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A. Emerson Wiens Three hundred years ago, predicting thefuture was simple: Life 25 years from now willbe the same as this year unless an epidemicstrikes. In those days, a curriculum for educat-ing young people for the future was obvious.Now that the rate of technological and socialchange is on the vertical stem of the J curve,anticipating the future has become essentialfor business but increasingly difficult. Behindthis accelerated rate of change is the computerthat gets twice as smart every 18 months, a factthat Paul Horn, senior vice president of re-search at IBM, predicts will continue for atleast another 15 years (Life, 1997).

Educators in vocational, industrial, tech-nology, and engineering education who wantto prepare students for the future often findprogram and curriculum planning to be diffi-cult. Students in these fields have specialreason to be anxious about the relevancy oftheir education since it prepares them forfuture employment in fields that are changingrapidly. While technological changes are cer-tain, we cannot predict the exact nature andthe speed of the changes with any degree ofcertainty. Yet, a few trends and demographicrealities exist, and some authors are boldenough to suggest the most important foci forindividuals and businesses in the future. Foreducators, some of these trends and directionswill have an impact on who we teach, otherson what we teach, and yet others on how weteach.

My search for trends and social/economicchanges was done by examining severalsources that report demographic data and

trends, and literature in which “world-watcherexperts” in economics and certain industrialfields made predictions. Only recent issues ofjournals, periodic literature, and books werereviewed to obtain the most current data andinterpretations. (See Reference section for com-plete bibliographic information.)

Obviously, there are many more resourcesthat focus on the future. Some writers developcreative scenarios of underground cities, sky-scrapers several miles high, a workless soci-ety, colonies on the moon, life on Mars, andmore. While all of these scenarios may cometrue in time, the resources I selected are, for themost part, quite conservative and based oncurrent trends as opposed to creative specula-tion. For the record, none of the trends weretaken from the National Inquirer.

This article is divided into three sections.The first identifies selected current and antici-pated demographic and economic trends. Thesecond lists key technologies that are antici-pated to be of major importance in the newmillennium. The third section explores severalimplications of these trends for education andindustry.

TRENDSDemographic Changes and Trends

1. Populations shifts: Mitchell (1995) de-scribed the two baby booms that have oc-curred since World War II, and how they willaffect the population configuration in the nextfew years (see Figure 1).• The population of college-aged young people

has hit bottom and will be going up slowly

Dr. Wiens is a Professor in theDepartment of Industrial Tech-nology at Illinois State University,Normal. He is a member of GammaTheta Chapter of Epsilon Pi Tau.

Demographic and Economic Trends: Implications forEducation and Industry

Figure 1. Two baby booms and how they grew. (From Mitchell, 1995, p. 27.)

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from the second baby boom until around2005 where it will peak (Mitchell, 1995).

• As Figure 2 indicates, the first baby boomwill have a “graying” effect on the labor

force by 2006.• While the proportion of children in poverty

during the 1970s fluctuated from 14% to17%, the poverty rate for children in 1993had grown to 23%. “Unfortunately, thenext boomers are divided into haves andhave-nots according to their access totechnology and the ability to build impor-tant skills early in life....The poorest mem-bers of the next baby boom are the leastlikely to have access to up-to-date tech-nology” (Mitchell, 1995, p. 30).

• The population of people over 85 will in-crease four times as fast as the total popu-lation in the next 40 to 50 years.

Economics/Business1. We will continue to move from a na-

tional economy to an international economy.As noted by the Organization for EconomicCooperation and Development (OECD, 1998),a number of non-OECD countries have be-come much more active in world trade in thelast two decades. As Figure 3 indicates, theemerging economies in Asia, excluding Japan,have grown quickly, especially in manufac-turing. Taken as a group, Korea, China, andother Asian emerging market economies hadeasily exceeded the United States in worldmerchandise exports by 1996 (OECD, 1998).

Figure 2. Percent of labor force by age groupin 1996 and projected to 2006. (FromBureau of Labor Statistics, 1998, p. 2.)

Figure 3. Shares in world merchandise trade (percent).

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According to Naisbitt (1996), “the moderniza-tion of Asia economically, politically and cul-turally is by far the most important event takingplace in the world today” (p. 18).

2. While some Western industrialists areconcerned about the added competition re-flected by the increases in exports, particularlyfrom the Asian countries, the positive side isthat markets in these countries are also open-ing as shown by the growth in imports by thesame countries.

3. In 1988, more than 300,000 Americansworked for Japanese companies; 100,000 Japa-nese worked for American ventures in Japan,and Japan’s Ministry of Trade and Industrypredicted that Japanese investment wouldspawn an additional million American jobs bythe year 2000 (Naisbitt & Aburdene, 1990).

These predictions, however, were madebefore the downturn in the Asian economy,and the prophets of the “Asian Century,” an-ticipating the economic dominance of thePacific Rim countries in the new millenium,have fallen suddenly silent. However, one issafe in saying that the potential for economicdominance still exists. China, with its 1.1billion population, was least affected by theeconomic problems of the region because ofits controlled economy, but some economichousekeeping must occur in a number of theother countries before they can continue toprogress at the rate shown in Figure 3.

4. Lester Thurow (1992), dean of the SloanSchool of Management at MIT, noted thatinternational competition will move increas-ingly from niche competition in which coun-tries excelled in different product areas (e.g.,airplanes or computers) to head-to-head com-petition, in which the major players (U.S.,European community, and the Pacific Rim) allwant to compete for the same markets: micro-electronics, biotechnology, the new materi-als-science industries, telecommunications,civilian aviation, robotics plus machine tools,and computers plus software.

5. Services, from advertising and legal coun-sel to automotive repair and take-out food,have become the fastest growing part of theeconomy with 12.3% growth from 1987 to1992 compared to 1.5% for the retail sector(see Figure 4). One fourth of the service indus-try is health care, driven in part by use ofexpensive technology and an aging popula-tion (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1996). Cur-rently, health services coupled with businessand professional services account for nearlytwo thirds of service firms. Services, like thegoods-producing industry, will have an edge ifthey master technological change, developniche marketing skills, and focus on customerservice (Du, Mergenhagen, & Lee, 1995, p.32).

6. The fastest growing service area is ex-pected to be business services, which is neces-

Figure 4. Projected job openings due to growth and replacement needs by majoroccupational group, 1994-2005 (Bureau of Labor Statistices, 1996, p. 2).

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sitated in part by new technology (i.e., hard-ware and software), but also involves consult-ants and accounting and legal services (seeFigure 5). Even smaller companies are increas-ingly turning to service providers where theydo not possess the necessary expertise in-

the most education and training will be thefastest growing and highest paying (Bureau ofLabor Statistics, 1996). According to the 1998-99 edition of the Occupational Outlook Hand-book (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1998), “of the25 occupations with fast growth, high pay,and low unemployment that have the largestnumerical growth, 18 require at least abachelor’s degree” (p. 4). This list includes fivein computer science, four in health care, andfive in education.

11. Drucker (1994) stated that we are enter-ing the knowledge society in which the acqui-sition and distribution of formal knowledgemay come to occupy the place in the politicsof the knowledge society that the acquisitionand distribution of property and income haveoccupied in our politics over the two or threecenturies that we have come to call the Age ofCapitalism. Knowledge workers, he suggested,will own the “tools of production” (p. 66) intheir knowledge.

12. In the 1970s and 1980s, women tooktwo thirds of the millions of new jobs createdin the information sector (Naisbitt & Aburdene,1990). Currently 46% of the workforce, womenare projected to comprise 48% by 2005 (Bu-reau of Labor Statistics, 1996).

Women’s pay still lags males’. However,gains have been bolstered with a 22.7% rise(inflation adjusted) for college graduates since1979, while wages for female high schooldropouts fell by nearly 9% in the same period(Kacapyr, 1998). Will (1999) noted that“among people 27 to 33, women who havenever had a child earn about 98 cents for everydollar men earn.” The point that is made byresearchers Furchtgott-Roth and Stolba (1996)is that children tend to disrupt the career pathsof many women and most women do not havethe requiste MBA or law degree usuallynessecary to support a position as a seniormember at Fortune 1000 industrial and For-tune 500 service companies.

13. A major problem facing many busi-nesses immediately is the year 2000 compli-ance (Y2K) issue. To save memory, older com-puters and software were coded with only atwo-digit date (i.e., the last two numbers of theyear). Hence, the year 2000 will be 00, not2000. To correct this problem, General Mo-tors alone expects to spend between $400million and $550 million (Bylinsky, 1998).Counting the costs of replacement of hard-ware and software, legal fees (which mayexceed equipment costs), and labor in correct-ing the problem, the total costs may exceed atrillion dollars worldwide.

The problem exists in every aspect of soci-ety dependent on computers. Manufacturers,

Figure 5. Projected employment change inservice industries, 1994-2005 (From Bureauof Labor Statistics, 1996, p. 1.)

house.7. While production workers in manufac-

turing will continue to be replaced by technol-ogy, there will be an increase in the number ofprofessional positions in manufacturing by2005. Hiring requirements in many manage-rial and administrative jobs are becomingmore stringent; work experience, specializedtraining, or graduate study as well as computerliteracy will be increasingly necessary (Bureauof Labor Statistics, 1996).

8. Construction is expected to increase by26%, but it will be primarily in infrastructurebuilding (i.e., bridges, roads, and tunnels).Housing and office building construction willbe slower (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1996).

9. The economy will continue to shift froman industrial economy to an informationeconomy (The Global Network, 1997; “KeyTechnologies,” 1995). At the core of the infor-mation economy is the computer and theinformation highway, but it is much more: all-optical networks, wireless networks, intelli-gent software, virtual reality, satellite technol-ogy, “smart” credit cards, and more.

10. Many of the available jobs in the nearfuture will require the least education andtraining, but these tend to be low-pay, dead-end jobs. However, the occupations requiring

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however, are more vulnerable than most otherbusinesses because of the variety of equip-ment that has date sensitivity embedded insilicon chips and/or in the software. If in-scribed on silicon chips, whole pieces of fac-tory equipment will have to be scrapped, fromtime clocks to CNC robots and machine tools.Unfortunately, not enough programmers areavailable worldwide to solve all of the prob-lems. Although most large companies are ad-dressing the problem, they are also at themercy of their suppliers. Small companies thatcannot guarantee year 2000 compliance willbe replaced with other vendors by the largercompanies (Bylinsky, 1998).

IMPORTANT TECHNOLOGIES IN THENEXT 20 YEARS

To provide a more complete picture of thefuture for education decision makers, I alsosought to identify the technologies that will bethe most important as the new millenniumbegins. Several lists of technologies for the21st century have appeared in books andjournals. Burris (1993) listed 20 core tech-nologies, and the Scientific American com-mitted an issue to “Key Technologies for the21st Century” (1995), with articles describingmore than 20 technologies. Thurow (1992)listed seven categories of technology in whichthere will be major competition. A final articlereviewed was the list of 10 technologies “forthe next ten years” by the president of Battelle,Douglas E. Olesen (1996). These lists havebeen compiled in Table 1. To provide somesemblance of order, they are organized bymajor technology headings.

Of the 35 technologies identified in thesefour sources, only eight technologies appearedin at least three of the lists (marked with anasterisk in Table 1). Five of these were in theinformation field with one in gene mapping/biotechnology, one in microscopic (nano)machines, and one in super materials. Ofequal interest are the two major categories thatwere identified as important by fewer thanthree list makers: transportation technologiesand energy/environmental technologies.

IMPLICATIONS OF THE TRENDS

The roots of the future are firmly establishedin today’s trends: a service economy in whichall sectors—goods producing and servicesalike—will rely heavily on information sys-tems technology and the knowledge worker.Business will be increasingly globalized. Thismeans that the customer base for products andservices will expand dramatically, especially

as the former socialistic countries and Chinabecome more market driven, but it also meansthat competition for the same markets willbecome increasingly fierce, especially amongthe European group, the Pacific Rim countries,and the United States. This competition willrequire industry in the United States to explorenew ways of doing business, to be more agile.Many companies that thought they were iso-lated and insulated may suddenly find them-selves competing with companies from otherparts of the world. Alliances and other forms ofcooperative arrangements between suppliersand industries that use the materials and ser-vices will become a necessary ingredient ofsurvival (Preiss, Golman, & Nagel, 1996).These shifts and trends have significant impli-cations for both industry and education.

For EducationThe implications for education of the infor-

mation gathered for this paper depend on thelevel and purpose of the education programbeing considered. If technology education atthe secondary and undergraduate levels isbeing addressed, knowledge about or aware-ness of most of the technologies listed in thetable as well as the societal interaction withthose technologies should be considered partof technological literacy.

If the program is engineering technology,industrial technology, or industrial engineer-ing at the undergraduate or graduate level,career preparation is the goal. Then decisionsmust be made regarding which of the tech-nologies belong in each type of program. Thisis obviously a difficult task, especially becausethe technologies are becoming increasinglymore sophisticated across the board. Most, ifnot all, of these programs have steered awayfrom biotechnology. The focus has been pri-marily on manufacturing materials and pro-cesses, certain aspects of telecommunicationsand information technology, and selected top-ics in the energy area. Are current programstoo narrowly conceived? What are the practi-cal considerations regarding expansion? Whatcan institutions afford to include? Obviously,there is no point in duplicating what is donebetter at other technical levels. Yet, changesare taking place. Are programs adapting tothose changes or lagging behind them?• Students need to know much more about the

aspects of being involved in internationalbusiness; they need to be aware of andhonor cultural differences and understandhow these differences influence doingbusiness in these countries. Employeeswho are bilingual and understand othercultures have an edge in international

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Table 1

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companies. Classes in both internationalbusiness and foreign language would bebeneficial in providing tools for studentsin industrial and technical education.

• While we have touted the value of industrialinternships in career preparation, we mustnow consider opportunities for interna-tional business internships. Professionalpractice internships and/or coop programsare important components of many cur-rent programs. Now we need to identifycompanies that do business internation-ally and develop internship programs thatwill introduce students to that dimensionof the job market. Perhaps a state’s liaisonoffice in Japan could help with such con-nections. (As of 1990, 40 American statesalready had liaison offices in Japan[Naisbitt & Aburdene, 1990].)

• The technical needs of industry need to beaddressed. Besides specific attention tothe selected cutting-edge technologieslisted in the “Important Technologies ofthe Next 20 Years,” subject matter inconcurrent engineering, designed-in qual-ity, flexible manufacturing, statistical qual-ity and process control tools, robots/auto-mation, computer numerical control, othercontrol systems, and rapid prototypingare subjects that need to be addressed atall levels of technology and technicaleducation and also addressed in depth ifwe are to supply the competitive tech-nologists and managers for the expand-ing, competitive marketplace.

• Figure 2 illustrated the movement of thepost-WWII baby boomers in the laborforce. By 2006, the largest group in theworkforce will be from age 35 to 54. Thisshift toward an older workforce, most ofwhose formal education occurred prior tothe advent of the personal computer,should alert the education community tothe need to provide continuing educationfor these adults. This will require assess-ment of technical needs as well as deliv-ery techniques. On-site delivery tech-niques using closed-circuit interactivevideo classrooms, Internet delivery, andother types of electronic instructional mo-dalities are growing in popularity.

• With the first post-war baby boomers reach-ing retirement age in the next 10 years,contractors can look forward to buildingretirement homes for the largest and mostaffluent retirement crowd yet. Construc-tion technology programs would be welladvised to begin addressing the designfeatures and the technical systems thatprovide safety, convenience, and comfort

in residential housing.• As technology sophistication accelerates,

and the level of the technical sophistica-tion of our graduates rises, their ability towork in teams, to communicate their ex-pertise in problem solving, and to incor-porate the knowledge of others becomesmore essential.

• The service economy will offer many low-wage, low-experience, low-hope jobs forthe least educated. But the service sectorwill also offer many opportunities foremployment that require personnel whoare well prepared in technical subjects.Are we emphasizing the competencies inour programs to prepare our graduates totroubleshoot in technical areas and towork with clients/customers who are likelyto be increasingly demanding in a highlycompetitive future?

• The customer focus must also become acentral theme in our curriculum just as itis becoming a central focus for companiesthat wish to remain in business. Collabo-ration with a marketing department maybe useful to achieve this. Today, the con-cept of customer has been broadenedimmensely beyond the buyer of productsand services. It includes the next personon the assembly line as well as servicedepartment personnel and industrial con-sultants.

• Currently, women are increasing as a per-centage of the labor force and are beingattracted disproportionately to informa-tion jobs. Whether more can be attractedto enter industrial fields may depend onthe ability of these programs to market theapplications of information systems in in-dustry. Women are also disproportion-ately absent in high-level managerial po-sitions, yet are quite capable as shown bytheir success rates in entrepreneurial ef-forts. Industrial management programsshould seek and encourage women toconsider their potential in such a field.

• Just as businesses will increasingly benefitfrom alliances with other businesses, in-dustrial and technology education wouldserve its customers (students) betterthrough alliances with the business col-leges/departments as well as with com-mercial businesses and industries. Thiswill not be easy in most cases since turfownership pervades higher education.Such alliances can only be developedsuccessfully in a win-win atmosphere.

• The building blocks of the informationeconomy focus on microprocessors, digi-tal electronics, optical and wireless net-

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works, artificial intelligence, and relatedtechnology. Are students prepared in theseareas?

• As a result of the demographic shifts that arealready identifiable, U.S. society in 2010will be more ethnically diverse with agreater split between haves and have-nots. This split is not only monetary (i.e.,increasing number of children in poverty)but also in technical savvy and computerskills. Higher education may not be sig-nificantly impacted by these demographicchanges since most of the poorly equippedyoung people may not attempt college.But they will likely be part of technologyand vocational education programs in thepublic schools and, to some degree, com-munity colleges. Remedial programs maybe necessary to bring these students up tospeed so they can compete for jobs with afuture.

For Industry• The first order of business for industries is to

resolve the Y2K problem. An inventorymust be made of all date-sensitive equip-ment and action taken to repair (if pos-sible), replace, or discard.

• Success will come to those companies thatidentify emerging markets first and get theproduct or service concept developed andmarketed to the customers ahead of thecompetition. Concurrent engineering andrapid prototyping will become necessi-ties.

• The focus will be on the customer as neverbefore; this translates into customizationand flexibility so that varieties of productsor services can be initiated quickly andresponsively. In the new century, Drucker(1994) noted that the service industriesneed to follow the pattern of agricultureand manufacturing in raising productivitywithout sacrificing the customer focus.Value-added will become the criteria forall processes and divisions within organi-zations. These changes have direct impli-cations for industry and education. Ascompetition on the same product line orservice line increases, customer servicemay well be the determining factor for

which company gets the contract. Theconcept of customer has been broadenedimmensely in recent years and needs to beaddressed in employment policies andthe training of workers.

• Concurrent engineering, designed-in qual-ity, flexible manufacturing, statistical qual-ity and process control tools, robots/auto-mation, and rapid prototyping are prac-tices that are helping companies gain acompetitive edge. With the advent ofcomputerization of the manufacturingprocesses, production will continue tomove from mass production to masscustomization. Customization will relygreatly on flexible manufacturing systems(FMS) and computer integrated manufac-turing (CIM).

The list above addresses implications forindustry and for educational content. In mostcases, these trends have been visible for adecade or more. Updating a program requiresupdating faculty to the industrial environmentof the future. This is a challenge for administra-tors at all levels and requires in-service educa-tion, participation in commercial exhibits andconventions, and other opportunities such asindustrial internships not that different fromwhat students are offered.

In addition to content, however, new tech-nologies offer new ways of teaching and learn-ing: distance learning with closed circuit orcompressed video networks, distance learn-ing via the Internet, virtual reality, interactiveCDs, and other modes in process. Degrees aswell as term papers are already offered via theInternet, and competition in the globaleconomy is coming to higher education byway of the Internet and digitized technologiesvery soon. Is it not likely that Microsoft andDisney will collaborate to offer courses anddegrees. Why not? Microsoft already owns alarge collection of important artistic and his-toric works that is often used in teaching.Personnel from Microsoft have also paid sev-eral visits to higher education institutions togather information about pedagogy as well ascontent of exemplary programs (Blumenstyk,1998). Is higher education ready for the nextcentury?

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