grasim industries y 2013 earnings call 6 may’13 call/100300_20130506.pdf · grasim industries y...
TRANSCRIPT
Grasim Industries Y 2013 Earnings Call 6 May’13
Operator Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Grasim Industries Limited's Q4 FY13 Earnings Conference Call hosted by Axis Capital Limited. As a reminder, for the duration of the conference all participants' line will be in the listen‐only mode. There will be an opportunity for you to ask questions at the end of today's presentation. Please note that this conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to hand over the conference over to Mr. Jagdishwar Toppo of Axis Capital. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Jagdishwar Toppo, Analyst Thank you. Welcome everyone to Grasim's Industries' fourth quarter FY '13 earnings call. From Grasim's Industries Limited, we have with us Mr. KK Maheshwari, Managing Director; Mr. Adesh Gupta, Whole time Director and CFO; Mr. Sharad Agarwal, GM Finance. From UltraTech, we have Mr. KC Datta [ph], CFO. Without much delay, I hand over the floor to Mr. Adesh Gupta for his opening remarks. Over to you, sir.
Adesh Gupta, Chief Financial Officer Thank you, Jagdishwar. Good morning, and welcome to all the participants to our con call. I believe our results are with you and I am giving this introductory speech only to cover some business highlights. While our results have shown improvement both in the quarter and the year, we are now set for new phase of growth.
At the outset I wish to share good news that 1,82,500‐tons chemical project at Vilayat has commissioned while 30‐megawatt power plant is at advanced stage of commissioning. VSF capacity has increased to 3,70,000 tons with the commissioning of phase two of our Brownfield expansions, having a capacity of 18,000 tons along with 40‐megawatt In cement, while the clinkerization plant at Rawan in Chhattisgarh is operative, we are ready to start the Brownfield expansion Malkhed in Karnataka in the current quarter. This new capacity should boost ‐‐ should give boost to volumes going forward.
Now let me give you the key highlights of quarter four, starting with VSF business. In VSF business, VSF demand has shown an upward trend. Sales volumes for the quarter has been maintained at ‐‐ on year‐over‐year basis at 95,161 tons. On Q‐on‐Q basis, volumes grew by 21%.
Volumes during the year have grown by 9% despite challenging conditions. However, surplus VSF capacity in China and a high quarter inventory continued to exert pressure on realization. Global VSF price has declined by 10% on a year‐on‐year basis. Domestic market realizations were lower onsite 1% as rupee reduced the impact.
Though pulp cost (inaudible) declined in imported pulp prices, higher caustic prices led to pressure on margins. The chemical business however benefitted from the increase in caustic prices. On a standalone basis, VSF PBIDT was 216 crores against INR232 crores last year. The performance of the company's pulp (inaudible) however was adversely affected due to fall in realizations. The pulp prices are showing some positive sign. Operating ‐‐ operations are stabilizing at (inaudible) . The chemical business continued to perform well. (inaudible) realizations depend on some improvement in (inaudible) prices was visible during the quarter. Both operating profit and margins were up higher on an year‐on‐year business. PBIDT of chemical business was 51 crores and was up by 57%. In cement business, weak demand conditions continued in the cement sector. UltraTech's combined cement and clinker sales was 12 million tons.
Net revenues grew by 3% with increase in realizations on year‐on‐year basis, where (inaudible) cost was down by 2% on account of decline in energy cost, which is down by 8%. Cement PBIDT was 1,186 crores as against INR1,241 crores in there corresponding quarter due to lower volumes and higher logistic cost.
Now, let me move on to the financial performance for the quarter. The company's consolidated revenue grew by 5% from INR7,283 crores in corresponding quarter to INR7,670 crores in current quarter. PIBT ‐‐ PBIDT for the quarter was 1,786 crores as against 1,883 crores. Tax for the quarter increased from INR381 crores to INR470 crores on year‐on‐year basis. This includes additional charge of deferred tax liability of INR102 crores on increase in rate of surcharge on account of income tax proposed in finance bill 2013.
Profits from sale of Alexandria Carbon Black at (inaudible) quarter was INR204 crores. Net profit was INR218 crores, (inaudible) INR818 crores, marginally better as compared to 809 crores in the corresponding quarter. For the full year, Grasim achieved higher operating profit. PBIDT increased by 4% to INR6,543 crores. Net income ‐‐ profit increased by 2% to INR2,704 crores. I have ‐‐ as far as CapEx is covered ‐‐ I have already covered the expansions which are nearing completion. Besides (inaudible) is progressing well and is likely to be commissioned in September 2013.
UltraTech plants expanded its capacity at Aditya Cement Works in Rajasthan by 2.9 million ton at an outlay of about 2,000 crores. The capacity is expected to be commissioned by March 2015. The commissioning of existing projects under implement is adaptable ‐‐ Aditya expansion ‐‐ UltraTech capacity will extend augmented to 64.4 million tons.
Total capacity under including subsidiary is INR15,880 crores, of this 7,480 crores has already been expanded in the case as work in progress. In current year we expect to spend 5,284 crores.
Finally, to summarize, we have shown good performance given the present economic conditioned, capacity expansion in VSF and cement will provide addition volumes, driving growth and further consultation of the company's leadership. Domestic market is being strengthened in both the businesses to meet challenges. The company will utilize these capacities at the earliest in the present difficult conditions keeping balance between realizations and volumes.
The company will continue to focus on cost reduction measures, improving assets productivity to maintain its position as the lowest cost producer and expanding its specialty products portfolio for sustained shareholders value creation.
I now request the moderator to open the forum for the queries. Thank you.
Questions And Answers
Operator Thank you very much, sir. (Operator Instructions) Our first question is form Naveen Sachdev Edelweiss Securities. Please go ahead. Mr. Sachdev, your line has been unmated.
Naveen Sachdev, Analyst Hello, hello?
Unidentified Speaker Yeah.
Naveen Sachdev, Analyst Yeah, hello, sir. Sir, my question was on VSF. If you could just elaborate more on the price outlook in the near‐term. So as you said that there has been a 1% decline in the domestic realization, so what is the current level of the prices? And from another three to six months perspective, how do we see it? Because on one hand, you seeing like the cotton prices firming up globally, but VSF is clearly down. So there is that disconnect which we see which is usually there from a longer term that cotton and VSF both tend to move at least directionally inline. So how do we see the price in near term, sir?
Adesh Gupta, Chief Financial Officer The prices are around the same level as they were last quarter. The outlook of both will depend a lot on how the ‐‐ even layout in the end consuming country, workforce like all of us know that. America is being doing relatively better and the European economy continues to face its own problems, and in China of course the consumer demand has been going albeit a little slowly. So these factors will continue to play their roles. Now, it's the ‐‐ lot of it will depend up on (inaudible) are also subject to lot of speculative activity unlike fiber, which has got more to do with what's happening in the physical world.
And cotton, of course, every bank is giving outlook for announced. And while this year's crop is expected to be slightly less than last year, but again we expect some buildup in stock. But again, we expect next year's crop to be down from this year's crop. Now, how it will really play out will depend a lot upon what are the prices of relative crops and what are the currency number of times is always subject to so many things that are difficult to take a longer term call expect in the broader term outlook which we have shared with
you that the area under cultivation is not increasing for cotton.
And barring some very grateful thing, we find that the yields are more or less play out evenly forever with the cotton (inaudible). I think the pricing outlook will be subject to all of these, but we ‐‐ like I know that there will be large number of questions or maybe ‐‐ we do not, like last time also, we do not see much scope for the prices to fall. Couple of, like INR1 here or there varies almost (inaudible) .
I think last time also we shared that we see very little scope for (inaudible) and that has been blown out this quarter and outlook going forward could again be more of the same, lot of pressure in the international markets and lot of the exports from China. I think sometimes we see prices from there which would not make any sense. But we are ledging to discuss about that on so many times. improve it, keep on upgrading our operations for that in and also move towards to specialty products and all our products which (inaudible) in terms of the lab. The commissioning of which again may be, preemptive, has been slightly delayed.
We were expecting it to commission in this quarter, it got postponed to next quarter largely due to the entire problems which we faced here in terms of getting all the contractors to deliver on the performance as expected.
But I think next quarter we will definitely be on stream we've also undertaken the modernization of the naphtha plant . You know that clearly is that ‐‐ which we have taken to upgrade our performance. And on the pricing output, like I said, that the chances of further reduction from here (inaudible) the whole world ‐‐
Unidentified Participant Right.
Adesh Gupta, Chief Financial Officer ‐‐ very different sort of trajectory of ‐‐
Unidentified Participant Sure. But sir, very specifically on prices, where are they currently? You said 1% decline quarter‐on‐quarter, so what's that average if you could just highlight on a per kilo or a per ton basis, and as we speak, what are the current prices?
Adesh Gupta, Chief Financial Officer That amounted to same levels as ‐‐ more or less around the same level as the last quarter.
Unidentified Participant So ‐‐ okay. So average realizations currently just remain about flat even today in the month of May, as we speak?
Adesh Gupta, Chief Financial Officer That's correct.
Unidentified Participant Okay, because we were hearing some news of declines as such in April and also in May.
Adesh Gupta, Chief Financial Officer Yeah, they were ‐‐ but you know like again, like I said, those (inaudible) taken place. So I think we ‐‐ it's like ‐‐ I don't know how much you'll get more for (inaudible) the pricing is at a very challenging position. Not that, but broadly margins ‐‐ you're saying ‐‐ net that can we take that margins will stabilize or innovate? They've bottomed out at the current quarter's level and will move either sideways or go up going ahead?
Adesh Gupta, Chief Financial Officer You see, margins, barring slight movements here or there will remain at these levels, like there is a big change in the price of raw materials. So as you know, slight ‐‐ this year is going to be a challenging year.
Unidentified Participant Sure.
Adesh Gupta, Chief Financial Officer Certainly, like with the continuing pressure is largely the over‐capacity in China. So that is certainly ‐‐ it's going to be a challenging year, but we expect sort of ‐‐ not a ‐‐ there would be quite a significant pressure on profitability but I think that we have to see how the event unfolds because you've seen that these are names that we keep repeating subjects, so many factors that it's ‐‐ I wouldn't have had a long‐term (inaudible) accepting that when we plan for things we go (inaudible) trends definitely projects well for this industry in terms of what we discussed. Demand was (inaudible) .
I think again to share with you that the feedback we are getting for some of our newer production is extremely good, (inaudible) and lot of newspapers. Over the last one month it was just seen as a lever, fabric which has come out in ‐based on our fiber and some of the specialty fiber that ‐‐ modal and other things that we intend to make out of the (inaudible) what I here found the market sources that's looking very well. So those are again things which we are going to do to get reap, again promote a demand for our products as well as to ensure that we have a differentiated product offering compared to others.
But these are offers which will take time to there ‐‐ in the meantime I think the pressure of Chinese is continuous, you may see stress in very near term, but I think that over the longer‐term that same in cotton productions, if we may tell you, it's there in the ballpark range of 25 plus minus 2 million tonnes, which we shared with you. Not expect to do more to this range even next year.
Unidentified Participant Okay.
Adesh Gupta, Chief Financial Officer So again, like all of you know that China has built up a huge cotton reserve of 10 million tonnes.
Unidentified Participant Okay.
Unidentified Speaker So, the various things which we have to deal with, I think the focus again as I think Mr. Adesh would explain and I would like to reiterate, continually from our side we are on a continued improvement and efficiency and then going up the value chain.
Unidentified Participant Right. And second quick question, you mentioned Vilayat plant should start commissioning, I mean, will get commissioned in the second quarter, so will second quarter also see the first shipment from Vilayat plant?
Adesh Gupta, Chief Financial Officer Yeah, which is what we hoped to be able to do that.
Unidentified Participant
Okay, fine. Thank you, sir, and all the best.
Operator Thank you. Our next question is from Prashant Shah of Vantage Securities. Please go ahead.
Prashant Shah, Analyst Yeah. Good morning, sir. This is actually ‐‐ can you hear me?
Adesh Gupta, Chief Financial Officer Yeah.
Prashant Shah, Analyst This is actually related to your UltraTech Cement division, I just wanted to understand how ‐‐ sir, the moment in your realizations on a YoY basis, and where do you see them going ahead, and what factors you think will change them ‐will drive further improvement, if any?
Adesh Gupta, Chief Financial Officer I think Q4 year‐on‐year realization was up by 2%.
Prashant Shah, Analyst Yes. This give you a feel that if this prices of December versus the March, the prices is on the increasing trend. So March exit prices was better. There is a little softening during this current period, but it's ‐‐ that these is up and down for five or 10 days and then again up for 10 days. I think that doesn't matter, the important is whether the demand comes back.
Prashant Shah, Analyst Okay. Okay.
Adesh Gupta, Chief Financial Officer And the upgraded number we have see there the demand is again going up to 9% growth.
Prashant Shah, Analyst Yes, correct. Okay, and so how do you see your margin expenses are going, I mean, going high for the full year? Last year was more or less stable, but for '14?
Adesh Gupta, Chief Financial Officer That is what we are expecting we should able to maintain EBITDA of around INR1,000 per tonne.
Prashant Shah, Analyst INR1,000 per tonne?
Adesh Gupta, Chief Financial Officer Yeah.
Prashant Shah, Analyst Okay, fine, sir. And could you just, I mean, sir, I missed the little part of your CapEx trends. Could you just repeat on that again? What are the CapEx plans for the year and the outlay?
Adesh Gupta, Chief Financial Officer The CapEx for the UltraTech, today we have a project in pipeline of around 11,500 crores.
Prashant Shah, Analyst Okay.
Adesh Gupta, Chief Financial Officer Prashant Shah, Analyst 4,000 crores?
Adesh Gupta, Chief Financial Officer Yes.
Prashant Shah, Analyst Okay, in'14? And overall, your planning for about 11,500 over next two or three years?
Adesh Gupta, Chief Financial Officer Yes.
Prashant Shah, Analyst Okay, fine. And how much capacity is expect to come on line during the year or to go in for expansion?
Adesh Gupta, Chief Financial Officer For us or for the industry?
Unidentified Participant Okay fine. Okay thank you very much sir.
Unidentified Speaker Thank you.
Operator Thank you. Our next question is from ‐‐ Agarwal of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant Yeah, thank you good morning to ‐‐. Sir you just mentioned that demand growth in April for you was 9% this year but we have seen prices in April coming down for everyone what would two sub question here what do you think with the demand for the industry was in totality and second sub question there is that in terms of incremental construction activities in April versus March I'm just comparing month over month not the quarters.
April versus March at what was the trend that you see in housing and infrastructure activities.
Unidentified Speaker So the point is that as you that cement demand is link to GDP gross and if you are the expecting the GDP should grow at 6% then definitely should grow at 6% then definitely cement demand should grow at 7.5%, but the ‐‐ point is that there is election in '13, '14 state.
During FY '14 and then send to the election also we are hopeful that pre election is pending should come and the GDP multiply should be higher for the pre election period and therefore are hopeful that demand should grow over 8%.
Unidentified Participant Sir, sorry my question was specific to April that when that a ‐‐ year on year number demand growth was 9% just for the industry what is your feel that a demand growth was because we seen price is coming down if demand growth was 9% one should not have a scenario where price is industry comes down ‐‐ dramatically.
Unidentified Speaker No, what I said is we are expecting industry demand grow 88%.
Unidentified Participant For the ‐‐
Unidentified Speaker Sorry?
Unidentified Participant For April as a month, the gone by month?
Unidentified Speaker No, a bill month is our growth is 9%, I don't have the detail right now for the industry. But we are expecting that because of the pre ‐‐ spending and all these things, and considering 6% GDP growth. The demand for the industry should grow more than 8%. And for UltraTech particularly, since we have commissioned the new capacity, so our growth should be better and that we are seeing that even in the month of April, our growth number is 9%.
Unidentified Participant Okay. And just one related questions here, in terms of when you saw the 9% demand, in terms of the incremental number if the activities higher in terms of higher, or have you seen any pick up infrastructure activities ‐‐ or they continue to be very, very week as?
Unidentified Speaker Unidentified Participant Okay. Sir, actually I move on to the second question I have. In your presentation you've mentioned that you expect 15 million tonne
of capacity addition over next three years. Just wondering have you taken all the capacity expansions into account or if your view that some of the announced capacities will not come through an that's why you only have 50 million tonne coming over next three years. Just a ‐‐
Unidentified Speaker So, if you were given what were, what we feel in the end ‐‐ The announced capacity is much more but we based on our estimate based on actives in the period, we are expecting that in this three years only 15 million tonnes should count.
Unidentified Participant Because just as a data point, even in your Q3 presentation, you were expecting 49 million tonne over next three years, now you're expecting 50 million tonnes, despite yourself another 3 million tonne ground field expansion?
Unidentified Speaker But our 3 million tonnes also is ‐‐ so that are commissioned declared here.
Unidentified Speaker So, when you talk about 15 million tonne, that project ‐‐ has been ‐‐ by this norm, by this time.
Unidentified Participant I got it.
Unidentified Speaker Based on this whatever the activity taken in the field we take in the data intake. Our estimate is that not more than 50 million tonne capacity will come.
Unidentified Participant Okay. Thank you. I'll join my queue.
Unidentified Speaker Thank you.
Operator Ajit Motwani, Analyst Yeah. Thanks for taking my question. My question is regarding the plan VSF capacity globally because your presentation mentions that about 1.3 million tonne and already be commissioned in the last two years. What is the capacity expansions lined up over next three, four years. And what is the visibility on the same?
Jagdishwar Toppo, Analyst In China, of course, the major capacity growth that I've taken place is been is largely in China and their acting is last year's ‐‐ capacity increase at roughly about 500,000 tonne in China. I'm sorry. But how much is the plant capacity globally, sir?
Adesh Gupta, Chief Financial Officer I think globally ‐‐ I just want to talk about announced capacities and of course people are talking about adding again other 500 or
1000 tons. But as I said, that most of it is unlikely to come up.
Unidentified Participant 500,000 tons in 2013, you're saying?
Unidentified Speaker Yeah, that's right.
Unidentified Participant But our next couple of years, three or years if you have ‐‐
Unidentified Speaker Three, four years we ‐‐ we always people can make announcements because of various reasons but I think you have to go by activity on the ground ‐‐ on the extreme of the ground, I think that definitely slow down though I think barring those projects which are down construction in China, we are unlikely to see ‐‐ a major capacity growth coming in.
Again we are subject to fluctuation in marketplaces because we thought it was an ‐‐ their plants the moment there will be an update. We see a deceleration of the plants and softening of markets but I think yearly what we see is what everyone sees in times of the global long‐term scenario for VSF as well as for cotton.
And even that for longer term capacities may come up, but always be ‐‐ I think that ‐‐ of capacity increase which took place, these ‐‐ is going down now even in China
Unidentified Participant Sure. And my second question ‐We keep getting our products ‐‐ you know ‐‐ so improve the numbers we keep coming.
Unidentified Participant Sure. My second question is on your cost last four, five years we've seen your cost have grown up like 50%, so just wanted to know how would the cost sort of move in the near‐term in '14 and '15. And would you still be in top three, four, five players globally as far as the cost is concerned on the VSF side?
Unidentified Speaker Yeah, you know in countries sometimes ‐‐ we have to compare them on different values one is whether we are going on the wages of same cost. Norms being applicable‐‐ consumption and other is the banking part of it, which varies. So even if you see over last five years or even now the last three years ago like what explained even in the presentation you will find it ‐‐ short term. So when we keep looking at ‐‐ in isolation, I think you are seeing a hit but in case of ‐‐ we should there look at costly come ‐‐ where there you will find it. Cost ‐‐ have done much better in last two to three years ago. So that's the sort of ‐‐ having integrated operations over sometimes because of segment of information requirements if we tend to look at the things in a isolated manner.
So clearly on those basis if you ‐‐ on a year‐on‐year our efficiency parameter, the cost of some of the raw materials that I told you that we've taken. The ForEx moment also have that impact because, though, even if you buy any raw material domestically most of them tend to get price in line with the global market because we are ultimately integrated into the global ‐‐
Unidentified Participant Okay.
Unidentified Speaker
There you find that therefore we import significant quantity of ‐‐ because of the domestic non‐availability of ‐‐ so therefore all of those dollar exchange rate also have significant ‐‐ but if you would to see and of course man power cost has been going up which we've managed by terms of optimization of manpower cost.
But ‐‐ manpower cost in India have been going up very fast and the trend we see now in the world over is that every where is the target going on. Even countries like Indonesia and ‐‐ relatively loan for this sort of better labor cost using significant job. So we find a trend coming up in countries like Egypt and ‐‐ . One of the good thing that I think you must, you got also, I would like to highlight this that you should have been tracking also the results of our customers there be extremely good. Which means that if the customers does well hopefully the sometimes have some quality about of that.
Overall factor that emerging including the rupee weakening under new fact for many offset in Indian economy. But especially for some of these aspects of textile industries there are, lot of our customers depend on export they had a good run. At the same time we've problems, I think you all know that in South the power situation is quite challenging.
Unidentified Participant Yes sir. Some of those problems as ‐‐ get resolved with commissioning of some power plant, they can lead to ‐‐ for our customers.
Unidentified Participant Sure, but on an integrated business what will be our standing on the global cost, sir?
Unidentified Speaker I think we are early formed it I think you know I mean ‐‐ this is not that the area we have lot of transperant is there in fact the fast roles of others. So we have to always ‐‐ inference from the numbers that we pickup from different places, but I think based on the possibly we have once a lower quantity.
Unidentified Participant Okay. Thanks, thanks a lot.
Operator Thank you. Our next question is from Anchit Bhagat from Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.
Anchit Bhagat, Analyst Hello.
Unidentified Speaker Yeah.
Anchit Bhagat, Analyst Good morning sir. Sir my first question would be regarding of fuel mix, because the we see that the power in fuel cost has gone down significantly in this quarter, so it because only because the international prices of coal prices remain weak or because the petcoke mix has increased in your overall queue?
Unidentified Speaker Mix? Yeah we are definitely be better in terms of the fuel mix, and during this quarter the petcoke which is the cheapest fuel, our consumption is gone up from ‐‐ by around 14%.
Anchit Bhagat, Analyst So your current fuel mix will be petcoke persentage? Petcoke we use around 40%.
Anchit Bhagat, Analyst Okay.
Unidentified Speaker Yeah.
Anchit Bhagat, Analyst And international ‐‐ Southafrican cool?
Unidentified Speaker They imported these around 30%.
Anchit Bhagat, Analyst Okay, sir do you think that further scope of the petcoke mix to go up especially since your new capacities are coming up and there would be multi‐fuel capacities. So do you think that further scope of petcoke mix going up?
Unidentified Speaker Yeah, that's our continues ‐‐ to optimize on the fuel mix. Number one the petcoke price is also coming down, it's compared to Q4, the imported oil prices is also soften by $2 to $3 so I think our focus is on the energy cost.
Anchit Bhagat, Analyst Okay. But sir actually what we've been hearing is that recently domestic petcoke prices have gone up around INR200 per ton, from the domestic refinery, so have you been seeing any increase in petcoke prices recently in last one, two months?
Unidentified Speaker No I don't think there is any increase in the petcoke prices.
Anchit Bhagat, Analyst Okay. Sir my question would be based on your capacity, so we understood the Chatisgar to ‐‐ unit of commission, so what would be the status on Karnataka and subsequent status ‐‐ unit, held around Karnataka and Chatisgar? Karnataka going to start in this quarter.
Unidentified Speaker Yeah, the Karnataka plan will start in this quarter and adjust to Karnataka ‐‐ graining unit is already commissioned, ‐will be able to coming soon by in Q2.
Unidentified Participant
Okay.
Unidentified Speaker For this year.
Unidentified Participant Okay.
Unidentified Speaker And ‐‐ again the one running unit will commissioned by Q1.
Unidentified Participant Okay.
Unidentified Speaker And just will be commissioned in the ‐‐
Unidentified Participant Okay. And your new capacity in ‐‐ your new capacity that is coming up in Rajasthan. It is only a grinding capacity or clinkerisation also.
Unidentified Speaker It is a clinkerized and ‐‐
Unidentified Speaker We should Clinkerisation plan. Okay.
Unidentified Speaker And a test is that separate for ‐‐
Unidentified Participant Okay. And a bulk terminal, also?
Unidentified Speaker Only the clinkerisation and grinding.
Unidentified Participant Okay, sir few more questions on your sales mix. So your current sales mix between trade and non‐trade would be what?
Unidentified Speaker Trade, we are selling around 69%.
Unidentified Participant Trade is 69%. Okay. And just one last question, would be on your raw material cost, so we've been seeing significant increase in raw material cost for not only you but the other in combined also in the industry. So if you could just throw some color on that why are the raw material price is moving up, is the project some cost or is it the invert transportation cost and raw material that is actually in leading to increase in prices of raw materials?
Unidentified Speaker ‐‐ basically two, three combined take over is year‐on‐year daily just substantial increase in the railway freight by 22%.
Unidentified Participant Okay.
Unidentified Speaker There is increase in the diesel price is by 14%. Headed to that there was ‐‐ either on mining in Karnataka, so ‐‐ price is grown up. And there is a competition for the flyers. So basically, because of ‐‐ railway freight and diesel, the raw material cost, has gone not for the entertain before the industry is hold. Okay. Yeah, sir from my side that much would be it. I'd come back in QA for the questions. Thanks a lot.
Unidentified Speaker Thank you.
Operator Thank you. Our next question is from ‐‐ JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant Yeah. Thank you very much, sir. There is a line in the presentation on the VSF outlook, which says that given current market conditions they needs to be pricing and volume needs to be taken. There should balance between pricing and volumes. So, sir how should we look at data, and does that mean that the utilizations from the new capacity in this financial will be significantly lower or does it mean that the margins from the new facilities will be significantly lower?
Unidentified Speaker No I think what we just wanted to share with you is exactly what you've said that like in the sense that the new capacity is come up and the market conditions are a bit challenging, one ‐‐ just sort of maybe go all over the ‐‐ and tried down the prices for your entire volumes we used that.
So, but again like ‐‐ the charity production which unit does have ‐‐ we are getting good response, now it may take, when the markets are burnt obviously the uptake is much faster. In otherwise, our endeavor would have push me to sell the entire quantity but clearly you don't like ‐‐ aggressive on ‐‐ based on various trend is a balance below to see as a capacity good commission. So again as we discussed in the past that some time the very sharp ‐‐ sometimes if you see ‐‐ come in few months time. I think by the time our ‐‐ who get commission and then will be ramping it ‐‐ initially our ramp up nine by nine from around ‐‐ so clearly I think in July ‐‐ do it. ‐‐ but I think it is something we just in the market ‐‐ challenging on this year to keep that balance.
Unidentified Participant So sir as of now it will be difficult to give any kind of ‐‐ capacity utilization number from the new facility sir?
Unidentified Speaker See the endeavor obviously always is to utilize them fully but like I'm saying that much as you would like ‐‐ is barely ‐find a bit of ‐‐ some ‐‐ you can find it you all because see one of the things which we have been telling why we're seeing this ‐‐ is textile is the long value chain that given the current challenges everybody in the value chain minimizes the ‐‐ so therefore that's the challenge which you must have seen or heard earlier. Let me have a little bit of sharper trend and that's ‐‐ something so let's see ‐‐ when there is a bit of pull from the market and then may be ‐‐ 30 better time than we were not to be there.
Unidentified Participant Unidentified Speaker Yeah actually we doesn't focus on the pricing but you are right that on a ‐‐ post there is ‐‐ opening in the cement ratio.
Unidentified Participant Understood. And sir costs as so far but we have seen should be broadly stable so for compared from Q4 to currently right now.
Unidentified Speaker Yeah that's what I said that there is a softening in the petcock prices. There is softening in imported coke prices. So we don't see much of the cost price that is compared to Q4.
Unidentified Participant Understood. Thank you very much sir.
Unidentified Speaker Thank you.
Operator Thank you. Our next question is from Srihari Seshadri of Sundaram Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant Good morning sir. Hello can you hear me?
Unidentified Speaker Good morning.
Unidentified Participant Sir you've show an decline of 2% volume y‐o‐y in you presentation. Sir, can tell specifically on talk about each region how this has affected in our volumes sir. And also about some the utilization of our company in a different regions.
Unidentified Speaker Unidentified Participant Sir but we you have talked about 94% capacity utilization in terms of production.
Unidentified Speaker Yeah.
Unidentified Participant But our volumes I mean on YonY basis 2% drop so where is this I mean which region has helped us and which has not which has brought us down so that could be helpful for us.
Unidentified Speaker I think the major drop is on a account of Eastern part of the country, Eastern region. North and West did well. But because of some instant region there is some drop in growth.
Unidentified Participant Sir we are hearing on West side sir some of the dealers in Western side commenting that they have lower dispatch of this quarter they have seen some lower Dispatch so that is the reason I am specifically talking quite more about this because, because of the lower bad name expectation of our ‐‐ and all that stuff so have such sales decline in our Western side region and how could it affect our new capacity because I think we are ‐‐ it to the Westerns region.
Unidentified Speaker No I think the Western ‐‐, Gujarat and Maharashtra and we have seen the Gujarat is going more than two digit growth number, and Maharashtra yes the problem of the water and all these things to some extent there is some impact on the demand.
Unidentified Participant But you still see Western region doing good so that what is my ‐‐.
Unidentified Speaker ‐‐ Gujarat and Maharashtra. As right now I don't care the separate number but yes Gujarat is continuously growing with two digit number and there is a project in Maharashtra also.
Unidentified Participant Okay. Thank you sir.
Operator Thank you very much. Our next question from the ‐‐. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant Yes, hi good morning and thank you for the call. Just two question firstly on the SF I think you said earlier in this call that you think margins and pricing don't have more down side from fourth quarter level sir at least not material down side just some ‐‐ on bullish statement relative to what one of your largest competitors has put out in its guidance for fiber more on fiber prices so I just wanted to understand what price your optimize.
And my second is on the cement business, where you recently announced the new expansion at Shambhupura. Please can you help us understand why the brownfield expansion cost seems almost in line with what we think would be a greenfield expansion cost?
Are there again eliminates of large infrastructure development, because this unit has seen infrastructure development only a couple of years ago, when it expanded capacity. So I'll be helpful for some inside there, please I'll be grate full. Thank you.
Unidentified Speaker Of course, like don't want to comment about what the competitor has said, but if you would like to see then the what you've been sharing with ‐‐ that the prices have reached sort of ‐‐ low levels, no upwards I know that, every rupee counts and I know that out of your reaction, what it could be a price exactly to the ‐‐ right difficult to predict for us, because couple of rupees but situation will always take place.
But if you could really see that in the last, five, six quarters, prices have been pretty range marks, now of course, these ‐‐ I know that ‐‐ rupees have a big impact, but it will clearly see that there been pretty range mark. And that because again of the same thing that like we fully agree, like our ‐‐ our competitor could also talk about ore capacity in the globe, small capacity could availability of ‐‐
So all those are facts, and we are not denied them, and in fact ‐‐ could have seen what exactly is what we are also trained. But there are also some there's a point at which point to anyone and largely these pricing do get governed by what pricing starts buying out of China.
And beyond point I think they will also find it difficult to take their prices ‐‐ and that's what we are saying. We are not very foolish, and looking like ‐‐ saying that so the effect of prices to move rapidly. In fact, ‐‐ outlook for the thirty ‐outlook has been muted.
Even then we believe that we prices may not more been hardly largely because portfolio in the fourth quarter because of the impact of the quarterly results which are favor in China. So I think we are not sounding extremely foolish but I don't think we can at this stage, and prices are so low already. I know whether there is ‐‐ so I think I just event statement which I think I maintain last time, so that ‐‐ light movement upload ‐‐ and sometimes you know the value become you know the value chain depending on how even completive not only our currency but, our currency that rolling in different parts of the world ‐‐ have to make some adjustments in the prices to mention that be in our value chain in these competitive.
So those will they think, but I think I'm neither standing counting very foolish not really brinish, and better as I explain to that we have this capacity coming up, therefore that could again you know do believe that there should be good demand for that I would heard ‐‐ some of the product which you need to known where I means that ‐‐, which would be come out with.
Unidentified Speaker ‐‐ thank you for those follow‐up comment, ‐‐ your comment as well. But jus on a volumes then are you think that you know we might see a better year than the 9% growth you have already posted in fiscal '13 or even on volumes you think we should be circumspect.
Unidentified Speaker You see volumes pretty much I think you know when we have this additional 120,000 tons for the ‐‐ speak you to the course, this ‐‐ roughly you know half that coming in extra production but annualize basis ‐‐ now obviously our endeavor as I said is would be to place this product in the market place and certainly if you know in to the extend Indian market would been ‐‐ these products, you know that would be our first equipment, but certainly we also ‐globally everywhere. So you know do with, it would be end of our reach at entire boxes filled in the market ‐‐.
Unidentified Speaker Sir atleast the ‐‐ expantion which is already in stream.
Unidentified Speaker ‐‐ is alerady gone in strame and I think that has got observe thaey could the additional production and seal whic you have got in ‐‐ Q4. The carrier base two is also started now.
Unidentified Participant Sir, the Q4 is sustanaible going foward?
Unidentified Speaker
You know again you must have seen that sort of ‐‐ and lasttime of you have asked me this question ‐‐ you know quarter‐on‐quarter substitin on sales will take place adn currently you know appreciate your‐‐ keen eye. But the fact is that the quarter things, it will keep changing, but if were to look on an annual basis, I think we obviously are ‐‐ through grow the market from where we are today, and domestic ‐‐ export basis certainly we would hope to see our volumes, growth significantly.
Unidentified Participant Thank you ‐‐ I looked forward to the cement?
Unidentified Speaker So what we save is only the land which is available for the plot. Thus everything we are ‐‐ and therefore from 160 to 134 capital course for this plant.
Unidentified Participant Okay. Thank you very much, sir. It's very useful. All the best.
Unidentified Speaker Thank you.
Operator Thank you. Our next question is from ‐‐ Please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant Hi, good morning, sir. My question of VSF, is how much were the exports as a percentage of total in the VSF business, because you've mentioned that the volume growth has higher because of exports?
Unidentified Speaker I think roughly last year, it's about ‐‐
Unidentified Participant Sorry? Last quarter was 30% year ahead?
Unidentified Speaker For big year, it was 30%.
Unidentified Participant And for the quarter?
Unidentified Speaker It was little higher. And sir, which of where the geographies we ‐‐ lead to these growth and how was the competition from China in the geography?
Unidentified Speaker You know we sell globally, and we export about 40 countries, so I think ‐‐ we are present in all ‐‐ VSF market, and so what our competitors for ‐‐ I think by country by country may not be ‐‐ 30 ‐‐ you would have seen that we are able to based on our production in the global market. I guess ‐‐
Unidentified Participant ‐‐ there is cost ‐‐ at where the Chinese players operated. We do not see any competitions from the exports, rightly for our exports market for the time being, quite high capacity in China?
Unidentified Speaker Yet to you ‐‐ and I think you will appreciate two things, I can see in any industries there were ‐‐ perfect ‐‐ and every time the industry market could be constant which is about we would love. But then there would opportunities as for higher profit and sometimes challenging profits will not arise so the same thing they keep talking about China and I think in China again it's a same situation I think earlier all the that shared with you one there is no ‐‐, currently know that some of them are competitive player and we also know that some of them not so ‐‐ players there is no one China ‐secondly again there is no one sort of you can say.
So therefore as you can clear there again adopt different strategy with respect to pricing to where this falls, on cost base I think like I shared with you in consumption ‐‐ I don't think any one of them will be filter of then and as far as the pricing of raw material is concerned that is difficult thus to know the ‐‐ every raw material that they would have for the ‐‐ but we operate the ‐‐ and here is a ‐‐ some raw materials are more expensive there and some are less expensive. But then again depending on the location of the plant out there ‐‐ to the ‐‐ and inland logistics ‐‐ and exports.
For export, I think not that they have any ‐‐ cost advantages over us or the ‐‐ which you see out of China is going to be pricing which is the ‐‐ little free as the ‐‐.
Unidentified Participant Okay, and sir one more thing on our say whether next or next one or two year lending would be entering the Indian market so what is the outlook on the volume growth that we may see it in India post the entry of the ‐‐.
Unidentified Speaker One is the compete on a global basis with ‐‐ so I think we currently we do not worry so much about the ‐‐ entering any competitive any ‐‐ as I holding any other for competitor operating 40 countries globally like ours ‐‐. So certainly we are quite huge global competition, and certainly when two thing happen whenever ‐‐ one is that both the clear is what very hard one to find them ‐‐ because they can share from ‐‐ by it is always one would have to do it but it doesn't happen.
So marginal ‐‐ would be growth of the buy and past of it I think would be the difference of the look how to the extended India market doesn't expand both could now how to look at overseas. That the most likely ‐‐ new competitor and early today we are exporting so much so competition should also feel that ‐‐ domestic demand then why would we
Unidentified Participant Right.
Unidentified Speaker Is that the strategy accordingly, because we certainly have advantage of being any intrinsic player.
Unidentified Participant Right. And sir, on the cement space, I just wanted to know what are the locations as well as the actual capacity of grinding units to linked to Karnataka and Chhattisgarh plant?
Operator Excuse me ‐‐ after this question may be requested to return to the queue please?
Unidentified Participant Okay, bye
Operator Thank you.
Unidentified Speaker Operators how many participants in the queue.
Operator Sir, we got four more questions.
Unidentified Speaker Four?
Unidentified Speaker Okay, we can look.
Unidentified Speaker Unidentified Participant Sure. Thanks.
Operator Thank you. Our next question is from Jinesh Gandhi of Motilal Oswal Securities. Please go ahead.
Jinesh Gandhi, Analyst Thanks, sir. My questions has been answered.
Operator Thank you very much. (Operator Instructions) Our next question is from Naveen Gupta of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Operator There seems to no response. We'll take our next question from ‐‐ Capital. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant Hello?
Unidentified Speaker Yeah.
Unidentified Speaker Yeah.
Unidentified Participant Thanks for giving me an opportunity against it. Sir, one question I wanted to ask is about the competitive intensity does that increase in Maharashtra, so we've been hearing ‐‐ actually ‐‐ dispatching more in Maharashtra in the last six to eight months. So, have you been witnessing any kind of market share losses because of higher dispatches to I mean institutional market ‐‐?
Unidentified Speaker Unidentified Participant Sir, could you repeat please?
Unidentified Speaker I don't see that we have lost market share in Maharashtra.
Unidentified Participant Yeah, thanks.
Operator Thank you. We'll take our last question from Chockalingam Narayanan of Deutsche Bank, please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant Hi, sir thanks for taking my questions. Firstly, on the VSF, typically this is the quarter when water availability is a concern as for see domestic operations are concerned. How do we see that this quarter, how are we placed?
And secondly on investment benefit allowance which was announced in the budget, what sort of benefits could we see on that front?
Unidentified Speaker As ‐‐ we had made a very large reserved ‐‐ I think that should help us seem to summer months of this year and we do not ‐‐ but anyway like India has been currently and we give to ‐‐ monsoon and challenges. We do last year Karnataka as the ‐‐ so there could be some challenges in a year plant. I think that is been for the ‐‐ that there could been now it's very difficult to ‐ quarter two is the revolver and then, if you're lucky may be the monsoon come exactly on time. May be ‐‐ but should the monsoon be delayed by a few days could we have a few days ‐‐ and other thing that I want to share with you is that I think you are all aware that there was a big breach of canal in Gujarat being distracted water supply so there again while we're able to continue to ‐‐ little bit of impact on that ‐‐ volumes this quarter and I think there is ‐‐
So other than that I think the answer which used to be over ‐‐ new reservoir which is been created last year should ease the situation.
Unidentified Participant Okay, okay. And on the investment benefit allowance?
Unidentified Speaker Investment benefit ‐See at the ‐‐ most of the old expenses which are going on actually we will not get the investment loans but for this ‐even Aditiya which ‐‐ we have trained to complete by, on those kind of project then you will definitely get investment along.
Unidentified Participant Okay, and one last thing on VSF, on the new capacities our operating costs are likely to be how much lower than the you know existing capacity in terms of purely operation?
Unidentified Speaker I think it's difficult at this stage for me to give you a ‐‐ number but I don't think it is fare to anyone to expect on unit by unit basis because ‐‐ implications on our disclosing ‐‐ numbers unit wise but ‐‐ latest plans so one would expect them to have better operating efficiencies ‐‐
Unidentified Participant ‐‐ quality side‐‐
Unidentified Speaker ‐‐significant improvement in there. There you may not see huge change but certainly on utilities and manpower cost et cetera that you know ‐‐ much more efficient than older.
Unidentified Participant Sure, sure. Thanks a lot for taking question sir. Thank you.
Unidentified Speaker Thank you.
Unidentified Speaker Thank you.
Operator Thank you very much. As there are no further questions from the participants. I would now like to hand the floor back to Mr. Jagdishwar Toppo for closing comments.
Jagdishwar Toppo, Analyst Operator Sure sir ladies and gentlemen on behalf of Axis Capital Limited, that concludes this conference call. Thank you for joining us and you may now disconnect your line.
Unidentified Speaker Thank you.