HÁ LIMITES PARA O CRESCIMENTO DO SETOR ...secovi.com.br/files/Downloads/see-lianpdf.pdfHÁ LIMITES PARA O CRESCIMENTO DO SETOR IMOBILIÁRIO? Correspondendo às mudanças: O mercado
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HÁ LIMITES PARA O CRESCIMENTO DO SETOR IMOBILIÁRIO? Correspondendo às mudanças: O mercado imobiliário e a importância de networking entre profissionais See Lian Ong (FRICS) President, RICS
HÁ LIMITES PARA O CRESCIMENTODO SETOR IMOBILIÁRIO?
Correspondendo às mudanças: O mercado imobiliário e a importância de networking entre profissionais
See Lian Ong (FRICS) President, RICS
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Introduction: who am I; what is the RICS; why am I here today? RICS is… a professional body established in London in 1868 Royal Charter to promote professionalism and public interest now an international standard setter across all aspects of the land, property and built environment members are involved in the entire property lifecycle RICS members carry the MRICS/FRICS initials in their title in recognition of their professional competence Why am I here in Sao Paulo… RICS is now established across Europe, Asia, Oceania, North America and has members working in 146 countries worldwide. In 1998 the Institution embarked on a programme of international development, driven in the main by a demand for professional standards in markets around the world. Brazil is fast becoming a driving force in the international property markets with significant inward investment in property and infrastructure leading to a high demand for professional workers Following the successful launch of our Mexico office earlier this year we are now establishing a presence here in Sao Paulo In addition to launching our Brazil chapter this week, this this is also an opportunity for me to meet property professionals working in Brazil and to improve my understanding of the key issues for the market Today I would like to share with you my thoughts on current market trends and the important role that an international professional network provides in driving a vibrant property sector.
HÁ LIMITES PARA O CRESCIMENTODO SETOR IMOBILIÁRIO?
Por que a profissão no setor imobiliário é importante para a sociedade?
• Habitação e casa para a indústria e o comércio
• Riqueza para os investidores e ocupantes
• Cerca de 70% da riqueza global
• Construção utiliza aproximadamente 60% de todos os materiais utilizados
• 60% da energia utilizada no aquecimento e manutenção de edifícios
• Edifícios emitem cerca de 40% das emissões de carbono
• Emprega cerca de 10% dos trabalhadores
Presenter
Presentation Notes
[Aim here is to show that property underlies most human activity and therefore a vibrant property market is essential] Property is inextricably linked to our political, social and economic welfare; from the homes we live in to the offices in which we work. Property is a challenge as well as an asset – it is not always well understood Can be hugely rewarding to those who do understand its economic, social and environmental challenges – very damaging if not Consider some of these facts…… (as per slide) Habitation and a home for industry and commerce Store of wealth for investors and occupiers Roughly 70% of global wealth is represented in property Construction uses approximately 60% of all utilised materials 60% of energy used on heating and servicing buildings Buildings emit about 40% of carbon emissions employs around 10% of the global workforce (with significantly more than 10% of domestic workforces in rapidly growing economies around the world).
HÁ LIMITES PARA O CRESCIMENTODO SETOR IMOBILIÁRIO?
Estamos vivendo em uma época de desafios
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Property land and construction standards have become all the more important due to the many challenges facing us today (environmental, economic or social) In a minute I would like to consider some of the key driving forces which are shaping both the real estate world and the wider world around us Before that, though, lets look at the current economic context which underpins real estate.
HÁ LIMITES PARA O CRESCIMENTODO SETOR IMOBILIÁRIO?
Um peru é alimentado durante 1.000 dias, e cada alimentação firma a convicção da ave que esta é a regra geral da vida ser alimentado todos os dias pelos amigáveis seres humanos. No dia antes do Natal algo inesperado acontecerá ao peru. Ele incorrerá uma revisão de crença. "
Life
Wel
lbei
ng
1 2 3 … 999
Como chegamos aqui?
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Presenter
Presentation Notes
It is fair to say that we find ourselves, today, in a rapidly changing and very uncertain global economic situation Real estate has and will continue to play a central role in the relative health of the global economy For many years in the run up to the global financial crisis of 2007, the markets, buoyed by strong growth figures and easy access to investment, flourished. Risk-taking became a feature of investor behaviour. “boom and bust” In the aftermath of the credit crisis the picture changed dramatically.
HÁ LIMITES PARA O CRESCIMENTODO SETOR IMOBILIÁRIO?
• Baixo x superfaturamento de risco
• Avidez x medo
• Fácil acesso a cheap credit x credit crunch
• Confiança x Incerteza
... mas será que vai ficar como está?
O pêndulo está balançado para o outro lado ...
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Several years down the line and the situation is no more stable. Uncertainty is increasing and many of the trends which were apparent in the run up to 2007 have reversed to the opposite end of the spectrum. The pendulum has swung back the other way. Now witnessing overpricing of assets; a fear culture across market and a slowdown in capital investment
HÁ LIMITES PARA O CRESCIMENTODO SETOR IMOBILIÁRIO?
• Preocupações sobre as perspectivas económicas mundiais persistem
• As taxas de juros estão subindo, a perspectiva do consumidor continua misturado
• O volume de transações imobiliárias continua dominado por escritórios e negócios, principalmente no mercado privilegiado
... a incerteza permanece
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Whilst uncertainty remains, there continues to be significant differences between growth prospects in more developed parts of the world and those deemed to be “emerging economies”. At a time when investors and developers are looking to higher-growth, less-risky opportunities, the BRIC nations continue to stand head and shoulders about the rest…
HÁ LIMITES PARA O CRESCIMENTODO SETOR IMOBILIÁRIO?
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Let’s look at the macro economic picture… Significantly, trends which have been emerging over the last decade continue to highlight regional differences in economic outlook. BRICS nations continue to show strong growth in the face of global economic volatility. GDP in countries such as Japan, the UK, Germany and the US has remained largely flat since 2006, whilst China, Russia, India and Brazil have continued to grow at a robust rate over recent years. Despite uncertainties, 2012 projections indicate that this trend will continue.
HÁ LIMITES PARA O CRESCIMENTODO SETOR IMOBILIÁRIO?
Presenter
Presentation Notes
As GDP has continued to grow in the BRIC economies, so unemployment has gone down. Conversely, higher unemployment across the EU and US has exacerbated poor growth rates.
HÁ LIMITES PARA O CRESCIMENTODO SETOR IMOBILIÁRIO?
Presenter
Presentation Notes
It is therefore no surprise that with increasing employment and foreign investment, countries such as Brazil, China and Hong Kong have seen a higher demand from occupiers for office space.
HÁ LIMITES PARA O CRESCIMENTODO SETOR IMOBILIÁRIO?
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Commercial property transactions since 2007 help to highlight two important points. Firstly, it demonstrates just how closely interlinked real estate and the global economy are. Here you can see three clear phases aligned to pre credit crisis (2007); economic downturn (2008/09) and the recovery (2010/11) Secondly it reiterates the strength of the BRIC nations in the aftermath of the economic downturn as investors seek safer long-term prospects in the fast developing markets. Here China can be seen to be lead increased transaction volumes in the AsiaPacific region.
HÁ LIMITES PARA O CRESCIMENTODO SETOR IMOBILIÁRIO?
Média anual do crescimento de despesas em construção 2008‐2011 (%)
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Looking outside the world of commercial real estate, construction can be seen as a barometer of growth and potential for investors. Global Construction today is estimated at $7.5 trillion market accounting for 13.4% of world output. By 2020, construction output will have grown by 70% to $12.7 trillion and will account for 14.6% of world outputs larger emerging markets such as China, India, Russia and Brazil driving growth, along with the US. South America, Russia, China and India have shown significant increases in construction spending between 2008-2011.
HÁ LIMITES PARA O CRESCIMENTODO SETOR IMOBILIÁRIO?
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Developed world
Emerging world
$bn, 2008 prices
Source: OEF
Total construction output------------------------------INDEPENDENT FORECAST-------------------------
Notes. Emerging: Eastern Europe, South & Central America, Asia Pacific ('emerging'), Middle East & AfricaDeveloped: Western Europe, North America, Asia Pacific ('developed')
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Presentation Notes
Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF)
HÁ LIMITES PARA O CRESCIMENTODO SETOR IMOBILIÁRIO?
Fatores que influenciam as profissões dos setores de real estate e construção
But putting the current economic context to one side: what are the global trends which are contributing to and shaping the changing world around us? Globalisation There is increasing unification of the world's economic order with the removal of barriers to international trade. The Top 500 multinational corporations account for nearly 70 percent of the worldwide trade Scarcity and Resource if everyone on the planet consumed as much as a typical individual living in the Western World we'd need three planets to support us. Technological The internet has changed the way we work and the way we interact with one another. It has created a virtual environment which has revolutionised the way businesses are run and the ability to share data instantaneously. New technologies such as GIS has enabled surveyors from across the land, property and built environment sectors to become more efficient in their work; enhancing their ability to bring professional expertise to play Old business models are undermined by technology – need to reinvent role of professional adviser Skills It is estimated that the amount of new technical information is doubling every 2 years. It is estimated that more new information will be generated this year than the previous 5000 years put together For a student studying a 4 year technical course at university, half of what they learn in their first year will be outdated by their third year of study. It is predicted that India would suffer a shortfall of over half the skilled human resources needed to modernise the economy’s roads, water, power and housing sectors in the coming years (FT) 6,499 skilled workers and professionals are currently working for contractors on the Olympic Park in London ahead of next years Games. Demographic The world’s population went from about 1.6 billion in 1900 to about 2.5 in 1950, to about 6.1 billion in 2000. It is now (2010) approaching 7 billion. Each year population growth in the major developed countries is around 1.2 million; in the developing parts of the world (for example India, China and Africa) that figure is 79 million per year. Challenges: Uncertainty; Complex regulation; Local vs. global Opportunities: Expansion; Demand for skills; Sophisticated service provision
HÁ LIMITES PARA O CRESCIMENTODO SETOR IMOBILIÁRIO?
O Ciclo de Vida do Setor de Propriedades
ConhecimentoNormas e padrôes
Network
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Factors impact on all aspects of the property lifecycle Often we respond to them within the parameters of our own working environments Need to look at the property lifecycle more holistically if we are to effectively respond to the challenges and take the opportunities presented. We can benefit from shared knowledge; internationally recognised standards and a network of professionals worldwide.
HÁ LIMITES PARA O CRESCIMENTODO SETOR IMOBILIÁRIO?
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1 ‐ Europa (ex UK) 10,146 2 – Reino Unido 115,3843 ‐ Oriente Médio & Àfrica 10,932 4 ‐ Americas 3,657 5 ‐ Oceânia 6,211 6 ‐ Asia 14,275
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Network Global de Profissionais
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Responding with agility and a strong, unified voice By standing together we have a strong collective voice…. RICS as an international network of property professionals working across the lifecycle of property 160,000 members and trainees working in 146 countries worldwide. International standards and self-regulation of members and firms Recognised by governments and industry as the gold standard for professionals
HÁ LIMITES PARA O CRESCIMENTODO SETOR IMOBILIÁRIO?
