gresham "group 150" - october 2010
DESCRIPTION
ASX Resources - Group 150 - October 2010TRANSCRIPT
OCTOBER 2010
1
ASX RESOURCES - GROUP 150We are pleased to present the October edition of ‘Group 150’, a ranking of the top 150 ASX listed resources companies (excluding oil and gas), by market capitalisation.
The market value of the Group 150 at the end of September was $525 billion, up 8.1% from August. An incredible 141 of the Group 150 companies recorded an increase in market value during the month. The entry point into the Group 150 for September was $95 million versus $77 million for August. The ASX/S&P 200 Resources Index rose 5.7% in the month, while the ASX All Ordinaries and ASX/S&P 200 Index increased 4.5% and 4.1% respectively.
The most interesting developments over the past month have been in the currency rather than equities markets. The Australian dollar continued its steady rise against most currencies in September, increasing 8.8% to a high of 97.3 US cents on the back of a potential increase in interest rates by the Reserve Bank and a widespread expectation that the US Federal Reserve will undertake a second round of quantitative easing in November.
During September we also witnessed a record surge in precious metals prices in US$ terms. Gold reached US$1315 per ounce and silver achieved US$22 an ounce—the highest since 1980. Gold and silver prices have increased 19% and 29% respectively since the start of 2010. Platinum increased 9% and Palladium increased 16% in US dollar terms during the month.
Given the strength in the gold price, we thought it timely to complete an assessment of the ASX listed gold landscape in the past 10 years. The number of Australian listed gold producers has shrunk dramatically over that period, with only 7 out of 25 listed companies surviving the wave of domestic mergers and foreign acquisitions. The consolidation in the sector has also seen the annual production by Australian listed gold companies decline from 8.9m oz in 2000 to 5.6m oz in 2010. Currently there are 43 listed gold companies in the Group150.
So, the interesting question remains - who will survive the next 12 months, let alone the next 10 years? Starved for choice at the top end (+500koz per annum) following Newcrest’s acquisition of Lihir, both local and international investors are now actively seeking exposure to the Australian mid tier and near term producers, leading to a gradual increase in market ratings. This exposure also provides leverage to the likely wave of in-market consolidation in the sector, as local producers pursue scale to replace the “Lihir void”. We also expect North American gold companies to continue to selectively seek to acquire the best assets (like Andean) to exploit ratings arbitrage between the two markets. Played right, some Australian gold shareholders may enjoy and capture the “double premium”.
In this edition of the Group 150, we have updated the “MRRT-impact” chart from the September edition, to determine whether the market capitalisation of the constituents of the Group 150 have recovered following the outcome of the election. As presented in the last edition the MRRT, as presently conceived has a long path to travel before it becomes legislation. The average market value of domestic focussed companies since the proposed MRRT was announced has increased 42.3% (vs 20.0% in August and 15.4% July). International focused companies increased 49.1% (vs 14.1% in August and 7.6% in July).
Gresham Advisory Partners Limited
Group 150
October 2010
Edition 7
Darren MartinGresham Advisory [email protected]+61 8 9486 7077+61 412 144 719
Gresham Advisory Partners is a leading Australian mergers and acquisitions/corporate advisory business and one of Australia’s largest and highest ranking independent corporate advisors.
Top 150 ASX LiSTed reSource compAnieS - SepTemberBy Market Capitalisation
Group 150
2
Mkt Cap (A$m) % Mkt Cap (A$m) %
Sep Aug Company 30-Sep-10 31-Aug-10 Change Sep Aug Company 30-Sep-10 31-Aug-10 Change
1 1 BHP Billiton Ltd. (ASX:BHP) $216,565.4 $206,195.2 5.0% 51 53 Panoramic Resources Ltd. (ASX:PAN) $555.5 $492.6 12.8%
2 2 Rio Tinto Ltd. (ASX:RIO) $150,607.5 $137,500.1 9.5% 52 68 Resolute Mining Ltd. (ASX:RSG) $550.4 $329.9 66.8%
3 3 Newcrest Mining Ltd. (ASX:NCM) $30,327.2 $18,010.4 68.4% 53 66 Intrepid Mines Limited (ASX:IAU) $548.3 $335.7 63.3%
4 4 Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (ASX:FMG) $16,200.5 $14,543.6 11.4% 54 48 Mantra Resources Limited (ASX:MRU) $545.7 $579.5 (5.8%)
5 6 Coal & Allied Industries Ltd. (ASX:CNA) $9,027.3 $8,468.0 6.6% 55 51 Gujarat NRE Coking Coal Limited (ASX:GNM) $538.3 $516.0 4.3%
6 9 OZ Minerals Limited (ASX:OZL) $4,541.1 $3,807.6 19.3% 56 64 Bougainville Copper Ltd. (ASX:BOC) $533.4 $356.9 49.5%
7 7 Alumina Ltd. (ASX:AWC) $4,416.7 $4,184.9 5.5% 57 57 Brockman Resources Limited (ASX:BRM) $526.7 $427.6 23.2%
8 8 New Hope Corp. Ltd. (ASX:NHC) $4,192.7 $3,844.0 9.1% 58 54 Northern Iron Limited (ASX:NFE) $526.0 $477.7 10.1%
9 10 Equinox Minerals Ltd. (ASX:EQN) $4,105.3 $3,475.0 18.1% 59 67 Ampella Mining Limited (ASX:AMX) $517.4 $334.3 54.8%
10 14 Andean Resources Ltd. (ASX:AND) $3,444.3 $2,695.0 27.8% 60 59 Allied Gold Ltd. (ASX:ALD) $509.6 $395.2 28.9%
11 11 MacArthur Coal Ltd. (ASX:MCC) $3,430.8 $3,299.2 4.0% 61 58 Giralia Resources NL (ASX:GIR) $483.7 $419.1 15.4%
12 12 Whitehaven Coal Limited (ASX:WHC) $3,040.9 $2,952.0 3.0% 62 61 Straits Resources Ltd. (ASX:SRL) $472.1 $384.1 22.9%
13 13 Aquila Resources Ltd. (ASX:AQA) $2,647.5 $2,739.3 (3.4%) 63 55 Kagara Ltd (ASX:KZL) $460.1 $442.4 4.0%
14 19 Aquarius Platinum Ltd. (ASX:AQP) $2,608.0 $2,181.8 19.5% 64 56 Sphere Minerals Limited (ASX:SPH) $440.4 $428.4 2.8%
15 15 Paladin Energy, Ltd. (ASX:PDN) $2,579.1 $2,663.4 (3.2%) 65 62 Silver Lake Resources Limited (ASX:SLR) $427.3 $377.3 13.3%
16 16 Energy Resources of Australia Ltd. (ASX:ERA) $2,536.8 $2,508.2 1.1% 66 69 Integra Mining Ltd. (ASX:IGR) $415.8 $321.3 29.4%
17 18 Iluka Resources Ltd. (ASX:ILU) $2,502.9 $2,315.1 8.1% 67 71 Cockatoo Coal Limited (ASX:COK) $412.5 $298.2 38.3%
18 20 Riversdale Mining Ltd. (ASX:RIV) $2,466.2 $2,150.3 14.7% 68 63 Indophil Resources NL (ASX:IRN) $393.8 $359.9 9.4%
19 17 Centennial Coal Co. Ltd. (ASX:CEY) $2,437.9 $2,382.0 2.3% 69 65 Mincor Resources NL (ASX:MCR) $383.2 $347.1 10.4%
20 23 Lynas Corp. Ltd. (ASX:LYC) $2,261.8 $1,623.1 39.4% 70 75 Discovery Metals Ltd. (ASX:DML) $380.5 $262.7 44.8%
21 22 PanAust Limited (ASX:PNA) $1,920.2 $1,742.9 10.2% 71 91 Metals X Limited (ASX:MLX) $375.6 $204.8 83.4%
22 21 Mount Gibson Iron Ltd. (ASX:MGX) $1,889.2 $1,877.8 0.6% 72 74 Aditya Birla Minerals Limited (ASX:ABY) $365.1 $275.8 32.4%
23 24 Gloucester Coal Ltd. (ASX:GCL) $1,620.5 $1,604.0 1.0% 73 83 Gryphon Minerals Ltd. (ASX:GRY) $362.1 $226.9 59.6%
24 25 Extract Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXT) $1,486.6 $1,474.4 0.8% 74 77 Coalspur Mines Limited (ASX:CPL) $350.7 $260.3 34.7%
25 30 Atlas Iron Limited (ASX:AGO) $1,252.8 $1,128.6 11.0% 75 70 NKWE Platinum Ltd. (ASX:NKP) $345.2 $305.0 13.2%
26 27 Zimplats Holdings Ltd. (ASX:ZIM) $1,237.8 $1,173.3 5.5% 76 89 Arafura Resources Limited (ASX:ARU) $328.4 $210.7 55.9%
27 28 Perseus Mining Ltd. (ASX:PRU) $1,221.8 $1,158.6 5.5% 77 76 Catalpa Resources Limited (ASX:CAH) $327.1 $262.0 24.8%
28 35 Ivanhoe Australia Limited (ASX:IVA) $1,190.9 $1,060.2 12.3% 78 84 Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (ASX:SAR) $306.9 $225.9 35.9%
29 29 Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (ASX:KCN) $1,172.6 $1,009.0 16.2% 79 81 Rex Minerals Limited. (ASX:RXM) $302.4 $236.0 28.1%
30 26 Aston Resources Limited (ASX:AZT) $1,167.4 $1,207.7 (3.3%) 80 73 Bandanna Energy Limited (ASX:BND) $295.8 $284.7 3.9%
31 32 Western Areas NL (ASX:WSA) $1,117.8 $927.0 20.6% 81 85 Troy Resources NL (ASX:TRY) $290.4 $221.3 31.2%
32 31 White Energy Company Limited (ASX:WEC) $1,108.7 $980.6 13.1% 82 72 CuDeco Ltd. (ASX:CDU) $274.6 $288.7 (4.9%)
33 34 Minara Resources Ltd. (ASX:MRE) $946.1 $864.3 9.5% 83 95 Galaxy Resources (ASX:GXY) $274.4 $196.3 39.8%
34 36 Citadel Resource Group Limited (ASX:CGG) $935.1 $804.9 16.2% 84 79 Moly Mines Ltd. (ASX:MOL) $271.2 $252.9 7.2%
35 41 CGA Mining Limited (ASX:CGX) $924.3 $709.0 30.4% 85 80 Kingsrose Mining Limited (ASX:KRM) $267.0 $240.2 11.2%
36 40 Medusa Mining Limited (ASX:MML) $917.3 $750.3 22.3% 86 86 Adamus Resources Ltd. (ASX:ADU) $264.2 $218.6 20.9%
37 42 Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR) $911.3 $672.0 35.6% 87 97 Jabiru Metals Limited (ASX:JML) $248.7 $185.1 34.4%
38 33 Avoca Resources Ltd. (ASX:AVO) $872.7 $866.9 0.7% 88 82 Dominion Mining Limited (ASX:DOM) $247.0 $228.4 8.1%
39 37 OceanaGold Corporation (ASX:OGC) $857.3 $801.0 7.0% 89 94 Flinders Mines Limited. (ASX:FMS) $245.7 $200.2 22.7%
40 38 OM Holdings Limited (ASX:OMH) $804.3 $757.1 6.2% 90 100 Beadell Resources Ltd (ASX:BDR) $236.3 $180.4 31.0%
41 39 Gindalbie Metals Ltd. (ASX:GBG) $777.3 $756.1 2.8% 91 87 Perilya Ltd. (ASX:PEM) $236.3 $217.9 8.4%
42 44 ST Barbara Ltd. (ASX:SBM) $761.7 $634.8 20.0% 92 88 Cape Lambert Resources Limited (ASX:CFE) $234.7 $212.8 10.3%
43 47 Murchison Metals Limited (ASX:MMX) $722.7 $605.2 19.4% 93 90 Gold One International Limited (ASX:GDO) $233.8 $209.6 11.5%
44 46 Mirabela Nickel Ltd. (ASX:MBN) $722.0 $622.3 16.0% 94 99 Ramelius Resources Ltd. (ASX:RMS) $228.8 $180.4 26.8%
45 43 Grange Resources Limited (ASX:GRR) $708.5 $645.2 9.8% 95 101 Highlands Pacific Limited (ASX:HIG) $225.4 $177.6 26.9%
46 60 Sundance Resources Ltd. (ASX:SDL) $677.5 $392.9 72.4% 96 92 Iron Ore Holdings Limited (ASX:IOH) $213.9 $202.4 5.7%
47 45 Independence Gold NL (ASX:IGO) $677.2 $622.6 8.8% 97 93 Platinum Australia Limited (ASX:PLA) $213.6 $202.3 5.6%
48 50 Mineral Deposits Ltd. (ASX:MDL) $633.7 $564.0 12.4% 98 102 Tanami Gold NL (ASX:TAM) $211.4 $174.8 20.9%
49 52 Regis Resources Limited (ASX:RRL) $609.7 $518.1 17.7% 99 107 Metminco Limited. (ASX:MNC) $204.6 $158.7 28.9%
50 49 Summit Resources Ltd. (ASX:SMM) $571.2 $541.1 5.6% 100 103 Berkeley Resources Ltd. (ASX:BKY) $202.9 $175.4 15.7%
Includes ASX Resource companies excluding oil and gas
OCTOBER 2010
3
new enTrAnTS - SepTember eXiTS - SepTember124 Marengo Mining Limited (ASX:MGO)130 Dragon Mining Limited (ASX:DRA)138 Noble Mineral Resources Ltd. (ASX:NMG)144 Continental Coal Limited (ASX:CCC)148 Bathurst Resources Ltd (ASX:BTU)
Based on market capitalisation as at 30 September 2010 vs 31 August 2010
Mkt Cap (A$m) % Mkt Cap (A$m) %
Sep Aug Company 30-Sep-10 31-Aug-10 Change Sep Aug Company 30-Sep-10 31-Aug-10 Change
101 98 Sylvania Resources Ltd. (ASX:SLV) $201.8 $184.7 9.3% 126 141 Magma Metals Ltd. (ASX:MMW) $125.2 $88.0 42.3%
102 96 Deep Yellow Ltd. (ASX:DYL) $197.0 $191.4 2.9% 127 119 Red Hill Iron Ltd (ASX:RHI) $125.2 $123.0 1.8%
103 104 Orocobre Limited (ASX:ORE) $186.7 $171.2 9.1% 128 142 Talisman Mining Ltd (ASX:TLM) $123.1 $87.6 40.5%
104 115 Conquest Mining Limited (ASX:CQT) $185.9 $128.9 44.2% 129 120 Northern Energy Corporation Ltd (ASX:NEC) $122.0 $121.4 0.5%
105 112 Tiger Resources Ltd. (ASX:TGS) $181.8 $137.2 32.5% 130 153 Dragon Mining Limited (ASX:DRA) $121.7 $73.8 64.9%
106 124 Alkane Resources Limited (ASX:ALK) $173.1 $112.1 54.4% 131 132 Citigold Corporation Limited (ASX:CTO) $120.6 $97.5 23.7%
107 106 Exco Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXS) $171.5 $161.1 6.5% 132 140 Resource Generation Limited (ASX:RES) $116.9 $89.6 30.5%
108 114 Red 5 Ltd. (ASX:RED) $161.3 $131.9 22.3% 133 125 Centrex Metals Limited (ASX:CXM) $116.3 $111.7 4.1%
109 105 FerrAus Ltd. (ASX:FRS) $161.1 $164.6 (2.1%) 134 144 WPG Resources Ltd (ASX:WPG) $114.4 $82.8 38.2%
110 121 Focus Minerals Limited (ASX:FML) $160.3 $120.2 33.4% 135 128 IMX Resources Ltd. (ASX:IXR) $113.2 $109.3 3.6%
111 108 BC Iron Limited (ASX:BCI) $158.2 $144.3 9.6% 136 136 Reed Resources Ltd. (ASX:RDR) $111.4 $94.2 18.3%
112 110 Golden West Resources Limited (ASX:GWR) $156.7 $141.9 10.4% 137 133 Bendigo Mining Ltd. (ASX:BDG) $107.0 $96.8 10.5%
113 113 Nucoal Resources NL (ASX:NCR) $152.5 $134.9 13.0% 138 151 Noble Mineral Resources Ltd. (ASX:NMG) $106.3 $74.4 42.9%
114 116 Hillgrove Resources Ltd. (ASX:HGO) $152.1 $125.5 21.2% 139 134 Toro Energy Ltd (ASX:TOE) $106.1 $95.5 11.1%
115 111 Mungana Goldmines Ltd (ASX:MUX) $150.7 $141.3 6.7% 140 118 Thundelarra Exploration Ltd. (ASX:THX) $105.6 $123.7 (14.6%)
116 123 Alliance Resources Ltd. (ASX:AGS) $146.7 $112.6 30.3% 141 149 Crescent Gold Limited (ASX:CRE) $105.4 $77.5 36.0%
117 109 Hunnu Coal Limited (ASX:HUN) $143.4 $143.4 0.0% 142 148 Stanmore Coal Limited (ASX:SMR) $102.5 $79.2 29.4%
118 122 Azumah Resources Ltd (ASX:AZM) $140.3 $117.9 19.0% 143 143 Morning Star Gold NL (ASX:MCO) $102.1 $85.7 19.1%
119 128 Greenland Minerals and Energy Ltd (ASX:GGG) $137.7 $106.2 29.6% 144 161 Continental Coal Limited (ASX:CCC) $100.2 $92.2 8.7%
120 129 Guildford Coal Limited (ASX:GUF) $136.8 $104.4 31.0% 145 139 Terramin Australia Ltd. (ASX:TZN) $99.1 $89.7 10.5%
121 138 Chalice Gold Mines Ltd. (ASX:CHN) $135.2 $90.5 49.4% 146 131 Kangaroo Resources Limited (ASX:KRL) $98.4 $97.6 0.8%
122 117 Astron Ltd. (ASX:ATR) $134.8 $124.5 8.3% 147 130 Jupiter Mines Ltd. (ASX:JMS) $98.0 $101.6 (3.5%)
123 127 Norton Gold Fields Limited (ASX:NGF) $134.3 $108.4 23.9% 148 178 Bathurst Resources Ltd (ASX:BTU) $97.7 $57.3 70.4%
124 166 Marengo Mining Limited (ASX:MGO) $129.3 $65.8 96.5% 149 146 Sihayo Gold Limited (ASX:SIH) $96.7 $79.4 21.8%
125 135 Robust Resources Limited (ASX:ROL) $125.7 $94.4 33.2% 150 126 Australasian Resources Ltd (ASX:ARH) $95.0 $110.5 (14.0%)
Group 150 LeAderS And LAGGerS - mArkeT cApiTALiSATion performAnce - SepTember
Leaders Laggers
Source: Capital IQ
* Included placement, acquisition and/or material option conversion during month
Lihir Gold Limited (ASX:LGL)CBH Resources Ltd. (ASX:CBH)Nyota Minerals Limited (ASX:NYO)Energy Metals Limited (ASX:EME)Aussie Q Resources Limited (ASX:AQR)
Group 150
4
Group 150 SecTor mArkeT cApiTALiSATion - SepTember
merGer & AcquiSiTionS - Announced in SepTember
Date Announced Target Acquirer Value
(A$m)
Percent Sought
(%)
Premium - 1 Day Prior
(%)
Premium - 1 Month Prior
(%)
Consideration Offered
8-Sep-2010 Avoca Resources Ltd. (ASX:AVO) Anatolia Minerals Development Ltd. (TSX:ANO) 1,147.2 100 10.7 24.7
Common Equity; Rights
/ Warrants / Options
2-Sep-2010 Andean Resources Ltd. (ASX:AND) Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE:GG) 3,637.8 100 34.2 79.4 Elections
Source: Capital IQ Announced Australian Resources (excluding oil and gas) Mergers and Acquisitions >A$10m
Group 150 mArkeT cApiTALiSATion
ASX indeX performAnce - SepTember
Mar
ket C
apit
alis
atio
n (A
$b)
OCTOBER 2010
5
who wiLL Survive The neXT 10 YeArS? - ASX LiSTed GoLd compAnieS The Australian listed gold producers have shrunk dramatically since 2000, with only 7 out of 25 surviving the wave of domestic mergers and foreign acquisitions. The recent acquisition of Lihir by Newcrest, further widens the gap to the up and coming mid tier producers - NCM’s proforma FY10 production of ~2.8m ozs is ~8x larger than the next biggest producer in Resolute with 352k oz.
The consolidation in the sector has seen the annual Australian listed gold production decline from 8.9moz in 2000 to 5.6moz in 2010.
Starved for choice at the top end (+500koz per annum) following Newcrest’s acquisition of Lihir, both local and international investors are now actively seeking exposure to the Australian mid tier and near term producers, leading to a gradual increase in market ratings. This exposure also provides leverage to the likely wave of in-market consolidation in the sector, as local producers pursue scale to replace the “Lihir void”. We also expect North American gold companies to continue to selectively seek to acquire the best assets (like Andean) to exploit ratings arbitrage between the two markets. Played right, some Australian gold shareholders may enjoy and capture the “double premium”.
So the interesting question remains - who will survive the next 12 months let alone the next 10 years?
Source: Gresham, Company Reports* Currently in the Group 150
2000 Annual Production of Gold
2010 Annual Production of Gold
2010
- A
nnua
l Gol
d Pr
oduc
tion
(‘00
0 oz
)20
10 -
Ann
ual G
old
Prod
ucti
on (‘
000
oz)
8.9 Moz produced by 30 listed gold companies
5.6 Moz produced by 43* listed gold companies
New gold companies since 2000
ASX gold universe in 2000
Group 150
6
The “MRRT-Impact” chart below, supports the resurgence of the resources sector in the past month. As discussed in the last edition the MRRT, as presently conceived has a long path to travel before it becomes legislation.The average market value of domestic focussed companies since the proposed MRRT was announced has rebounded 42.3% (vs 20.0% and 15.4% at the end of August and July respectively), while international focussed peers increased 49.1% (vs 14.1% and 7.6% at the end of Auguts and July respectively). Global diversified companies have also recovered 27.3% (vs 13.7% and 14.3%) during the same period.
Group 150 - “mrrT impAcT” - bASed on projecT/S LocATion
Only 148 companies in September and August data set as Astron Resources and Guildford Coal were new IPO’s during the periodOnly 149 companies in July data set as Guildford Coal was new IPO’s during the period
Monthly Performance Overseas Domestic Overseas/ Domestic Total
End of September
Spread of "Group 150" by Project/s Location 51 81 16 148
- Simple Average Return 49.1% 42.3% 27.3%
End of August
Spread of "Group 150" by Project/s Location 47 85 16 148
- Simple Average Return 14.1% 20.0% 13.7%
End of July
Spread of "Group 150" by Project/s Location 49 84 16 149
- Simple Average Return 7.6% 15.4% 14.3%
Mar
ket C
apit
alis
atio
n -
Perf
orm
ance
Sin
ce P
ropo
sed
MRR
T A
nnou
nced
OCTOBER 2010
7
Share Price Performance - September 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010
bASe meTALS - SecTor performAnce
Shar
e Pric
e Per
form
ance
Shar
e Pric
e Per
form
ance
Shar
e Pric
e Per
form
ance
Copper Nickel Zinc
Group 150
8
Share Price Performance - September 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010
coAL - SecTor performAnce
Shar
e Pric
e Per
form
ance
Shar
e Pric
e Per
form
ance
Shar
e Pric
e Per
form
ance
OCTOBER 2010
9
Share Price Performance - September 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010
diverSified - SecTor performAnce
Shar
e Pric
e Per
form
ance
Shar
e Pric
e Per
form
ance
Shar
e Pric
e Per
form
ance
induSTriAL minerALS - SecTor performAnce
Shar
e Pric
e Per
form
ance
Shar
e Pric
e Per
form
ance
Shar
e Pric
e Per
form
ance
Group 150
10
Share Price Performance - September 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010
GoLd - SecTor performAnce
Shar
e Pric
e Per
form
ance
Shar
e Pric
e Per
form
ance
Shar
e Pric
e Per
form
ance
OCTOBER 2010
11
Share Price Performance - September 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010
iron ore - SecTor performAnce
Shar
e Pric
e Per
form
ance
Shar
e Pric
e Per
form
ance
Shar
e Pric
e Per
form
ance
Group 150
12
Share Price Performance - September 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010
urAnium - SecTor performAnce
Shar
e Pric
e Per
form
ance
Shar
e Pric
e Per
form
ance
Shar
e Pric
e Per
form
ance
OCTOBER 2010
13
conSenSuS commodiTY price forecASTS - SepTember
Source: Bloomberg Consensus Estimates - Median / High / Low
Gold (US$/oz) Silver (US$/OZ)
Copper (US$/lb) Nickel (US$/lb)
Zinc (US$/lb) Lead (US$/lb)
Tin (US$/lb) Uranium (US$/lb)
AUD:USD NYMEX (US$/bbl)
$1,310 $1,290 $1,250 $1,150 $1,084
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
Spot 2010 2011 2012 2013
$21.87 $20.00 $20.00 $19.81 $18.32
$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
$3.64 $3.61 $3.86 $3.65 $3.80
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
$10.61 $9.99 $11.00$9.60 $9.25
$0.00
$4.00
$8.00
$12.00
$16.00
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
$1.00 $1.04$1.22
$1.02 $1.10
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
$1.03 $1.07 $1.13$0.98 $1.00
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
$11.00
$8.61 $8.70 $8.44 $8.44
$0.00
$2.50
$5.00
$7.50
$10.00
$12.50
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
$46.50$62.00 $63.25 $60.00 $53.00
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
$0.97 $0.91 $0.90 $0.81 $0.79
$0.00
$0.25
$0.50
$0.75
$1.00
$1.25
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
$80.32 $85.00 $94.00 $105.00 $95.00
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
Group 150
14
Gresham Advisory Partners LimitedA.B.N. 97 003 344 269
Level 17, 167 Macquarie Street,
Sydney NSW 2000
Telephone: 61 2 9221 5133
Facsimile: 61 2 9221 6814
Level 10, 1 Collins Street,
Melbourne VIC 3000
Telephone: 61 3 9664 0300
Facsimile: 61 3 9650 7722
Level 3, 28 The Esplanade,
Perth WA 6000
Telephone: 61 8 9486 7077
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Website: www.gresham.com.au
Terms and ConditionsInformation contained in this publicationThe opinions, advice, recommendations and other information contained in this publication, whether express or implied, are published or made by Gresham Advisory Partners Limited (ABN 88 093 611 413), Australian financial services license (247113), and by its officers and employees (collectively “Gresham Advisory Partners”) in good faith in relation to the facts known to it at the time of preparation. Gresham Advisory Partners has prepared this publication without consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any individual investor, and you should not rely on the publication for the purpose of making a financial decision. To whom this information is providedThis publication is only made available to persons who are wholesale clients within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. This publication is supplied on the condition that it is not passed on to any person who is a retail client within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001.Disclaimer and limitation of liabilityTo the maximum extent permitted by law, Gresham Advisory Partners will not be liable in any way for any loss or damage suffered by you through use or reliance on this information. Gresham Advisory Partners’ liability for negligence, breach of contract or contravention of any law, which cannot be lawfully excluded, is limited, at Gresham Advisory Partners’ option and to the maximum extent permitted by law, to resupplying this information or any part of it to you, or to paying for the resupply of this information or any part of it to you.No warranties made as to contentGresham Advisory Partners makes no warranty, express or implied, concerning this publication. The publication provided by us on an “AS IS” basis at your sole risk. Gresham Advisory Partners expressly disclaims, to the maximum extent permitted by law, any implied warranty of merchant-ability or fitness for a particular purpose, including any warranty for the use or the results of the use of the publication with respect to its correctness, quality, accuracy, completeness, or reliability.CopyrightCopyright in this publication is owned by Gresham Advisory Partners. You may use the information in this publication for your own personal use, but you must not (without Gresham Advisory Partners’ consent) alter, reproduce or distribute any part of this publication, transmit it to any other person or incorporate the information into any other document.General mattersThese Terms and Conditions are governed by the law in force in the State of Victoria, and the parties irrevocably submit to the non-exclusive jurisdiction of the courts of Victoria and courts of appeal from them for determining any disputes concerning the Terms and Conditions.If the whole or any part of a provision of these Terms and Conditions are void, unenforceable or illegal in a jurisdiction it is severed for that jurisdiction. The remainder of the Terms and Conditions have full force and effect and the validity or enforceability of that provision in any other jurisdiction is not affected. This clause has no effect if the severance alters the basic nature of the Terms and Conditions or is contrary to public policy.If Gresham Advisory Partners do not act in relation to a breach by you of these Terms and Conditions, this does not waive Gresham Advisory Partners’ right to act with respect to subsequent or similar breaches.
Advised BHP Billiton on its
$204m offer for United Minerals
Corporation.
Advised BG Group on its $1bn takeover offer for
Pure Energy Resources Limited.
Advised IAMGOLD Corporation on its $265m acquisition
of Gallery Gold.
Advised Gem Diamonds on its
$300m acquisition of Kimberley Diamonds.
Advised Polaris Metals NL on
$178m takeover offer by Mineral
Resources Limited.
Advised Tethyan on its $220m
competing takeover offer by Crosby and Antogafasta/Barrick.
Advised Iluka on its $114m
institutional placement and
$353m accelerated right issue.
Advised Bannerman
Resources on its financing with
Resource Capital Funds.
Advised Iluka Resources on its
$54m Narama coal divestment to
Xstrata.
Advised Murchison Metals
on its joint venture with Mitsubishi.
2010
2010
Advised BHP Billiton on its
US$116bn iron ore production
joint venture with Rio Tinto.
2010
Introduced Denham Capital to
Trans Tasman Resources resulting
in NZ iron sands investment.
2010
2009
Advised Indophil on $545m
recommended offer from Zijin
2010
Advised BHP Billiton on the disposal of the Yabulu Nickel
refinery.
2009
Advised Allied Gold on its $54m
acquisition of Australian
Solomons Gold.
2009
Advised Brandrill Limited on its
$45m takeover offer by Ausdrill
Limited.
2009
2008
Advised Kalahari Minerals on its
$140m proposed merger with
Extract Resources.
2008
Advised Centaurus
Resources on its $20m merger
with Glengarry Resources.
2010
2009/08
2008
Advised Summit Resources on its
A$1.2bn takeover by Paladin Energy.
2007
2008
2006
2007
2008
Advised Guandong Rising on its $216m
cornerstone investment in Pan
Aust.
GRAM2009
Advised Energy Metals on its $86m
proportional takeover offer by China
Guangdong Nuclear Power Group.
2009
Mergers and Acquisitions
Takeover Defence
Strategic Advisory, Joint Ventures and Capital Markets
recenT reSourceS TrAnSAcTionS
Takeover Defence
Strategic Advisory, Joint Ventures and Capital Markets
Mergers and Acquisitions