Growth & Efficiency in the vicinity of Union Square, NY NY

Over Time we create more wealth with a unit of energy, - but not enough to reduce energy consumption.

The incentive for efficiency increases, - but you can’t eliminate all waste so the difficulty grows.

Ref: DOE report http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/carbonemiss/energycarbon2004.pdf slides & Union Square photo p.f.henshaw id@synapse9.com 4/1/07

ConsumptionGrowth curve

EfficiencyDecay Curve

ConsumptionGrowth curve

EfficiencyDecay Curve

Decay Curve Growth curve

Decay CurveIt has to level off, so it has to have been steeper too

Energy Inefficiency = Wastefulness

- 1/W

- 1/W

Maximum Efficiency Limit ?

(Is Never Zero Wastefulness!)

Zero

It was less steep before, so the trend is getting steeper

Zero

When reading curves of change over time if you -feel- the intensity of acceleration, as if a rollercoaster ride, it tells you a lot about the complex changes the curve represents.

Decay curves are settling and predictable Growth curves are unsettling and can come to dramatic ends.

Curious Facts Following the present growth trend, every time the world doubles

energy efficiency it doubles energy consumption too…!

On the next slide click to draw a shutter across the view

Look first at one curve then the other, then both Try to feel the experience, easing down off a steep slope and charging up an ever steeper one.

Ref: DOE report http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/carbonemiss/energycarbon2004.pdf slides & Union Square photo p.f.henshaw id@synapse9.com 4/1/07