gravesham borough council...the retail park element of this floorspace amounts to some 27,121 sqm...

Roger Tym & Partners t: 020 7831 2711 Fairfax House f: 020 7831 7653 15 Fulwood Place e: [email protected] London WC1V 6HU w: www.tymconsult.com

Final Report May 2011

Gravesham Borough Council Health Check Update of Gravesend Town Centre

Health Check Update of Gravesend Town Centre

Job Number: P2058

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CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 1

Context ................................................................................................................................... 1

Approach ................................................................................................................................ 1

2 HEALTH CHECK INDICATORS IN PPS4 .............................................................................. 3

Retail Rankings ...................................................................................................................... 3

A1 Diversity of Main Town Centre Uses ................................................................................. 3

A2 Amount of retail, leisure and office floorspace in edge-of-centre and out-of-centre locations ................................................................................................................................. 5

A3 Potential capacity for growth ............................................................................................. 7

A4 Retailer representation and intentions to change representation ..................................... 7

A5 Shopping rents .................................................................................................................. 9

A6 Proportion of vacant street level property ....................................................................... 10

A7 Commercial yields on non-domestic property ................................................................. 10

A8 Land values and the length of time key sites have remained undeveloped .................... 11

A9 Pedestrian flows (footfall) ................................................................................................ 12

A10 Accessibility .................................................................................................................. 13

A11 Customer and residents’ views and behaviour ............................................................. 13

A12 Perception of safety and occurrence of crime ............................................................... 14

A13 Town Centre Environmental Quality ............................................................................. 15

3 CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................... 16

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 – Diversity of uses in Gravesend 2010 Appendix 2 – Diversity of uses in Gravesend 2008


Final Report | May 2011 1

1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Roger Tym & Partners (RTP) has been instructed by Gravesham Borough Council (GBC)

to update the health check of Gravesend town centre that formed part of the Gravesham Retail & Commercial Leisure Study (RCLS), dated December 2009. The field work for the original health check was undertaken during 2008 and this updated health check in late 2010.

Context 1.2 Since 2008 much has changed in economic and policy terms. It is clear that the economic

climate has resulted in a significant challenge for town centres, with a recent report from the Local Data Company1 painting a picture of either ‘terminal illness or gradual decline’. Many retailers have had a tough time of things, with notable national failures since 2008 including Woolworths, Zavvi and Borders whilst other retailers continue to struggle.

1.3 At a policy level, in December 2009 Planning Policy Statement 4 Planning for Sustainable Economic Growth (PPS4) was published and supersedes PPS6 as the national policy for retail and town centres. This includes a revised set of health check indicators; these largely replicate those in PPS6. However, an important change from PPS6 is the elevation of qualitative need to equal weight as quantitative need when planning for growth (see Policy EC1.4 in PPS4). Therefore, the outputs of such health checks remain important, both when formulating policies and determining planning applications.

1.4 Turning to Gravesend town centre itself, an application for retail development on the Heritage Quarter site, a published Council priority for development to attract retail investment into the town centre, was refused by the Council on 20 September 2010 for reasons including height, bulk and massing of the proposals but not retail related reasons. An appeal was lodged in December 2010 and recovered by the Secretary of State; it is expected to be subject to a Public Inquiry in September 2011.

Approach 1.5 This update revisits the 2008 health check, but uses the updated town centre health check

indicators in Annex D of PPS4 The indicators are:

A1 Diversity of main town centre uses A2 The amount of retail, leisure and office floorspace in edge-of-centre and out-of-

centre locations A3 The potential capacity for growth A4 Retailer representation A5 Shopping rents A6 Proportion of vacant street level property

1 Terminal Illness of Gradual Decline:, A review of GB shop vacancy in 2010 (Local Data Company)



A7 Commercial yields on non-domestic property A8 Land values and the length of time key sites have remained undeveloped A9 Pedestrian flows (footfall) A10 Accessibility A11 Customer and residents’ views and behaviour A12 Perception of safety and occurrence of crime A13 Town Centre Environmental Quality

1.6 This update relies on data from various sources, including FOCUS and Experian Goad, as well as observations from our own visits to Gravesend. The update also included commentary on retail rankings, since this provides an important benchmark for town centre performance. The remainder of this update is structured as follows:

Section 2 examines Gravesend town centre under the PPS4 indicators, explaining changes since 2008 where evident

Section 3 sets out our conclusions



2 HEALTH CHECK INDICATORS IN PPS4 Retail Rankings

2.1 Before assessing the health check indicators in PPS4, we highlight again the performance of Gravesend town centre in published retail rankings. These can assist in benchmarking town centre performance.

2.2 Figure 2.1 below presents the change in Gravesend’s UK ranking between 1995 and 2008. Initially, there was a decline in ranking from 175 in 1995/1996 to 199 in 1998/99 and 2001/01. We expect that this initial decline in ranking was due to the opening of Bluewater shopping centre opening in 1999 that subsequently affected investor confidence in the town centre. Gravesend then improved its ranking to 173rd in 2008 as the town centre responded to competition. However, once the centre was built and trading, retail rankings began to improve again.

Figure 2.1 Gravesend Retail Rankings

Source: MHE Shopping Index 2008

2.3 There is currently no update to the MHE Shopping Index from 2008. However, since there has been no significant town centre investment since 2008, nor any notable additional retailers, we do not expect that Gravesend’s ranking will have substantially improved and at best we expect that it will have remained static.

A1 Diversity of Main Town Centre Uses 2.4 Appendix 1 provides details of the diversity of uses in Gravesend town centre (including

Imperial Retail and Business Park). This data was provided by Experian Goad and updated by RTP site visits in late 2010. The summary of the diversity of uses is provided at Table 2.1 and presented graphically at Figure 2.2.

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Table 2.1 Goad summary for Gravesend Use Class Units in

2010 Floorspace

in 2010 (sqm)

Floorspace in 2010 (%)

Floorspace in 2007 (%)

GB Average (%)

A1 Convenience 33 21,003 21.4% 18.0% 16.7%

A1 Comparison 163 48,423 49.2% 50.5% 51.1%

A1 Service 111 4,313 4.4% 4.3% 4.9%

A2 Financial/ Professional 46 6,544 6.7% 6.7% 7.7%

A3 & A5 57 7,299 7.4% 8.2% 9.2%

Miscellaneous 4 1,425 1.5% 1.7% 1.1%

Vacant 74 9,350 9.5% 10.6% 9.3%

Sub-Total Experian Retail 488 98,356 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Other floorspace2 93 31,363 - - -

GRAND TOTAL 581 129,719 - - -

Source: Goad 2007, updated by RTP 2010.

2.5 The retail property offer in Gravesend is diverse, ranging from property available within the indoor shopping centres - St George's Centre and Thamesgate Shopping Centre - to high street property available at New Road, Windmill Street, King Street and High Street. The average unit size is 247sqm gross, compared to an average of 460 sqm gross at Bluewater3.

2.6 The comparison goods sector accounts for just under half of the retail and service floorspace in Gravesend town centre (down by a small amount from 2008). This proportion is similar to the national average. But it should be noted that 25% of this floorspace falls within the Imperial Retail Park, which is allocated edge of centre in the Local Plan.

2.7 As in 2008, there is a considerable amount of floorspace dedicated to DIY, hardware and household goods - just under 12%, compared to approximately 5% nationally. However, Gravesend has a lower representation than the national average in clothing stores (6% compared to 12% for GB, similar to that found by the 2008 study).

2.8 The convenience goods sector for Gravesend is above the national average, with a strong representation in the grocery and frozen foods sector. According to Kent County Council's Annual Retail Stock Summary (2009) Gravesend has more convenience floorspace than any other town centre in Kent, partly due to the foodstore provision at the Imperial Retail Park.

2 ‘Other floorspace’ is floorspace without a Goad code and thus does not benefit from a UK Average figure, the main relevant use in this category is A4 uses, i.e. public houses 3 Bluewater Retail Audit – Kent County Council, 2006 (A Class uses, including vacant units)



2.9 Restaurants, cafes and takeaways occupy 57 units in Gravesend representing 7,299 sqm. This is 7.4% of the floorspace in Gravesend, slightly below the national average of 9% and represents a reduction since 2008. Financial and professional services occupy approximately 7% of the floorspace, which is in line with the national average and identical to the position in 2008.

2.10 Overall, the changes in the diversity of uses since 2008 are relatively minor on their own. The vacancy level has reduced slightly (as explained below), with the convenience sector improving since 2008. The size of the retail units on offer is relatively small compared to modern standards and may have tempered published demand (explained below).

2.11 Additionally, a minor concern surrounds the reduction in the number of A3-A5 units, which can often add vibrancy and diversity to a town centre particularly if this contributes to a ‘café culture’. Therefore, we recommend that the number of A3-A5 uses is monitored to ensure there is variety in the town centre offer, but also to ensure these uses to not become overly dominant and diluting the Gravesend’s retail function.

A2 Amount of retail, leisure and office floorspace in edge-of-centre and out-of-centre locations

2.12 There are two large foodstores serving Gravesend which are located outside the centre – Sainsbury’s, Wingfield Bank, Northfleet (7,644 sqm gross) and Morrisons, Coldbarbour Road, Northfleet (5,388 sqm gross). Since 2008, permission has been granted to extend the Sainsbury’s at Northfleet by some 5,484 sqm gross. It is anticipated that this extension will relieve the observed overtrading of the existing store, provide an improved superstore offer, serve housing growth at Springhead as well as resolve a highways conflict.

2.13 It should be noted that the Imperial Retail and Business Park is included within the Experian Goad definition of Gravesend town centre, but is located outside the designated Local Plan town centre. The retail park element of this floorspace amounts to some 27,121 sqm gross, whilst the Asda store amounts to 10,680 sqm gross.

2.14 Additionally, whilst not out of centre per se, there are two new Tesco Express stores located in local centres; one at Valley Drive and one at Perry Street. There is also a Tesco Express store under construction in the local centre at Whitehill Road.

2.15 We understand from the council there is interest in further retail floorspace (A1 use without restrictions) in Imperial Retail Park.

2.16 The majority of the retail floorspace outside Gravesend’s designated town centre is in an edge of centre location (namely the Imperial Retail Park). Otherwise, out of centre floorspace is limited to two superstores (Sainsbury’s and Morrisons. Whilst we are not aware of any significant new out of centre retail developments opening since 2008, Sainsbury’s have secured permission to extend their store. Whilst we consider the balance between town and out of centre floorspace is appropriate, any significant expansion of out of centre retail floorspace should be carefully controlled and monitored and investment, particularly in the comparison sector, should primarily be directed to Gravesend town centre.



Figure 2.2 Diversity of use in Gravesend



A3 Potential capacity for growth 2.17 This indicator is typically measured by the amount of land available for new of more

intensive forms of town centre development. There are a number of sites in Gravesend town centre that have the potential for growth, including the Heritage Quarter, Transport Quarter and a site on Lord Street.

2.18 The Heritage Quarter site is approximately 5.8 hectares and has long been a published Council priority for development to attract retail investment into the town centre. Edinburgh House Estates Limited (EHEL) has promoted a non food retail development on the site, representing between 11,195 and 12,605 sqm gross retail floorspace, including an option for a small food supermarket.

2.19 The Heritage Quarter scheme has been designed to meet primarily a comparison goods need to provide much needed investment into the town centre. As explained in Section 1, an application was refused in September 2010 on the grounds of height, bulk and massing of the proposals. It is now subject to an appeal, expected to be heard at a public local inquiry in September 2011.

2.20 Proposals for the Transport Quarter include a public transport interchange with some limited retail provision. The future of the island block (Darnley Road, New Road, Garrick Street and Barrack Row) is still to be considered. In addition there is the Lord Street site, temporarily in use as a car park. There are proposals for mixed use development with a small retail component on this site, but we understand that other forms of development could come forward.

2.21 We expect that other opportunities for growth in the town centre will be considered as part of the LDF process.

2.22 Whilst we are not aware of any new sites coming forward since 2008, the statuses of the sites that do exist have changed. The main change is the progress of the Heritage Quarter site. Whilst we appreciate that the application was refused on design grounds, we understand that the principal of a retail led scheme on the site has been accepted by all parties.

A4 Retailer representation and intentions to change representation 2.23 Gravesend town centre has a wide range of national multiples, including Asda, Primark,

Marks and Spencer, BHS, Boots, Lloyds TSB, HSBC, WH Smith, McDonalds, Barclays, Debenhams, and New Look. Gravesend benefits from 58% of Goad's 31 "major retailers" and is identical to the position in 2008. Goad "major retailers" not present in Gravesend include John Lewis and House of Fraser (which we would not expect in a town centre the size of Gravesend), Next, Topshop, River Island, HMV and Waterstones, as well as Waitrose and Sainsbury.

2.24 Intention to change representation is a dynamic indicator, since it often is influenced by structural changes in the industry whilst often demand is only recreated once a scheme is being built. For the purposes of this health check, we rely on data from the FOCUS property database, as illustrated by Figure 2.3 below.



2.25 The FOCUS data show a gradual increase in the number of retailer requirements in Gravesend town centre between April 1999 and April 2007. This indicated that the centre was experiencing some level of perceived revitalisation in investment interest. Although this might have been due to the wider buoyancy in the economy during these years.

2.26 From April 2007, retailer requirements started to decline. This reflected a national trend; according to Verdict4, "Due to slowing consumer demand many retailers are increasingly being more cautious in regard to their expansion plans". In November 2008 there were 16 requirements for floorspace in Gravesend (as reported in the previous study), and currently there are only three, none of which are for A1. The three current requirements in Gravesend are:

Papa John's Pizza (A5) Mr Bean Coffee House (A3) Burger King (A5)

Figure 2.3 Retail Demand in Gravesend

Source: Retail FOCUS, December 2010

2.27 We understand from the council there is interest in further retail floorspace (A1 use without restrictions) in Imperial Retail Park and to some extent in the Heritage Quarter, but not in the town centre itself.

4 UK Town Centre Retailing 2008



2.28 Whilst the overall retailer representation has remained the same since 2008, the intentions to change have reduced. On one hand, we expect that this downward trend is due to the economic downturn. However, we have also noted that the retail property offer in the town is relatively constrained (in terms of the size of units offered) and therefore we expect that this will have contributed to the significant reduction in published demand.

A5 Shopping rents 2.29 Retail rents5 in Gravesend averaged at £431 per sqm per annum between 2000 and 2003.

Since then rents steadily increased to £484 in 2004, £538 in 2005/2006, and reached £592 per sqm per annum in 2007 / 2008 before decreasing to £484 in 2009. This decline is likely an effect of the economic downturn. This trend is illustrated in Figure 2.5 below.

2.30 Figure 2.4 also shows that rents in Gravesend, despite an increase in recent years, are still much lower than rents in Chatham, Maidstone, Tunbridge Wells and Bexley. One comparable centre in terms of retail rents is Dartford, where rental trends are similar to Gravesend.

Figure 2.4 Retail Rents

Source: Colliers CRE, via FOCUS (NB: no data available for Bexley for 2009)

2.31 While the data shows rents have decreased in Gravesend since 2008, we do not consider this necessarily to be firm evidence of declining health in the centre. These data show that rents have decreased at similar rates across several nearby centres. Therefore, we

5 Zone A rent relates to a hypothetical shop unit of optimum size and configuration, in the most popular location (prime pitch)

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anticipate that this is likely to be a national trend affecting a number of centres, particularly secondary in nature (i.e. lower than City centres or very large town centres).

A6 Proportion of vacant street level property 2.32 According to our updated Goad survey6 there are 74 vacant units in Gravesend town

centre, which equates to a vacancy rate of 15.2% by unit, above the GB average of 11.0%. However, only 9.5% of town centre floorspace is vacant, only slightly above the national average of 9.3% and below the Kent town centres average of 13%7. This is perhaps a reflection of the number of small units in the town. Vacancy has improved slightly since the previous study (10.5%).

2.33 There are a number of small to medium-sized vacant units located in the north-eastern quarter of Gravesend town centre, mainly along the northern end of High Street (Heritage Quarter) and Queen Street, as well as some along Harmer Street. Importantly, there were four vacant units within the St George's Shopping Centre - two of them are medium sized (240 sqm and 420 sqm) and two are small (40 sqm and 11 sqm). Apart from these vacancies, the 'core' of Gravesend town centre (New Road, Windmill Street, most of King Street and the Thamesgate Shopping Centre) is well occupied.

2.34 From our observations we have noted that large units do not appear to remain vacant for long periods – the large unit which housed Woolworths until the company closed down, for example, is now occupied by Life & Style, and the unit at 140-143 Milton Road which was vacant at the time of the previous survey is now occupied, although by a firm of lawyers rather than retail use.

2.35 Vacancy by floorspace has improved in Gravesend since 2008, in a period where the national trend has been towards increased vacancy due to the economic downturn. This suggests that Gravesend is performing relatively well under this indicator. However, this indicator should be carefully monitored, particularly if clusters of vacancies begin to appear in core parts of the town centre.

A7 Commercial yields on non-domestic property 2.36 Figure 2.5 below illustrates that the prime yields8 in Gravesend steadily improved between

2000 and 2008. In 2000 yields were 11.5%; this strengthened to 7.5% by January 2007. In comparison with other centres, the retail yields in Gravesend were weaker in 2000, however to 2008 they dropped and have been comparable to Dartford, Chatham and Bexleyheath, for example. However, Gravesend yields are still considerably weaker than the yields of Bluewater in Dartford Borough, which for the same time period varied between 6% and 5.25%.

6 May 2007, updated by RTP December 2010. 7 Kent County Council Annual Retail Stock Summary, October 2009 8 The yields quoted are ‘all risk yields’ calculated by dividing the annual rent, as though it had been received as a single sum at the year end, by the capital value or sale price of the property. Broadly speaking, low yields indicate that a town is considered to be attractive and as a result be more likely to attract investment than a town with high yields.



2.37 The Valuation Office Agency (VOA) stopped issuing yield data in 2008 and we are not aware of any other published data source for yield information. However, based on data supplied to us for other centres in the UK from national surveying firms, we expect that yields will be significantly weaker since the economic downturn. If we are right and this trend continues this could potentially jeopardise the ability of Gravesend to attract investment and deliver growth in retail floorspace.

Figure 2.5 Gravesend and other Centres Retail Yields

Source: Valuations Office Property Market Report, 2008

A8 Land values and the length of time key sites have remained undeveloped

2.38 We identified three sites for indicator A3, the potential capacity for growth – the Heritage Quarter, Transport Quarter and Lord Street. Each of these is still undeveloped two years later. The Heritage Quarter is the largest of these sites and a published Council priority for development, and a recent planning permission for development was refused on design grounds.

2.39 There is no public information on the land values and we are not aware of any new sites coming forward since 2008. Since 2008, development finance is much harder to come by and developers are unlikely to proceed without pre-lets. Therefore, whilst we have no hard data on land values, we expect the viability of sites will need careful consideration. Indeed, schemes that were potentially viable in 2007/2008 might not be now, a view supported by the large number of stalled shopping centre schemes across the country.



A9 Pedestrian flows (footfall) 2.40 Pedestrian flow data and footfall data for Gravesend centre were provided for us in 2010 by

Gravesham Borough Council. Pedestrian flows provide the most basic measure of the number of visitors to a shopping centre. The number of visitors may be translated into potential economic transactions and therefore this indicator gives some idea of the vitality of a place. Footfall data was collected for Gravesend town centre for the period of April - August in 2006, 2008 and 2010. It was collected on weekdays and Saturdays in 2006, and on weekdays only in 2008 and 2010, in the eastern end of New Road, between McDonalds and Primark.

2.41 The main trends displayed, as expected, are more people out on the streets at around lunchtime (1 – 2PM) (refer to Figure 2.6 below); and that there were more pedestrians on the street on a Saturday than during the week. Since 2008 pedestrian numbers have increased during all three time intervals, as well as becoming more consistent from week to week; both of these observations indicate the centre has performed well.

Figure 2.6 Pedestrian Numbers for three time intervals in 2008

2.42 In addition, Figure 2.7 below indicates that there has been little variation in the average footfall numbers in Gravesend town centre between 2006 and 2010.

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Figure 2.7 Number of Pedestrians per hour for 2006 and 2008

2.43 Since 2008 pedestrian numbers have increased slightly during this interval, as well as becoming more consistent from week to week; both of these observations indicate the centre has performed well in terms of footfall.

A10 Accessibility 2.44 In terms of transport, Gravesend town centre is well connected by buses and trains,

connecting to London St Pancras in 24 minutes; in December 2009 two additional London St Pancras train services per hour to were introduced. There are several car parking areas in the centre - Thamesgate Shopping Centre (320 spaces), St George's Centre (410 spaces), Parrock Street (648 spaces), Horn Yard (120 spaces) and Market Square (80 spaces) as well as more than 1,900 car parking spaces at the Imperial Retail Park.

2.45 Although little of note has changed in terms of accessibility by private car, the two additional train services per hour introduced since 2008 significantly improves the centre’s public transport accessibility, which could potentially have a positive affect on vitality and viability. It is possible that the introduction of the new services has resulted in an increase in the numbers of visitors, as evidenced by the footfall data under indicator A9, above.

A11 Customer and residents’ views and behaviour 2.46 The household telephone survey conducted for Kent County Council (KCC) in 2007

indicated where people are choosing to shop but did not survey customers’ views and behaviour, and we are not aware of any up to date surveys which do so. Therefore, moving forward, we recommend that the Council commission such a survey to understand the needs of shoppers visiting Gravesend.

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A12 Perception of safety and occurrence of crime 2.47 The property website www.upmystreet.com holds data derived from Home Office data

collected by the police that provide crime statistics by local authority, broken down by type and compared against the national average. The statistics for Gravesham are at Table 2.2 below.

2.48 These figures suggest that crime in Gravesham is slightly above average, particularly criminal damage and violence against the person. However it is important to note that the figures refer to the Borough as a whole and we expect crime activities to be higher within the town centre itself. Indeed, we note that UK police force website describes the Gravesham North West – Pelham neighbourhood (which covers Gravesend town centre) as having an “above average” level of crime and reports 29.1 crimes per 1000 people in January 2011.

Table 2.2 Crime rate per 1,000 people in Gravesham Gravesham Average

Population 97,700 -

Households 41,000 -

Burglaries 10.1 11.0

Criminal damage 19.8 17.0

Drug offences 3.6 4.0

Fraud and forgery 3.7 3.0

Offences against vehicles 12.3 11.0

Other offences 1.0 1.0

Other theft offences 17.2 20.0

Robbery 0.8 1.0

Sexual offences 1.1 1.0

Violence against the person 18.9 16.0

Source: www.upmystreet.com. Data is supplied by the Home Office based on data collected by police forces in

England and Wales between 2008 and 2009

2.49 Whilst we have no evidence that there has been a significant increase in crime since 2008, this data shows that crimes are above average in the Borough and the town centre in particular. Therefore, we consider that the Council should monitor these data and if necessary work with other stakeholders to reduce crime numbers in the town centre if there is evidence that perception of crime is beginning to dissuade shoppers from using the town centre.



A13 Town Centre Environmental Quality 2.50 Gravesend town centre has a well-defined retail core, which is pedestrian-only during the

day. It consists of St George's and Thamesgate Shopping Centre and New Road, Windmill Street and High Street. This part of Gravesend centre is generally well-maintained, clean and pedestrian-friendly. Continued maintenance and management is important.

2.51 The core of the centre contains traditional and modern buildings. Shop frontages are generally well-kept, but some are in need of attention, especially in the peripheral areas. The separation of vehicles and pedestrians during the day is positive for the environmental quality for visitors and improves safety.

2.52 To the north-west of the main core is the Imperial Retail and Business Park. This area is a more vehicle-oriented environment, although it can be easily reached on foot from the town centre via an escalator to Asda. The park includes a number of larger bulky goods shops and associated car parking. The park is well-maintained and clean, with a number of trees lining the streets and parking areas.

2.53 There have been no significant changes to the physical fabric or the shopping environment since 2008, and that the environmental quality has remained good in the retail core and most other areas although poor in some peripheral areas.



3 CONCLUSIONS 3.1 Gravesend town centre consists of a pedestrianised core, where most of the retail is

located, including individual shops, as well as the St George's Centre and Thamesgate Shopping Centre. The Imperial Retail Park is located to the north-west of the main retail core. It comprises mostly larger-format retail, such as a bed superstore, Lidl and Asda supermarkets, and a DIY and garden centre. The Asda supermarket is connected to the main retail core by an escalator to deal with the change in level.

3.2 This update to the health check has included a fresh audit of the town centre, an update of the diversity of uses and an overall update of all health check indicators where fresh data is available. This update also utilises the new health check indicators in PPS4, although these are broadly similar to those in PPS6. Our main findings on the health of Gravesend town centre, and the changes since 2008, are as follows:

Changes to the diversity of uses have been minor, although the convenience sector has slight improved in this period and there is a slight concern over the reduction in A3-A5 uses

The amount of retail floorspace in out of centre locations remains the same, but we are aware that Sainsbury’s has achieved permission for its store in Northfleet, whilst there are two new Tesco Express stores in local centres

The capacity for growth in Gravesend town centre remains the same, with no new development sites have come forward, but we are aware that there has been progress with the Heritage Quarter application and this will be determined following a local public inquiry, likely to be in September

Gravesend has a range of national multiples with 18 of Experian Goad's 31 major retailers represented, but the published demand for additional space has reduced significantly which we expect is partly due partly due to the economic downturn and partly due to the constrained nature of the existing retail stock

Zone A rents have decreased since 2008, although we expect that this is part of a more structural change to the economic conditions

The proportion of vacant floorspace in the centre has improved despite the economic downturn

Published commercial yields have not been updated since 2008, although we expect that they will have weakened for all centres due to economic conditions

All potential development sites identified in 2008 have remained undeveloped and although we have no hard data on land values, we expect the viability of retail schemes to be more marginal

Footfall has increased since 2008 and become more consistent from week to week Accessibility by train has improved since 2008, with two additional train services per

hour to London St Pancras introduced Crime in Gravesend is slightly above the national average, particularly criminal damage

and violent crimes



The environmental quality is generally good, and has not altered significantly since the previous study.

3.3 Gravesend town centre is relatively healthy and performs well against a number of health check indicators, although less so than when research for the previous study was undertaken in 2008. Due to challenging trading conditions, it difficult to conclude with any certainty as to whether indications of poor performance are a reflective of Gravesend individually or are nationwide trends.

3.4 The message from this health check is there is ‘gradual decline’ (using the LDC terminology). Whilst Gravesend town centre is broadly meeting its function today, there has been no significant investment in the town for over 20 years and although there are developments in the pipeline, the timescales for their delivery are far from certain. There are indicators that the centre is beginning to suffer and if investment is not delivered in the next 5-10 years, we expect that Gravesend will suffer as competing centres strengthen. In any event, the health of the centre should continue to be monitored carefully.


Final Report | March 2011 A1

APPENDIX 1

Diversity of uses in Gravesend 2010

No. of units % of Total GB Average %Index

(GB=100)

Floorspace

(sq.m)% of Total GB Average %

Index

(GB=100)

G1A Bakers 2 0.41% 1.91% 21 242 0.25% 0.99% 25

G1B Butchers 2 0.41% 0.74% 55 143 0.15% 0.41% 35

G1C Greengrocers & fishmongers 2 0.41% 0.65% 63 200 0.20% 1.46% 14

G1D Grocery and frozen foods 21 4.30% 2.80% 154 19465 19.79% 11.82% 167

G1E Off-licences and home brew 1 0.20% 0.68% 30 109 0.11% 0.45% 25

G1F Confectioners, tobacconists, newsagents 5 1.02% 2.28% 45 844 0.86% 1.52% 56

TOTAL 33 6.76% 9.06% 75 21,003 21.35% 16.65% 128

G2A Footwear & repair 7 1.43% 2.33% 62 1088 1.11% 1.64% 67

G2B Men's & boys’ wear 2 0.41% 1.20% 34 492 0.50% 0.97% 52

G2C Women's, girls, children's clothing 13 2.66% 5.52% 48 2574 2.62% 4.72% 55

G2D Mixed and general clothing 9 1.84% 3.38% 55 2665 2.71% 5.60% 48

G2E Furniture, carpets & textiles 23 4.71% 3.97% 119 6322 6.43% 4.47% 144

G2F Booksellers, arts/crafts, stationers/copy bureaux 6 1.23% 4.19% 29 1271 1.29% 3.38% 38

G2G Electrical, home entertainment, telephones and video 19 3.89% 4.56% 85 3052 3.10% 3.50% 89

G2H DIY, hardware & household goods 10 2.05% 2.85% 72 11532 11.73% 4.97% 236

G2I Gifts, china, glass and leather goods 7 1.43% 1.69% 85 1036 1.05% 0.89% 118

G2J Cars, motorcycles & motor accessories 3 0.61% 1.31% 47 877 0.89% 2.01% 44

G2K Chemists, toiletries & opticians 9 1.84% 3.95% 47 2182 2.22% 4.08% 54

G2L Variety, department & catalogue showrooms 5 1.02% 0.93% 110 8065 8.20% 8.52% 96

G2M Florists and gardens 3 0.61% 1.00% 61 192 0.20% 0.44% 44

G2N Sports, toys, cycles and hobbies 9 1.84% 2.39% 77 1456 1.48% 2.44% 61

G2O Jewellers, clocks & repair 11 2.25% 2.33% 97 1087 1.11% 1.04% 106

G2P Charity shops, pets and other comparison 27 5.53% 3.73% 148 4532 4.61% 2.48% 186

TOTAL 163 33.40% 45.32% 74 48,423 49.23% 51.14% 96

G3A Restaurants, cafes, coffee bars, fast food & take-aways 57 11.68% 14.34% 81 7299 7.42% 9.16% 81

G3B Hairdressers, beauty parlours & health centres 37 7.58% 7.33% 103 3478 3.54% 3.52% 100

G3C Laundries & drycleaners 2 0.41% 0.96% 43 141 0.14% 0.45% 32

G3D Travel agents 72 14.75% 1.62% 911 694 0.71% 0.94% 75

TOTAL 111 22.75% 9.91% 230 4,313 4.39% 4.91% 89

G3E Banks & financial services (incl. accountants) 18 3.69% 4.41% 84 2897 2.95% 4.92% 60

G3F Building societies 2 0.41% 0.67% 61 177 0.18% 0.56% 32

G3G Estate agents & auctioneers 26 5.33% 3.90% 137 3470 3.53% 2.20% 160

TOTAL 46 9.43% 8.98% 105 6,544 6.65% 7.68% 87

G4A Employment, careers, Post Offices and information 4 0.82% 1.32% 62 1425 1.45% 1.12% 129

G4B Vacant units (all categories) 74 15.16% 11.07% 137 9,350 9.51% 9.34% 102

EXPERIAN RETAIL TOTAL 488 100.00% 100.00% - 98,356 100.00% 100.00% -

Drinking Establishments 22 - - - 4,310 - - -

Business 30 - - - 7,745 - - -

Non-Residential Institutions 12 - - - 8,237 - - -

Assembly and Leisure 11 - - - 8,243 - - -

Vacant Units 7 - - - 1,017 - - -

Sui Generis 11 - - - 1,810 - - -

OTHER USES TOTAL 93 - - - 31,363 - - -

GRAND TOTAL 581 - - - 129,719 - - -

Goad Code Operator Type

No. of Units Floorspace

Number (and %) of Convenience Goods Outlets

Number (and %) of Vacant Units

Number (and%) of Commercial Floorspace, with no Goad Code

Number (and %) of Comparison Goods Outlets

Number (and %) of A3 & A5 Service Uses

Number (and %) of A1 Service Uses

Number (and %) of Financial & Professional Services

Number (and %) of Miscellaneous Uses


Final Report | March 2011 A2

APPENDIX 2

Diversity of uses in Gravesend 2008

No. of units % of Total GB Average %Index

(GB=100)Floorspace

(sq.m)% of Total GB Average %

Index(GB=100)

G1A Bakers 3 0.71% 1.91% 37 260 0.27% 0.99% 27

G1B Butchers 2 0.47% 0.74% 64 150 0.15% 0.41% 38

G1C Greengrocers & fishmongers 3 0.71% 0.65% 109 1250 1.29% 1.46% 88

G1D Grocery and frozen foods 12 2.84% 2.80% 102 15040 15.48% 11.82% 131

G1E Off-licences and home brew 1 0.24% 0.68% 35 120 0.12% 0.45% 27

G1F Confectioners, tobacconists, newsagents 8 1.90% 2.28% 83 710 0.73% 1.52% 48

TOTAL 29 6.87% 9.06% 76 17,530 18.05% 16.65% 108

G2A Footwear & repair 7 1.66% 2.33% 71 1080 1.11% 1.64% 68

G2B Men's & boys’ wear 2 0.47% 1.20% 39 500 0.51% 0.97% 53

G2C Women's, girls, children's clothing 14 3.32% 5.52% 60 2030 2.09% 4.72% 44

G2D Mixed and general clothing 8 1.90% 3.38% 56 2540 2.61% 5.60% 47

G2E Furniture, carpets & textiles 22 5.21% 3.97% 131 6200 6.38% 4.47% 143

G2F Booksellers, arts/crafts, stationers/copy bureaux 12 2.84% 4.19% 68 2550 2.63% 3.38% 78

G2G Electrical, home entertainment, telephones and video 21 4.98% 4.56% 109 2950 3.04% 3.50% 87

G2H DIY, hardware & household goods 14 3.32% 2.85% 116 12270 12.63% 4.97% 254

G2I Gifts, china, glass and leather goods 6 1.42% 1.69% 84 980 1.01% 0.89% 113

G2J Cars, motorcycles & motor accessories 5 1.18% 1.31% 90 1620 1.67% 2.01% 83

G2K Chemists, toiletries & opticians 12 2.84% 3.95% 72 2490 2.56% 4.08% 63

G2L Variety, department & catalogue showrooms 5 1.18% 0.93% 127 8090 8.33% 8.52% 98

G2M Florists and gardens 4 0.95% 1.00% 95 240 0.25% 0.44% 56

G2N Sports, toys, cycles and hobbies 11 2.61% 2.39% 109 1880 1.94% 2.44% 79

G2O Jewellers, clocks & repair 9 2.13% 2.33% 92 870 0.90% 1.04% 86

G2P Charity shops, pets and other comparison 16 3.79% 3.73% 102 2760 2.84% 2.48% 115

TOTAL 168 39.81% 45.32% 88 49,050 50.49% 51.14% 99

G3A Restaurants, cafes, coffee bars, fast food & take-aways 60 14.22% 14.34% 99 8000 8.24% 9.16% 90

G3B Hairdressers, beauty parlours & health centres 37 8.77% 7.33% 120 3360 3.46% 3.52% 98

G3C Laundries & drycleaners 3 0.71% 0.96% 74 250 0.26% 0.45% 57

G3D Travel agents 6 1.42% 1.62% 88 540 0.56% 0.94% 59

TOTAL 46 10.90% 9.91% 110 4,150 4.27% 4.91% 87

G3E Banks & financial services (incl. accountants) 17 4.03% 4.41% 91 2980 3.07% 4.92% 62

G3F Building societies 2 0.47% 0.67% 71 180 0.19% 0.56% 33

G3G Estate agents & auctioneers 27 6.40% 3.90% 164 3340 3.44% 2.20% 156

TOTAL 46 10.90% 8.98% 121 6,500 6.69% 7.68% 87

G4A Employment, careers, Post Offices and information 5 1.18% 1.32% 90 1660 1.71% 1.12% 153

G4B Vacant units (all categories) 68 16.11% 11.07% 146 10,250 10.55% 9.34% 113

EXPERIAN RETAIL TOTAL 422 100.00% 100.00% - 97,140 100.00% 100.00% -

Number (and %) of Comparison Goods Outlets

Goad Code Operator TypeNo. of Units Floorspace

Number (and %) of Convenience Goods Outlets

Number (and %) of A3 & A5 Service Uses

Number (and %) of A1 Service Uses

Number (and %) of Financial & Professional Services

Number (and %) of Miscellaneous Uses

Number (and %) of Vacant Units

gravesham borough council...the retail park element of this floorspace amounts to some 27,121 sqm...

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