Great Plains Thunder Express 21st Century style

2012 drought

1930s dust bowl

Great Plains aquifer hot spots increasing

2080 Temperature Rise - BAU

(no. countries)

2050 Water Supply Sustainability Index with climate impact

1930s Dust bowl - Reprisal in our future?

Great Plains Dust Bowl in 1930sAgain this century, but worse

Business-as-Usual CO2 Emissions Trigger Great Plains Dust Bowlification this Century

Dallas, South Dakota 1936

Time to Think Beyond the Boxto Home on the Range

Figures  of  MeritGreat  Plains  area

1,200,000  mi2

Provide  100%  U.S.  energy400,000  3MW  wind  turbines

PlaCorm  footprint6  mi2

Large  Wyoming  Strip  Mine>6  mi2

Total  WindFarm  spacing  area  37,500  mi2

SLll  available  for  farming  and  prairie  restoraLon

90%+  (34,000  mi2)

Cost-­‐free  US  CO2  emissions80%  reduced  at  zero  cost  

95% U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains

for the contiguous U.S. will be discussed in more detail in thenext section. If the top 10 CO2 emitting countries were orderedin terms of wind power potential, Russia would rank number 1,followed by Canada with the U.S. in the third position. There isan important difference to be emphasized, however, betweenwind power potential in the abstract and the fraction of theresource that is likely to be developed when subjected to realisticeconomic constraints. Much of the potential for wind power inRussia and Canada is located at large distances from populationcenters. Given the inevitably greater expense of establishingwind farms in remote locations and potential public oppositionto such initiatives, it would appear unlikely that these resourceswill be developed in the near term. Despite these limitations, itis clear that wind power could make a significant contribution tothe demand for electricity for the majority of the countries listedin Table 1, in particular for the 4 largest CO2 emitters, China, theU.S., Russia, and Japan. It should be noted, however, theresource for Japan is largely confined to the offshore area, 82%of the national total. To fully exploit these global resources willrequire inevitably significant investment in transmission systemscapable of delivering this power to regions of high load demand.

The electricity that could be generated potentially on a globalbasis by using wind, displayed as a function of an assumedcapacity factor cutoff on installed turbines, is presented in Fig.3 for onshore (A) and offshore (B) environments. The results inFig. 3A suggest that total current global consumption of elec-tricity could be supplied by wind while restricting installation ofland-based turbines to regions characterized by most favorablewind conditions, regions where the turbines might be expectedto function with capacity factors !53%. If the cutoff capacityfactor were lowered to 36%, the energy content of electricitygenerated by using wind with land-based turbines globally wouldbe equivalent to total current global consumption of energy in allforms. Cutoff capacity factors needed to accommodate similar

objectives with offshore resources would need to be reduced asindicated in Fig. 3B. To place these considerations in context, wewould note that capacity factors realized by turbines installed inthe U.S. in 2004 and 2005 have averaged close to 36% (18).

Wind Power Potential for the United StatesAn estimate of the electricity that could be generated for thecontiguous U.S. on a monthly basis (subject to the siting andcapacity limitations noted above) is illustrated for both onshoreand offshore environments in Fig. 4. Results presented here werecomputed by using wind data for 2006. Not surprisingly, the windpower potential for both environments is greatest in winter,peaking in January, lowest in summer, with a minimum inAugust. Onshore potential for January, according to the resultspresented in Fig. 4, exceeds that for August by a factor of 2.5: thecorresponding ratio computed for offshore locations is slightlylarger, 2.9.

Fig. 4 includes also monthly data for consumption of electricityin the U.S. during 2006. Demand for electricity exhibits abimodal variation over the course of a year with peaks in summerand winter, minima in spring and fall. Demand is greatest insummer during the air-conditioning season. Summer demandexceeds the minimum in spring/fall demand typically by between25% and 35% on a U.S. national basis depending on whethersummers are unusually warm or relatively mild. The correlationbetween the monthly averages of wind power production andelectricity consumption is negative. Very large wind powerpenetration can produce excess electricity during large parts ofthe year. This situation could allow options for the conversion ofelectricity to other energy forms. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles,for example, could take advantage of short-term excesses inelectricity system, while energy-rich chemical species such as H2could provide a means for longer-term storage.

Fig. 4. Monthly wind energy potential for the contiguous U.S. in 2006 withmonthly electricity consumption for the entire U.S.

Fig. 5. Annual onshore wind energy potential on a state-by-state basis for thecontiguous U.S. expressed in TWh (A) and as a ratio with respect to retail sales inthe states (2006) (B). For example, the potential source for North Dakota exceedscurrent total electricity retail sales in that state by a factor of 360. Data source fortotal electricity retail sales was www.eia.doe.gov.

Table 2. Annual wind energy potential onshore and offshore forthe world and the contiguous U.S.

Areas

Worldwide, PWh Contiguous U.S., PWh

No CFlimitation

20% CFlimitation

No CFlimitation

20% CFlimitation

Onshore 1,100 690 84 62Offshore 0–20 m 47 42 1.9 1.2Offshore 20–50 m 46 40 2.6 2.1Offshore 50–200 m 87 75 2.4 2.2Total 1,300 840 91 68

Analysis assumes loss of 20% and 10% of potential power for onshore andoffshore, respectively, caused by interturbine interference. Analysis assumesoffshore siting distance within 50 nm (92.6 km) of the nearest shoreline.

4 of 6 ! www.pnas.org"cgi"doi"10.1073"pnas.0904101106 Lu et al.

for comparisonU.S. total power consumption in 2012 was 5,000 TWh

US Onshore Wind Potential(TWh, billions of kWh)

10

The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains =Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)

Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product.

Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while  also  enabling  one  of  world’s  largest  restorations of native prairie ecosystems

How?

Wind Farm Royalties – Could Doublefarm/ranch income with 30x less land area

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250

windpower farm

non-wind farm

US Farm Revenues per hectare

govt. subsidy $0 $60windpower royalty $200 $0farm commodity revenues $50 $64

windpower farm non-wind farm

Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/

Crop revenue Govt. subsidy

Wind profits

Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income

12

13,125  mi2land  disturbed  by  surface  mining

6    mi2  plaCorm  footprint  400k  turbines

3,750    mi2  spacing  area

>6    mi2  1  Wyoming  Strip  Mine

40%  of  U.S.  electricity

100%  of  U.S.  electricity

13

29

Chapter IV. Water Shortages and Impacts on Energy Infrastructure Today’s U.S. energy infrastructure depends heavily on the availability of water, and there is likely to be increased issues con-cerning availability and value of that water due to growth in competing demands. Most state water managers expect shortages of water over the next decade, as shown in Figure IV-1 (GAO, 2003), and water supply issues are already affecting many existing and proposed power projects as shown in Figure IV-2. In some regions, power plants have had to limit generation because of insufficient water supplies, and citizens and public officials concerned about the availability of water have opposed new high-water-use energy facilities, suggesting clear incentives for using lower water intensity designs in future energy infrastructure developments. As illustrated in Figure IV-3, total U.S. water withdrawals peaked in 1980 and have been essentially level since then. Construc-tion of large reservoirs peaked in the 1970s,

and only one large water storage project is currently under construction—the Animas LaPlata project in Colorado and New Mex-ico (GAO, 2003). In 1980, major reservoirs were full. However, since then, droughts have caused some reservoir levels to decline, particularly in the West, and water managers have had to limit water withdraw-als. Also, groundwater levels have declined substantially in many areas of the country. Compounding the uncertainty regarding supply is the lack of current data on water consumption. Steady or declining rates of water withdrawal do not necessarily imply steady or declining consumption. For example, communities have responded to water shortages, in part, by increasing water re-use for such nonpotable uses as irrigation. Diverting wastewater effluent from return flows to consumptive uses reduces the need for water withdrawal, but does not reduce the rate of water consumption.

TX

CA

MT

AZ

ID

NV

NM

COIL

OR

UT

KS

WY

IANE

SD

MN

ND

OK

FL

WI

MO

AL

WA

GA

AR

LA

MI

IN

PA

NY

NC

MS

TN

KYVA

OH

SC

ME

WV

MI VTNH

MD

NJ

MACT

DE

RI

g

AK

AK

HI

HI

HI

HI

HI

shortageStatewideRegionalLocalNoneNo response or uncertain

Figure IV-1. Survey of Likely Water Shortages over the Next Decade under Average

Conditions (GAO, 2003)

GAO Survey of Likely Water Shortages this Decade under Average Conditions

Fossil & nuclear power accounted for 41% total water use - 143

million gals/d or 52 billion gals in 2005.

100% U.S. power from wind farms would have a total water

use 95% less.

Corn ethanol

Cellulosic ethanol

Wind-battery turbine spacing

Wind turbines ground footprint

Solar-battery

Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol

Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles

COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES

Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles

Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to storage of the intermittent solar & wind in plug-in electric vehicles

Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol

offshore area

needed for 100%

Solar PV & Wind power require 30 to 60 times less land area than biomass, require 95% less water, and produce zero emissions

Potential Synergisms

“I bequeath myself to the dirt, to grow from the grass I love; If you want me again, look for me under your boot-soles.” Walt Whitman

Deep-rooted, soil-retaining, water-regenerating, carbon-storing, biodiversity rich Prairie grasslands

Restoring soil, grasslands, water and climate

Wes Jackson, The Land Institute, why native

grasses are the perennial favorite

Ted Turner, bison entrepreneur

Reviving the great migrations

Preserving the praire potholes

Great Plains: Dust Bowlification or Dollarization?ActionMapping Wind farms

for Rural Prosperity & Urban Clean Energy

EXISTING75% land farmed/ranched5% revenues of Great PlainsDust Bowlification loomingWater Aquifer deep decline

OPPORTUNE3% land in Wind Farms10+% revenues Great Plains100% US power generationDust Bowl prevention optionPrairie grasses/bison optionWater Regeneration option

Renewable Electricity Futures Study Volume 1: Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures

3-16

(a) Existing transmission grid representation in ReEDS

(b) New transmission estimated to be required by ReEDS by 2050 in the 80% RE-ITI scenario

Figure 3-9. Existing and new transmission required in the 80% RE-ITI scenario

Existing U.S. Transmission Grid System

Designed for Fossil, Nuclear & Hydro Power NOT Wind & Solar Power

NREL, Renewable Electricity Future Outlook, 2012

Renewable Electricity Futures Study Volume 1: Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures

xlii

Figure ES-9. New transmission capacity additions and conceptual location in the 80%

RE-ITI scenario

Cost and Environmental Implications of High Renewable Electricity Futures High renewable electricity futures can result in deep reductions in electric sector greenhouse gas emissions and water use. Direct environmental and social implications are associated with the high renewable futures examined, including reduced electric sector air emissions and water use resulting from reduced fossil energy consumption, and increased land use competition and associated issues. At 80% renewable electricity in 2050, annual generation from both coal-fired and natural gas-fired sources was reduced by about 80%, resulting in reductions in annual greenhouse gas emissions of about 80% (on a direct combustion basis and on a full life cycle basis) and in annual power sector water use of roughly 50%. At 80% renewable electricity, gross land-use impacts associated with renewable generation facilities, storage facilities, and transmission expansion totaled less than 3% of the land area of the contiguous United States.36

The direct incremental cost associated with high renewable generation is comparable to published cost estimates of other clean energy scenarios. Improvement in the cost and performance of renewable technologies is the most impactful lever for reducing this incremental cost. The retail electricity price implications estimated for the 80%-by-2050 RE scenarios are comparable to those seen in other studies with similarly transformative electricity futures, as 36 Net land-use impacts, considering the implications of reduced conventional generation, and land-use impacts based on disrupted lands, are both expected to be smaller. As an example of the latter case, disrupted land would generally be less than 5% of gross land area for wind generation facilities.

Opportune New Transmission Links

Designed for Wind & Solar Power Expansion

NREL, Renewable Electricity Future Outlook, 2012

Smart Integration Eliminating Oil Dependency

On the Verge of Convergences

LINKING 1 TW Smart Grid w/ 3 TW Vehicle fleet

GRIDS BUILDINGS VEHICLES

Electric vehicles with onboard battery storageand bi-directional power flows could stabilize large-scale (one-half of US electricity) wind power with 3% of the fleet dedicated to regulation for wind, plus 8–38% of the fleet (depending on battery capacity) providing operating reserves or storage for wind.

Kempton, W and J. Tomic. (2005a). V2G implementation: From stabilizing the grid to supporting large-scale renewable energy. J. Power Sources, 144, 280-294.

PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES

Pacific NW National Lab 2006 Analysis SummaryPHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity

Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/.

ENERGY POTENTIALU.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel 84%  of  the  nation’s  cars,  pickup  trucks,  and  SUVs  (198  million).

ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIALA shift from gasoline to PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million barrels per day).

OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings

AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio of electric to gas vehicle)

27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx, 40% urban PM10, 80% SOx; BUT, 18% higher national PM10 & doubling of SOx nationwide (from higher coal generation).ONLY IF from higher coal generation - but none if from wind power.

Accelerating RE-powered Electric Vehicles

http://evworld.com/blogs.cfm?authorid=226&blogid=1123

Solar-charged Electric tricycles in Philippines

Electric-Powered Mobility Innovation Globally

Nearly 1/2 billion electric bikes, trikes, scooters by 2015

Source:  h.p://www.windows2universe.org/earth/images/grassland_map_big2_jpg_image.html  

Windy  Grassland  regions  of  the  World

Jacobson, M. & M. Deluchi, A Plan for a Sustainable Future by 2030, Scientific American, Nov 2009

20 Year 100% Global RE Scenario

25%/yrgrowth rate

40%/yrgrowth rate

IF RE + Deep-Dive Efficiency then 11.5 TW

WIND TURBINES - 5MW - 1% in place

SOLAR PV ROOFTOPS - .003MW - <1% in place

CONCENTRATED SOLAR POWER - 300MW- <1% in place

SOLAR PV POWER PLANTS - 300MW - <1% in place

IF conventional, then 17 TW

OR

COLLABORATIVE  INNOVATION    NETWORKs

Ad hoc self-organized groups of Self-Motivated Citizens, geographically dispersed,

focused on accomplishing a specific goal

COINs

Spurring Emission-Free Cities by Using

Web-led COINs using smart devices to create ASSETs - Apps for Spurring Solar & Efficiency Tech-knowledge

Leveraging the funnel of knowledge and learning-by-doing

emission-free city

COIN MAPPING Rural & Urban ASSETs

Action mappingIdentify the goal.Identify what needs doing to reach that goal.Identify actions for people to do. Identify the effective information required to complete the action.

Geospatial MappingWeb-based visualization of city ASSETS: harnessing deep efficiency savings, onsite solar, locally distributed power and microgrid network.

Tech-knowledge roadmappingWeb-accessible tool library encompassing spectrum of resources for learning, applied knowledge, capacity building, skills development, training, specialized competencies, across a myriad of relevant domains (technical, financial, policy, regulatory, communications, etc)

ENGAGING THE SMARTS & HEARTSON CAMPUSES SPANNING THE GLOBE

In collaboration with the Association for the Advancement of Sustainable Higher Education

Goal of becoming emission free

ENGAGING THE SMARTS & HEARTSON CAMPUSES SPANNING THE GLOBE

TO SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY TO MAP & MAKE EMISSION FREE COMMUNITIES

1,060 U.S. Cities as of 3/22/2013Mayors Leading the Way on Climate Protection

70% of U.S. cities with 30,000+ citizens are

signatories to the Mayors’ Climate

Protection Commitment

Documentary Production Team

Chris Tribble Michael P Totten

Contact:

Michael P Tottentotten.michael@gmail.com

1-303-974-8676http://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelptotten