h1 2017...north east 14.8% yorks. & the humber 14.5% (york=8.2%) east midlands 12.1% greater london...

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@LocalDataCo #LDCInsights Retail & Leisure Trends H1 2017 Kindly hosted by York BID 21 st November, 2017 @LocalDataCo #LDCInsights Matthew Hopkinson, LDC [email protected] Tel: 020 3111 4393 Mobile: 07799 772258 #YBW2017 #YorkBizWeek2017

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  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights Retail & Leisure Trends

    H1 2017

    Kindly hosted by York BID

    21st November, 2017

    @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights

    Matthew Hopkinson, LDC

    [email protected]

    Tel: 020 3111 4393

    Mobile: 07799 772258

    #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

    mailto:[email protected]

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights

    Introduction

    What we do and why we do it

    York and key zones – occupancy and footfall profiles The GB retail environment

    What’s happened in 2017? Openings and closures

    Vacancy

    Changing trends in location health

    Predictions

    Agenda

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights

    We create location data to help businesses keep track

    of the fast changing

    retail and leisure marketplace.

  • 2003

    550,000 shops

    tracked

    700 Footfall

    sensors

    Founded in

    2003

    Update cycle

    6-12 months Field Research

    (68,000 updates/month)

    Data Occupiers Investors Councils BIDs SEO Media

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights

    To identify the most

    profitable locations

    To inform on

    opportunities and

    threats

    To quantify market

    trends

    ! £

    Why we exist? #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights

    Field Research Office Research Online Insights Interpretation

    How we do it? #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights York CLG Area #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights York BID boundary #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights Gillygate #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights Footfall Heatmap #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights Footfall Profile – Coney Street #YBW2017 #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights Footfall Profile – Pavement #YBW2017 #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights York CLG Area – Occupancy #YBW2017 #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights York CLG Area - Vacancy #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights H1 2017: The GB context

    Retail

    +4.4% Since 2016

    77% of adults bought products and

    services online

    #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights An overview on Retail

    Comparison Goods

    Retail (non-food) - only

    category in decline

    The North West

    saw biggest

    increase in

    occupied shops

    #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights

    3.955 3.752

    4.102

    3.561

    2.890

    2.533

    3.539 3.271

    3.716 3.472

    2.907 2.813

    417 482 385

    90 -17 -280

    -500

    0

    500

    1.000

    1.500

    2.000

    2.500

    3.000

    3.500

    4.000

    4.500

    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

    Month

    Openings Closures Net

    Openings & Closures of retail & leisure units by month, H1 2017

    Openings & Closures #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights

    H1 2016

    -1,997 H1 2017

    103

    Net Openings & Closures of retail & leisure units, H1 2016 vs. H1 2017

    Openings & Closures #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights

    4.413 4.258 4.326

    3.814

    3.417

    3.015

    3.409

    4.191

    4.607

    4.608 4.439

    4.026 3.955

    3.752

    4.102

    3.561

    2.890

    2.533

    4.486 4.341

    4.585

    4.186 3.853

    3.433

    3.979

    4.500 4.683

    4.375 4.344

    3.867 3.539

    3.271

    3.716

    3.472

    2.907 2.813

    -73 -83 -259 -371 -436 -418 -570

    -308 -76

    232 95 159 417 482 385

    90 -17 -280

    -1.000

    0

    1.000

    2.000

    3.000

    4.000

    5.000

    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

    2016 2017

    Openings Closures Net change

    Openings & Closures of retail & leisure units, Jan 16 - Jun 17

    Openings & Closures #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights Net Openings & Closures Retail and leisure units across GB, by quarter, 2012-2017

    -600

    -400

    -200

    0

    200

    400

    600N

    et O

    pen

    ing

    s/C

    losure

    s

    #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights

    81

    105

    11

    -94

    103

    -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150

    High Streets

    Retail Parks

    Shopping Centres

    Standalone

    Balance

    Number of units

    Net Openings & Closures by location type, H1 2017

    #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights Net Openings & Closures

    308

    1.592

    389

    -1.319

    970

    -1.500 -1.000 -500 0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000

    High Street

    Retail Park

    Shopping Centre

    Standalone

    Total

    Number of units

    by location type, H1 2013 – H1 2017

    #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights Distribution of stores by location type H1 2017

    High Streets Retail Parks Shopping Centres Standalone

    50.5% 2.5% 6.8% 40.2%

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights

    Comparison Convenience Leisure Service

    Closures Openings

    Net Openings & Closures by classification, H1 2017

    Total

    Num

    ber

    of

    units

    Net change

    6,814 7,479

    -665

    18

    2,575 2,557

    5,294 4,861

    433

    5,530 5,213

    317

    20,213 20,110

    103

    #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights What’s new? Top 5 openings of stores by classification type

    Convenience Comparison

    Leisure Service

    #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights What’s new? Top 5 openings of stores by classification type

    Top 5 closures of stores by classification type

    Convenience Comparison

    Leisure Service

    #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights Top 10 Multiples: Retail and Leisure By net growth in number of stores across GB, H1 2016 – H1 2017

    Leisure

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights Top 10 Multiples: Retail and Leisure By net growth in number of stores across GB, H1 2016 – H1 2017

    Leisure

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights

    Classification Category Count:Nov-17 Opened(Nov-16-Nov-17) Closed(Nov-16-Nov-17) NetChange %NetChange

    Comparison ElectricalGoods&HomeEntertainment 28 2 4 -2 -6.7

    Comparison Furniture,Carpets,Textiles,Bathrooms&Kitchens 25 3 5 -2 -7.4

    Leisure Accommodation 31 2 4 -2 -6.1

    Leisure Bars,Pubs&Clubs 108 6 8 -2 -1.8

    Service Employment&PostOffices 14 0 2 -2 -12.5

    Comparison Fashion&GeneralClothing 99 6 9 -3 -2.9

    Convenience Confectionery,Tobacco,Newsagents 22 4 8 -4 -15.4

    Comparison Gifts,China&LeatherGoods 35 7 12 -5 -12.5

    Comparison Sports,Toys,CycleShops&Hobbies 34 5 11 -6 -15

    Y

    York BID: Top & Bottom Categories By net growth in number of stores November 2016-2017

    Classification Category Count:Nov-17 Opened(Nov-16-Nov-17) Closed(Nov-16-Nov-17) NetChange %NetChange

    Leisure Restaurants 120 17 11 6 5.3

    Comparison Books,Arts&Crafts,Stationery,Printers 55 6 4 2 3.8

    Comparison DIY,Hardware,Builder'sMerchants&HouseholdGoods 8 2 0 2 33.3

    Convenience Bakers 17 2 0 2 13.3

    Service Hairdressing,Health&Beauty 112 7 5 2 1.8

    Comparison Jewellers,Clocks&Watches 40 3 2 1 2.6

    Convenience Butchers&Fishmongers 4 1 0 1 33.3

    Service Banks,FinancialServices&BuildingSocieties 21 1 0 1 5

    Service Locksmiths,ClothingAlterations&ShoeRepairs 10 1 0 1 11.1

    ClassificationChangeYorkBID

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights Top 20 towns For net gain in numbers of occupied stores across GB

    #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights Top 20 towns For net loss in numbers of occupied stores across GB

    #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights

    11,2 11,2 11,2 11,2 11,2

    11,1

    11,0

    10,9 10,9 10,9

    11,0 11,0

    10,8

    10,9

    11,0

    11,1

    11,2

    11,3

    11,4

    Jul Sep Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

    Vacancy R

    ate

    (%

    )

    2016 2017

    Retail and Leisure vacancy rate H1 2016 – H1 2017

    #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights Vacancy – the long way back

    0,0

    2,0

    4,0

    6,0

    8,0

    10,0

    12,0

    14,0

    16,0

    2008-1

    2

    2009-0

    2

    2009-0

    4

    2009-0

    6

    2009-0

    8

    2009-1

    0

    2009-1

    2

    2010-0

    2

    2010-0

    4

    2010-0

    6

    2010-0

    8

    2010-1

    0

    2010-1

    2

    2011-0

    2

    2011-0

    4

    2011-0

    6

    2011-0

    8

    2011-1

    0

    2011-1

    2

    2012-0

    2

    2012-0

    4

    2012-0

    6

    2012-0

    8

    2012-1

    0

    2012-1

    2

    2013-0

    2

    2013-0

    4

    2013-0

    6

    2013-0

    8

    2013-1

    0

    2013-1

    2

    2014-0

    2

    2014-0

    4

    2014-0

    6

    2014-0

    8

    2014-1

    0

    2014-1

    2

    2015-0

    2

    2015-0

    4

    2015-0

    6

    2015-0

    8

    2015-1

    0

    2015-1

    2

    2016-0

    2

    2016-0

    4

    2016-0

    6

    2016-0

    8

    2016-1

    0

    2016-1

    2

    2017-0

    2

    2017-0

    4

    2017-0

    6

    Vacancy R

    ate

    (%

    )

    GB shop vacancy rates 2008 - H1 2017 (%)

    #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights GB Retail and Leisure vacancy rate By location type H1 2017

    5.1% 11.0% 12.6%

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights Persistent Retail and Leisure vacancy rates Across location types, H1 2017

    4,6%

    3,7%

    1,9%

    2,6%

    2,2%

    1,1%

    1,6%

    1,2%

    0,5%

    0,9%

    0,7%

    0,5%

    0,8%

    0,6%

    0,4%

    2,4%

    2,2%

    0,8%

    0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

    Shopping Centres (36,800 units)

    Town Centres (274,115 units)

    Retail Parks (11,165 units)

    Vacancy (%)

    Loca

    tion

    typ

    e < 1 year

    1-2 years

    2-3 years

    3-4 years

    4-5 years

    > 5 years

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights Retail and Leisure vacancy rates By town centre size, H1 2017

    5.6%

    10.7%

    12.1%

    Small

    Centres

    Medium

    Centres

    Large

    Centres

    #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights Retail and Leisure vacancy rates By nation in GB, H1 2017

    England 11.1%

    Scotland 11.9%

    Wales 14.5%

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights

    11,1%

    11,9%

    14,5%

    5,1%

    6,7%

    5,9%

    12,3%

    15,1%

    12,2%

    0,0%

    2,0%

    4,0%

    6,0%

    8,0%

    10,0%

    12,0%

    14,0%

    16,0%

    England Scotland Wales

    Vacancy

    (%)

    Nation

    Town centres Retail parks Shopping centres

    Retail and Leisure vacancy rates By nation and location type, H1 2017

    #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • North East 14.8%

    Yorks. & the Humber 14.5% (York=8.2%)

    East Midlands 12.1%

    Greater London 7.5%

    South East 9.9%

    South West 10.1%

    West Midlands

    14.2%

    North West 15.1%

    East Anglia 10.0%

    Retail and Leisure vacancy rates By region of England, H1 2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights Persistent Retail and Leisure vacancy rates

    3,9 4,1 4,2 4,4 4,3 3,5 3,6 3,8 3,7 3,4 3,5

    2,8 2,4 2,5 2,6 2,6

    2,8 2,2 2,3 1,9 1,8 1,6

    1,7 1,5

    1,7 1,5 1,3 1,5

    1,4 1,3 1,1

    1,1 0,8

    1,1 1,2

    1,0 0,8 0,9 0,8

    0,9 0,6 0,7

    0,6 0,4

    1,1 0,9 0,7 0,6 0,7

    0,9 0,7 0,5

    0,5 0,6

    0,3

    3,5 3,5 3,0

    2,6 2,7 3,0

    2,4

    1,5 1,7

    1,7

    1,0

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    North West(37,478units)

    North East(12,588units)

    WestMidlands(27,151units)

    Scotland(15,711units)

    Yorkshireand theHumber(26,318units)

    Wales(14,336units)

    EastMidlands(20,880units)

    South West(30,500units)

    East OfEngland(27,773units)

    South East(46,735units)

    GreaterLondon(62,610units)

    Vacancy (

    %)

    Nations and regions

    > 5 years4-5 years3-4 years2-3 years1-2 years< 1 year

    Across location types, H1 2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights Top 10 best performing retail centres For Retail and Leisure vacancy across GB, H1 2017

    (York ranks 338th out of 650 towns)

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights Top 10 best performing retail centres For Retail and Leisure vacancy across GB, H1 2017

    (York ranks 338th out of 650 towns)

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights Top 10 worst performing retail centres For Retail and Leisure vacancy across GB, H1 2017

    (York ranks 338th out of 650 towns)

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights Top 10 worst performing retail centres For Retail and Leisure vacancy across GB, H1 2017

    (York ranks 338th out of 650 towns)

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights Location health – what is the health index? 12 variables

    £

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights York Health Index #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights LDC Health Index average scores Across five location types H1 2015 – H1 2017

    5,3

    1,9

    15,4

    4,1

    2,1

    4,8

    1,8

    14,8

    4,1

    2,1

    4,5

    1,8

    14,4

    3,7

    2,1

    0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 16,0 18,0

    Shopping centres

    Retail parks

    Large towns

    Medium towns

    Small towns

    Average score per year

    H1 2015

    H1 2016

    H1 2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights Top 10 large centres By rise in LDC Health Index score H1 2016 – H1 2017

    6

    6

    7

    7

    8

    8

    8

    10

    13

    15

    0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

    Leeds

    Victoria (London)

    Truro

    Oxford

    Barnstaple

    Kingston-upon-Thames

    Knightsbridge

    Ipswich

    Edinburgh

    Chelmsford

    Rise in LDC Health score (points)

    #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights Top 10 large centres By fall in LDC Health Index score H1 2016 – H1 2017

    -5

    -5

    -5

    -6

    -7

    -8

    -8

    -9

    -10

    -10

    -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0

    Coventry

    Croydon

    Barnsley

    West London

    Swindon

    Bradford

    Lincoln

    Leicester

    Bath

    West End, London

    Fall in LDC Health score (points)

    #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights Top 10 medium centres By rise in LDC Health Index score H1 2016 – H1 2017

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    7

    9

    10

    0 2 4 6 8 10 12

    Albany Road, Cardiff

    Carmarthen

    Chatham

    Ripley

    Spalding

    Stourbridge

    Winchester

    Hereford

    Newmarket

    Altrincham

    Rise in LDC Health score (points)

    #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights Top 10 medium centres By fall in LDC Health Index score H1 2016 – H1 2017

    -5

    -5

    -5

    -5

    -5

    -5

    -6

    -6

    -6

    -6

    -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0

    Acton

    Kendal

    Long Eaton

    Petersfield

    Ripon

    Wilmslow

    Cleveleys

    Finsbury Park

    Holloway Road

    Lymington

    Fall in Health Index score (points)

    #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights So what for occupiers?

    Footfall Digital presence Retailing still takes place

    in physical stores

    #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights So what for investors?

    Rental values Specialisation

    In certain locations

    Competitor analysis

    can reveal growth

    #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights So what for government?

    Take temperature of

    retail centres

    Footfall & Spend

    vs.

    Openings vs.

    Closures

    #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights Predictions

    F&B

    Bubble? Rise of mega

    malls & cities

    Acceleration of mixed

    used destinations

    Increased

    trading volatility

    Rise of entertainment

    destinations

    Consumer

    polarisation

    #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights York versus selected Benchmarks #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017

  • @LocalDataCo

    #LDCInsights

    Thank you for listening

    www.localdatacompany.com

    @LocalDataCo

    #YBW2017

    #YorkBizWeek2017