gujarat state petronet07nov21

10
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. © Your success is our success Emkay India Equity Research | Oil & Gas November 7, 2021 Result Update Gujarat State Petronet Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report In-line operating performance Q2FY22 standalone revenue/EBITDA/APAT stood at Rs5.89bn/3.81bn/3.30bn, up 2%/flat/up 21% yoy and up 12%/2%/42% qoq. EBITDA was largely in line. Lower interest cost (28% below est.), higher Other Income and lower tax rate (20%) led to the PAT beat. Gas transmission volumes rose 2%, or 0.7mmscmd, qoq to 37.5mmscmd (down 6% yoy, in line), with CGD volumes up 2.1mmscmd offset by refinery-petchem (down 1.7mmscmd). Fertilizer/Others rose 0.8/0.5mmscmd; Power was down by 0.3mmscmd qoq. Tariff realization came in at Rs1.26/scm, up 2% yoy/down 2% qoq (2% below est.). Unit opex was down 1% qoq/10% yoy to Rs0.19/scm. Other Expenditure fell 21% yoy but remained flat qoq at Rs522mn. Outstanding debt declined 35% qoq to Rs4.82bn. We cut FY22E EPS by 3% on weak Q3 volumes from spot LNG spike; however, we raise FY23/24E EPS by 4% each, building in higher Other Income. Our Dec’22 TP is up 31% to Rs430, primarily due to the revision in Gujarat Gas stake FV. Retain Buy with EW stance. Relative price chart Source: Bloomberg This report is solely produced by Emkay Global. The following person(s) are responsible for the production of the recommendation: Sabri Hazarika [email protected] +91 22 6612 1282 Tanay Gabhawala [email protected] +91 22 6612 1336 -20 -6 8 22 36 50 150 195 240 285 330 375 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21Nov-21 % Rs Gujarat State Petronet (LHS) Rel to Nifty (RHS) Highlights: The adjustment in Gas Transmission Cost (up 24% yoy/61% qoq) led to reported revenue being optically higher than our estimate. Employee cost rose by 14% yoy/13% qoq to Rs146mn. Depreciation was up 2% qoq to Rs491mn. Interest cost declined 39% qoq to Rs86mn. Electricity income was up by 70% yoy/22% qoq to Rs129mn. Standalone EBITDA/scm fell 1% qoq to Rs1.1 (up 6% yoy and inline). Other Income of Rs904mn, up 76% yoy, had Gujarat Gas dividend (6% beat to our estimate). The tax rate was 20.2%, likely due to the dividend income adjustment. Cash-flow statement capex was Rs408mn in H1FY22. Guidance: Current volumes are down to 32-33mmscmd, as factors such as high spot LNG prices and festivals has affected CGD and power segment demand. Q3FY22 average volumes could be down 10-11% qoq. There was no update on the tariff process. Only one board member is currently there in the PNGRB and is awaiting further appointments. The Mehsana-Bhatinda pipeline is expected to be commissioned by November 2021-end and take 12 more months to reach 10mmscmd+ volumes, as targeted. Standalone capex for FY22 would not be significant. GSPL is firming up on new capex plans. Valuation: We value GSPL on a SOTP basis, with core business using DCF. We roll over from Mar’23 to Dec’23 estimates. Our TP increase from Rs330 to Rs430 is primarily driven by an increase in the value of Gujarat Gas stake (our TP increased from Rs520 to Rs630), with a 30% holdco discount. Key risks: Adverse oil-gas prices/demand, industrial slowdown, cost overruns and regulatory overhangs. Please see our sector model portfolio (Emkay Alpha Portfolio): Oil & Gas (page 7) CMP Target Price Rs 325 Rs 430 (▲) as of (November 7, 2021) 12 months Rating Upside BUY (■) 32.5 % Change in Estimates EPS Chg FY22E/FY23E (%) (3)/4 Target Price change (%) 30.6 Target Period (Months) 12 Previous Reco BUY Emkay vs Consensus EPS Estimates FY22E FY23E Emkay 16.9 11.5 Consensus 16.6 17.3 Mean Consensus TP (12M) Rs 382 Stock Details Bloomberg Code GUJS IN Face Value (Rs) 10 Shares outstanding (mn) 564 52 Week H/L 383 / 184 M Cap (Rs bn/USD bn) 183 / 2.46 Daily Avg Volume (nos.) 1,107,774 Daily Avg Turnover (US$ mn) 5.0 Shareholding Pattern Sep '21 Promoters 37.6% FIIs 17.5% DIIs 20.0% Public and Others 24.9% Price Performance (%) 1M 3M 6M 12M Absolute 3 (6) 19 75 Rel. to Nifty 2 (15) (2) 16 Financial Snapshot (Standalone) (Rs mn) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E Revenue 23,631 20,794 20,744 15,497 16,689 EBITDA 15,766 14,733 14,122 9,837 10,549 EBITDA Margin (%) 66.7 70.9 68.1 63.5 63.2 APAT 9,591 9,325 9,546 6,483 7,165 EPS (Rs) 17.0 16.5 16.9 11.5 12.7 EPS (% chg) 20.7 (2.8) 2.3 (32.1) 10.5 ROE (%) 15.4 13.1 12.0 7.5 7.8 P/E (x) 19.1 19.7 19.2 28.3 25.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 12.6 13.1 13.2 18.4 16.6 P/BV (x) 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.9 Source: Company, Emkay Research

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Page 1: Gujarat State Petronet07Nov21

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore.

©

Your success is our success

Emkay

India Equity Research | Oil & Gas

November 7, 2021

Result Update

Gujarat State Petronet Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

In-line operating performance

Q2FY22 standalone revenue/EBITDA/APAT stood at Rs5.89bn/3.81bn/3.30bn, up

2%/flat/up 21% yoy and up 12%/2%/42% qoq. EBITDA was largely in line. Lower interest

cost (28% below est.), higher Other Income and lower tax rate (20%) led to the PAT beat.

Gas transmission volumes rose 2%, or 0.7mmscmd, qoq to 37.5mmscmd (down 6% yoy,

in line), with CGD volumes up 2.1mmscmd offset by refinery-petchem (down 1.7mmscmd).

Fertilizer/Others rose 0.8/0.5mmscmd; Power was down by 0.3mmscmd qoq.

Tariff realization came in at Rs1.26/scm, up 2% yoy/down 2% qoq (2% below est.). Unit

opex was down 1% qoq/10% yoy to Rs0.19/scm. Other Expenditure fell 21% yoy but

remained flat qoq at Rs522mn. Outstanding debt declined 35% qoq to Rs4.82bn.

We cut FY22E EPS by 3% on weak Q3 volumes from spot LNG spike; however, we raise

FY23/24E EPS by 4% each, building in higher Other Income. Our Dec’22 TP is up 31% to

Rs430, primarily due to the revision in Gujarat Gas stake FV. Retain Buy with EW stance.

Relative price chart

Source: Bloomberg This report is solely produced by Emkay Global. The following person(s) are responsible for the production of the recommendation:

Sabri Hazarika

[email protected]

+91 22 6612 1282

Tanay Gabhawala

[email protected]

+91 22 6612 1336

-20

-6

8

22

36

50

150

195

240

285

330

375

Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21Nov-21

%Rs

Gujarat State Petronet (LHS) Rel to Nifty (RHS)

Highlights: The adjustment in Gas Transmission Cost (up 24% yoy/61% qoq) led to reported

revenue being optically higher than our estimate. Employee cost rose by 14% yoy/13% qoq

to Rs146mn. Depreciation was up 2% qoq to Rs491mn. Interest cost declined 39% qoq to

Rs86mn. Electricity income was up by 70% yoy/22% qoq to Rs129mn. Standalone

EBITDA/scm fell 1% qoq to Rs1.1 (up 6% yoy and inline). Other Income of Rs904mn, up 76%

yoy, had Gujarat Gas dividend (6% beat to our estimate). The tax rate was 20.2%, likely due

to the dividend income adjustment. Cash-flow statement capex was Rs408mn in H1FY22.

Guidance: Current volumes are down to 32-33mmscmd, as factors such as high spot LNG

prices and festivals has affected CGD and power segment demand. Q3FY22 average

volumes could be down 10-11% qoq. There was no update on the tariff process. Only one

board member is currently there in the PNGRB and is awaiting further appointments. The

Mehsana-Bhatinda pipeline is expected to be commissioned by November 2021-end and take

12 more months to reach 10mmscmd+ volumes, as targeted. Standalone capex for FY22

would not be significant. GSPL is firming up on new capex plans.

Valuation: We value GSPL on a SOTP basis, with core business using DCF. We roll over

from Mar’23 to Dec’23 estimates. Our TP increase from Rs330 to Rs430 is primarily driven

by an increase in the value of Gujarat Gas stake (our TP increased from Rs520 to Rs630),

with a 30% holdco discount. Key risks: Adverse oil-gas prices/demand, industrial slowdown,

cost overruns and regulatory overhangs.

Please see our sector model portfolio (Emkay Alpha Portfolio): Oil & Gas (page 7)

CMP Target Price

Rs 325 Rs 430 (▲) as of (November 7, 2021) 12 months

Rating Upside

BUY (■) 32.5 %

Change in Estimates

EPS Chg FY22E/FY23E (%) (3)/4

Target Price change (%) 30.6

Target Period (Months) 12

Previous Reco BUY

Emkay vs Consensus

EPS Estimates

FY22E FY23E

Emkay 16.9 11.5

Consensus 16.6 17.3

Mean Consensus TP (12M) Rs 382

Stock Details

Bloomberg Code GUJS IN

Face Value (Rs) 10

Shares outstanding (mn) 564

52 Week H/L 383 / 184

M Cap (Rs bn/USD bn) 183 / 2.46

Daily Avg Volume (nos.) 1,107,774

Daily Avg Turnover (US$ mn) 5.0

Shareholding Pattern Sep '21

Promoters 37.6%

FIIs 17.5%

DIIs 20.0%

Public and Others 24.9%

Price Performance

(%) 1M 3M 6M 12M

Absolute 3 (6) 19 75

Rel. to Nifty 2 (15) (2) 16

Financial Snapshot (Standalone)

(Rs mn) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E

Revenue 23,631 20,794 20,744 15,497 16,689

EBITDA 15,766 14,733 14,122 9,837 10,549

EBITDA Margin (%) 66.7 70.9 68.1 63.5 63.2

APAT 9,591 9,325 9,546 6,483 7,165

EPS (Rs) 17.0 16.5 16.9 11.5 12.7

EPS (% chg) 20.7 (2.8) 2.3 (32.1) 10.5

ROE (%) 15.4 13.1 12.0 7.5 7.8

P/E (x) 19.1 19.7 19.2 28.3 25.6

EV/EBITDA (x) 12.6 13.1 13.2 18.4 16.6

P/BV (x) 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.9

Source: Company, Emkay Research

Page 2: Gujarat State Petronet07Nov21

Gujarat State Petronet (GUJS IN) India Equity Research | Result Update

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore.

November 7, 2021 | 2

Exhibit 1: Actual vs. Estimates (Q2FY22)

Rs mn Actual Estimates

(Emkay)

Consensus Estimates

(Bloomberg)

Variation Comment

Emkay Consensus

Total Revenue 5,885 5,419 5,343 9% 10% Due to gas transmission cost adjustment

Adjusted EBITDA 3,806 3,836 3,803 -1% 0% Lower unit opex offset by lower tariffs

EBITDA Margin (%) 65% 71% 71% (613) (652)

Adjusted Net Profit 3,298 3,053 2,712 8% 22% Due to lower interest-ETR, higher Other Income

Source: Company, Emkay Research

Exhibit 2: Quarterly summary

Rs mn Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Q2FY22 % yoy % qoq H1FY21 H1FY22 % yoy

Reported Net Revenue 5,747 5,800 4,650 5,272 5,885 2% 12% 10,390 11,157 7%

-Gas Transmission 5,671 5,718 4,601 5,166 5,756 1% 11% 10,213 10,922 7%

-Sale of Electricity 76 45 49 106 129 70% 22% 169 235 40%

-CGD Business/Adj. -0 37 -0 NA NA 9 NA

OPEX 1,926 1,816 1,208 1,528 2,079 8% 36% 3,107 3,608 16%

-Employee Cost 128 160 169 130 146 14% 13% 262 276 5%

-Gas Transmission 1,136 1,210 712 876 1,411 24% 61% 1,751 2,287 31%

-Others 662 447 327 523 522 -21% 0% 1,094 1,045 -4%

EBITDA 3,821 3,984 3,442 3,744 3,806 0% 2% 7,282 7,550 4%

Depreciation 547 511 497 481 491 -10% 2% 1,035 972 -6%

EBIT 3,273 3,473 2,945 3,263 3,315 1% 2% 6,247 6,578 5%

Interest Cost 247 220 174 140 86 -65% -39% 537 226 -58%

Other Income 515 74 61 38 904 76% 2286% 558 942 69%

PBT 3,541 3,328 2,833 3,161 4,133 17% 31% 6,268 7,294 16%

Exceptional Items -17 - -17 -14 -27 -17 -41

PBT After Exceptionals 3,524 3,328 2,816 3,148 4,106 17% 30% 6,251 7,254 16%

Current Tax 843 818 646 812 816 -3% 0% 1,566 1,627 4%

Deferred Tax -31 35 108 17 14 -18% -21 30

Total Tax 813 853 753 828 829 2% 0% 1,546 1,658 7%

Reported PAT 2,711 2,475 2,063 2,319 3,277 21% 41% 4,705 5,596 19%

Reported EPS (Rs.) 4.8 4.4 3.7 4.1 5.8 21% 41% 8.3 9.9 19%

Adjusted PAT 2,724 2,475 2,075 2,329 3,298 21% 42% 4,718 5,628 19%

Adjusted EPS (Rs.) 4.8 4.4 3.7 4.1 5.8 21% 42% 8.4 10.0 19%

Shares O/S (mn) 564 564 564 564 564 0% 0% 564 564 0%

EBITDA Margin 66% 69% 74% 71% 65% -3% -9% 70% 68%

NPM 47% 43% 44% 44% 56% 18% 27% 45% 50%

Effective Tax Rate 23% 26% 27% 26% 20% -12% -23% 25% 23%

Gas Volumes (mmscmd) 39.8 39.4 33.8 36.8 37.5 -6% 2% 36.5 37.1 2%

CGD Share 27% 32% 40% 30% 35% 21% 33%

Refinery/Petchem Share 25% 18% 22% 32% 27% 29% 29%

Fertilizer Share 8% 10% 9% 7% 9% 8% 8%

Power Share 23% 23% 14% 15% 14% 27% 14%

Other Segments Share 17% 17% 15% 16% 15% 15% 15%

Adjusted Tariff (Rs/scm) 1.24 1.25 1.28 1.28 1.26 2% -2% 1.27 1.27 0%

Adjusted OPEX/scm (Rs) 0.22 0.17 0.16 0.19 0.19 -10% -1% 0.20 0.19 -4%

EBITDA/scm (Rs) 1.04 1.10 1.13 1.12 1.10 6% -1% 1.09 1.11 2%

Source: Company, Emkay Research

Page 3: Gujarat State Petronet07Nov21

Gujarat State Petronet (GUJS IN) India Equity Research | Result Update

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore.

November 7, 2021 | 3

Exhibit 3: Changes in assumptions

FY22E FY23E FY24E

Previous Revised Variance Previous Revised Variance Previous Revised Variance

Adj Tariff (Rs./mscm) 1,263 1,269 1% 833 825 -1% 825 825 0%

Growth 0% 0% 50bps -34% -35% -100bps -1% 0% 100bps

Volumes (mmscmd) 38.0 35.0 -8% 41.0 40.0 -2% 44.0 43.0 -2%

Growth 4% -4% -820bps 8% 14% 639bps 7% 8% 18bps

Source: Company, Emkay Research

Exhibit 4: Changes in estimates

Rs mn FY22E FY23E FY24E

Previous Revised Variance Previous Revised Variance Previous Revised Variance

Revenue 22,210 20,744 -7% 15,962 15,497 -3% 16,996 16,689 -2%

EBITDA 15,033 14,122 -6% 9,958 9,837 -1% 10,530 10,549 0%

EBITDA Margins 68% 68% 39bps 62% 63% 109bps 62% 63% 125bps

PAT 9,794 9,546 -3% 6,257 6,483 4% 6,882 7,165 4%

EPS (Rs) 17.3 16.9 -3% 11.1 11.5 4% 12.2 12.7 4%

Source: Company, Emkay Research

Exhibit 5: DCF valuation of core business

DCF Assumptions Dec’23E (Rs mn) Standalone

Risk Free Rate 6.0% NPV Of FCF 39,042

Risk Premium 5.5% Terminal Value 71,818

Beta 0.8 PV Of TV 28,939

Cost Of Equity 10.3% Total Value 67,981

Cost Of Debt 9.0% Less: Net Debt (Dec’22E) (1,498)

Post Tax Cost Of Debt 6.8% Equity Value 69,479

Average Debt: Equity Ratio 30.0% No. Of Shares O/S (mn) 565

WACC 9.5% Core Business Fair Value (Rs.) 123

Terminal Growth Rate 0.0%

Source: Company, Emkay Research

Exhibit 6: Value of Gujarat Gas stake

Gujarat Gas Ltd at FV (Rs mn)

FV (Rs/sh) 630

No. Of Shares O/S (m) 689

FV of GGL 434,070

At 30% HoldCo Discount 303,849

GSPL's Stake 54.2%

GSPL's Value 164,565

GSPL's Shares O/S (mn) 565

Value/share For GSPL 291

Source: Company, Emkay Research

Exhibit 7: SOTP valuation

Parts (Rs) Method Value

Core Gujarat Transmission Business DCF Based 123

Gujarat Gas Stake FV Based 291

New Cross Country Pipeline DCF Based 9

SGL Stake 15x Norm. PE at 30% Disc. 7

Target Price 430

Source: Company, Emkay Research

Page 4: Gujarat State Petronet07Nov21

Gujarat State Petronet (GUJS IN) India Equity Research | Result Update

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore.

November 7, 2021 | 4

Key Financials (Standalone)

Income Statement

Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E

Revenue 23,631 20,794 20,744 15,497 16,689

Expenditure 7,866 6,061 6,622 5,660 6,140

EBITDA 15,766 14,733 14,122 9,837 10,549

Depreciation 1,946 2,030 2,056 2,221 2,370

EBIT 13,820 12,703 12,066 7,616 8,179

Other Income 647 693 903 1,206 1,428

Interest expenses 1,644 929 357 155 28

PBT 12,823 12,467 12,611 8,668 9,579

Tax 3,195 3,057 3,015 2,184 2,414

Extraordinary Items (37) (85) (50) 0 0

Minority Int./Income from Assoc. 0 0 0 0 0

Reported Net Income 11,050 9,158 9,496 6,483 7,165

Adjusted PAT 9,591 9,325 9,546 6,483 7,165

Balance Sheet

Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E

Equity share capital 5,641 5,642 5,645 5,648 5,651

Reserves & surplus 61,584 69,808 77,922 83,369 89,316

Net worth 67,226 75,450 83,567 89,016 94,966

Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0

Loan Funds 16,685 10,649 3,649 649 149

Net deferred tax liability 4,081 4,218 4,311 4,400 4,484

Total Liabilities 87,992 90,317 91,527 94,065 99,599

Net block 35,857 34,667 34,502 35,614 36,543

Investment 46,217 50,087 50,087 50,087 50,087

Current Assets 6,582 6,758 7,121 8,820 13,814

Cash & bank balance 957 877 1,151 3,478 8,203

Other Current Assets 1,015 1,540 1,571 1,602 1,635

Current liabilities & Provision 3,037 3,411 3,507 3,448 3,538

Net current assets 3,545 3,347 3,614 5,372 10,276

Misc. exp 0 0 0 0 0

Total Assets 87,992 90,317 91,527 94,065 99,599

Cash Flow

Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E

PBT (Ex-Other income) (NI+Dep) 12,175 11,774 11,709 7,462 8,151

Other Non-Cash items 26 20 (50) 0 0

Chg in working cap (1,870) 256 100 657 (95)

Operating Cashflow 13,602 12,412 11,158 8,310 8,040

Capital expenditure 94 (684) (3,000) (3,000) (3,000)

Free Cash Flow 13,696 11,728 8,158 5,310 5,040

Investments (3,414) (3,870) 0 0 0

Other Investing Cash Flow (1,259) (540) 0 0 0

Investing Cashflow (3,931) (4,401) (2,097) (1,794) (1,572)

Equity Capital Raised 1 1 3 3 3

Loans Taken / (Repaid) (7,167) (6,036) (7,000) (3,000) (500)

Dividend paid (incl tax) (1,283) (1,128) (1,432) (1,037) (1,218)

Other Financing Cash Flow (204) 2 0 0 0

Financing Cashflow (10,297) (8,091) (8,787) (4,189) (1,743)

Net chg in cash (626) (79) 274 2,327 4,725

Opening cash position 1,583 957 877 1,151 3,478

Closing cash position 957 878 1,151 3,478 8,203

Source: Company, Emkay Research

Page 5: Gujarat State Petronet07Nov21

Gujarat State Petronet (GUJS IN) India Equity Research | Result Update

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore.

November 7, 2021 | 5

Key Ratios

Profitability (%) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E

EBITDA Margin 66.7 70.9 68.1 63.5 63.2

EBIT Margin 58.5 61.1 58.2 49.1 49.0

Effective Tax Rate 24.9 24.5 23.9 25.2 25.2

Net Margin 40.7 45.3 46.3 41.8 42.9

ROCE 16.6 15.0 14.3 9.5 9.9

ROE 15.4 13.1 12.0 7.5 7.8

RoIC 36.2 33.6 32.6 20.5 21.5

Per Share Data (Rs) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E

EPS 17.0 16.5 16.9 11.5 12.7

CEPS 20.5 20.1 20.6 15.4 16.9

BVPS 119.2 133.7 148.0 157.6 168.1

DPS 2.0 2.0 2.5 1.8 2.2

Valuations (x) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E

PER 19.1 19.7 19.2 28.3 25.6

P/CEPS 15.9 16.1 15.8 21.1 19.3

P/BV 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.9

EV / Sales 8.4 9.3 9.0 11.7 10.5

EV / EBITDA 12.6 13.1 13.2 18.4 16.6

Dividend Yield (%) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7

Gearing Ratio (x) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E

Net Debt/ Equity 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 (0.1)

Net Debt/EBIDTA 1.0 0.7 0.2 (0.3) (0.8)

Working Cap Cycle (days) 25.7 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2

Growth (%) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E

Revenue 25.9 (12.0) (0.2) (25.3) 7.7

EBITDA 2.2 (6.5) (4.1) (30.3) 7.2

EBIT 1.4 (8.1) (5.0) (36.9) 7.4

PAT 39.1 (17.1) 3.7 (31.7) 10.5

Quarterly (Rs mn) Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Q2FY22

Revenue 5,747 5,800 4,650 5,272 5,885

EBITDA 3,821 3,984 3,442 3,744 3,806

EBITDA Margin (%) 66.5 68.7 74.0 71.0 64.7

PAT 2,711 2,475 2,063 2,319 3,277

EPS (Rs) 4.8 4.4 3.7 4.1 5.8

Source: Company, Emkay Research

Shareholding Pattern (%) Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21

Promoters 37.6 37.6 37.6 37.6 37.6

FIIs 15.6 15.9 17.2 17.5 17.5

DIIs 20.0 20.0 19.1 19.1 20.0

Public and Others 26.8 26.4 26.2 25.9 24.9

Source: Capitaline

Page 6: Gujarat State Petronet07Nov21

Gujarat State Petronet (GUJS IN) India Equity Research | Result Update

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore.

November 7, 2021 | 6

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY TABLE

Date Closing

Price TP

Period (months)

Rating Analyst

26-Jul-21 341 330 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

23-Jun-21 334 330 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

4-Jun-21 308 330 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

29-May-21 279 290 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

23-Apr-21 250 290 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

23-Mar-21 260 290 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

11-Feb-21 233 290 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

21-Jan-21 204 270 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

27-Nov-20 220 275 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

12-Nov-20 189 275 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

28-Sep-20 197 275 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

7-Aug-20 208 275 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

9-Jun-20 224 270 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

6-May-20 196 285 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

14-Feb-20 241 285 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

24-Jan-20 253 250 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

4-Dec-19 218 250 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

10-Nov-19 214 250 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

25-Oct-19 208 250 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

23-Sep-19 216 250 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

2-Aug-19 210 235 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

11-Jul-19 191 235 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

10-Jun-19 186 225 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

9-May-19 175 225 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

8-Feb-19 167 210 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

28-Jan-19 179 225 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

24-Jan-19 180 225 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

31-Dec-18 176 225 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

11-Dec-18 179 225 12m Buy Sabri Hazarika

Source: Company, Emkay Research

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY CHART

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Emkay Research

150

195

240

285

330

375

9-N

ov-1

8

9-M

ay-1

9

6-N

ov-1

9

5-M

ay-2

0

2-N

ov-2

0

2-M

ay-2

1

30

-Oct-

21

BUY Hold SellAccumulate Reduce PriceTarget Price

Page 7: Gujarat State Petronet07Nov21

Gujarat State Petronet (GUJS IN) India Equity Research | Result Update

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore.

November 7, 2021 | 7

Emkay Alpha Portfolio – Oil & Gas

EAP sector portfolio

Company Name BSE200 Weight

EAP Weight

OW/UW (%)

OW/UW (bps)

EAP Weight (Normalised)

Oil & Gas 10.09 10.06 0% -3 100.00

BPCL 0.40 0.42 4% 2 4.15

GAIL 0.26 0.29 10% 3 2.90

Gujarat Gas 0.11 0.09 -14% -1 0.90

Gujarat State Petronet 0.09 0.09 0% 0 0.88

Gulf Oil Lubricants 0.00 0.00 NA 0 0.00

HPCL 0.19 0.19 -1% 0 1.90

Indian Oil 0.33 0.35 8% 3 3.50

Indraprastha Gas 0.16 0.17 6% 1 1.70

Petronet LNG 0.17 0.18 9% 1 1.80

Oil India 0.08 0.07 -13% -1 0.65

ONGC 0.54 0.49 -8% -4 4.90

Reliance Industries 7.77 7.71 -1% -6 76.40

Cash 0.00 0.04 NA 4 0.38

Source: Emkay Research

* Not under coverage: Equal Weight

High Conviction/Strong Over Weight High Conviction/Strong Under Weight

Sector portfolio NAV

Base Latest

1-Apr-19 4-Nov-20 5-May-21 4-Aug-21 4-Oct-21 3-Nov-21

EAP - Oil & Gas 100.0 114.8 123.1 134.1 159.8 156.0

BSE200 Neutral Weighted Portfolio (ETF) 100.0 113.9 122.3 134.1 158.9 155.1*Performance measurement base date 1st April 2019

Source: Emkay Research

Price Performance (%)

1m 3m 6m 12m

EAP - Oil & Gas -2.4% 16.4% 26.7% 35.9%

BSE200 Neutral Weighted Portfolio (ETF) -2.4% 15.7% 26.8% 36.2%Source: Emkay Research

NAV chart

Source: Emkay Research

Please see our model portfolio (Emkay Alpha Portfolio): Nifty

Please see our model portfolio (Emkay Alpha Portfolio): SMID

“Emkay Alpha Portfolio – SMID and Nifty are a supporting document to the Emkay Alpha

Portfolios Report and is updated on regular intervals”

60

82

104

126

148

170

Apr-19 Jul-19 Nov-19 Mar-20 Jul-20 Nov-20 Mar-21 Jul-21 Nov-21

NAV

EAP - Oil & Gas BSE200 Neutral Weighted Portfolio (ETF)

Analyst: Sabri Hazarika

Contact Details

[email protected]

+91 22 6612 1282

Sector

Oil & Gas

Analyst bio

Sabri Hazarika holds an MBA and comes

with 12 years of research experience. His

team currently covers 12 stocks in the

Indian Oil & Gas space.

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Gujarat State Petronet (GUJS IN) India Equity Research | Result Update

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore.

November 7, 2021 | 8

Emkay Rating Distribution

Ratings Expected Return within the next 12-18 months.

BUY Over 15%

HOLD Between -5% to 15%

SELL Below -5%

Completed Date: 08 Nov 2021 01:32:20 (SGT) Dissemination Date: 08 Nov 2021 01:33:20 (SGT)

Sources for all charts and tables are Emkay Research unless otherwise specified.

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November 7, 2021 | 9

ANALYST CERTIFICATION BY EMKAY GLOBAL FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITED (EGFSL) The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst(s) also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. The research analyst (s) primarily responsible of the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that he or his associate1 does not serve as an officer, director or employee of the issuer or the new listing applicant (which includes in the case of a real estate investment trust, an officer of the management company of the real estate investment trust; and in the case of any other entity, an officer or its equivalent counterparty of the entity who is responsible for the management of the issuer or the new listing applicant). The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report or his associate does not have financial interests2 in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant that the analyst reviews. EGFSL has procedures in place to eliminate, avoid and manage any potential conflicts of interests that may arise in connection with the production of research reports. The research analyst(s) responsible for this report operates as part of a separate and independent team to the investment banking function of the EGFSL and procedures are in place to ensure that confidential information held by either the research or investment banking function is handled appropriately. There is no direct link of EGFSL compensation to any specific investment banking function of the EGFSL. 1 An associate is defined as (i) the spouse, or any minor child (natural or adopted) or minor step-child, of the analyst; (ii) the trustee of a trust of which the analyst, his spouse, minor child (natural or adopted) or minor step-child, is a beneficiary or discretionary object; or (iii) another person accustomed or obliged to act in accordance with the directions or instructions of the analyst. 2 Financial interest is defined as interest that are commonly known financial interest, such as investment in the securities in respect of an issuer or a new listing applicant, or financial accommodation arrangement between the issuer or the new listing applicant and the firm or analysis. This term does not include commercial lending conducted at the arm’s length, or investments in any collective investment scheme other than an issuer or new listing applicant notwithstanding the fact that the scheme has investments in securities in respect of an issuer or a new listing applicant.

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