Hard Times in Lives: From Great Depression

to Great Recession

Glen H. Elder, Jr.Carolina Population CenterThe University of North Carolina at Chapel Hillhttp://www.unc.edu/~elder

Studying Hard Times in LivesMiddletown, USA

Marienthal, Austria

What about “enduring effects?” Limitations of a survey

A new kind of study launched in the 1920-30s; longitudinal in design. A kind of “Hubble telescope of the social sciences.”

Basic Model:Children of the Great Depression

Relative Economic Deprivation (‘29 vs. ‘33)In Middle & Working Classes (’29)

Family Adaptations and Change, 1930-40s

Impact on Children & Adolescents

Adult Life Course Adult Behavior & Personality1940s – 80s 1960s – 80s

Oakland and Berkeley cohort members by age at historical events

Date Event Oakland Berkeley

1929-30 Onset of Great Depression 9-10 1-2

1932-33 Crisis of Great Depression 11-13 3-5

1937-38 Economic Slump 16-18 8-10

1941-45 World War II 20-23 10-12

1974 End of affluent age 54- 46-

Age of cohort members

A Footnote on Emerging Debt Pattern“Way of Life” 1920s – 2009

• 1920s – Paul Douglas’ Observation – Growth of this way of life

• Depression consequences of indebtedness – loss of home, car

• Post WWII – Credit cards – Diners, American Express, etc.

• Popularity of credit card purchases

Origins of Agricultural Crisis, USA; 1970-1995

• Rising world-wide demand for food. Inadequate production.

• Midwest banks encourage young farmers to expand acreage. Offer much larger loans.

• Farm expansion – “from hedgerow to hedgerow.”

• Embargo of grain shipments to Soviet Union, 1979-80

• Economic crisis in farm belt – housing starts and retail sales decline by 55%. Farm bankruptcies soar.

Farm foreclosure sale in Iowa [65684(8)]. 1933. Retrieved July 21, 2009 from the Franklin D. Roosevelt Presidential Library and Museum

website. http://www.fdrlibrary.marist.edu/images/photodb/27-0851a.gif.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

1977 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992

Year

Per

cen

t

U.S.Des Moines

Study Area

Source: U.S. Census

Building Permits Issued in Study Area,Des Moines, and the U.S. (1977=100)

Hard times 1994, view of a grandmother: “It’s been hard for a lot of our families these last years, and I don’t see it really getting any better.”

Iowa Youth and Family Study

Design: 451 families with 7th grader and near sibling. Located in 8 counties in Iowa – excellent farmland. 1st Wave – 1989, up to present.

Iowa Youth and Family Study

Sample composition:

Full-time farm

Part-time farm

Displaced farm

Farm-reared only

Non-farm

Family ties to the land

Main story re children’s lives: Attachment to land Social Ties Social well-being, competence, and educational success.

20%

10%

10%

35%

25%

Children of the Great Recession:Some Perspectives

• Contextual variation – east to west, north to south, and rural to urban (e.g. southern Florida vs. the Carolina Research Triangle). Regional vs. family economic troubles – effects on both levels.

• What people bring to the new situation (in particular, context) – temperament, marital ties, gender, life stage.

• Alternatives at school leaving – extend education, be entrepreneurial, travel, temporary job.

• Double up with parents and sibs, or friends.

• Learn to “get along with less.”

glen_elder@unc.eduhttp://www.unc.edu/~elder