hail suppression in greece

George N. Farazoulis ELGA/GREECE

Weather Modification Activities

in Greece

George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE

Greece

EUROPE


In Greece the only institute which is involved with

weather mod activity is ELGA

ELGA=Hellenic Agricultural ELGA=Hellenic Agricultural Insurance OrganizationInsurance Organization


ELGA is the main public carrier

of insurance coverage in agricultural exploitation

in Greece which is supervised

by the Greek Ministry of

Rural Development and Food.


The insurance that ELGA provides

is compulsory and protects

the agricultural production and

the livestock of the country.


ELGA’sELGA’sMain Target ActivitiesMain Target Activities

1. Crop Insurance1. Crop Insurance( Against specific perils ( Against specific perils

i.e. frost , hail , flood etc) i.e. frost , hail , flood etc) MPCI systemMPCI system

2. Loss Prevention2. Loss Prevention


Loss PreventionLoss Prevention

Aims to prevent or to suppress

the Insured and

the not-Insured Risks


Loss PreventionLoss Preventionactivityactivity

1.Application of experimental1.Application of experimental--operational projectsoperational projects

2.Subsidization of protection’s 2.Subsidization of protection’s means means TheThe whole procedure is promoting straight to the insured farmer. whole procedure is promoting straight to the insured farmer.

Main Main Covered RisksCovered Risks : : FrostFrost ++ HailHailFuture interested Risk : Future interested Risk : Flood , WindFlood , Wind


Operational projectsOperational projects

Frost Frost Fog systemFog system

HailHail 1. 1. Airborne cloud seedingAirborne cloud seeding

2. 2. Hail CanonsHail Canons


Subsidization of protection’s means

Frost Frost Wind machineWind machine

Hail Hail Hail netsHail nets


Loss Prevention’s Site Map


HAIL Protection with

airborne seeding3 Piper Cheyenne II 3 Piper Cheyenne II Seeding agent :Seeding agent :AgIAgIFlares 20gr and 70grFlares 20gr and 70grTotal Protected Area Total Protected Area :5000km:5000km²²Cultivation : FruitsCultivation : Fruits


OPERATIONAL AREAS


A1 Central Macedonia


Area: Α1

Naoussa

Edessa

Veria

Gianitsa

CULTIVATIONS:

Fruits

CULTIVATIONS:

• Wheat

• Tobacco

• Cotton

• Corn


A3 Thessaly


2 S band EEC radars +2 C Band (alternative )


HAIL control (Thessaloniki airport)


142 Hailpads 64 Rain gauges


HAILFALL OCCURRENCEIN CENTRAL MACEDONIA, GREECE

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Rel

. Fre

quen

cy (%

)

April May June July August Sept.


Evaluation of the Greek Hail Suppression Program


A few words before the results

It’s reasonable to Evaluate an Operational Cloud Seeding

Program?


TRESSA FOWLER

No conclusions can be drawn from No conclusions can be drawn from statistical evaluations of statistical evaluations of operationaloperationalprograms. programs. No exceptions.No exceptions.


Why Not? or the Bad News

Often no control group.Often no control group.When there is, usually systematic When there is, usually systematic differences between control and differences between control and treatment:treatment:

not selected at random. not selected at random. comparison of before and after.comparison of before and after.

Possible hidden cause.Possible hidden cause.

TRESSA FOWLER


TO TEST THE PHYSICAL HYPOTHESES

OF HOW SEEDING IS SUPPOSED TO WORK,

RANDOMIZED EXPERIMENTSARE NEEDED


DIFFICULTIES ON STATISTICAL EVALUATION

NEED TO CONVIENCE

SCIENTISTS FINANCIER PEOPLE

Theoretician•Conceptual model

•Physical hypothesis

Operational•Procedures

•Equipment

They do not care about evaluation,

but just for the (economic)

results.

They care about

rain enhancement

or

hail suppression.


THE GREEK NATIONAL

HAIL SUPPRESSION

PROJECT

ΑΑ22

ΑΑ11

ΑΑ33

•OPERATION. AREAS: A1, A2 A3 (4000 Km2)

•TIME PERIOD

•KIND OF OPERAT.: A1 Research & Ops

:1984-88: 15-Apr. - 30 Sep.


Edessa

Veria

Giannitsa(1)

(2)

Area: Α1 Crossover North

South

““CROSSOVER DESIGN”CROSSOVER DESIGN”Randomize the two areas (North and

South) for each experimental unit.

End of experimental unit, 7 daylight hours after last operation.


Hailpad Network


Typical Hailpad


TOTAL HAILFALL OCCURRENCES AT EACH HAILPAD SITE

IN CENTRAL MACEDONIA, GREECE


RATIO STATISTICS1. The results are positive.

2. 18 (out of 21) parameters are statistically accepted at the 5% level of significance.

3. Their effect is between 35% and 72%.

4. Only 3 (out of 21) parameters are not statistically accepted at α=0.05. In spite of that, they show positive results.

Single Ratio: seeding at the south part of area A, was more successful of that at the north part.

The Stone Kinetic Energy (Τ) parameter was considered as the tentative candidate for the “primary evaluation parameter”. Hence, the established 70% effect, would be more valuable and trustworthy, if it would be calculated on time.


The current project ends on 2008. From now we are preparing for the new period 2009-2013


Let’s•the met to direct the pilots•the pilots to fly in the cells •the scientists to continue the research

A wish for the new project


A new Hail protection project

with G.B.G.in GREECE


The initial target area

A1


The initial proposed sitting ……..


Procedures had been followed…

1. ELGA’s Board decision → done2. Working team to carry out the project → done3. Specifications ( who is going to do what ) → done4. International tender → done5. Start point…… → not yet


• WMA in the field of weather modification

• Cyprus in the field of Agr. Insurances

• Serbia in the field of Active Protection

• AIAG in the field of Agr. Insurances

• Austria in the field of Airborne Cloud Seeding

• Italy for Civil Protection

• Spain in the field of Cloud Seeding by Ground Means

• Argentina in the field of weather modification

• Bulgaria & Croatia …. it’s coming soon

International Collaboration

Indicative list


Argentina


….. the agreement with ELGA….


AUSTRIAAirborne cloud seeding for Hail Suppression

Protected area:

~2500 km2140 hailpads2 x 2 km grid


The Austrian Hail Defense A/C (from the left to the right) :Cessna 206 OE-DUM- Cessna 210 OE-DSD- Cessna 172 OE-DLS


Cessna 210 OE-DSD

Wingspan: 10,2 m

Engine: Lycoming6-cylinders 290 HP

2 silver-iodide-generators

2 flare racks


One of the two silver-iodide generators on the Cessna 210. Above a flare rack

The flares contain pressed black powder with appr. 7 % volumeof silver iodide

The burning duration of the flares manufactured by the Austrian company Pinto 7 min


BulgariaThe Hail Suppression Project with the rockets

has terminated


Although the Bulgarian hail project has terminated …..

•They continue to produce AgI•The Government is thinking to start an airborne cloud seeding project in collaboration with Greece

•The future is open


SPAIN Hail Suppression Project with GBG


Weather Modification Activities

in Cyprus


Where is Cyprus…


No Weather Mod Activities

YET ……….

OGA (Cyprus) is thinking to follow

the ELGA (Greek) experience

hail suppression in greece

Education

weather modification activities

argentina george

central macedonia

statistically accepted

cessna 210 oe

experimental unit

george

results