gwinnett unified plan presentation to: georgia planning association october 2, 2008
TRANSCRIPT
Gwinnett Unified PlanPresentation to:
Georgia Planning Association
October 2, 2008
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What Dooms Most Comprehensive Plans to Failure?Many, if not most plans treat land use and
transportation separatelyMost are based on a community vision that is
possible, but not plausibleThere is seldom, if ever, a validation of the plan
against the future economic potential of the community
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How is Gwinnett’s Unified Plan Different?Combines the Comprehensive Plan,
Comprehensive Transportation Plan, and the (HUD) Consolidated Plan into one planning effort.
Uses a Scenario-based approach to create possible futures, instead of a future vision based on the desires of a select group of people
Forecasts land use based on market realitiesTests the plausibility and fiscal impact of each
Scenario using economic modeling
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What Is a Scenario?A plausible Future that results from a series of
Driving Forces and Assumptions about how Current Trends may vary in the future
Obviously, there can be an infinite number of Scenarios or plausible Futures
We chose three:o The Regional Economy Will Declineo The Regional Economy Will Continue as It Haso The Regional Economy Will Improve
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Regional Slowdown Scenario
Region’s growth slows Gwinnett gains only 30% more
people & 27% more jobs More transient population – fewer
long-term residents Average income growth slows Limited neighborhood reinvestment
An Unacceptable Outcome
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Middle of the Pack Scenario
Region continues to prosper; current trends continue, but
County average income declines Offers little relief from congestion No resources to address
redevelopment Gwinnett gains 47% more people
& 53% more jobs Entire County on public sewer Truly diverse community, no
dominant majority Fairly low density development
Most Likely Future without Intervention - So plan for it also!
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International Gateway Scenario US economy strong; Region has
massive job growth Gwinnett gains 76% more people &
106% more jobs Expand transit options International/multicultural segments
of workforce grow High rises at key nodes & mixed-use
development along major roads Redevelopment of older areas
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Unified Plan is Based on Rigorous Economic and Fiscal ModelingTo project expansion of County Land use under
varying economic conditions, and To determine the impact of the Plan on the Tax
Digest
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Beyond ConsultantsKey Staff Members Included:Glenn Stephens, Director, Planning and DevelopmentBryan Lackey, Deputy DirectorSteven A. Logan, AICP, Director of PlanningNancy Lovingood, AICP, Manager of Long-Range
PlanningPatrick Quinn, Manager of Planning Data ServicesJeff West, Manger of Current PlanningJames Pugsley, Planner IIIDavid Gill, Planner IIIRebecca Peed, Planner II
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Technical Advisory Committee A Technical Advisory Committee (TAC)
Comprised of:o Impacted County Departments,o Medical Community,o Municipal Representatives,o School System, ando Economic Development Director
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Background Trends and Assumptions Include:
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Continued but slower growth…
Incomes Continue their Trend
Households in Each Regional Quintile as a Percent of Total Households
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…and Gwinnett will continue to diversifyPercent Distribution of Population by Ethnic/Racial Group
Ethnic/Racial information required by HUD for Consolidated Plan submission
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Assumptions of the ModelFire, Police, and general gov’t expenditures
directly affected by constituent wealth. Service demand within specific land use type
varies across Gwinnett, but constant across time.
Persons/household same for each resid’l land use type and same across unincorp. Gwinnett.
Income distributions differ across Gwinnett.Revenue contributions differ by land use type.
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Management Costs and Revenue Allocations
Focus is on contribution of revenuesand expenditures by land use
ResidentialCommercial
IndustrialFarm
Forest
Total Expenditures 72% 27% 1.4%
Total Revenue 65% 34% 0.8%
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Comparison Outcomes (without interventions)WebFit Model Slowdown Scenario
o Surplus in 2030$9 million2% of revenues
Middle Scenario o Deficit in 2030
$7 million0.7% of revenues
Gateway Scenarioo Deficit in 2030
$44 million4.6% of revenues
Enhanced ModelSlowdown Scenario
o Deficit in 2030$358 - $532 million43.7% - 64.9% of revenues
Middle Scenario o Deficit in 2030
$111 - $192 million12% - 21% of revenues
Gateway Scenarioo Deficit in 2030
$63 - $81 million6.5% - 8% of revenues
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Enhanced Fiscal ModelBuilds on the existing WebFIT modelDoes not consider capital income or costsAdjusts for level of police and fire services
o Based on supporting evidence and interviews Adjust “poverty” spending
o Poverty spending includesPublic healthPublic welfare & social servicesCommunity development
.-,85
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State Route 316
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Gwinnett Study Areas
Includes increased costs of non-poverty spending such as police services, fire services, and general government
Weighted for service need in sub-county areas (Sub-county areas used for analysis only-not used in intervention recommendations)
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Beyond EconomicsTransportation ModelingWater and Sewer Modeling
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Sewer Impacts-Change in FlowFrom 2003 Master Plan
Regional Slowdown
Middle of the Pack
International Gateway
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Intervention Development and Testing (slide 1)Creation of the Planning Advisory Committee
(PAC)o 25 Individuals chosen
to represent various interest groups in the County to represent ethnic diversity of the County
PAC developed interventions or policies to address the various dynamics presented by the Scenarios
Economic/Fiscal and Land Use Models were then calibrated to account for the Interventions
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Intervention Development and Testing Focus Groups were used to test the
Interventions among various ethnic groups (Hispanic, Korean, Viet Namese, and African-American)
Public Information Meetings (PIMs) were held to solicit feed-back from the general public.
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Major Themes of the Unified PlanMaintain Economic Development and Fiscal
HealthFoster RedevelopmentMaintain Mobility and AccessibilityProvide More Housing ChoiceKeep Gwinnett a “Preferred Place”
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Maintain Economic Development and Fiscal Health
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Maintain Economic Development and Fiscal HealthPromote Major Mixed-Use DevelopmentsProtect Large, Well-Located Parcels/Areas for OfficeStrategic Placement of SewerRevise Current Millage RatesPromote University Parkway as R & D CorridorEmploy Debt Financing of Major InfrastructureObtain Appropriate Balance of Retail (TDR shown on Housing Map)
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Foster Redevelopment
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Foster RedevelopmentInstitute a Variety of Redevelopment IncentivesPromote Densification in Specific AreasUse Tax Allocation Districts (TADs)Promoted Shared Infrastructure FacilitiesAllow “corner stores” within specified Med/High
Density Areas
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Maintain Mobility and Accessibility
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Maintain Mobility and AccessibilityEnhance Signal Coordination and Intelligent Transportation
Systems (ITS)Manage Access on ArterialsEnhance Incident Management (Traffic Control Center)Establish Road Connectivity RequirementCreate Transit-Oriented Development at Appropriate SitesEstablish a More Extensive Transit SystemPursue Strategic Road Widening and New Alignments
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Provide More Housing Choice
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Provide More Housing ChoiceEstablish and Provide Access to More Executive
HousingPreserve Existing Workforce HousingExpand Maintenance and Rehabilitation
Assistance to Homeowners and Small Businesses
Use Transfer of Development Rights (TDR)
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Keep Gwinnett a “Preferred Place”
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Keep Gwinnett a “Preferred Place” Improve the Walkability of Gwinnett’s Activity Centers and
Neighborhoods Support and Promote the Expanded Four Year College Invest in After School Programs Enhance Development Aesthetics Provide Venues to Celebrate Growing Cultural Diversity of the
County Expand Presence of “Arts Community” Provide Incentives for Enhanced Openspace/Trails Use Development Regulations to Create Local Parks Acquire Surplus Industrial or Commercial Sites for Open
Space/Recreation
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Composite Map
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Next Steps
Held public information meetings at 4 sites around county in August.
Final Meeting with PAC was held September 18, 2008PB Revised Draft and Submitted Final Draft
(September ’08)Present Final Draft to Board of Commissioners
(October 7, 2008)Public Hearings (November ’08)