gulf stream: structure and strategyl •cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over...

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Bermuda 1-2 2017 Gulf Stream: Structure and Strategy W. Frank Bohlen [email protected] 2017

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Page 1: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

Bermuda 1-2 2017

Gulf Stream: Structure and Strategy

W. Frank Bohlen

[email protected]

2017

Page 2: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

“Races are lost on the water”

Anon..

Page 3: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

Perpetual Ocean

https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/3827

The nature of the problem ….

Page 4: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

North Atlantic Gyre

Page 5: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions
Page 6: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

A boundary between cold shelf water and warm Sargasso Sea water

Page 7: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

Water Temperatures … IMPORTANT !!

Page 8: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

and Salinity Gradients !

Page 9: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

Daily composite Satellite Image – Northwest Atlantic Ocean

Showing Gulf Stream and Associated Features

Source: http://rucool.marine.rutgers.edu/

Gulf Stream

Main Body

Meander

Warm Core Ring

Page 10: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

From: Stommel, , The Gulf Stream , 1965

Typical Main Body Structure

Page 11: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions
Page 12: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions
Page 13: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

Migrates 10-20nm/day 150-300km diameter

Drift 0.1kt

Warm Core

Cold Core

Page 14: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions
Page 15: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

Sources of Information

Page 16: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions
Page 17: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions
Page 18: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions
Page 19: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions
Page 20: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

So… What do we see today ?

Page 21: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

CLOUDS !!

Page 22: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions
Page 23: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

Lesson: START ANALYSIS EARLY !!

Page 24: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

Using a Variety of Resources

• Scales of Variability

• Needed/Desired Accuracy

• Reception Limitations

• Sensory Overload

Keeping in mind…….

Page 25: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

http://rucool.marine.rutgers.edu

Page 26: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

http://rucool.marine.rutgers.edu

Page 27: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

Source: http://ecowatch.ncddc.noaa.gov/JAG/Navy/

Page 28: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gs/index.html

Page 29: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

Satellite Altimetry (Geodesy)

Page 30: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod/work/trinanes/INTERFACE/index.html

Page 31: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

http://rucool.marine.rutgers.edu

Page 32: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/global/

Page 33: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/global/monitor/

Page 34: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/global/monitor/

Page 35: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

Important !!!

THE GULF STREAM IS A WEATHER BREEDER

Page 36: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

L

• Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions. IMPORTANT !!

22oC

14oC

Page 37: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

Source: van Dorn 1993 Oceanography and Seamanship 2nd ed.

Winds against

the current

Winds with the

current

Ocean Wave Periods

T typical = 10 sec

Vc = ~ 5kts

Page 38: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

https://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep/NCEP

Preparation might include review of previous race conditions…

Page 39: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

Summary

• North Atlantic winds drive a clockwise circulation

in which the Gulf Stream forms the western boundary

• The Gulf Stream is a prominent thermal boundary,

narrow in width, variable in space and time

• The main body of the Stream in the vicinity of the

Newport-Bermuda Rhumb Line is often accompanied

by a number of rings shed north and south of it

• Warm air rising from the Stream and its rings can

significantly affect local weather

• The development of optimum strategies for crossing

the Gulf Stream requires study over several months

incorporating direct observations and models

Page 40: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions

• For me the place to start would be Instantaneous satellite

images moving, if necessary, to composites (1-7 day)

• Determine the basic structure and location of the Gulf Stream

i.e. presence of meanders, rings, etc. and rates of evolution

• Compare satellite imagery to altimetry based model and, if

necessary RTOFS or other computer models.

• Evaluate probable sea state conditions existing and forecast

• Develop routing plan on the morning of the Race Start and

print out latest satellite and/or altimetry (remember delays)

along with key weather forecasts

ENJOY !!

Page 41: Gulf Stream: Structure and StrategyL •Cold air outbreaks drive extremely active convection over the region of the Gulf Stream. The same will be true anywhere we have similar conditions