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Hanoi City

ECONOMY

2

E C O N O M Y

Q3 GDP Growth Accelerates

Q1 2017: 5.15%

Q2 2017: 6.28%

Q3 2017: 7.46%

9M 2017: 6.41%

2017 Goal: 6.7%

Manufacturing (9M) ▲ 6% y-o-y

Exports (9M) ▲ 19.8% y-o-y

Target credit growth for 2017 ▲ 21% y-o-y

“While the short-term outlook is pretty decent, risks

are building. In particular, we are increasingly

concerned by the rapid increase in debt.”

Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital

Economics Ltd.

Source: Bloomberg, General Statistics Office Of Vietnam.

3

E C O N O M Y

Economic Highlights

FDI: $25.5 billion

▲ 34% y-o-y

into Real Estate:

4.5% of total FDI

New Real Estate

Business Licence:

3,500

▲ 62% y-o-y

Retail Turnover:

VND2,917 trillion

(~US$128 billion)

▲ 9% y-o-y real growth

Note: Data recorded for 9M 2017

4

E C O N O M Y

First-timers in Vietnam

5

E C O N O M Y

Bright Outlook for Vietnam’s Tourism

6

Ho Chi Minh City to auction

investment packages in

Vietnam’s largest stadium

CAPITAL MARKET

7

I N V E S T M E N T

8

Source: Newspaper articles retrieved on 25 September 2017.

I N V E S T M E N T

Private Equity Investment in Q3 2017

Source: Newspaper articles retrieved on 25 September 2017.

9

I N V E S T M E N T

Private Equity Investment in Vietnam

Top PE investment by sector

in 2016 and 2017Investment

Real estate US$613.5 million

Retail US$328.8 million

Education US$211 million

Finance US$85.4 million

Technology US$66 million

Infrastructure US$60.2 million

Entertainment US$42.5 million

Source: Deal Street Asia, retrieved on 25 September 2017.

FundProject/

CompanyValue Year

EXS Capital Son Kim LandUS$46

million2017

China Fortune

Land

Development

Dai Phuoc

Lotus

US$64

million2017

Warburg Pincus,

Vinacapital

Sofitel Legend

Metropole

Hanoi

US$100

million2016

AON, Mirae

AssetLandmark 72

US$382.5

million2016

10

Major Real Estate PE Investment

Vina Square My Gia Township Otis Hotel

City HCMC Nha Trang Nha Trang

Land use Mixed-use Residential Hotel

Land area 30,000 sm 60,000 sm 4,000 sm

Seller/ Developer VinaLandVinaLand

(50% interest)Confidential

►►Buyer Tri Duc Real Estate Confidential P.H Group

I N V E S T M E N T

Notable Transactions in Q3 2017: Development Sites

11

Source: Real Capital Analytics.

I N V E S T M E N T

Income Producing Assets and Development Sites Transactions

Disclaimer: Transactions include deals above US$10 million. Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to

be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to

confirm independently its accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the

material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE.

Source: CBRE Vietnam, RCA.

Vietnam Investment Volume

0

10

20

30

40

50

-

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 9M 2017

No. of transactions

Transaction value (U

S$

m

illion)

Commercial Mixed use Residential No. of transaction

12

9M 2017:

foreign

buyers

made up

68%

transaction

value

I N V E S T M E N T

Vietnam Asset Management Company

VAMC seizes collateral of Saigon One Tower

VAMC, Sacombank sign

contract to settle bad debt

VAMC calls for debt

settlements of 8 plots of

Hoan Cau Group

Source: VAMC, retrieved from newspaper on 1 Oct 2017.

13

Audit pending projects

The Ministry of Finance proposed a list of 60 projects to be audited

INFRASTRUCTURE

14

I N F R A S T R U C T U R E

Hanoi: Metro Line No.2A - Delayed trial operation as scheduled in Oct 2017

Cat Linh

Station

Metro Line No. 2A

Cat Linh – Ha Dong

95% completed

Depot

Station

Yen Nghia Depot

Source: Images from Internet

Van Khe

Ring Road No.3

Royal City

Hoang Cau

15


Hanoi: Can New Bridges Unleash the Potential of Its Eastern Districts?

Current bridge

Future bridge

Residential supply by Q3

2017 – East of Hanoi

15,300 units

4,800 units

Residential supply by Q3

2017 – West of Hanoi

135,500 units

41,000 units

16


Hanoi: Upgrading Ring Roads to Create Greater Connection among Districts

Completed

Under-construction

Planned for new construction

1

1

5

5

3

3

4

4

2

Trung Kinh – Tran Duy Hung “The costliest road in the world” 0.5km – US$50 million

Planned for expansion

2

Source: Images from Internet

17


HCMC: More Bridges and New Roads to Push the East Further

HCMC authorities approved inter-ward

roads projects in District 9

The People's Committee of Ho Chi Minh City has approved the

construction of a road linking the inter-ward road (Huy Can

Street) to Do Xuan Hop Street, District 9 from the capital of residential project investors in the area.

From July 15, traffic will not be available on this route on Saturday and Sunday from 19:00 until 2:00 the next morning.

HCMC announce 1/500

master plan for Da Phuoc

depot of Metro line no.5

18


HCMC: Upgrading Ring Roads

19

Cat Lai Port

Current Container Truck Route

Future Container Truck Route

Under Planning

Completed

Road widening approved

OFFICE

20

O F F I C E

Q3 2017 Market snapshot

New Supply

Asking rents(*)

Vacancy

rate

Grade A Grade B

HANOI

No new supply No new supply

11.1% 16.0%

▼ -5.9% y-o-y

▼ -0.1% q-o-q

US$24.1psm pm US$13.7psm pm

▲ 8.6% y-o-y

▼ -0.1% q-o-q

▲ 1.4% y-o-y

▼ -0.2% q-o-q

▲ 1.2% y-o-y

▼ -1.4% q-o-q

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2017.

(*) Asking rents: US$ psm pm (exclusive of VAT, service charge)

HCMC

32,000 sm NLA No new supply

US$36.7psm pm US$20.7psm pm

6.6% 2.8%

▼ -5.5% y-o-y

▲ 1.1% q-o-q

▲ 3.9% y-o-y

▼ -1.4% q-o-q

▲ 2.3 ppts y-o-y

▲ 1.4 ppts q-o-q

0.0 ppts y-o-y

▼ -1.2 ppts q-o-q

21

Grade A Grade B

O F F I C E

Total Supply in Major Cities

Hanoi

1,233,462 sm

HCMC

1,144,267 sm

Da Nang

79,987 sm

Hai Phong

52,234 sm

(*) Total supply in NLA

Grade A and B Total Supply by City, Vietnam (NLA, sm)

Source: CBRE Vietnam, CBRE APAC, GSO.

Grade A Total Supply, Regional Cities (NLA, sm)

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

HCMC Hanoi Da Nang Hai Phong

Grade A Grade B

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

HCMC Hanoi Singapore Bangkok Tokyo Hong

Kong

22

O F F I C E

Hanoi: New Supply in 2017

Source: CBRE Vietnam.

Sun Square9,880 sm, NLA

Q1 2017

Horison Tower8,015 sm, NLA

Q1 2017

HUD Tower24,051 sm, NLA

Q2 2017

DSD Building14,000 sm, NLA

Q4 2017

Richy Tower

7,832 sm, NLA

Q4 2017

Eurowindows

13,274 sm, NLA

Q4 2017

Grade A

Grade B

O F F I C E

HCMC: New Supply in 2017

Saigon Centre P2

32,000 sm NLA

Q3 2017

Viettel

Complex

23,620 sm NLA

Q2 2017

Sai Gon Giai

Phong

8,800 sm NLA

Q1 2017

Etown Central

35,000 sm NLA

Q4 2017

24

Grade A

Grade B

O F F I C E

Outlook is Stabilizing

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

2015 2016 2017

Vacancy rates(%

)

Asking rents (U

S$

psm

pm

)

HCMCHANOI


Asking rents: US$ psm pm (exclusive of VAT, service charge) 25

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3

2015 2016 2017

Vacancy rate (%

)

Asking rents (U

S$

psm

pm

)

O F F I C E

Hanoi: Stable Absorption in Grade B

HCMC: Strong Net Absorption Because of New Supply

HCMC

-10,000

10,000

30,000

50,000

70,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2015 2016 2017

NLA

(sm

)

Grade A Grade B

HANOI

-10,000

10,000

30,000

50,000

70,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2015 2016 2017

NLA

(sm

)


Asking rents: US$ psm pm 26

O F F I C E

Regional Demand Comparison: Where is Vietnam?

Multinationals’ expected change in real estate portfolios over the next three years

Expansion by

Multinationals

Consolidation

Source: CBRE 2017 APAC Occupier Survey

Respondents’ Profiles: The CBRE 2017 Asia Pacific Occupier Survey incorporates the findings of a regional survey of multinational occupiers along

with four separate national surveys of domestic occupiers in China, India, Japan and Australia. A total of 450 responses were received. The analysis

in this report largely focuses on the responses received from the 50 multinational respondents. Respondents were senior executives responsible for

overseeing their organisation’s regional and / or global real estate portfolio.

27

O F F I C E

Sentiment Remains Positive among Decision Makers

EuroCham Business Climate Index for Vietnam, Q2 2017

Source: Eurocham, Q2 2017 28

O F F I C E

Demand: Relocation to Dominate the Market

79%

10%

12%

HA

NO

IH

CM

C

61%

7%

32%HANOI

HCMC

Finance/ Banking

21%

Manufacturing

18% - 24%

Real Estate

9%

Service

14%

Media

10%

29Source: CBRE Vietnam, based on CBRE’s enquiries, only

O F F I C E

Demand: Higher Demand for Large Floor Plate

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2015 2016 2017

< 100 sm 100 - 299 sm 300 - 699 sm 700 - 1000 sm > 1000 sm

HCMC

HANOI

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2015 2016 2017

30Source: CBRE Vietnam, based on CBRE’s enquiries, only

O F F I C E

Market Trend: Large Areas Attract Tenants

Professional Services

1,749 sm

IT

5,000 sm

IT

1,342 sm

Manufacturing

1,500 sm

E-commerce

4,000 sm

Manufacturing

1,274 sm

Viettel

Complex

Saigon Centre

P2Mapletree BC

Deutsches

Haus

HCMC

TNR TowerHorison

Tower

IT/Technology

2,300 sm

IT/Technology

1,600 sm

Banking

1,823 sm

HANOI

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2017

Grade A

Grade B

O F F I C E

Co-Working Space: Becoming the Big Boy’s game within APAC and Global

Share of Co-Working Space who

Anticipates a strong increase in …

0% 20% 40% 60%

Members

Income

Sense of

Community

Events

CWS 18 months & older

CWS Up to 17 months older

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2017 32

O F F I C E

Co-Working Space in Vietnam: On the way to catch up

Estimated number of co-working centres and the percentage run by local operators

0

50

100

150

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Beijing India (Tier 1

cities)

Shanghai Singapore Hong Kong Sydney

% local operators Estimated total number of co-working centres

Source: 2017 The Evolution of Co-Working in

Asia Pacific; CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2017

0%

100%

200%

300%

0

10

20

30

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q3

2017

Grow

th rate (%

)

No. of venues

HCMC Hanoi Growth Rates

No. of co-working venues by year in Vietnam

33

O F F I C E

Market Outlook - Supply

HCMC

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

New

Supply

(N

LA

sm

)

HANOI

FORECAST

34

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

New

Supply

(N

LA

sm

)

No new

Supply


O F F I C E

Market Outlook – Net Absorption and Vacancy Rate

HCMC

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

HANOI

35

FORECAST

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Vacancy Rate (%

)

Net A

bsorption

(N

LA

, sm

)


INDUSTRIAL AND

LOGISTICS

36

I N D U S T R I A L & L O G I S T I C S

Quality Supply Increases - Especially Foreign Invested Industrial Parks

Thang Long III Industrial park

Vinh Phuc

By Sumitomo Corporation

VSIP III Industrial park

By Sembcorp

Binh Duong

1,000 ha

213 ha

By Hemaraj

Hemaraj Industrial City

3,200 ha

37

Nghe An


Foreign Direct Investment

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

HC

MC

Thanh H

oa

Bac N

inh

Nam

D

inh

Binh D

uong

Ha N

oi

Kien G

iang

Dong N

ai

Tay N

inh

Hai Phong

Bac G

iang

Binh Phuoc

Quang N

gai

Ba Ria

- V

ung Tau

Long A

n

Registered FD

I (m

illion U

S$

)

Top 15 provinces by total registered FDI (8M 2017)

Source: Ministry of Planning and Investment.

38


DEMAND - Automotive, Electronics and Textile

HCMC

Quang

Ngai

Hai Phong

VINFAST – 335ha

Area Industrial

park

Site area

(ha)

Company Industry

North 335 Vinfast Automotive

Trang Due 1.5 KR EMS Electronics

Dinh Vu 2.7 Top Solvent Oil & Gas

Central VSIP Quang

Ngai

14 Hebei

Xindadong

Textiles

Textile

VSIP Quang

Ngai

8 Wanex Furniture Furniture

South VSIP II 8 Tata Coffee F&B

Hiep Phuoc 7 CJ Cau Tre F&B

Major transactions


Rents

Land rental by province and compared to regional (USS/sm/term)


*Term: 40-50 years 40

Region

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

HC

MC

Binh D

uong

Dong N

ai

Long A

n

Quang Tri

Thua Thie

n H

ue

Da N

ang

Quang N

am

Quang N

gai

Bac N

inh

Hanoi

Bac G

iang

Hai D

uong

Hai Phong

Hung Yen

Philippines

Cam

bodia

Indonesia

East Bangkok


Rents

Ready-built-factory by Province and compared to regional (US$/sm/month)


41

Region

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

HC

MC

Binh D

uong

Dong N

ai

Long A

n

Da N

ang

Quang N

am

Quang N

gai

Bac N

inh

Hanoi

Bac G

iang

Hai D

uong

Hai Phong

Hung Yen

Philippines

Cam

bodia

Indonesia

East Bangkok


Northern Areas – Road and Rail Links to Seaports

Upgrade Hanoi - Hai Phong – Ha Long

Quang Ninh IPs

Under Planning Ninh Binh – Hai Phong – Quang Ninh, Noi Bai – Ha Long

Quang Ninh port

Provide more options in transporting goods

2018

2020 - 2030

42

Hai Phong PortNoi Bai

International Airport


Southern Areas – Road and Rail Links to Seaports

43

OPTIONS AGAINS

SEARCH RADIUS &

MAJOR INFRASTRUCTURE

Cai Mep PortHiep Phuoc Port

Ben Luc - Long Thanh Highway

(58 km, 8 lanes, 2019)

Cat Lai Port

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

0

1

2

3

4

5

2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

% G

row

th

Y-o

-Y

Ren

ta

l ra

te (U

S$

/sm

/m

on

th

)

Rents -South Rents - North

Rental Growth - South Rental Growth - North

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

% G

row

th

Y-o

-Y

Ren

ta

l ra

te (U

S$

/sm

/term

)

Land Rents - South Land Rents - North

Rental Growth - South Rental Growth - North


OUTLOOK

Industrial land, Rental rate forecast RBF, Rental rate forecast

Forecast Forecast

Source: CBRE Research

South provinces: HCMC, Long An, Binh Duong, Dong Nai.

North provinces: Bac Ninh, Bac Giang, Ha Noi, Hai Phong, Hung Yen, Hai Duong.

Demand driving factors

Continue from traditional sectors

And from rising sectors

Agriculture Retail & consumer

goods

Manufacturing

Automotive &

Motorcycle

ElectronicsE-commerce

RESIDENTIAL

MARKET

LUXURY: >US$3,500 psm

HIGH END: US$1,500 - $3,500 psm

MID END: US$800 – $1,500 psm

AFFORDABLE: <US$800 psm

45

C O N D O M I N U M

Q3 2017 Market Snapshot

New Launches

Primary Price (*)

Sold units

Other SegmentsHigh-end


(*) Primary Price is average asking price of actively-for-sale projects,

reflecting new projects’ pricing level. Price is exclusive of VAT and maintenance fee

46

HANOI

6,817 units

▲ 32% y-o-y

▲ 19% q-o-q

US$1,044 psm

▼ -10% y-o-y

▲ 1% q-o-q

4,059 units

▲ 19% y-o-y

▲ 24% q-o-q

1,480 units

▼ -45% y-o-y

▼ -38% q-o-q

US$1,962 psm

▼ -3% y-o-y

▼ -1% q-o-q

1,381 units

▼ -26% y-o-y

▲ 1% q-o-q

HCMC

▼ -2% y-o-y

▼ -14% q-o-q

5,963 units

US$1,244 psm

▼ -27% y-o-y

▼ -7% q-o-q

5,109 units

▼ -11% y-o-y

▼ -29% q-o-q

▼ -23% y-o-y

▼ -31% q-o-q

1,822 units

US$2,175 psm

▲ 10% y-o-y

▲ 5% q-o-q

2,098 units

▼ -3% y-o-y

▼ -8% q-o-q

Other SegmentsHigh-end

Sold Units: High Absorption Rate in Newly Launched Projects

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000


2015 2016 2017

No. of Sold U

nits


C O N D O M I N I U M

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000


2015 2016 2017

No. of Sold U

nits

HCMCHANOI

47

40%

39%

35%

81%

77%

84%

Absorption Rate

in Newly

Launched Project

in Q3 17

New Launch: Mid-end segment continues to expand


*Accumulated supply from 1999 to Q3 2017.


2%

29%

39%

30%

Mid-end

85,559 units

Mid-end

37,335 units

1%

27%

32%

40%

CAGR (Mid-end) = 35%

CAGR (Market) = 25%

HCMC

0%

24%

47%

29%

1%

25%

50%

25%

Mid-end

112,448 units

Mid-end

64,361 units

CAGR (Mid-end) = 22%

CAGR (Market) = 20%

HANOI

As of 2014 As of Q3 2017

48


Hanoi - West and South West Continue to Supply Majority of New Stock

49

BA DINH

TAY HO

HOAN KIEM

DONG DAHAI BA TRUNG

LONG BIEN

HOANG MAI

CAU GIAY

TU LIEM

DONG ANH

HOAI DUC

HA DONG

THANH TRI

GIA LAMTHANH XUAN

WESTLAKE

9

67

4

3

3

1

1

18,297 units launched in Q3 17

(The West: 33%

The South West: 27%)

from 38 projects

The Emerald

My Dinh – 60% sold

PentStudio

– 55% sold

2

HUNG YEN

Aquabay Grand

Park – Tokyo Touch

– 70% sold


• Bubble size: size of new launch supply in that district

• Number in the bubble illustrates the number of projects launched in the period


HCMC: New Launches Continue to Focus on the South and the East

5

1

1

5

2

3

2

2

D’Edge – 100%

sold

Tilia Residences – >95%sold

7,651 units launched in Q3 17

(The South: 50%;

The East: 37%)

from 21 projects

Topaz Elite – 90% sold

50Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2017

• Bubble size: size of new launch supply in that district

• Number in the bubble illustrates the number of projects launched in the period


Pre-sale Activities – High Interest from Buyers

Dragon Riverside city – District 5

Mizuki Park – Binh Chanh District

Masteri An Phu – District 2

Q2 Thao Dien – District 2

Over 50%

reserved

51

On Time Delivery is Highly Appreciated


Buyers directly monitor

the progress of the

project

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

Vingroup

Thao D

ien

Investm

ent

Phu M

y H

ung

Novaland

TN

R

An G

ia

Vietcom

real +

Tien Phat

Phat D

at

Units

Handover in 9M2017, HCMC

* In selected projects


8,818 units were handed over in Q3 2017,

increasing by 38% y-o-y

Handover in 9M2017, Hanoi

9,408 units were handed over in Q3 2017,

decreasing by 32% y-o-y

52

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

Vin

gro

up

TNR

Ho

ldin

gs

HB

I - M

.I.K

Vin

aenco

Vie

t H

ung

CIR

I

Thu

Do

Inv

est

.

Uni

ts

Primary Price - Small adjustments across segments

Primary price calculated on NSA and without VAT


$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2015 2016 2017

Asking price

(U

S$ psm

)


$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2015 2016 2017

Asking price

(U

S$ psm

)

Luxury:

▼ -1% q-o-q

High-end:

▼ -1% q-o-q

Mid-end:

▼ -2% q-o-q

Affordable:

▲ 1% q-o-q

Luxury:

0% q-o-q

High-end:

▲ 5% q-o-q

Mid-end:

▼ -3% q-o-q

Affordable:

▲ 2% q-o-q

HCMC

HANOI

53

Foreign Buyers

Foreigners may be allowed to deposit savings in Vietnam

Foreigners to be allowed to own houses in Vietnam for up to 99 years

Ministry proposes permanent residence cards for foreign

investors on Phu Quoc


Under this circular, legal foreign persons present in Vietnam in the form of branches, representative

offices, executive offices, operation offices, diplomatic missions and consular representations can

deposit under certain terms to serve their activities in Vietnam as non-residents.

Non-residents are individuals who are present in Vietnam, including foreigners residing in Vietnam

for less than 12 months; foreigners studying, treating diseases, traveling or working for

representative offices, executive offices, operation offices, diplomatic missions and consular

representative agencies of foreign legal persons in Vietnam.

Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc has said it is necessary to create a special legal

framework to attract investment in special zones.

A draft law will allow foreigners to own houses for up to 99 years and allow mortgaging of

assets associated with land-use rights at foreign credit institutions, which is in line with the

2013 Constitution

Vietnam may issue permanent residence cards to foreign investors on Phu

Quoc Island under a draft law on special administrative zones submitted to the

government by the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI)

54

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

New

Launch

(units)

Market Outlook - Supply



HCMC

HANOI

55

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

New

Launch

(units)

FORECAST

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Sold units

Market Outlook – Absorption



HCMC

HANOI

FORECAST

56

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Sold units

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

F

20

18

F

20

19

F

Percentage change (%

)

Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable

Market Outlook – Primary Pricing


Note: (1) Base year is 2005 (2) No luxury project in Hanoi until 2011


HCMC

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%2005

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

F

20

18

F

20

19

F

Percentage change

(%

)

HANOI

FORECAST

57


Key Takeaways…

Competitive Rental Market

Upcoming handovers of completed units will lead to growing competition

on the rental market. Buy-to-let investors should watch out

Expansion of Mid-end Segment

Opportunities for developers to differentiate

Continued Good Absorption

High-end offerings at prime locations still have good absorption.1

2

3

58

Hanoi: New Supply Keeps Increasing in the West

L A N D E D P R O P E R T I E S

New launches, 2015 – Q3 2017

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000


2015 2016 2017

Units

Villa Terraced Shophouse

West50%

South West0%

South13%

East27%

North10%

Core

districts

Accumulated launches, YTD 2017


622 sold units

▼ 78% y-o-y

▼ 52% q-o-q

Primary Price

US$3,685 psm

▲ 27% y-o-y

▼ 1.2% q-o-q

1,055 units

in Q3 2017

▼ 44% y-o-y

▲ 224% q-o-q

2,619 units

YTD 2017

59% of 2016

New

la

un

ch

Primary price is based on land area, included construction cost and VAT

59

Hanoi: New Supply Keeps Increasing in The West


Louis City

599 units

US$2,800 psm

Park City

146 units

US$4,800 psm

233 units

US$2,500 psm

The Eden Rose

77 units

US$3,500 psm

GamudaGardens

60

Louis City The Mansions The Eden Rose Iris Home

Ha Dong district: ▼7% q-o-q: US$2,900 Thanh Tri district:

▲ 4% q-o-q: US$1,800

Hoang Mai district: ▼ 7% q-o-q:US$3,200

Q-o-Q Changes are based on secondary prices in

districts that had new launches in the review quarter

Hanoi: Outside the Center, the West Drove the Market in terms of Sold

Units and Secondary Prices


Sold units, 2016 – YTD 2017 Secondary prices, 2016 – YTD 2017

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2016 2017

Units

West East South North Center

West

Source: CBRE Vietnam.Source: CBRE Vietnam.

$3,793

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2016 2017

West South

North East

Market Average

Resale

price

Cau

GiayTay Ho

Bac Tu

Liem

Long

BienThanh Tri

Thanh

Xuan

Nam Tu

LiemDong Da

Hoang

MaiHa Dong

Market

Average

Q-o-Q

Change

0.4% 0.4% 1.4% 1.5% 4.1% 1.7% 2.0% 3.9% 6.9% 7.1% 3.3%

Y-o-Y

Change

1.7% 4.7% 7.4% 1.3% 8.4% 8.9% 3.4% - 2.7% 2.3% 6%

Secondary price is based on land area, included construction cost and VAT

Future Supply – Further Launches from Existing Projects


62

Lakeside Splendora

• Hoai Duc District

• 77 villas

Starlake THT – Phase 2

• Tay Ho District

• Villas, Terraced and

Shophouse

Future Supply, Q4 2017

Starlake THT – Phase 2

• Tay Ho District

• Villas, Terraced and

Shophouse

Vinhomes The Harmony

• Long Bien District

• 493 units (next launch)

The Manor Central Park

• Hoang Mai District

• ~500 units (2017)

The Manor Central Park

• Hoang Mai District

• ~500 units (2017)


HCMC: Most new launches from small-scaled projects

North9%

East71%

West11%

South9%

Central

Accumulated launches, YTD 2017 New launches, 2015 – Q3 2017

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

Villas

Townhouses

Shophouses

2015 2016 2017

563 sold units

▲ 2% y-o-y

▼ -31% q-o-q

Primary Price

US$3,069 psm

▲ 20.5% y-o-y

▲ 11.8% q-o-q

454 units

New launches in

Q3 2017

▼ -35% y-o-y

▼ -38% q-o-q

63Source: CBRE Vietnam.

1,720 units

YTD 2017

62% of 2016


HCMC: New Launches at Different Price Segments

Rosita Khang Dien

118 units@ District 9

US$1,740-1,870

Dien Thuan Star Hill


US$2,500

Simcity


US$1,460

Citadel


US$3,300

Van Xuan Dat Viet

72 units@ Binh Tan

US$2,300-2,500

D.9:US$1,700-1,900

▲ 2-7% q-o-q

PMH:US$3,800-5,700

▲ 2% q-o-q

Binh Tan:

US$1,600-2,600

D.12:US$1,000-2,500

▲ 3-4% q-o-q

D.2:US$3,000-10,000

▲ 10-15% q-o-q (*)

(*) Thu Thiem and vicinity.

Change in asking price in

secondary market

64


HCMC – Future Supply of Many Large Scale Townships

Thu Thiem Area:

HongKong Land

CII

SonKim Land

Thanh My Loi:

Hung Thinh

Novaland

Tien Phuoc

Nha Be:

GS Nha Be

District 9:

Vingroup

District 7:

Sunny World

Binh Chanh:

Nam Long

Khang Dien


Key Takeaways…

Good absorption rate

Absorption rate is expected to remain positive, especially at year end, despite lowering

new launches so far in 2017

City widespread development

Bettered connectivity across the districts would bring quality townships to untapped

locations.

Notable large-scale future supply

Large scale future supply from existing township developments.1

2

3

RETAIL MARKET

67

R E T A I L

Cost Escalation and Unclear Economic Prospects Remain Key Concerns

Source: How Active Are Retailers in Asia Pacific, June 2017.

68

TRADITIONAL REFINED STRATEGYFLAGSHIP STORE + SATELLITE STORES

Flagship store to focus on in-store experience and

brand promotion

Satellite stores to focus on

efficiency

R E T A I L

Most Fashion Retailers are Focused on Improvement of Sales Efficiency

Source: CBRE Research, January 2017.

69

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Coffee andRestaurants

Specialist Clothing Mid Range Fashion Luxury and Business Value and Denim

2015 2016 2017 H1

(Sports, Footwear)

F&B and Sporting Goods Retailers Drove Activity

% of N

ew

Retail Entrants

Source: CBRE Research, August 2017.

R E T A I L

70

Rapid Growth of Fast Fashion Brands over the Past Few Years…

2011 2016%

Change2011 2016

%

Change

Inditex 5,044 7,013 +39% 482 1,041 +116%

H&M 2,472 4,351 +76% 104 677 +551%

GAP 3,246 3,721 +15% 183 372 +103%

Fast Retailings 2,088 3,160 +51% 1,119* 1,682 +50%

American Eagle

Outfitters1,111 1,221 +10% - 86 N/A

A&F 1,069 935 (13%) 7 45 543%

Esprit 1,141 761 (33%) 627 467 (26%)

R E T A I L

ASIA PACIFICGLOBAL

* Figures as at 2012

Source: S&P Capital IQ, Corporate Information, May 2017.

71

Store Presence of major fashion brands

R E T A I L

They are Rationalizing Store Networks in Established Markets…

Australia

Singapore

Hong Kong

Japan

Korea

Source: CBRE Research, May 2017.

Brand Market Details

Forever 21Hong

Kong

Relocated its flagship from

Causeway Bay to Mongkok

ZARA TokyoExpanded the flagship

store by 900 sq.m.

UNIQLO SingaporeOpened the 1st flagship in

Southeast Asia

H&MHong

Kong

Opened the largest

flagship in Asia

At the same time, upgrading and relocation of

flagship store continues…

72

Major exits/closures by mass fashion brands in 2015 - 2016

2011 2016 2011 2016 2011 2016 2017

Inditex 3 21 7 21 0 1 5

H&M 0 12 0 12 0 0 1

R E T A I L

…but Expanding in Under-represented Markets Now

Source: Inditex Group, H&M Group, Inside Retail, The Hindu Business Line May 2017.

73

R E T A I L

Retailers Respond to the Market

Old NavyH&M

Both Hanoi and

HCMC

HCMC only

Massimo Dutti Pull & Bear Stradivarius

Source: H&M official site, Inside Retail Asia, Google Images

74

R E T A I L

Developers Respond to the Market

Source: Inside Retail Asia, The Saigon Times, Google Images

75

Thuan Kieu Plaza Garden Mall Crescent Mall Phase 2

Vincom Centre Ba Trieu

The Vista Walk Oxygen Mall

R E T A I L

One of the Major Challenges in Vietnam is the Lack of Quality Supply

Hanoi

788,053 sm

HCMC

845,765 sm

Da Nang City

68,675 sm

Nha Trang City

40,300 sm

Ba Ria Vung Tau

60,400 sm

Can Tho

60,200 sm

Hai Phong City

50,000 sm

Ha Long City

91,000 sm

Note: Total supply in NLA includes shopping centres, department stores, commercial retail podium, excluding stand-alone supermarkets, hypermarkets, wet markets etc.

Source: CBRE Research, CSO.

0 2 4 6 8

Phnom Penh

Hanoi

HCMC

Singapore

Bangkok

Millions

Retail Stock (sqm)

76

R E T A I L

Key Trends to Drive Retail Development in Vietnam

Construction of Metro Lines

Expansion of Middle Class

Rise of Millennials

77

78

Expanding toward developing residential and infrastructure areas

R e t a i l

CBD

East:

Already established

standalone large

scale shopping

malls

South and South West:

Largest supply cluster

Growing residential projects

and population

New CBD

Booming developments

Improving infrastructure

North:

New developing cluster

Ring road 3

Line 2A

Line 3

R E T A I L

New Metro Lines to Drive Retail Expansion

SUOI TIEN

NGUYEN VAN LINH

AN SUONG

PHU LAM

TAN KIEN

HIEP BINH PHUOC

BA QUEO

CAN GIUOC

BEN THANH HUB

East: City’s focus.…booming residential…connecting infrastructure

South and South West: …. Expanding of Phu My Hung… Large available land bank

North:…mostly in already populated areas

Source: CBRE Research, September 2017. 79

R E T A I L

Middle Class Population will be Much Bigger

Households earning US$10,000 or above per year

80

R E T A I L

More People will Trade Up in Their Consumption

Source: Google Images 81

R E T A I L

There are 17 Million Millennials in Vietnam

Source: Oxford Economics, September 2017.

0 10 20 30

Below 20

20 - 29

30 - 39

40 - 49

50 - 59

60 or above

Millions

POPULATION IN VIETNAM

Source: CBRE Research, Asia Pacific Millennial Survey, October 2016

82

R E T A I L

Younger Generation to Drive Retail Trends

They are aspiring for…

Healthy eating

Active Lifestyle

Fun & Entertainment

…and kids

Source: Google Images, CBRE Research, Asia Pacific Millennial Survey, October 2016

83

R E T A I L

Key Takeaways…

Strategic Portfolio Planning

Retailers may look for quality supply in up-and-coming neighborhood;

Ongoing refinement in shopping centres’ tenant mix

Tap on the long term growth potential

Rise of middle class and millennials

Steady market performance

More international brands to arrive1

2

3

84

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For more information regarding this presentation please contact:

CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd. – Research & Consulting

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proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from materials

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