greening development: inger andersen, 7 march 2011
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Greening Development:
Rio+ 20 and beyond
Things have changed since the early 1990s
An explosion in purchasing power–
particularly in developing countries
Population: +1.2 billion
GDP: +$5.5 trillion
(+130%)
GDP per capita: +80%
Greater wealth has led to greater consumption…
still dominated by rich countries
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1992 2009
Co
nst
an
t 2000 $ t
rillio
n
High income countries
Low & middle income
countries
2009
Substantial progress on social indicators, even
if much remains to be done
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1990 2005 2015
Poverty rate ($1.25/day)
-445 million
people
-453 million people
But 918 million people still
expected to live in poverty
by 2015
Much less progress on the environmental side
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
PM10, country level CO2 emissions
Reduced air pollution from particulates, but
massive increase in GHGs….
Time to rethink our growth paradigm
Y=F (K, L, A, E)
with A=F(…E, Epol)
Trust in our ability to innovate and green at
low cost
EU Nitrates
Directive
EPA SO2
reductions
(Phase 1)
EU
IPPC
Directive
EPA Dinoseb
ban
EPA
phase-out
of leaded
gas
EU
packaging
waste
Directive
EU
regulation
in the
power
sector
Ozone
Depleting
Substances
phase-out
(Harrington et al. 2000), Oosterhuis (2006)
Green growth – a new emphasis within
sustainable development
Green growth – a new emphasis within
sustainable development
Why might
this work now?
A rethinking of current growth paradigm
Fragility and volatility…
Doubts on its ability to deliver from a social and humanitarian point of view
64
36
20
80
And even more so from an environmental point
of view
Rockström et al., Nature 2009
How to make
it happen?
Get the prices right….
necessary, non sufficient…
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Consumption
Subsidies to fossil
fuels
Cost of support
to renewable
energy
billio
n $
Technology transition…
Infrastructure transition— Today’s choices will
lock in lifestyles, energy use, and vulnerability
Infrastructure transition— Today’s choices will
lock in lifestyles, energy use, and vulnerability
Cities are growing fast….
0
1
2
3
4
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
Billions of people living in urban areas
Urban
Natural resource management transition
Loess plateau- before
Natural resource management transition
Loess plateau- after
Human capital transition
Source: World Development Report 2010 based on UNESCO Institute for Statistics.
Social capital transition
A green growth knowledge platform to focus
our efforts around:
Green Growth
Platform
Innovation
Efficiency
Jobs & Poverty
Economic & Environmental
Risks