growth trends...#2 largest municipal population in nc (2010): 720,851 people within city limits*...

Growth Trends

Wake County Board of

Commissioners

1

Presentation Sequence

I. Population II. Housing & Development III. Economy IV. Education

4

2010 Census: Apportionment Data – December 2010

#2 Largest Municipal Population in NC (2010): 720,851 people within city limits*

Mecklenburg 43.5%

28.6%

Wake

Most Populous Counties in North Carolina

With Total Growth Rates 2000-2010

#2 Fastest Growing County in US with population more than 500,000**

#56 Most Populous County in US (#85 in 2000)

Largest Population Growth in NC since 2000: 273,147 people**

#1

Source: *NC Demographics; **US Census Bureau 2010

6

169,082

238,453

301,327

423,380

627,846

900,993

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Wake County Population 1960-2010 Census Counts

Sources. U.S. Census Bureau. April 1, 1960,1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 Uncorrected Census Counts.

Growth Trends 7

14%

46%

6%

Angier

Apex

Cary

Fuquay-Varina

Garner

Holly Springs

Knightdale

Morrisville

Raleigh

Rolesville

Wake Forest

Wendell

Zebulon

Unincorporated

Raleigh – 126,731

Cary – 39,276

Unincorporated – 16,002

Wake County Growth Distribution April 1, 2000 – 2010: 273,147 net increase in population

Source. U.S. Census Bureau. April 1, 2010 Census Counts. Released March 2011.

Presentation Title 8

15 Municipalities

2010 Census Population: 715,818

(80% of total)

Unincorporated Area


(20% of total)

Wake County


Land Area: 835 Square Miles

Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Census Data Files. Map Source: Wake County Planning, Development and Inspections

RTP RDU

Municipal Population Growth within Wake County

Source: US Census Bureau. Municipal Population Counts. 2000 Census & 2010 Census 9

Municipality 2000 2010 % Growth

Angier* - 103 -

Apex* 20,212 37,476 85%

Cary* 94,536 133,812 42%

Fuquay-Varina 7,898 17,937 127%

Garner 17,787 25,745 45%

Holly Springs 9,192 24,661 168%

Knightdale 5,958 11,401 91%

Morrisville 5,208 18,576 257%

Raleigh* 276,093 402,825 46%

Rolesville 907 3,786 317%

Wake Forest* 12,588 29,218 132%

Wendell 4,247 5,845 38%

Zebulon* 4,046 4,433 10%

Unincorporated 169,174 185,175 9%

Wake County 627,846 900,993 44%

*Total population counts do not include residents who lived within the parts of those municipalities that extended into other counties on April 1, 2010.

2011 Population

Source: NC Demographics Population Projection 2010

Source: NC Demographics Population Projection. Updated September 2011.

2012 Population

NC Demographics Population Projection*

NC Demographics Certified Population

Source: NC Demographics Certified Population and Population Projection 2010

633,516

661,472 681,498

702,440 725,334

757,346

793,401

831,537

866,438 892,409

907,314 932,665

958,015 983,367

1,008,719

1,034,069

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1,100,000

Tota

l Po

pu

lati

on

Year

Wake County Total Population Projections

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

Wake County North Carolina United States

34.4

Median Age 2010

Source: US Census Bureau 2010

37.0 36.9

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Summary File 1, Census 2000 Summary File 1, 1990 Census Summary File 2.

In Wake County between 2000 and 2010, the population 65 years and over increased

at a faster rate (65 percent) than the total population (44 percent).

23.1

25.1

26.0

51.9

47.2

41.1

17.2

20.3

24.4

7.8

7.4

8.5

1990

2000

2010

Wake County Age Distribution: 1990 to 2010

(Percent of Total Population by Age Group)

Under 18 18-44 45-64 65+

City/Town Median Age (years) 2000 Census Ranking

HIGHEST MEDIAN AGE

Garner 37.1 2

Cary 36.6 3

Zebulon 35.3 5

WAKE COUNTY MEDIAN AGE 34.4 32.9

LOWEST MEDIAN AGE

Raleigh 31.9 3

Morrisville 32.5 1

Knightdale 32.6 4

Top 3 Wake County Places With the Highest and Lowest Median Age: 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Summary File 1 and 2000 Census Summary File 1.

Natural Increase

Source: NC State Center for Health Statistics

7,010 7,324

7,564 7,746

8,242 8,581

9,114 9,281

9,458

8,860

8,427

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Nat

ura

l In

crea

se

Year

19

.2 p

eo

ple

pe

r d

ay

23

.5 p

eo

ple

pe

r d

ay

24

.3 p

eo

ple

pe

r d

ay

20

.1 p

eo

ple

pe

r d

ay

20

.7 p

eo

ple

pe

r d

ay

21

.2 p

eo

ple

pe

r d

ay

22

.5 p

eo

ple

per

day

25

.4 p

eo

ple

pe

r d

ay

25

.0 p

eo

ple

per

day

25

.9 p

eo

ple

pe

r d

ay

23

.0 p

eo

ple

pe

r d

ay

Presentation Title 17

70.2

62.2

19.6 20.3

3.8 5.4 5.4 9.8

1.0 2.3 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2000 2010

White

African-AmericanAsian

Hispanic

Other

Wake County’s Population Continues to Diversify: 2000 to 2010

18

1990 Census 16,545

2000 Census 60,602

2010 ACS * 119,452

* U. S. Census Bureau. 2010 American Community Survey 1 – Year Estimate

Wake County Foreign Born Population

19

2010 Census: Average Household & Family Size

Household Family

United States 2.58 3.14

North Carolina 2.48 3.01

Wake County 2.55 3.12

20

2010 Census Sorted By Average Family Size

Municipality Average

Household Size Average

Family Size

Holly Springs 3.03 3.38

Rolesville 3.06 3.32

Apex 2.82 3.31

Wake Forest 2.83 3.28

Knightdale 2.67 3.19

Wendell 2.57 3.19

Fuquay-Varina 2.67 3.17

Cary 2.61 3.15

Zebulon 2.62 3.15

Angier 2.58 3.14

Wake County Total 2.55 3.12

Morrisville 2.43 3.11

Raleigh 2.36 3.06

Garner 2.49 3.03

Wake County Households by Type: 1990 to 2010

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Summary File 1, Census 2000 Summary File 1, 1990 Census Summary Tape File 1.

26 27 26

8 9 10

32 30 30

26 25 26

8 9 8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990 2000 2010

Other Nonfamily Households

Single Person Households

Other Family Households

Single Parents with ChildrenUnder 18

Married Couples with ChildrenUnder 18

P

e

r

c

e

n

t

Certificates of Occupancy

Source: Wake County Revenue Department

9,4

60

9,2

36

8,9

53

8,8

78

9,7

80

11

,51

2

11

,83

3

10

,52

9

5,7

85

2,3

07

4,1

99

5,4

46

3,1

45

1,2

83

1,6

65

1,5

28

1,1

25

1,9

23

2,5

13

3,6

24

2,4

13

74

0

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Nu

mb

er

of

Un

its

Year

New Single Family and Rental Units 2000-2010 Rental Units

Single Family Units

Top 3 Wake County Places With the Highest and Lowest Percentage of Owner-Occupied Units: 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Summary File 1 and 2000 Census Summary File 1.

City/Town Percentage 2000 Census Ranking

HIGHEST OWNERSHIP

Rolesville 87.5 5

Holly Springs 87.4 1

Apex 74.7 2

WAKE COUNTY OWNERSHIP

65.1 65.9

LOWEST OWNERSHIP

Morrisville 48.4 1

Raleigh 53.5 2

Zebulon 56.2 3

25

5.0%

11.1%

6.3%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

Apex

Cary

Fuquay-Varina

Garner

Holly Springs

Knightdale

Morrisville

Raleigh

Rolesville

Wake Forest

Wendell

Zebulon

UnincorporatedSource. U.S. Census Bureau. April 1, 2010 Census Counts. Released March 2011.

2010 Census Housing Vacancy Rates

Wake County – 7.0%; 26,200 vacant units (6.5% in 2000; 16,900 vacant units)


$193,085

$203,335 $206,211 $206,975

$218,220 $222,016

$254,964 $257,558

$267,773

$248,948

$264,638 258,996

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

$240,000

$260,000

$280,000

$300,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year

Residential Sold Average Price 2000-2011

11

,64

7 U

nit

s So

ld

14

,50

7 U

nit

s So

ld

23

,04

0 U

nit

s So

ld

23

,99

8 U

nit

s So

ld

21

,46

7 U

nit

s So

ld

18

,61

1 U

nit

s So

ld

19

,635

U

nit

s S

old

14

, 87

4 U

nit

s So

ld

18

,49

9 U

nit

s So

ld

15

,45

4 U

nit

s So

ld

10

,04

5 U

nit

s So

ld

9,4

51

Un

its

Sold

27

95.00%

97.00%

99.00%

101.00%

103.00%

105.00%

107.00%

109.00%

111.00%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

99.91% 99.32%

103.46%

105.59%

110.20%

Wake County Sales Ratio 2008-2012

Sales Ratio

Sales Ratio- Assessed tax value divided by the sale price

250,000,000

750,000,000

1,250,000,000

1,750,000,000

2,250,000,000

2,750,000,000

3,250,000,000

3,750,000,000

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

TO

TA

L P

ER

MIT

TE

D C

OS

T

TO

TA

L P

ER

MIT

S

YEAR

Grand Total Building Permit Summary January to December Total Permits

Total Permitted Cost

Total New Permits


558 576

545

634

573 595

733

449

337 302

175 177

228

279 292 294

352

449

327

425

337

237 267

366

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800 2008

2009

2010

2011

Jurisdiction Number of

Annexations Acreage

Apex 9 116.5

Cary 11 118.6

Fuquay-Varina 6 57.9

Garner 3 29.3

Holly Springs 4 26.1

Knightdale 3 2.3

Morrisville 3 7.9

Raleigh 33 275.5

Rolesville 1 13.3

Wake Forest 1 21.4

Wendell 0 0.00

Zebulon 0 0.00

Municipal Total 74 668.8

Source: Wake County Planning, Development, & Inspections

Annexations Completed in 2011 by Municipality

31

Municipal ETJ Granted Since 2001: Approximately 30,000 Acres

Year ETJ Granted

Wake County Municipality

Approx . Acres Granted

2000 -2010 Pop Growth

2001 Fuquay-Varina 3,400 127%

2002 Fuquay-Varina 55

2003 Wendell 178 38%

2004 Rolesville 2,444 317%

2005 Holly Springs 2,500 168%

2006 None 0

2007 Apex 8,937 85%

Knightdale 4,407 91%

2008 Holly Springs 67

Rolesville 1,650

2009 None 0

2010 Knightdale 2,667

Zebulon 996 10%

2011 Wendell 2,179

2011 Largest Employers in Wake County

Wake County Major Employers

State of North Carolina

Wake County Public Schools

NC State University

Wake Med Health/Hospital

City of Raleigh

Rex Healthcare

Wal-Mart Associates Inc.

SAS Institute Inc.

County of Wake

Progress Energy Service Co.

Harris Teeter Inc.

Wake County Major Employers

US Postal Service

ACS Business Process Solutions Inc.

Food Lion, LLC

YMCA

Time Warner Entertainment

Target Stores Division

Wake Tech Community College

State Employees Credit Union

First Citizens Bank & Trust Co.

Wells Fargo Bank

Onsite Companies Inc.

Source: NC Commerce Department. Division of Employment Security. 25 Largest Employers by County. 2nd Quarter 2011.

Employment

Employed Persons 2004-2011*

Source: NC Employment Security Commission * As of November 2011

Year

Number of Employed Persons

435,294

437,231

404,932

411,376

411,027

425,429

435,478

409,129

418,320

422,380

325,000 350,000 375,000 400,000 425,000 450,000

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Wake County

MecklenburgCounty

357,153

374,329

412,905

435,478

409,129

422,380*

300,000

325,000

350,000

375,000

400,000

425,000

450,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Number of Employed in Wake County 2000-2011

Number of Employed

Source: Employment Security Commission * 2011- January-November Monthly Employed Average

Source: NC Employment Security Commission *2011 January - November Average Monthly Unemployment Rate

2.4%

4.7%

8.4% 7.9%

3.0%

10.8% 10.4%

10.0%

4.0%

5.8%

8.9%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Pe

rce

nta

ge (

%)

Year

Unemployment Rates 2000-2011

Wake County

Mecklenburg County

NC

U.S.

Geographic Area

Median Household

Income

Median Family Income

Poverty Rate*

United States $50,046 $60,609 15.3%

North Carolina $43,326 $52,920 17.5%

Durham County $47,401 $60,991 18.8%

Johnston County $45,988 $52,383 16.6%

Orange County $48,207 $80,117 20.1%

Wake County $61,426 $77,275 12.0%

Source: US American Community Survey 2010 1-year estimate income and poverty data

Income & Poverty

2010 Poverty Thresholds:

1-person household: $11,139

9-people or more (with 2 related children under 18): $47,882

Bankruptcies

Source: United States Bankruptcy Court, Eastern District of North Carolina

* Includes Business and Personal Bankruptcy Filings

1,621

2,255 2,504

2,941 2,963

4,036

1,393

1,856

2,170

2,961 2,730

2,484

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Nu

mb

er

of

Filin

gs

Year

Wake County Bankruptcy Filings, 2000-2011

Foreclosure Trends

Foreclosure Filings 2005-2011 Actual Foreclosures 2005-2011

Source: ForeclosureS.com Source: NC Administrative Office of the Courts

1,130 1,247 1,230

1,686

1,860 1,997

1,040

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

3,478

3,711

4,461

4,745

5,179

5,584

3,431

- 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

Tax Base Components

Tax Ratio 1993-2011

Total Value

121.4 Billion

Commercial Value

33.4 Billion

Residential Value

88.0 Billion

Tax Values 2011-2012


63% 69% 72%

37% 31% 28%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1993 2000 2011

Jurisdictional Tax Base 2011-2012


JURISDICTION % COMMERCIAL % RESIDENTIAL

Angier 18% 82% Apex 21% 79% Cary 24% 76% Clayton 0 100% Fuquay Varina 30% 70% Garner 40% 60% Holly Springs 25% 75% Knightdale 33% 67% Morrisville 44% 56% Raleigh 30% 70% Rolesville 20% 80% Wake Forest 21% 79% Wendell 25% 75% Zebulon 71% 29% Countywide 28% 72%

Assessed Values Wake County Assessed Values


** Revaluation Year

2012/13

Projection

$121.3B

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

Mil

lio

ns

Assessed Value Growth


** Revaluation Year

Assessed Value Percent Growth

(Adjusted for Revaluation)

6.2% 6.4%

22.6%

12.4%

5.4% 4.6%

12.0%

4.0% 4.8%

10.1%

12.6%

10.5%

2.2%

1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Actual Property Tax Revenue


Actual Property Tax Revenue

2013

$644,890,000

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mil

lio

ns

Property Tax Revenue


Change in Property Tax Revenue (% Change)

Tax Rate

Increase

Tax Rate

Increase

Tax Rate

Increase

6.2% 6.4%

22.6%

12.4%

5.4% 4.6%

12.0%

4.0% 4.8%

10.1%

12.6%

10.5%

2.2% 1.6%

0.9%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

14

29

21

8

18

10

15

28

22

8

18

9

7

17

20

9

31

16

0 10 20 30 40

Less than high school diploma

High school diploma or equivalency

Some college, no degree

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Graduate or professional degree

Wake County

North Carolina

United States

Hig

he

st L

eve

l

Percent of People 25 years and over

Source. U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey 2010 1-Year Estimates. EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR THE POPULATION 25 YEARS AND OVER.

2010 Educational Attainment for Wake County’s Population 25 years and over: 583,522

47% Bachelor’s Degree or

Higher

Student Enrollment Increase

School Year

Stu

de

nt

Inc

rea

se w

ith

Gro

wth

Ra

tes

Source: Wake County Budget Office & Wake County Schools November 2010

Net Student Increase 2003-2011

4,508

5,099

6,436

7,568

5,930

3,704

1,893

3,690 3,398

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

4.32%

4.68%

5.64%

6.28%

4.63%

2.76%

1.37%

2.64% 2.37%

• Enrollment Projections Lowered with

Continued Delay in Economic Recovery

WCPSS Updated Enrollment

Projections:

BOC Retreat– January 2012 49

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

170,000

180,000

190,000

200,000

Enrollment Projections: CIP 2006, Fall 2009, January 2011 and December 2011

CIP 2006 Enrollment Projections Fall 2009 Enrollment Projections

Jan 2011 Enrollment Projections Dec 2011 Enrollment Projections

50

98,741 Students 146,687 Students

WAKE COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS SYSTEM STUDENT ENROLLMENT

Source: 2000-2001 Data – NC Department of Instruction Education Statistic Access System – Beyond 20/20 Report. 2011-2012 Data Prepared by Maja Vouk, AICP, GISP; WCPSS Director, Demographics Growth and Planning, Fall,2011.

Wake Tech Enrollment

Total Wake Tech Enrollment 2010-2011

Degree/For Credit: 24,814

Continuing Education: 39,658

Source: Wake Technical Community College

52

14,214 14,942 15,238

16,407 17,015 17,465

16,899

18,899

21,193

22,860

24,814

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Wake Tech Curriculum Education Enrollment 2000-2010

Wake Tech CurriculumEducation Enrollment

growth trends...#2 largest municipal population in nc (2010): 720,851 people within city limits*...

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