growing middle class and pakistan economy
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Growing Middle Class and Pakistan EconomyTRANSCRIPT
Dr. Vaqar AhmedSustainable Development Policy Institute
Implications of Growing Middle Class for Pakistan’s Socio-Economy
2
Global GDP Growth 1961 - 2010
19611965
19691973
19771981
19851989
19931997
20012005
2009
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Middle income countries High income countriesLow income countries
% G
row
th
Middle income countries are now drivers of global growth
3
Regional Comparison of GDP Growth
19711975
19791983
19871991
19951999
20032007
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
South AsiaHigh incomeWorld%
Gro
wth
South Asian has grown at a faster pace
4
Household Consumption Expenditure
19711974
19771980
19831986
19891992
19951998
20012004
20072010
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
South AsiaHigh incomeWorld
% G
row
th
Rising growth shows in higher consumption expenditures
5
Pakistan: Changes in Population Structure
Labour force growth higher
than population growth
Increasing working age population
6
• Middle class: – Is a precondition of stability in the social
structures– Is a measure of mitigating inequality in a society
• Easterly (2001): Nations with a large middle class tend to grow faster– English middle class of 18th & 19th century– Today’s China and India
What makes middle class important?
7
• Collier (1999): Middle class forms alliance with lower classes in order to demand an inclusive political system
• Acemoglu (2003): Decisive voters in democracy are from middle class
• Bannerjee (2007): middle class is a source of new entrepreneurs and this class stresses on accumulation of human capital and savings
What makes middle class important?
8
• Warning:
– Basu (2003): If venues for channeling middle class human capital and savings not provided, then tendency towards consumption expenditure puts sustainability of growth in danger
What makes middle class important?
9
How big is middle class in Pakistan?
Class Proportion (%)
Lower lower (< $1.25) 21.3
Lower ($ 1.25-2) 34.8
Lower Middle ($2-4) 32.4
Middle Middle ($4-10) 9.8
Upper Middle ($10-20) 1.3
Upper (>20) 0.4
81.5 million people
Method 1: Expenditure from PPP $2 to $20 per person per day
10
How big is middle class in Pakistan?
32.5 million people
Method 2: Computation by Weighted Composite Index
Class Categorisation Proportion (%)
Lower lower Destitute 41.9
Middle lower Aspirants 23
Upper lower Climbers 15.8
Lower middleFledgling middle class 8.5
Middle middleHard-core middleclass 4.3
Upper middle Elite middle class 6
Upper Privileged 0.4Source: Dur-e-Nayab (2011)
11
How big is middle class in Pakistan?
Method 2: Computation by Weighted Composite Index
Class Urban (%) Rural (%)
Lower lower 23.6 55.2
Middle lower 21.8 23.9
Upper lower 20.8 12.3
Lower middle 12.5 5.7
Middle middle 8.1 1.6
Upper middle 12.3 1.3
Upper 0.9 0.1
The middle class is an urban phenomenon – lives and works in cities
Urban: 22.6m
Rural: 9.8m
12
Occupational Proportion in Middle Class (%)
The middle class is an urban phenomenon – lives and works in cities
OccupationLower Middle
Middle Middle
Upper Middle
Armed forces 1.1 0.6 1.3Senior Officials 2.9 8.2 20.7Professionals 18.3 15.7 26.4Technicians 19.3 14.2 21.3Clerks 14.5 11.8 12.9Service /retail 30 28.9 17.1Agriculture 5.9 8.6 0.1Crafts 2.6 5 0Plant operators 2.1 3.1 0Elementary occupations 3.3 3.9 0Total 100 100 100
Dominant presence in civil
service
13
Occupational Proportion in Middle Class (%)
The middle class is an urban phenomenon – lives and works in cities
OccupationLower Middle
Middle Middle
Upper Middle
Armed forces 1.1 0.6 1.3Senior Officials 2.9 8.2 20.7Professionals 18.3 15.7 26.4Technicians 19.3 14.2 21.3Clerks 14.5 11.8 12.9Service /retail 30 28.9 17.1Agriculture 5.9 8.6 0.1Crafts 2.6 5 0Plant operators 2.1 3.1 0Elementary occupations 3.3 3.9 0Total 100 100 100
Dominant presence in
engineering & medicine
14
Occupational Proportion in Middle Class (%)
The middle class is an urban phenomenon – lives and works in cities
OccupationLower Middle
Middle Middle
Upper Middle
Armed forces 1.1 0.6 1.3Senior Officials 2.9 8.2 20.7Professionals 18.3 15.7 26.4Technicians 19.3 14.2 21.3Clerks 14.5 11.8 12.9Service /retail 30 28.9 17.1Agriculture 5.9 8.6 0.1Crafts 2.6 5 0Plant operators 2.1 3.1 0Elementary occupations 3.3 3.9 0Total 100 100 100
Dominant presence in
Services Sector (53% of GDP)
15
Occupational Proportion in Middle Class (%)
The middle class is an urban phenomenon – lives and works in cities
Industry Lower MiddleMiddle Middle
Upper Middle
Agriculture 6.2 8.9 1.4Mining 0.8 0.5 0.9Manufacturing 7.6 9.7 11.6Power & fuel 2.6 2.6 2.7Construction 2.5 2.7 2.1Wholesale/retail 25.6 27 15.5Transport/communication 4.3 4.8 4.9Banking & Insurance 3.6 6.9 9.4Community services 46.8 36.8 51.5Total 100 100 100
Domestic commerce
16
Proportion of Occupational Status (%)
Barriers to entrepreneurship holding back the middle class
Occupational Status Lower Middle
Middle Middle
Upper Middle
Employer with < 10 employees 1.1 1.6 1Employer with > 10 employees 1.4 3.9 4Self employed non-agriculture 27.5 27 16.9Paid employee 64.5 60.1 78Unpaid family worker 0 0 0Own cultivator 4.7 6.3 0.1Share cropper 0.3 0 0Contract cultivator 0.3 0.6 0Own Livestock 0.3 0.5 0Total 100 100 100
Moving from wage to self employment
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• They want: – Education– Jobs
• Nayab (2011): – When compared to its neighbours Pakistan has a
bigger middle class– The middle class in Pakistan has actually grown
with time
What does this middle class want?
18
• Average years of schooling (age 15-19) has not changed since 1990 (currently at 7.6 years)
• Labour force with tertiary education under 22%
Two facts about education in Pakistan
19
What about jobs?
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
GDP growth (annual %)Unemployment, total (% of total labor force)
Perc
ent
Education without opportunity
Declining Growth, Rising Unemployment
20
Migration Increase Since 1972
Highly Qualified
Highly Skilled
Skilled
0 5 10 15 20 25
20
16
20
% Growth
Remittances and Dutch Disease Phenomenon
21
Currently no space for middle class (physical & intellectual)
Reforms for engaging middle class
Choices
22
The rise in consumption
The development of urban markets
Backward linking of urban with rural markets
Changes in consumption
pattern
Opportunities and challenges
Accommodating Middle Class
McKinsey 2007
23
Annual Projected Consumption Growth - 2030
Food
Housing
Apparel
Household ite
ms
Transport
Health ca
re
Education
Communications
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
46
78
9
1213
14
% G
row
th
Emphasis has already shifted from food to durable goods – Choice driven consumption
24
• Births and migration will drive growth• Labour market shortages: – Design– Engineering– Middle management
• Localized savings instruments• Opportunity for niche cities• Backward linkages with farm activity– Diversification towards higher value addition
Urban Growth and Management
25
• Infrastructure governance reform of PSEs
• Social sector governance 18th Amendment
• Legal and judicial reforms for inclusive markets
• Efficiency of public expenditure results based management
Inclusive Governance for Middle Class