclose its contents to any persons other than directors, employees and advisors without the written consent of the Commonwealth Bank. It is not to be discussed either directly or indirectly with any other financier. This obligation will not apply if the information is available to the public generally (except as a result of a previous breach of this confidentiality obligation) or you are required to disclose it by law.

© Copyright Commonwealth Bank Australia

Page 3: Grant Willis Global Head of Natural Resources The Australian Oil & Gas Industry January 2014

3

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia

Australia’s largest bank by market capitalisation

Statutory NPAT A$7,677mCash NPAT A$7,819mReturn on equity 18.4%Total assets A$754bCash earnings per share A$4.86Dividend per share A$3.64

Basel III CET1 (International) 11.0%

$101b

June 2011

$135b

June 2012

$137b

June 2013

S&P Moody’s Fitch

CREDIT RATING KEY FINANCIALS

GLOBAL COMPARISON LIQUIDITY (AUD)

Market Capitalisation

(US$bn)

Global Market Capitalisation

Ranking

Senior Debt Rating

Moody’s S&P

268.02 1 A2 A+

243.52 2 A3 A

232.44 4 Aa3 A+

198.11 6 Baa2 A-

183.81 7 Baa2 A-

124.01 10 Aa2 AA-

104.29 15 Aa3 AA-

92.91 18 Baa1 A-

Industry specialisation and understanding make the Bank an ideal partner providing balance sheet strength and broad product capability

Oil & Gas industry teams placed in key commercial and financing hubs. CBA is a Bank that actively deploys balance sheet into our client’s businesses

Broad range of debt products spanning project, corporate and acquisition finance

Strong global financial markets capabilities across commodities, foreign currency and interest rates

The only domestic Australian bank with a full in-house equity business, focused on retail and institutional clients

Source: Bloomberg. As at 13 January 2014. Credit rating: S&P

14.6m Customers

3,000 Institutional Clients

Page 4: Grant Willis Global Head of Natural Resources The Australian Oil & Gas Industry January 2014

4

The Bank provides Natural Resources and product specialists across the globe

The Growing Commonwealth Bank of Australia

New York officeHouston officeUnited StatesCanada

Singapore officeHong Kong officeEast & SE Asia

Sydney officeAustraliaNew ZealandEast & SE Asia

London officeUKNorwayThe NetherlandsEastern EuropeAfrica

Page 5: Grant Willis Global Head of Natural Resources The Australian Oil & Gas Industry January 2014

5

Commonwealth Bank of Australia – Products and Clients

Financial Markets

Transaction Banking

Capital Raising

Cash & Treasury ManagementPayables & Procurement

Foreign Currency AccountsTrade Finance

CommBizTerm Deposits

Working CapitalAcquisition & Bridge Finance

Project & Development FinanceCorporate & Structured Asset Finance

Equity & Debt Capital Markets

Commodities Sales & TradingStructured Commodity FinanceStructured InvestmentsInterest RatesFX

Page 6: Grant Willis Global Head of Natural Resources The Australian Oil & Gas Industry January 2014

6

CBA’s Global Outlook

    2010 (a) 2011 (a) 2012 (a) 2013 (a) 2014 (f) 2015 (f)

GDP Growth (% YoY)

FX

AUD/USD 0.94 0.91 0.90

EUR/USD 1.34 1.32 1.305

GBP/USD 1.63 1.62 1.54

Base Interest Rate

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) 2.50% 2.56% 3.00%

US Federal Reserve (Fed) 0.25% 0.25% 0.75%

European Central Bank (ECB) 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%

People's Bank of China - Benchmark 1 Year Lending Rate 6.00% 6.00% 6.00%

Oil (USD/bbl)WTI 98.00 91.00 94.00

Brent 109.00 99.00 97.00

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10Global

Australia

USA

China

Eurozone Gro

wth

Rat

e (%

)

Australian Economy – Outlook

Page 7: Grant Willis Global Head of Natural Resources The Australian Oil & Gas Industry January 2014

7

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

USDAUD / USD EXCHANGE RATE

Natural Resources Economic Data

Source: CBA

Page 8: Grant Willis Global Head of Natural Resources The Australian Oil & Gas Industry January 2014

8

Global Listed E&P StocksWhere does Australia stand?

# of Stocks % of Stocks

Mkt. Cap (USDbn)

% of Total Mkt Cap

Median (USDm)

Global Revenue(USDm)

% of Global Revenue

Global 1052 100% 1231 100% 34 471 100%

US 335 32% 608 49% 34 240 51%

Canada 347 33% 185 15% 17 58 12%

Europe (incl UK) 139 13% 136 11% 80 28 6%

Asia Pac (ex AU) 55 5% 226 18% 297 121 26%

Australia 136 13% 67 5% 20 13 3%

Market Capitalisation of Global E&P Stocks

Source: CBA and Bloomberg

Page 9: Grant Willis Global Head of Natural Resources The Australian Oil & Gas Industry January 2014

9

Australian E&Ps by Market Capitalisation (AUDm)

Source: CBA and Bloomberg

ASIA ASIA ASIA

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000 $13,515

$10,895

$1,796

$1,266 $913 $767$687 $618 $575 $482 $436 $307 $220 $153

$31,514

Page 10: Grant Willis Global Head of Natural Resources The Australian Oil & Gas Industry January 2014

10

Are attracting a roll call of international majors

/

Amount $156m

Acres 7.7m

EV / Acre 20.3

Date Dec-2011

/

Amount $70m

Acres 4.0m

EV / Acre 17.6

Date May-2011

Amount $12m

Acres 1.9m

EV / Acre 6.2

Date May-2012

/

Amount $111m

Acres 7.7m

EV / Acre 14.4

Date Sep-2011

/

Amount $152m

Acres 4.1m

EV / Acre 37.3

Date Nov-2012

/

Amount $210m

Acres 9.1m

EV / Acre 22.9

Date Jun-2012

APLNG, Arrow LNG, GLNG and QCLNG,

/

Amount $50m

Acres 3.3m

EV / Acre 15.0

Date Dec-2010

/

Amount $101m

Acres 0.4m

EV / Acre 268.6

Date Jul-2011

Source: Relevant company announcements

/

Amount $32.2m

Acres 5.5m

EV / Acre 5.9

Date Nov-2013

Recent Unconventional Gas Farm-ins

Uncovered natural gas pipelinesFull regulation pipelines

Browse LNG

Prelude FLNG

Canning

Perth

Gippsland

Amadeus

Georgina

Officer

Galilee

Arckaringa

Otway

Beetaloo

Darwin LNG

Ichthys

CooperMaryborough

Gunnedah/Sydney

Wheatstone

NW Shelf LNG

Pluto

Gorgon

Light regulation pipelines

/

Amount $349m

Acres 0.4m

EV / Acre 904.1

Date Feb-2013

Page 11: Grant Willis Global Head of Natural Resources The Australian Oil & Gas Industry January 2014

11

Putting the Australian opportunity in context

United States of America Australia

Land Area3.79 million mi2 2.97 million mi2

Natural Gas Demand24.37 Tcf/yr(Net Imports 1.94 Tcf/yr)

2.09 Tcf/yr(Net Exports 1.0 Tcf/yr)

2,203 Tcf1 Gas Resource Potential 820 Tcf2

Gas Prices (US$/MMBtu)$10 $3 $5 $9

Ability to Deliver

1. Technically recoverable resources2. Total demonstrated gas resources3. Number of plantsSource : EIA Independent Statistics & Analysis, EIA Annual Energy Review 2011 , BREE 2012 Gas Resource Assessment, Energy Quest and Santos analysis

US AUSRigs 1,800 50Wells 37,000 1,200Processing(3) 600 25Pipelines (mi) 350,000 20,000

Page 12: Grant Willis Global Head of Natural Resources The Australian Oil & Gas Industry January 2014

12

Australian Exploration Activity and Expenditure

Source: APPEA

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Wells Spudded Onshore (LHS) Wells Spudded Offshore (LHS) Expenditure (RHS)

No

. of

Wel

ls S

pu

dd

ed /

Met

res

Dri

lled

(00

0's)

AU

D m

illlo

n

Page 13: Grant Willis Global Head of Natural Resources The Australian Oil & Gas Industry January 2014

13

Historical Oil & Gas Production

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012150

200

250

300

Liquids

Liq

uid

Pro

uc

tio

n

(mm

bb

l)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Historical Australian Oil & Gas Production

LNG Domestic Conventional Gas Domestic CSG

Ga

s P

rod

uc

tio

n (

bc

f)

Source: APPEA

Page 14: Grant Willis Global Head of Natural Resources The Australian Oil & Gas Industry January 2014

14

Australian LNG Exports to Exceed 78 mtpa by 2020

LNG Exports – by country

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200 Mtpa

50 Mtpa

100 Mtpa

150 Mtpa

200 Mtpa

250 Mtpa

300 Mtpa

350 Mtpa

400 Mtpa Qatar Malaysia Australia Indonesia NigeriaUnited States Canada Mozambique Other

Page 15: Grant Willis Global Head of Natural Resources The Australian Oil & Gas Industry January 2014

15

Australian & Papua New Guinean LNG Projects

Offshore Conventional Gas to LNG Projects

Coal Seam Gas to LNG Projects

Onshore Conventional Gas to LNG Projects

(P) Proposed

(C) Construction

(O) Operating

GLNG (C)GLNG Santos / Petronas / Total

QCLNG (C)BG Group

Scarborough FLNG (P)ExxonMobil / BHP

Gorgon (C)Chevron

Darwin LNG (O)ConocoPhillips

PNG LNG (C)ExxonMobil / Oil Search/ Santos

Liquid Niugini Gas (Elk 1&2) (P)InterOil / Total

Pluto (O)Woodside

Browse (P)Woodside

NWSV Trains 1-5 (O)Woodside

Sunrise (P)Woodside

Wheatstone (C)Chevron / Apache

Prelude (C)Shell

Ichthys (C)INPEX / Total

APLNG (C)Australia Pacific LNGConocoPhillips / Origin Energy / Sinopec

Bonaparte FLNG (P)Santos / GDF SUEZ

Arrow LNG (P)Shell / Petro China

Source: WorleyParsons, CBA

Page 16: Grant Willis Global Head of Natural Resources The Australian Oil & Gas Industry January 2014

16

Case Study: Ichthys LNG Project

Principal Project Components• USD34bn capex budget • The upstream facilities comprise around 50 subsea production wells and

subsea production systems connected to a Semi-sub central processing facility and FPSO

• Gas will be transported to the LNG plant at Darwin via an 889km, 42” sub-sea pipeline

• Once transported to Darwin the gas will be processed at the onshore LNG Facilities.

• The project is designed to produce approximately 8.4mtpa of LNG from two trains, up to 100,000 bpd of field and plant condensate and up to 1.6mtpa of LPG at peak, with First LNG is scheduled for 2016

Page 17: Grant Willis Global Head of Natural Resources The Australian Oil & Gas Industry January 2014

Conclusions The future of Australian oil & gas is bright.

CBA remains committed to the sector.

Oil prices remain high against historical, domestic gas prices are rising – the economic settings are stable.

The conventional gas fields in central Australia are enjoying a renaissance.

7 LNG projects will shortly begin producing in 2014 and ramp up into 2017.

International players continue to invest and support the Australian oil & gas industry.

We could do with finding some more oil though.

Page 18: Grant Willis Global Head of Natural Resources The Australian Oil & Gas Industry January 2014

21

Largest ever project financing transaction

Ichthys LNG Project – Project Financing

Inpex (Japan) and Total SA (France) are the major partners in the Ichthys LNG

project which raised USD20bn of project financing and reached financial close in

January 2013

CBA is the largest non-Japanese lender CBA is the Intercreditor Agent and

Uncovered Sub-Facility Agent

Largest Project Finance Deal

Project sponsor engagement with Export Credit Agencies (ECA) commenced during 2010

– over two years ahead of financial close

The financing process commenced in November 2011 when lenders provided preliminary

RFPs. Banks provided final credit approvals in June 2012 and Financial Close was

reached in January 2013, eight months after receipt of the formal RFP

Significant debt amount – USD20bn the largest ever project financing

Multi-lender engagement strategy (ECAs, banks and sponsor debt, and provision for

bonds)

Banks lent USD10.2bn to the project (USD4.8bn Uncovered (47%) and $5.4bn (53%)

Covered)

3 ECAs directly lent USD5.8bn, and Sponsors provided loans of USD4bn

The project has a number of attractions and some challenges to lenders:

Strategically aligned Sponsors group (Inpex 66%, Total 30%), with Total being a well

credentialed LNG developer and operator

The liquids rich conventional gas resource delivers strong project economics

Committed off-take arrangements from ten buyers, 68% going to Japanese buyers,

Sponsors buying 21%

Robust project finance structure with contracted senior sponsor support in various forms

Ichthys LNG ProjectUSD20bn

Intercreditor & Uncovered Sub-Facility Agent

December 2012

Asia Pacific Deal of the

Year

Ichthys LNG ProjectUSD20bn

MLAB Commercial Bank Facility

December 2012

Global Deal of the Year

Asia-Pacific Multi-sourced Deal of

the Year