growing prosperity in austin
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Presentation on Austin economy to IREM Austin Chapter on January 14, 2014TRANSCRIPT
Growing Prosperity in Austin
IREM AustinMonthly Networking LuncheonWestwood Country ClubJanuary 14, 2014
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
Growing Prosperity in Austin
• Sources
• Reasons
• Challenges
• Opportunities
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
GDP Growth
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
2012-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%
US (MSAs)
Austin MSA
Austin MSA real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 47% between 2001 and 2012, second only to Houston MSA among large metro areas (GDP >$50B). Austin MSA GDP almost certainly surpassed $100 billion mark in 2013, which would rank 32nd largest among all US MSAs.
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data in 2013 dollars.
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
Job Growth
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
2012-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Texas
US
Austin MSA
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
Austin MSA ranked #1 in job growth (23%) among large metros (500,000+ population) between 2001 and 2012. Job growth averaged 13,500 net increase annually.
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
Net Migration (Move In–Move Out)
Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people). Map created by Forbes. Map shows data for Travis County, 2010 tax year.
Travis County gained (net) approximately 5,000 people per year from other states during 1996-2010.
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in AustinSource: Internal Revenue Service (# of people). Map created by Forbes. Map shows 2010 tax year.
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
Net Migration, Different State
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
2010-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000 CA 35%LA 23%
FL 5%CA 24%FL 10%
IL 7%
Average (06-10): 8,820
CA 15%IL 7%FL 6%
CA 42%
Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people).In-migration from different state averages about 23,000 people per year (06-10).
Travis County
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
78701 Population (2010): 6,841
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 Census. Map by ESRI.
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
Pre-Recession Leaders (2007)
York, SCWilliamson, TX
Fulton, GACollin, TXTravis, TXHarris, TXKing, WA
Gwinnett, GAOrleans, LA
Bexar, TXTarrant, TX
Mecklenburg, NCWake, NCClark, NV
Maricopa, AZ
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
7,573
9,840
Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people).
Net migration from different state
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
Williamson, TXDenver, COOrleans, LA
Wake, NCPinal, AZ
Travis, TXFairfax, VAFulton, GATarrant, TX
Dallas, TXEl Paso, CO
Bexar, TXHarris, TX
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000
3,943
7,030
Post-Recession Leaders (2010)
Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people).
Net migration from different state
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
Popular Neighborhoods (2007-11)
1. Steiner Ranch
2. Milwood/Arrowwood
3. North Burnet/Domain
4. Blackhawk/Hidden Lake
5. Canyon Creek
6. Hyde Park
7. North Loop
8. Onion Creek
9. Barton Creek/Hills
10. Old West Austin
11. Northwest Hills
12. Preston Oaks
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2007-2011.
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
Net Migration (Total) – HH Income
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
2010-$300,000,000
-$200,000,000
-$100,000,000
$0
$100,000,000
$200,000,000
$300,000,000
$400,000,000
$500,000,000
Average (06-10): $321M
Travis County
Source: Internal Revenue Service, Adjusted Gross Income, Net In-Migration Less Out-Migration in Travis County, All Sources.
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
How long will it last?City
$100,000+% Total HHs
$200,000+% Total HHs
Med List PricePer Sq Ft
Med List RentPer Sq Ft
San Francisco 39% 13% $735 $3.69
Washington DC 36% 12% $442 $2.80
Seattle 31% 8% $346 $2.09
Boston 26% 7% $427 $3.02
New York 24% 7% $447 $3.88
Austin 24% 6% $159 $1.27
Portland 24% 5% $212 $1.34
Raleigh 23% 5% $111 $0.78
Charlotte 22% 6% $100 $0.77
Denver 22% 6% $232 $1.43
Nashville 15% 3% $103 $0.89
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2012, Zillow (November 2013).
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
Per Capita Income (Travis, %US)19
6919
7119
7319
7519
7719
7919
8119
8319
8519
8719
8919
9119
9319
9519
9719
9920
0120
0320
0520
0720
0920
11
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
103.671996
103.942011
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
% Pop ≥ Associate’s Degree (Austin, 2012)
Hispanic/Latino
Black
White
Asian
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
23%
23%
65%
75%
70% of projected job openings (2013-2023) in Travis County paying median wage of at least $18 per hour will require a postsecondary credential or degree.
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2012. Data is for population age 25+. Data on jobs from EMSI.
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
Average Monthly Earnings (Travis, 2012Q2)
Hispanic/Latino
Black
White
Asian
$1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000
$3,272
$3,371
$5,387
$5,850
Source: US Census Bureau (LEHD, QWI)
According to MIT’s Living Wage Calculator, a family with one adult and one child living in Travis County requires $3,390 in pre-tax monthly income to meet basic needs.
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
Key Takeaways
• Economic growth and migration are fueling unprecedented wealth creation in Austin
• Disparity in educational attainment is most serious threat to Austin’s future prosperity
• Time for big ideas & stretch goals is now
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin
Brian KelseyCivic Analytics LLC3420 Executive Center DriveSuite 300Austin, TX [email protected] 512-731-7851
@civicanalytics
http://civicanalytics.com