greg mcinerny @gregmci [email protected] interpreting and visualising outputs 2020 science
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Greg McInerny @GregMcI gmcinerny@hotmail.com Interpreting and visualising outputs 2020 SCIENCE](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649c765503460f94929e8a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
G r e g M c I n e r n y@ G r e g M c I
w w w . 2 0 2 0 s c i e n c e . n e t / p e o p l e / g r e g - m c i n e r n y
g m c i n e r n y @ h o t m a i l . c o m
I n t e r p r e ti n g a n d v i s u a l i s i n g o u t p u t s
2 0 2 0 S C I E N C E
![Page 2: Greg McInerny @GregMcI gmcinerny@hotmail.com Interpreting and visualising outputs 2020 SCIENCE](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649c765503460f94929e8a/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
1 . V i s u a l i s a ti o nDO WE SPEND TOO MUCH TIME EXHIBITING OUR WORK?
![Page 3: Greg McInerny @GregMcI gmcinerny@hotmail.com Interpreting and visualising outputs 2020 SCIENCE](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649c765503460f94929e8a/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
E x h i b i t “ W o w, X & Y l o o k s a m a z i n g ,I n e e d t o fi n d o u t m o r e ! ”
D A T A E N C O D I N G D E C O D I N G
E x p l o r e “ I w o n d e r h o w x r e l a t e s t o y ”
E x p l a i n “ X d o e s y ”
X1, Y1, x2, y2 …
G o a l s i n d a t a v i s u a l i s a ti o n
![Page 4: Greg McInerny @GregMcI gmcinerny@hotmail.com Interpreting and visualising outputs 2020 SCIENCE](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649c765503460f94929e8a/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
E x h i b i t “ W o w, X & Y l o o k s a m a z i n g ,I n e e d t o fi n d o u t m o r e ! ”
D A T A E N C O D I N G D E C O D I N G
E x p l o r e “ I w o n d e r h o w x r e l a t e s t o y ”
E x p l a i n “ X d o e s y ”
X1, Y1, x2, y2 …
G o a l s i n d a t a v i s u a l i s a ti o n
![Page 5: Greg McInerny @GregMcI gmcinerny@hotmail.com Interpreting and visualising outputs 2020 SCIENCE](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649c765503460f94929e8a/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
E l i t h , J . & L e a t h w i c k , J . R . ( 2 0 0 9 ) A n n u a l R e v i e w o f E c o l o g y , E v o l u ti o n a n d S y s t e m a ti c s , 4 0 , 6 7 7 – 6 9 7 .
( 1 ) R e c o d e
( 2 ) H o p e
T h u i l l e r , W . e t a l . ( 2 0 0 5 ) G E B . 1 4 , 3 4 7 – 3 5 7 .
“ w e o b s e r v e d t h a t 8 3 % o f a r ti c l e s s t u d i e s f o c u s e d e x c l u s i v e l y o n m o d e lo u t p u t ( i . e . m a p s ) w i t h o u t p r o v i d i n g r e a d e r s w i t h a n y m e a n s t o c r i ti c a l l y e x a m i n e m o d e l l e d r e l a ti o n s h i p s ”
Y a c k u l i c , C . B . e t a l . ( 2 0 1 2 ) M E E . 3 , 5 4 5 - 5 5 4
![Page 6: Greg McInerny @GregMcI gmcinerny@hotmail.com Interpreting and visualising outputs 2020 SCIENCE](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649c765503460f94929e8a/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
( 3 ) S u m m a r i s e
5 , 0 4 1 p i x e l s o fi n f o r m a ti o n
“ t h e r e s u l t s r e v e a l a n i n t r i g u i n g p a tt e r n ”
A r a u j o , M . B . & N e w , M . 2 0 0 7 . T R E E . 2 2 , 4 2 – 4 7 .
I n d i v i d u a l m o d e l s
A v e r a g e m o d e l
H o f , C . e t a l . 2 0 1 1 . N a t u r e 4 8 0 , 5 1 6 – 5 1 9
h tt p : / / w w w . f s . f e d . u s / n e / n e w t o w n _ s q u a r e /p u b l i c a ti o n s / o t h e r _ p u b l i s h e r s / O C R /n e _ 2 0 0 1 _ i v e r s o n 0 0 1 . p d f
? !
( 4 ) C r a m i t i n
![Page 7: Greg McInerny @GregMcI gmcinerny@hotmail.com Interpreting and visualising outputs 2020 SCIENCE](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649c765503460f94929e8a/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
E x h i b i t “ W o w, X & Y l o o k s a m a z i n g ,I n e e d t o fi n d o u t m o r e ! ”
D A T A E N C O D I N G D E C O D I N G
E x p l o r e “ I w o n d e r h o w x r e l a t e s t o y ”
E x p l a i n “ X d o e s y ”
X1, Y1, x2, y2 …
E x p l a i n ( 2 ) “ … b e c a u s e o f A & B ,X d o e s y ”?
L e t s t r y ‘ m o d e l v i s u a l i s a ti o n ’ …
![Page 8: Greg McInerny @GregMcI gmcinerny@hotmail.com Interpreting and visualising outputs 2020 SCIENCE](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649c765503460f94929e8a/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
h tt p : / / x k c d . c o m / 1 1 3 8 /
![Page 9: Greg McInerny @GregMcI gmcinerny@hotmail.com Interpreting and visualising outputs 2020 SCIENCE](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649c765503460f94929e8a/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
2 . I n t e r p r e t a ti o nDO WE RECOGNISEWHY WE DISAGREE?
![Page 10: Greg McInerny @GregMcI gmcinerny@hotmail.com Interpreting and visualising outputs 2020 SCIENCE](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649c765503460f94929e8a/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
W h a t a r e t h e s e ?
G e o g r a p h i c d i s t r i b u ti o n
P o t e n ti a l d i s t r i b u ti o n
A b i o ti c e n v . r e s p o n s e
H a b i t a t s u i t a b i l i t y
E n v . / E c o . n i c h e
F u n d . / R e a l n i c h e
C l i m a t e a ffi n i t y
B i o - c l i m a t e e n v e l o p e
M u l ti v a r i a t e e n v . s p a c e
F u n c ti o n a l r e s p o n s e
S p e c i e s ’ E n v . r e s p o n s e
E n v . C o r r e l a t e s
I n t e r p o l a t e dP a tt e r n
S o b e r o n
H u n t l e y
A u s ti nE l i t h
K e a r n e y
F r a n k l i n
T h u i l l e rA r a u j oT h o m a sO ’ H a r a
N o g u e s - B r a v o
P e t e r s o n T h e o r y S t a ti s ti c a l m e t h o d
V a r i a b l e
R e s p o n s e f u n c ti o n
M o d e l t u n i n g
M o d e l s e l e c ti o n
A p p l i c a ti o n
D a t aT e r m i n o l o g y
A u d i e n c e
W h o i s r i g h t ?
![Page 11: Greg McInerny @GregMcI gmcinerny@hotmail.com Interpreting and visualising outputs 2020 SCIENCE](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649c765503460f94929e8a/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Reason(abstract)
idea/concept
Describe(concrete)
model
output
assumption
definition
code/formula
graph
numbers
words
words/algorithm/
formula
data
Encode(concrete)
Understand(abstract)
idea/concept
goals
Deducti ve Reasoning(agreements are c lear)
![Page 12: Greg McInerny @GregMcI gmcinerny@hotmail.com Interpreting and visualising outputs 2020 SCIENCE](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649c765503460f94929e8a/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Reason(abstract)
Describe(concrete)
Encode(concrete)
Understand(abstract)
model
output
code/formula
graph
numbers
data
goals
MAXENT, R, BIOMOD, OPENMODELLER, MODECO, GARP, BIOMAPPER, CANOCO, WINBUGS, OPENBUGS, DOMAIN, SPECIES, HYPERNICHE, HYKL, DISMO… ANN, AQUAMAPS, BIOCLIM, BRT, CSM, CTA, ENFA, ENVELOPE SCORE, ENV DISTANCE, BUGS, GA, GAM, GBM, GLM, GLS, MAHALANOBIS DISTANCE, MARS, MAXENT, MODECO, RANDOM FORESTS, SRE, SVM ...
![Page 13: Greg McInerny @GregMcI gmcinerny@hotmail.com Interpreting and visualising outputs 2020 SCIENCE](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649c765503460f94929e8a/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
goals
Reason(abstract)
idea/concept
Describe(concrete)
model
output
assumption
definition
code/formula
graph
numbers
words
words/algorithm/
formula
data
Encode(concrete)
Understand(abstract)
idea/concept
Inducti ve Model l ing(understand the pitf al ls)
![Page 14: Greg McInerny @GregMcI gmcinerny@hotmail.com Interpreting and visualising outputs 2020 SCIENCE](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649c765503460f94929e8a/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
1 . V i s u a l i s a ti o nDO WE SPEND TOO MUCH TIME EXHIBITING OUR WORK?
2 . I n t e r p r e t a ti o nDO WE RECOGNISE WHY WE DISAGREE?