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Nikolas Pediaditis | RIPE 78 | 22 May 2019 …while focusing on IPv6 Handling IPv4 Runout

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Page 1: Handling IPv4 Runout · IP Addresses /22s Total IPv4 4.151.040 4053 Contiguous /22s 3.162.112 3088 Reserved /16 65.536 64 Fragments 965 Consumption Rate (Allocations) January 393

Nikolas Pediaditis | RIPE 78 | 22 May 2019

…while focusing on IPv6

Handling IPv4 Runout

Page 2: Handling IPv4 Runout · IP Addresses /22s Total IPv4 4.151.040 4053 Contiguous /22s 3.162.112 3088 Reserved /16 65.536 64 Fragments 965 Consumption Rate (Allocations) January 393

Nikolas Pediaditis | RIPE 78 | 22 May 2019 !2

Page 3: Handling IPv4 Runout · IP Addresses /22s Total IPv4 4.151.040 4053 Contiguous /22s 3.162.112 3088 Reserved /16 65.536 64 Fragments 965 Consumption Rate (Allocations) January 393

Will IPv4 Last Until Rotterdam?

Page 4: Handling IPv4 Runout · IP Addresses /22s Total IPv4 4.151.040 4053 Contiguous /22s 3.162.112 3088 Reserved /16 65.536 64 Fragments 965 Consumption Rate (Allocations) January 393

Nikolas Pediaditis | RIPE 78 | 22 May 2019 !4

Current Status

IP Addresses /22s

Total IPv4 4.151.040 4053

Contiguous /22s 3.162.112 3088

Reserved /16 65.536 64

Fragments 965

Consumption Rate (Allocations)

January 393

February 414

March 470

April 500

Six Month Average 475

Page 5: Handling IPv4 Runout · IP Addresses /22s Total IPv4 4.151.040 4053 Contiguous /22s 3.162.112 3088 Reserved /16 65.536 64 Fragments 965 Consumption Rate (Allocations) January 393

Nikolas Pediaditis | RIPE 78 | 22 May 2019

When Will We Run Out?• According to current consumption rate:

- Contiguous /22s: Late November 2019

- Incl. the Reserved /16: Early December 2019

- Incl. Fragments: Early February 2020

• But it will likely be much sooner… - At RIPE 77 the estimation was May/June 2020

!5

Page 6: Handling IPv4 Runout · IP Addresses /22s Total IPv4 4.151.040 4053 Contiguous /22s 3.162.112 3088 Reserved /16 65.536 64 Fragments 965 Consumption Rate (Allocations) January 393

Then Comes a Waiting List

Page 7: Handling IPv4 Runout · IP Addresses /22s Total IPv4 4.151.040 4053 Contiguous /22s 3.162.112 3088 Reserved /16 65.536 64 Fragments 965 Consumption Rate (Allocations) January 393

Nikolas Pediaditis | RIPE 78 | 22 May 2019

Preparations Have StartedIt involves a lot of work: • Review our procedures

• Plan complex changes to our internal/external software

• Updates to our documentation

• Ensure clear communication with our stakeholders

!7

Page 8: Handling IPv4 Runout · IP Addresses /22s Total IPv4 4.151.040 4053 Contiguous /22s 3.162.112 3088 Reserved /16 65.536 64 Fragments 965 Consumption Rate (Allocations) January 393

Nikolas Pediaditis | RIPE 78 | 22 May 2019

Goals• Be ready as early as possible

• Keep things simple

• Ensure fairness and transparency

• Efficiency: automate as much as possible

• Keep members and other stakeholders informed

• Learn from the experience of reaching the final /8 in 2012

!8

Page 9: Handling IPv4 Runout · IP Addresses /22s Total IPv4 4.151.040 4053 Contiguous /22s 3.162.112 3088 Reserved /16 65.536 64 Fragments 965 Consumption Rate (Allocations) January 393

Nikolas Pediaditis | RIPE 78 | 22 May 2019

New Policy Proposal2019-02 v2: IPv4 Waiting List Implementation • “First come, first served” waiting list for IPv4 allocations

• When the equivalent of a /22 can no longer be allocated

• The size of allocations is reduced from /22 to /24

• For LIRs without an allocation from the RIPE NCC

• IPv4 blocks smaller than a /24 are kept aside

!9

Page 10: Handling IPv4 Runout · IP Addresses /22s Total IPv4 4.151.040 4053 Contiguous /22s 3.162.112 3088 Reserved /16 65.536 64 Fragments 965 Consumption Rate (Allocations) January 393

Nikolas Pediaditis | RIPE 78 | 22 May 2019

If Accepted…• Timelines until exhaustion are not affected • More LIRs will receive a small(er) chunk of IPv4

• Reduced waiting time

• Less attractive for speculators

!10

Page 11: Handling IPv4 Runout · IP Addresses /22s Total IPv4 4.151.040 4053 Contiguous /22s 3.162.112 3088 Reserved /16 65.536 64 Fragments 965 Consumption Rate (Allocations) January 393

Nikolas Pediaditis | RIPE 78 | 22 May 2019

If Accepted…• Timelines until exhaustion are not affected

• More LIRs will receive a small(er) chunk of IPv4

Will accommodate 320 requests per year, compared to 80 under current policy

!11

Recovered IPv4 Addresses (2016-2018)

2016 83,712

2017 106,368

2018 53,824

Page 12: Handling IPv4 Runout · IP Addresses /22s Total IPv4 4.151.040 4053 Contiguous /22s 3.162.112 3088 Reserved /16 65.536 64 Fragments 965 Consumption Rate (Allocations) January 393

Nikolas Pediaditis | RIPE 78 | 22 May 2019

If Accepted…• Timelines until exhaustion are not affected

• More LIRs will receive a small(er) chunk of IPv4

• It will reduce waiting time

!12

0

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3500

2017-01 2017-02 2017-03 2017-04 2017-05 2017-06 2017-07 2017-08 2017-09 2017-10 2017-11 2017-12

Issued /22 allocations Waiting list for /22 allocations

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2017-01 2017-02 2017-03 2017-04 2017-05 2017-06 2017-07 2017-08 2017-09 2017-10 2017-11 2017-12

Issued /24 allocations Waiting list for /24 allocations

Model with /22s Model with /24s

Page 13: Handling IPv4 Runout · IP Addresses /22s Total IPv4 4.151.040 4053 Contiguous /22s 3.162.112 3088 Reserved /16 65.536 64 Fragments 965 Consumption Rate (Allocations) January 393

Nikolas Pediaditis | RIPE 78 | 22 May 2019

If Accepted…• Timelines until exhaustion are not affected

• More LIRs will receive a small(er) chunk of IPv4

• It will reduce waiting time

• Less attractive for speculators

!13

Page 14: Handling IPv4 Runout · IP Addresses /22s Total IPv4 4.151.040 4053 Contiguous /22s 3.162.112 3088 Reserved /16 65.536 64 Fragments 965 Consumption Rate (Allocations) January 393

Expanding IXP Pool: Last Call!

Page 15: Handling IPv4 Runout · IP Addresses /22s Total IPv4 4.151.040 4053 Contiguous /22s 3.162.112 3088 Reserved /16 65.536 64 Fragments 965 Consumption Rate (Allocations) January 393

Nikolas Pediaditis | RIPE 78 | 22 May 2019 !15

Expected Depletion of IXP Pool

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

IXP Pool Size

Page 16: Handling IPv4 Runout · IP Addresses /22s Total IPv4 4.151.040 4053 Contiguous /22s 3.162.112 3088 Reserved /16 65.536 64 Fragments 965 Consumption Rate (Allocations) January 393

Nikolas Pediaditis | RIPE 78 | 22 May 2019

IXP Pool Size• A /16 is held in reserve for IXPs (ripe-720)

• IXPs are considered a key part of the Internet ecosystem

• PDP takes at least four months

• Is the pool size large enough?

• If not, it’s time to act!

!16

Page 17: Handling IPv4 Runout · IP Addresses /22s Total IPv4 4.151.040 4053 Contiguous /22s 3.162.112 3088 Reserved /16 65.536 64 Fragments 965 Consumption Rate (Allocations) January 393

IPv6: Not All Runouts Are Bad

Page 18: Handling IPv4 Runout · IP Addresses /22s Total IPv4 4.151.040 4053 Contiguous /22s 3.162.112 3088 Reserved /16 65.536 64 Fragments 965 Consumption Rate (Allocations) January 393

Nikolas Pediaditis | RIPE 78 | 22 May 2019 !18

Distribution History/29 Initial Allocations

IPv4 Run-outIPv6 Allocations required

IPv6 allocations not required for IPv4 Resolution to allow multiple LIR Accounts

0

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400000

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800000

1000000

1200000Ja

n-05

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RIPE NCC IPv6 Pool in /32s

Available Reserved Issued

Page 19: Handling IPv4 Runout · IP Addresses /22s Total IPv4 4.151.040 4053 Contiguous /22s 3.162.112 3088 Reserved /16 65.536 64 Fragments 965 Consumption Rate (Allocations) January 393

Nikolas Pediaditis | RIPE 78 | 22 May 2019

We Are Getting MoreIANA Policy For Allocation of IPv6 Blocks to RIRs: • “A RIR is eligible to receive additional IPv6 address space from

the IANA when ... The RIR's available space of IPv6 addresses is less than 50% of a /12.”

• Our current IPv6 Available Space is equal to 21.7% of a /12

• RIPE NCC to be the first RIR to request a second /12 from IANA!

!19

Page 20: Handling IPv4 Runout · IP Addresses /22s Total IPv4 4.151.040 4053 Contiguous /22s 3.162.112 3088 Reserved /16 65.536 64 Fragments 965 Consumption Rate (Allocations) January 393

Stockpiling IPv6

Page 21: Handling IPv4 Runout · IP Addresses /22s Total IPv4 4.151.040 4053 Contiguous /22s 3.162.112 3088 Reserved /16 65.536 64 Fragments 965 Consumption Rate (Allocations) January 393

Nikolas Pediaditis | RIPE 78 | 22 May 2019 !21

IPv6 Allocations per MemberNumber of allocations Members Total Allocations

1 13013 130132 681 13623 167 5014 74 2965 33 1656 19 1147 22 1548 7 569 15 13510 12 12011 11 12112 6 7213 8 10416 1 1617 1 1718 4 7219 1 1920 1 2021 1 2128 1 2831 1 3152 1 52

Page 22: Handling IPv4 Runout · IP Addresses /22s Total IPv4 4.151.040 4053 Contiguous /22s 3.162.112 3088 Reserved /16 65.536 64 Fragments 965 Consumption Rate (Allocations) January 393

Nikolas Pediaditis | RIPE 78 | 22 May 2019

Factors• A /29 per LIR (not per organisation)

• IPv6 can be transferred without restrictions

• Multiple LIR accounts are allowed

!22

Page 23: Handling IPv4 Runout · IP Addresses /22s Total IPv4 4.151.040 4053 Contiguous /22s 3.162.112 3088 Reserved /16 65.536 64 Fragments 965 Consumption Rate (Allocations) January 393

Nikolas Pediaditis | RIPE 78 | 22 May 2019 !23

A Growing Trend

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1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Size of IPv6 Allocations in /32s

Issued to Multi-LIR Accounts Transferred Allocations Approved Large Allocations

86,044

44,712

Size of IPv6 Allocations in /32s

One allocation per member Multiple allocations per member

Page 24: Handling IPv4 Runout · IP Addresses /22s Total IPv4 4.151.040 4053 Contiguous /22s 3.162.112 3088 Reserved /16 65.536 64 Fragments 965 Consumption Rate (Allocations) January 393

Nikolas Pediaditis | RIPE 78 | 22 May 2019 !24

Members With More Than Five IPv6 Allocations

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50

100

150

200

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300

350

/29 /30 /31 /32

Announced by another ASN

Announced by another LIR's End User

Announced by another LIR

Announced by LIR's End User

Announced by LIR

How These Allocations are Announced

Page 25: Handling IPv4 Runout · IP Addresses /22s Total IPv4 4.151.040 4053 Contiguous /22s 3.162.112 3088 Reserved /16 65.536 64 Fragments 965 Consumption Rate (Allocations) January 393

Nikolas Pediaditis | RIPE 78 | 22 May 2019

Stockpiling IPv6

With a focus on the registry and our function as an RIR:

• Is it an issue? • Should something be done?

!25

Page 26: Handling IPv4 Runout · IP Addresses /22s Total IPv4 4.151.040 4053 Contiguous /22s 3.162.112 3088 Reserved /16 65.536 64 Fragments 965 Consumption Rate (Allocations) January 393

Questions [email protected]

Page 27: Handling IPv4 Runout · IP Addresses /22s Total IPv4 4.151.040 4053 Contiguous /22s 3.162.112 3088 Reserved /16 65.536 64 Fragments 965 Consumption Rate (Allocations) January 393

Nikolas Pediaditis | RIPE 78 | 22 May 2019

Discussion Topics

• Last call: shall we increase the size of the IXP pool?

• Stockpiling IPv6 - is it an issue?

!27