half-year 2015 roadshow september 1-3, 2015ado.properties/download/companies/adoproperties/... ·...
TRANSCRIPT
HALF-YEAR 2015
ROADSHOW
SEPTEMBER 1-3, 2015
2
Senior Management Team
CEO
Rabin Savion
• 2006 – present: Co-founder and
CEO of ADO
• 2002 – 2004: VP International BD
& Marketing at Oxford Capital
Investments / Pine Equity
• 2001 – 2002: Int. Business
Director MAN Properties in
affiliation with CBRE
• 1992 – 2001: Several
international Real Estate
Consultant positions (Miami, US)
• Studied Hospitality Management;
holds BS from Florida
International University
• Born in 1967
CFO
Yaron Zaltsman
• 2015 – present: CFO of ADO
• 2007 – 2015: CFO of ADO Group
Ltd.
• 2001 – 2006: Senior Manager at
Deloitte Touché - Financial Advisory
services
• 1999 – 2000: Consultant at Arthur
Andersen LLP
• Certified Public Accountant (CPA)
• Studied Economics & Accounting
at The Hebrew University of
Jerusalem (Israel); holds an MBA
from Tel Aviv University (Israel)
• Born in 1974
COO
Eyal Horn
• 2007 – present: COO of ADO
• 2004 – 2006: Operations
Manager at Italo
• 2002 – 2003: Business
Development & Sales at Marcus
Evans
• Studied International Business
Administration at Schiller
International University (Florida /
Germany); holds a BBA degree
• Born in 1975
• Strategy
• Business
Development
• Acquisitions
• Human Resources
• Communication
• Finance & Treasury
• Controlling & Risk
Management
• Accounting & Tax
• Investor Relations
• Capital Markets
• Asset and Property
Management
• Construction
Management
• Facility Management
01ADO
OVERVIEW
AND
INVESTMENT
HIGHLIGHTS
Key portfolio metrics (per Q2 2015)Investment highlights
4
Overview ADO – the pure play Berlin residential specialist
…a focussed residential portfolio¹…
Residential
87%
Commercial²
11%
Other
2%
Hold portfolio
98%
Privatisation
potential
c. 11%
Privatisation
portfolio
2%
Buildings 256
Residential Units 13,738
Commercial Units 738
Total Units 14,476
Lettable area (sqm) 969,031
Property value €1.2bn
EPRA NAV €518m
EPRA NAV proforma1 €712m
LTV 57.6%
LTV proforma1 41.6%
In-place rent €66.6m
1 Based on in-place rent total portfolio
2 Commercial in-place rent mainly as part of residential buildings
3 Based on residential lettable area
Milastr.
Prenzlauer Berg
Lübecker Str.
Mitte
Möckernstr.
Kreuzberg
…with potential for privatisation³
Source: ADO, CBRE
1 Proforma numbers are based on expected net proceeds of € 194m from IPO
Berlin residential pure play with a €1.2bn quality portfolio
Efficient, fully integrated and scalable platform with clear strategy
to create value and a management team with in-depth knowledge
of the Berlin market from almost a decade of local presence
Significant rental growth potential demonstrated with 6.2% average
annual like-for-like growth over the past three years (2012-2014)
Conservative financial strategy with c. 45-50% target LTV, c. 6 years
weighted average maturity, with low (2.6%) average cost of debt
and marginal cost of debt of 1.7% supporting FFO profile
2
3
1
4
Our properties…
Highlights Q2
5
Significant improvement in the operational and financial numbers
Financials
Proforma
IPO1 Q2 2015 HY1 2015
Income from rental activities € 17.8m € 28.6m
EBITDA from rental activities € 13.1m € 21.1m
EBITDA Margin 79% 78%
FFO1 €8.5m €13.1m
FFO1 per share €0.24 €0.34 €0.53
EPRA NAV per share €20.35 €20.73 €20.73
LTV 41.6% 57.6% 57.6%
Operations Q2 2015 2014
Rental growth l-f-l (LTM) 6.7% 8.0%
Vacancy rate 4.3% 4.8%
Privatization - avg. sales price /sqm €2,791 NM
Total maintenance & CAPEX /sqm €19.2 €27.2
• Integration of the Carlos portfolio with 5,749
residential units from April 1, 2015
• Operational integration on track, around 60 new
employees hired and integrated
• Investment program for Carlos portfolio started
• Vacancy rate significantly improved despite Carlos
integration
• Privatization program further ramping up, on track to
achieve sales target of 50 units in 2015
• Avg. Sales price of €2,791 per sqm, well above the
avg. portfolio value of €1,250 per sqm
• IPO was successfully concluded
• Fast track inclusion in the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Index
family achieved
1 Proforma numbers are based on expected net proceeds of € 194m from IPO and 35m shares post IPO
02ADO
PORTFOLIO
AND
STRATEGY
Key metrics residential portfolio
ADO portfolio focused on Central locations
7
Central locations1 North East South West Total
Property value (in mill. €) 601 212 75 81 242 1,211
Number of units 5,544 2,858 988 716 3,632 13,738
Avg. Rent in € / sqm / month 6.12 5.42 6.34 5.84 5.22 5.71
Avg. New letting rent in € / sqm / month 8.47 7.11 8.84 7.76 6.66 8.21
Occupancy (physical) 97.1% 95.8% 90.1% 98.3% 94.2% 95.7%
ADO has a high quality centrally located Berlin portfolio
100% exposure within Berlin city borders with 50% in Central Locations
1 Berlin’s central locations comprise the districts Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf, Friedrichshain, Kreuzberg, Mitte, North Neukölln, North Steglitz, Prenzlauerberg, South Reinickendorf and Schöneberg
High quality turn of the century…
N
W E
S
Spandau
Reinickendorf
Charlottenburg
-Wilmersdorf
Steglitz-
Zehlendorf
Mitte
Pankow
Lichten-
berg
Marzahn-
Hellersdorf
Treptow-
Köpenick
NeuköllnTempelhof-
Schöneberg
Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg
Central
Building locations:
Central locations1
North
East
South
West
Source: ADO, CBRE
4%8%
13%14%
6%
55%
Year of construction
1991-
2002
1973-
1990
1965-
1972
1950-
1964
< 1918 1919-
1949
1%3%
22%19%
29%26%
>186
# of floors
< 4 12-185 7-11
% of buildings % of buildings
…mostly low rise buildings
Like-for-like growth driven by active managementResidential like-for-like rental growth1 (%)
8
Average of 6.2% p.a. residential like-for-like rental growth over the
past three years, driven by:
Strong rental growth continues, based on quality portfolio and active management
Growth beyond rent table through targeted capex
investments, improving the quality and rent level of the
portfolio
1High regular rent increases implemented up to the
legal limits, resulting in rent increases for 31% of
existing tenants in 2014
Rent increases to market levels through tenant
fluctuation without capex
2
3
1 Annualised figures
8.0%
Regular increasesFrom fluctuation
From cost rentsFrom capex
Source: ADO
Reducing portfolio vacancy by active marketing with
location specific approach4
Maintenance & capex (€ / sqm)
2012 2013 2014Avg.
2012-2014
1st HY 20151
Maintenance 3.9 6.0 6.5 5.5 6.4
Capitalised maintenance 4.6 5.7 7.6 6.4 3.8
Modernisation capex 9.7 7.4 13.2 10.6 9.0
Total 18.2 19.1 27.2 22.5 19.2
1 Includes vacancy changes
0.1%
1.5%
2.5%
2013
4.7%
2.4%
0.0%1.0%
1.3%
2012
5.8%
1.7%
Q2 2015 (LTM)
6.7%
1.4%0.0%
1.8%
3.5%
2014
8.0%
2.8%
0.3%
1.6%
3.3% Avg.:
6.2%
1 Includes vacancy changes
Active asset management and high regular rent increases resulting in 6.2% annual like-for-like rental growth
9
Examples of past investments
• Focused investments on units with highest rent potential
• 223 units modernised, with c. €2.9m modernisation
capex spent on residential unit refurbishments in 1HY
2015
• Average investment of €13.0k per refurbished residential unit
allowed to achieve an average unlevered return on investment
of 21.8% in 2015 better than the on average 17.5% for the
years 2012 to 20141
• Targeted investments are also a measure to address
restrictions from rental cap regulation
2012 2013 2014 1HY 20153
Refurbished residential units 181 169 421 223
Average investment in € per
unit110,999 11,959 13,191 12,960
Return on investment
(unlevered)217.5% 16.8% 17.7% 21.8%
• Increased monthly
net rent from
€6.00 / sqm
to €8.18 / sqm
• Increased annual
rent from
€7,206 to €9,825
• Unit capex
investment:
€11,739
• ROI of 22.3%
• Increased monthly
net rent from
€3.50 / sqm
to €7.89 / sqm
• Increased annual
rent from
€3,990 to €8,995
• Unit capex
investment:
€25,671
• ROI of 19.5%
Karl-Marx-Str. 156,
Neukölln
Kantstr. 122,
Charlottenburg
1 Modernisation capex spent on residential unit refurbishment only
2 Annual rent differential before and after refurbishment divided by unit refurbishment investments
3 Based on the units already relet
Realising rent increases and attractive returns from targeted investments is a key component of our strategy
Investment strategy
Residential unit refurbishment investment and returns 1
Attractive returns of on average 21.8% above the long term average of 17.5% through targeted investments
Source: ADO
2
Strong vacancy reduction track record1 (per Q2 2015)
10
Active management creates upside from vacancy reduction
1 Residential only
Significant improvement since start of the year, but improvement activities result in ongoing elevated levels
• Strong track record of reducing vacancy and increasing
vacancies in acquired portfolios
• Average stabilisation period for acquired portfolios between 1 to
1.5 years, often with an initial increase in vacancy to improve
tenant structure
• Consistently sustainable high rent collection based on
procedural discipline in new tenant screening
Portfolio UnitsVacancy at
acquisition
Current
vacancy
€ / sqm at
acquisition
Current
€ / sqm
Acquired before 2012 2,744 8.1% 2.1% €4.92 €5.95
Acquired during 2012 552 4.0% 2.5% €5.57 €6.36
Acquired during 2013 1,977 6.2% 3.3% €5.38 €6.03
Acquired during 2014 936 3.4% 3.0% €6.12 €6.28
Acquisition Löwenberger
Str. 2,4 (2014)379 29.8% 32.5% €8.36 €8.72
Carlos portfolio 5,749 4.0% 4.9% €5.20 €5.24
Sta
ble
po
rtfo
lio
Vacancy improvement Rent increase
• Units currently available for letting amount to 1.1% vacancy
• Units currently being refurbished result in vacancy of 2.7%
• One turnaround project in Lichtenberg, Löwenberger Str. 2-4,
accounts for 0.7% of total vacancy (see next page)
• The Carlos-Portfolio accounts for 2.1% of total vacancy.
• More than 80% of the vacancy in the Carlos portfolio results
from the initiated construction work
• Vacancy rate in the “original” portfolio dropped by 100bps in
first half year 2015
Vacancy split¹
1 Based on physical vacancy, residential only; commercial vacancy rate Q2 15 3.8% vs Q4 14 3.6%
Source: ADO
4
1.9%1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
2.5%
1.6%
0.9%
1.8%
0.4%
0.8%
0.5%
4.8%
3.8%
4.3%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
Q4 2014 Q2 2015
like-for-like
Q2 2015
Total
Sales
Construction (Carlos)
Construction
Marketing (Carlos)
Marketing
Carlos Portfolio – Integration and improvement has startedLöwenberger Straße – Investment & turnaround on track
11
Case studies –Löwenberger Straße & Carlos Portfolio
Key metrics (per August 12, 2015)
Location Lichtenberg
Acquisition price €13m
Number of units 379
Avg. rent / sqm / month – at acquisition €8.36
Avg. rent / sqm / month – current €8.78
Avg. new lettings rent / sqm / month €10.03
Target occupancy 98.0%
Occupancy steadily increasing since turnaround in Feb 15
• Active asset management to improve tenant structure
• €1,357k capex since acquisition on 144 units (€278 / sqm) to
create up-to-date standards, of which 104 are already let
Active management combined with targeted investments drives significant KPI improvements
Source: ADO
70.2%
56.6%
74.7%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
stabilization phase
99 vacant units, of which
c. 40 with Marketing &
59 under construction
• Around 60 new employees hired to ensure full integration &
application of ADO standards and processes in the Carlos
portfolio (no employees taken over)
• Investment and improvement program has started, already
around 300 under construction. Current vacancy rate therefore
at 5.1% (more than 80% due to construction)
• Satellite/field offices in place used by operation to service and
enhance tenant satisfaction (technical support, complete facility
management services and letting staff).
• Already more than 80 new lettings improving the average rent
since take-over by 2.5%
Key metrics (per August 12, 2015)
Location Spandau & Reinickendorf
Acquisition price €376m
Number of units 5,749
Avg. rent / sqm / month – at acquisition €5.20
Avg. rent / sqm / month – current €5.33
Avg. new lettings rent / sqm / month €5.96
Rent restricted units 48%
12
• Value-oriented condo sales at prices exceeding fair value
• 20 units sold in first half year 2015 for gross proceeds of
€4.15m
• Taxable profit of only 17% doesn’t reflect the full economic
gain as the units currently sold have been acquired as
condominiums therefore are carried at higher book values
• Sales target of at least 50 units in 2015 on track
• ADO targets to privatise around 100-150 units p.a. going
forward
Privatisation strategy and selection criteria
Acquisitions
Privatisation & Acquisition activities well on track
20 units sold in 1 HY 15 for an average sales price of €2,791 per sqm
Source: ADO
555
1,156 1,711
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
Converted & Conversion
in progress
Eligible for
conversion
Total
Units
1,250
2,791
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Avg. Portfolio value
30/06/15
Avg. sales price
1HY 2015
€/sqm
Condominium conversion potential - Pipeline
Sales profit – Avg. sales price vs. portfolio value
• Opportunities all over Berlin are under review
• Total current pipeline of 2,600 units
• Thereof 1,100 units in final stage of negotiation
03FINANCIAL
OVERVIEW
In EUR m H1 2015 Q2 2015 Year 2014
Income from rental activities 28.6 17.8 33.7
Cost of rental activities (4.9) (3.2) (6.1)
Net operating income 23.7 14.6 27.6
Overhead costs (2.6) (1.5) (3.0)
EBITDA from rental activities 21.1 13.1 24.6
EBITDA from rental activities margin (%) 78.5% 79.1% 76.9%
Net result from privatization sales 0.7 0.2 0.1
EBITDA total 21.8 13.3 24.7
Financial cost interest bearing loans (8.0) (4.6) (11.1)
Financial costs shareholder loans/net others (5.6) (3.3) (2.7)
D&A (0.1) (0.1) (0.1)
EBT 8.1 5.3 10.8
14
• Income from rental activities for the first 6 months increased by 80%
driven mainly by the integration of the Carlos portfolio from April 1, 2015.
Income from rental activities as of Q2 reflects an annualized income of
€ 71 million.
Strong rental growth supported by our investment strategy
• The EBITDA from rental activities increased by 72% for the first half
2015. Comparing Q2 2015 to Q1 2015 it grew by 62% to EUR 13 million.
This represents an annualized EBITDA of EUR 52 million.
• Financing relies predominately on bank financing provided by German
mortgage banks that currently amounts to € 694m and a € 19m loan from
Harel. The average interest rate runs at 2.6%
• Include mostly non-cash interest loans from ADO Group which were all
converted into equity following the IPO.
Source: ADO
Comments
Overview of profit and loss
1
1
3
4
3
2
4
In %Q2 2015
(LTM)2014
CAPEX 3.5% 3.3%
Fluctuation 1.8% 1.6%
Cost Rents 0.0% 0.3%
Regular Increases 1.4% 2.8%
Total 6.7% 8.0%
2
In EUR m H1 2015 Q2 2015 Year 2014
EBITDA from rental activities 21.1 13.1 24.6
Net cash interest (8.0) (4.6) (11.1)
FFO1 (from rental activities) 13.1 8.5 13.5
Maintenance capital expenditures (1.4) (0.7) (3.4)
AFFO from rental activities 11.7 7.8 10.1
Net profit from privatizations 0.7 0.2 0.1
FFO2 (incl. disposal results) 13.8 8.7 13.6
FFO 1 EUR per share 0.53 0.34 0.54
FFO2 EUR per share 0.55 0.35 0.55
Based on 25m shares as of Jun 30, 2015
FFO 1 EUR per share (proforma) 0.38 0.24 0.39
FFO2 EUR per share (proforma) 0.40 0.25 0.39
Based on 35m shares post IPO
• FFO has increased strongly over the last years benefitting from strong
organic and acquisitive rental income growth. The increase in Q2 2015 is
mainly due to the addition of the Carlos portfolio.
• Maintenance & CAPEX
Total investment into the portfolio in the first half of 2015 amounted to
EUR 7.4 million compared to EUR 12.3 million in 2014. The reduced cost
per sqm on the modernization capex and capitalized maintenance results
from the integration of the Carlos portfolio which was only taken over in
the second quarter. We are currently in the ramp-up phase of our
dedicated building by building business plan for this part of our
portfolio. The investment in our “original” portfolio was in line with historic
levels which supported our strong 6.7% like-for-like rental growth.
• Capitalized maintenance (public) refers to investments to preserve the
quality and value of properties and does not include investment capex.
• Our privatization business which we started at the end of 2014 was
continuously taking up speed in the first half of 2015. In the first half of
2015 we already sold 20 units. With that we see ourselves well on track to
achieve our goal to sell at least 50 units until the end of the year. The
comparably low taxable profit of 17% results from the fact that most of
these units have already been acquired as condominiums and have
therefore been carried at higher values in our books compared to assets
which have been acquired as rental only properties. The average sales
price of €2,791 per sqm compare to an average portfolio value of €1,250
per sqm.
15
Q2 strong FFO yield reflects an annual run-rate of 6.5% on our NAV
1
3
1
2
Source: ADO
Comments
3
4
In EUR / per sqmJan 1–Jun
30, 2015
Jan 1–Dec
31, 2014
Maintenance 6.4 6.5
Capitalized maintenance 3.8 7.6
Modernization CAPEX 9.0 13.2
Total 19.2 27.2
2
4
25%
24%22%
22%
3%2% 2%
Solid balance sheet with low cost of debt and long term financingwith a targeted c. 45-50% LTV
16
• Total bank debt of €694m - primarily mortgage backed/secured
• Average cost of debt of 2.6%1 (2.5% on bank debt)
• 96% of interest is fixed or hedged
• No near term maturities with avg. weighted maturity of c. 6 years
• Mid-term target LTV of c. 45-50% allowing fast execution of
acquisitions from primary proceeds and target maturity for mortgage
debt between 5 to 7 years
• Successfully secured financing for acquisition of Carlos portfolio
at 1.7%
Diversified funding with German mortgage banks – by volume
Loan maturity profile with weighted average debt maturity of
c. 6 years
Key financing figures and strategy
Solid financing structure supporting FFO and cash flows with a committed LTV target of 45-50%
- 14 48
211
440
0
100
200
300
400
2015 2016 2017 2018-
2020
2021+
Bank debt (€m)
Q2 2015 LTV of 57% pre IPO due to recent acquisitions1
45
70
57
42
0
20
40
60
80
100
Old portfolio New portfolios
(Waypoint & Carlos)
Combined Pro-forma
LTV (%)3.4% 1.7% 2.6%
4.4%
2.8%
3.3%
2.1%
% Average interest rate
% Average interest rate
Source: ADO
1 Total of bank debt and € 19m Harel loan
1 Proforma numbers are based on expected net proceeds of € 194m from IPO
• Total portfolio value of € 1,211m as at 30 June, 2015 includes both
trading and investment properties. The Carlos portfolio with a total
amount of € 376m was taken over in April:
• Interest bearing loans include € 694m loans from banks and a loan
from Harel in an amount of € 19m related to the WayPoint portfolio.
• Includes only loans and capital notes from ADO Group. In July 2015,
these shareholder loans were converted into equity as a non-
refundable capital contribution without issuance of new shares
Overview of balance sheet
17
1
3
2
Source: ADO
Comments
Carlos
Remaining
portfolio - mostly
in Central Berlin Total
Total fair value € 376m € 835m € 1,211m
Value per sqm € 939 € 1,469 € 1,250
Multiplier
(current rent) 15.6x 19.6x 18.2x
Multiplier (new
letting rent) 13.1x 14.3x 13.9x
In EUR m JUN 30, 2015 DEC 31, 2014
(Unaudited) (Audited)
Investment properties 1,170 731
Other non-current assets 2 1
Non-current assets 1,172 732
Cash and cash equivalents 15 10
Other current assets 67 59
Current assets 82 69
Total assets 1,254 801
Interest bearing loans 713 433
Amounts due to related parties 290 186
Other liabilities 28 25
Deferred tax liabilities 41 26
total Liabilities 1,072 670
Total equity attributable to shareholders of the company 178 130
Non-controlling interests 4 1
Total Equity 182 131
Total shareholder’s equity and liabilities 1,254 801
Add back shareholder loans (to be converted upon IPO) 290 186
Adjusted Equity 468 316
1
1
2
3
18
Current proforma NAV - € 20.35 per share
(€m)
Source: ADO, CBRE
EPRA NAV (JUN 30, 2015 – unaudited)
178
518
712
290 941
Total equity attributableto shareholders of the
company
Add backshareholder loans
(to be converted uponIPO)
Derivatives Deferred tax liabilities EPRA NAV (unaudited) Profroma EPRA NAV(unaudited)
€ 20.73
per share
€ 20.35
per share
1 Proforma numbers are based on expected net proceeds of € 194m from IPO and 35m shares post IPO
We expect further growth of the NAV per share due to strong demand especially in Central Berlin
Seelchower Str.
Neukölln
19
Guidance
Bötzowstr.
Pankow
Schlesische Str.
Kreuzberg
Leibnizstr.
Charlottenburg
Transvaalstr.
Wedding
Kalischer Str.
Wilmersdorf
For the full year of 2015 we update our FFO1 forecast to be approximately EUR 30 million
In the privatization business we confirm our target to sell at least 50 units for the full year 2015 and
expect to sell around 100 to 150 from 2016 onwards
We anticipate like-for-like rental growth going forward to be approximately 5% which would have positive
impact over our portfolio value, NAV and NAV per share 1
2
3
The dividend payout ratio is expected to be between 30% to 40% of FFO14
04CONTACT
INFORMATION
ADO Properties
Am Karlsbad 11
10785 Berlin
Germany
Investor Relations
+49 (30) 403 907 500
APPENDIXMARKET
OVERVIEW
22
Berlin’s attraction is based on its modern infrastructure, educational institutions and growing presence as a business hub
Berlin attracts the highest number of new businesses in Germany…
Source: Senate Department for Economics, Technology and Research
…and also attracts an increasing number of blue-chip companies…
Source: Berliner Morgenpost Berlin’s Top Employers 2014 Annual Survey
…resulting in a growing population
Source: Bundesländer Statistics Offices
Comments
Source: Verkehrverbund Berlin-Brandenburg, Destatis, Bundesländer Statistics Offices
• Modern infrastructure• 3.6m daily passenger trips via the public transportation system
• >28m overnight stays annually (3rd rank in Europe)
• Leading educational institutions• Federal state with the 2nd highest spending on education (€1,514 per
capita)
• Federal state with highest number of non-Berlin students (c. 29,000)
• Growing presence as a business hub• 30,000 jobs created in 2013
• Federal state with the highest level of venture capital investment in IT
(€136m; €46m for runner-up)
• Federal state with the 2nd highest spending on R&D (3.6% of GDP)
DE
76
SH
78
BY
81
HB
84
HE
96
HH
111
BE ST
46
TH
121
BB
57
MV
58
SL
60
SN
62
NI
65
BW
70
NW
75
RP
75
52
(0.4)%(0.4)%
(0.1)%
(0.7)%
MVSN SL
0.0%
THBB
(0.2)%
NW
0.1%
STRPBY
0.7%
HH
0.7%
BE
1.4%
0.1%
NI
0.1%
DE
0.2%
SH
0.3%
HB
0.4%
HE
0.5%
BW
0.6%
Population growth (2013)
# of new businesses per 10,000 residents (2013)
German headquarters
Note: BB=Brandenburg, BE=Berlin, BW=Baden-Württemberg, BY=Bayern, HB=Bremen, HE=Hessen, HH=Hamburg, MV=Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, NL=Niedersachsen, NW=Nordrhein-Westfalen, RP=Rheinland-Pfalz, SH= Schleswig-
Holstein, SL=Saarland, SN=Sachsen, ST=Sachsen-Anhalt and TH=Thüringen
Berlin vacancy decreased rapidly…
… due to strong migration to Berlin, which is forecast to
remain strong……
… further increasing housing shortage given lack of new supply
Vacancy in the Berlin market reduced significantly based on continuing population growth
Source: Berlin-Brandenburg Statistics Office, Senatsverwaltung für Stadtentwicklung und Umwelt
Source: CBRE‐empirica‐Leerstandsindex reports
1 Demand is estimated as population growth divided by the average household size of 1.73 (CBRE), increased by
c. 4,800 buildings to be replaced, as estimated by the Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln (IWK)
2 Estimation based on the construction permits, issued in 2011
3 Estimation based on the sum of the construction permits, issued in 2012-2014
Source: Berlin-Brandenburg Statistics Office, IWK, CBRE Berlin Housing Market Report 2014, Federal Institute for
Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development
Continuous undersupply in the market providing strong fundamental support for ADO’s business case
23
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
1.8%
3,700
3,600
3,500
0
X1,000
+22.7k p.a.
+44.7k
+47.8k
3,517
2013
3,562
2014
3,698
2020
3,470
2012
Berlin housing supply and demand
Berlin residential housing vacancy
Berlin population growth
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
# of apartments
Total 2015-2017F
53,800
33,500³
2014
31,000
5,500²
2013
32,500
4,526
2012
29,400
4,180
Demand¹Newly built apartments