growing prosperity in austin

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Growing Prosperity in Austin IREM Austin Monthly Networking Luncheon Westwood Country Club January 14, 2014

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Presentation on Austin economy to IREM Austin Chapter on January 14, 2014

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Page 1: Growing Prosperity in Austin

Growing Prosperity in Austin

IREM AustinMonthly Networking LuncheonWestwood Country ClubJanuary 14, 2014

Page 2: Growing Prosperity in Austin

January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin

Growing Prosperity in Austin

• Sources

• Reasons

• Challenges

• Opportunities

Page 3: Growing Prosperity in Austin

January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin

GDP Growth

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

2012-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%

US (MSAs)

Austin MSA

Austin MSA real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 47% between 2001 and 2012, second only to Houston MSA among large metro areas (GDP >$50B). Austin MSA GDP almost certainly surpassed $100 billion mark in 2013, which would rank 32nd largest among all US MSAs.

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data in 2013 dollars.

Page 4: Growing Prosperity in Austin

January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin

Job Growth

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

2012-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Texas

US

Austin MSA

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.

Austin MSA ranked #1 in job growth (23%) among large metros (500,000+ population) between 2001 and 2012. Job growth averaged 13,500 net increase annually.

Page 5: Growing Prosperity in Austin

January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin

Net Migration (Move In–Move Out)

Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people). Map created by Forbes. Map shows data for Travis County, 2010 tax year.

Travis County gained (net) approximately 5,000 people per year from other states during 1996-2010.

Page 6: Growing Prosperity in Austin

January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in AustinSource: Internal Revenue Service (# of people). Map created by Forbes. Map shows 2010 tax year.

Page 7: Growing Prosperity in Austin

January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin

Net Migration, Different State

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

2010-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000 CA 35%LA 23%

FL 5%CA 24%FL 10%

IL 7%

Average (06-10): 8,820

CA 15%IL 7%FL 6%

CA 42%

Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people).In-migration from different state averages about 23,000 people per year (06-10).

Travis County

Page 8: Growing Prosperity in Austin

January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin

78701 Population (2010): 6,841

Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 Census. Map by ESRI.

Page 9: Growing Prosperity in Austin

January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin

Pre-Recession Leaders (2007)

York, SCWilliamson, TX

Fulton, GACollin, TXTravis, TXHarris, TXKing, WA

Gwinnett, GAOrleans, LA

Bexar, TXTarrant, TX

Mecklenburg, NCWake, NCClark, NV

Maricopa, AZ

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

7,573

9,840

Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people).

Net migration from different state

Page 10: Growing Prosperity in Austin

January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin

Williamson, TXDenver, COOrleans, LA

Wake, NCPinal, AZ

Travis, TXFairfax, VAFulton, GATarrant, TX

Dallas, TXEl Paso, CO

Bexar, TXHarris, TX

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

3,943

7,030

Post-Recession Leaders (2010)

Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people).

Net migration from different state

Page 11: Growing Prosperity in Austin

January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin

Popular Neighborhoods (2007-11)

1. Steiner Ranch

2. Milwood/Arrowwood

3. North Burnet/Domain

4. Blackhawk/Hidden Lake

5. Canyon Creek

6. Hyde Park

7. North Loop

8. Onion Creek

9. Barton Creek/Hills

10. Old West Austin

11. Northwest Hills

12. Preston Oaks

Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2007-2011.

Page 12: Growing Prosperity in Austin

January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin

Net Migration (Total) – HH Income

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

2010-$300,000,000

-$200,000,000

-$100,000,000

$0

$100,000,000

$200,000,000

$300,000,000

$400,000,000

$500,000,000

Average (06-10): $321M

Travis County

Source: Internal Revenue Service, Adjusted Gross Income, Net In-Migration Less Out-Migration in Travis County, All Sources.

Page 13: Growing Prosperity in Austin

January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin

How long will it last?City

$100,000+% Total HHs

$200,000+% Total HHs

Med List PricePer Sq Ft

Med List RentPer Sq Ft

San Francisco 39% 13% $735 $3.69

Washington DC 36% 12% $442 $2.80

Seattle 31% 8% $346 $2.09

Boston 26% 7% $427 $3.02

New York 24% 7% $447 $3.88

Austin 24% 6% $159 $1.27

Portland 24% 5% $212 $1.34

Raleigh 23% 5% $111 $0.78

Charlotte 22% 6% $100 $0.77

Denver 22% 6% $232 $1.43

Nashville 15% 3% $103 $0.89

Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2012, Zillow (November 2013).

Page 14: Growing Prosperity in Austin

January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin

Per Capita Income (Travis, %US)19

6919

7119

7319

7519

7719

7919

8119

8319

8519

8719

8919

9119

9319

9519

9719

9920

0120

0320

0520

0720

0920

11

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

103.671996

103.942011

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

Page 15: Growing Prosperity in Austin

January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin

% Pop ≥ Associate’s Degree (Austin, 2012)

Hispanic/Latino

Black

White

Asian

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

23%

23%

65%

75%

70% of projected job openings (2013-2023) in Travis County paying median wage of at least $18 per hour will require a postsecondary credential or degree.

Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2012. Data is for population age 25+. Data on jobs from EMSI.

Page 16: Growing Prosperity in Austin

January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin

Average Monthly Earnings (Travis, 2012Q2)

Hispanic/Latino

Black

White

Asian

$1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000

$3,272

$3,371

$5,387

$5,850

Source: US Census Bureau (LEHD, QWI)

According to MIT’s Living Wage Calculator, a family with one adult and one child living in Travis County requires $3,390 in pre-tax monthly income to meet basic needs.

Page 17: Growing Prosperity in Austin

January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin

Key Takeaways

• Economic growth and migration are fueling unprecedented wealth creation in Austin

• Disparity in educational attainment is most serious threat to Austin’s future prosperity

• Time for big ideas & stretch goals is now

Page 18: Growing Prosperity in Austin

January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin

Brian KelseyCivic Analytics LLC3420 Executive Center DriveSuite 300Austin, TX [email protected] 512-731-7851

@civicanalytics

http://civicanalytics.com