GrocerSmart 4.0 redesign -request for rtf input-

February 25, 2010

Agenda

• Current GrocerSmart©– What we’ve learned

• Summit Blue EM&V• Increasing measure complexity• Increasing need for accuracy

– How to address in future GrocerSmart©?• From parametric runs to fully modeled

How GS works now

– Software: Microsoft Access & SQL database

– Major systems audits– Models from table data picks– Recommends EEMs– Energy savings (delta), payback

How GS works now

• What savings numbers does it produce?– Three kinds

• Deemed/prescriptive savings values– RTF approved

• Calculated• Modeled – computer simulation

Some measures:– Floating head pressure control on multiplex racks– Floating suction pressure control on multiplex racks– Replacing shaded pole motors with ECM motors– Anti-Sweat Heat Control– Single compressors to multiplex– Efficient/oversized condenser– New higher efficiency refrigerated cases– Case lighting upgrades from T12 to T8– Case lighting upgrades from T8 to LED– Low Anti-Sweat Heat doors– Night covers– Gaskets– Strip curtains– Auto closers

Refrigeration System parameters:

DOE-2 input parameter Parameter valuesSystem Type Integral, Standalone, MultiplexCompressor Type Reed valve (standard), Discus (High Efficiency)Condenser Type Air-cooled, EvaporativeCondenser Effiency Standard, High EfficiencyFixed Condensing Temperature Setpoint 70, 80, 90, 100Condenser Fan Control Cycle fan (1-speed), 2-speed, variable-speedCondenser Head Control Fixed, Ambient (Floating), Drybulb StagedSuction Control Fixed, Load Reset (Floating)

On GS accuracy…

• Summit Blue eval of BPA’s ESG– Results on 50% of program savings show:– Understatement of savings averages 28%

(FHPC, Cases, ECMs)• 3 key measures = +19, +27, +39%

– Overstated savings (FHPC w/VFD)

• 1 key measure = 16%

– Summit Blue recommendation:• Apply realization rates

• 50% + of new measures in the pipeline are highly complex and interactive with loads, systems, or both

Relationship of Complexity to GS savings accuracy

Measure complexity

High

Low

Realization rate

FHPC w/VFD

FHPC w/o VFD

Efficient Cases

ECM case motors

.84

1.19

1.27

1.39

Low

High

Accuracy – utilities want and need it

• RTF wants accuracy, not conservatism• Technologies don’t “deem” well

– Deemed denied to PECI and others• Grounds: accurate and/or not conservative

savings

– Measure approaches segmented• Deemed, deemed calculated, custom

– Goal: Transparency into methods

Why is this approach best?

• (Approach = Modeled not parametrics)• More, and more accurate kWh from programs• Accuracy and transparency = regulatory risk

mitigation – New approach transparent, results can be duplicated

• Stronger selling position for new and renewal programs, reduce future risk across portfolio

• Add measures – consistent / correct methodology• Increase measure complexity• Potential to do custom with GS/NRR-DR

Potential program impacts

• Perspective: BPA– Same measure mix– Apply - and + realization rates

• 3.4 million kWh

• Net on key measures: +116% over GS • Net on total program savings: 7% over GS

Transparency

GS inputs

default choice from

defined data set

DOE 2.2r

inputs

Model

runs

case type = W =key

words and

values

input files

Output files and

reports

lights = X =

ballasts = Y =

motors = Z =

ASHC = AA =

Transparency

Input reports GS inputs

PECI selections associated with inputs

DOE 2.2r inputs

Weather files

"Include" files

Output reports "BDL"

hourly reports

Design concepts and rationales

• One substantive change:– Original conception – modeling, parametrics,

deemed– Revised conception – modeling and deemed

• Rationale– Accuracy from model

• Parametrics are intermediate accuracy

• RTF enthusiastically engages subcommittee and PNW utilities

When modeled vs. deemed?

• Modeled on the “do now” measures

• Deemed on everything else– Summit Blue: values work for different bldg

types

• All utility reported values are modeled

Discussion